Monthly Archives: October 2020

Heed the POLITICAL Scientists

DISCLAIMER:  Nothing in the post suggests any of us can rest on our laurels.  Post card writers need to keep writing.  Intersection flag-wavers need to keep waving their flags.  Homeowners need to keep putting up Biden/Harris signs.  And community based groups of  Democrats, Republicans and independents like our “Amelia Island Good Troublemakers” need to keep reminding voters of all the reasons they are voting for Biden.  As Yogi Berra would remind us, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

In 1992, when Colorado Governor Roy Romer was chairman of the National Governors Association, he invited his son Paul (not yet a Nobel Laureate in Economics) to a meeting of the Economic Development and Commerce Committee which I staffed during my time with the organization.  It was in the middle of the high tech boom when some economists predicted the accelerating pace of U.S.  innovation would result in indefinite, recession-free growth.  Paul had a different point of view, simply stated, “The NEW economy still operates under OLD economy rules.”  As we learned twice in the next decade, he was right.

I have been thinking about Paul a lot recently, as I listen to journalists and pundits talk about the NEW politics of Donald Trump and how it makes it difficult to predict the status of the race.  As a trained political scientist, I find it useful to paraphrase Dr. Romer, “The NEW politics still operate under OLD politics rules.”  If I am right, I do not anticipate my own Nobel prize as there is not one for achievement in social science.  But if I am wrong, maybe someone will nominate me for the prize in Literature based on outstanding fiction.

Exactly which rules do I believe still apply and how do they impact the 2020 outcome.  Let’s take them one-by-one.

#1.  The indicator with the highest correlation to voter preference: “Is the country heading in the right direction?”

  • According to the RealClear Politics average of polls, as of October 13, 62.7 percent of Americans believe the country is on the “wrong track” while only 31.3 think we are on the right track.
  • The impact of these numbers on voter behavior increases when the election is a referendum on a sitting president seeking re-election or the party in power.

#2:  The indicator with the second highest correlation to voter preference: “Does the candidate care about people like me?”

  • A June, 2020 Pew Research Center survey found Biden held a 13 point lead 54-41 percent) over Trump on this factor.
  • This is the same factor that derailed Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2012, following the release of a video in which he implied he could never get the support of 47 percent of the voters, those he referred to as “takers.”
  • Trump’s inability to show a kernal of empathy for the victims of COVID-19 has likely widened that margin since June.

#3:  When there is an incumbent running for re-election, late deciders break for the challenger.

  • This is just common sense.  After observing the incumbent govern for four years, you are either with him or asking yourself, “Am I comfortable enough with the challenger to take a chance?”
  • Ronald Reagan passed that test in 1980 as did Bill Clinton in 1992.
  • Joe Biden faced the same questions going into the first presidential debate.  He needed to demonstrate two things.  He was not suffering from dementia, and he was not to the left of Fidel Castro.
  • According to polling since the debate, he aced the exam.  On the day of the debate, Biden’s projected margin of victory, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, was 5.9 percent.  Today it stands at 10.5 percent.

#4:   Manufactured October Surprises

  • Truly significant October surprises almost always emerge much earlier with new information in the closing days of the campaign merely reinforcing the original narrative.
  • Examples:  The futility of the Vietnam War in 1968.  Jimmy Carter’s inability to free the Iranian hostages before the 1980 election.  John McCain’s response to the increasing economic meltdown in 2008.  Jim Comey’s October letter to Congress resurrecting the year-long focus on Hillary Clinton’s emails.
  • In contrast, October “Hail Marys” generally come off as last-minute desperation, e.g. the fake letter about George W. Bush’s national guard status, and seldom move the needle.
  • Unlike anything ever seen, the Trump campaign has been running the shop all three shifts to manufacture a January, February, March, etc., surprise to bring down Joe Biden.  A charge of sexual assault.  Ukraine.  Domestic spying.  A lot of spaghetti on the floor.  Little if any on the wall.
  • In contrast, the front page story remains Trump’s handling of the pandemic.  And the most significant October surprise is likely to be no surprise at all.  The second wave spike in cases, hospitalizations and fatalities.

#5:   Voter Enthusiasm

  • The Trump campaign has claimed this to be their candidate’s strong suit.  Energizing his base to vote will overcome his deficit in the polls.
  • As pointed out in the October 8 post “It’s October! Surprise!“,  the numbers tell a different story.  The most recent polls continue to show a wider margin of victory for Biden among “likely voters” than “registered voters.”
  • This could actually have a bigger impact on Senate races, particular in states such as Montana, Arizona and Alaska.
  • Florida voting ends at 7:00pm on election day.  If early returns trend toward Biden, voters in western red states who anticipate the inevitable outcome might be even less willing to venture out to vote (especially if the northernmost states are in the midst of a coronavirus spike).
  • Lower turnout on election day increases the impact of early and mail-in ballot on the final outcome.  And early reporting suggests a huge Democratic advantage in pre-election day balloting.

A good campaign should be able to overcome one or two of these disadvantages heading into the final days before the election.  But not all five.  Maybe the spaghetti is not on the wall, but the writing may be.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

It’s October! Surprise!

 

After five plus years of Donald Trump as candidate and Oval Office occupant, it is hard to believe anything could be called a surprise.  Yet, Coronavirus-positive Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien promised there would be, not one, but a series of October surprises before the election was over.  Well, he was right!

Just eight days into October, the Trump campaign has provided what, in any normal world, would be considered one jolt after another.  The White House is now the “People’s Petri Dish.”  Both Donald Trump and Mike Pence violate their oaths of office to defend and protect the Constitution, refusing to confirm a peaceful transfer of power should they lose the election.  Trump declares contracting a disease which has killed more than 213,000 Americans is a “blessing from God.”  And just this morning, we learned Trump required physicians who treated him at Walter Reed Hospital in November 2019 sign a non-disclosure agreement (NDA), privacy already ensured under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) as White House doctor Sean Conley reminded us on Saturday.

Weird?  Unconventional?  Lacking transparency?  Absolutely.  Surprising?  Not so much.  But that does not mean there have not been October surprises.  Here are two examples.

Surprise #1: Voter Enthusiasm

The Trump campaign has argued for months the outcome in 2020 will be based on the quality of the vote, not the quantity.  I am not referring to anything related to the GOP’s efforts to suppress the vote by disqualifying significant numbers of potential Democratic ballots.  In this case, the issue is enthusiasm for the candidate, an argument perpetuated by the mainstream media.  Fortunately, the data suggest just the opposite.

Many of the polling organizations, particularly those that now engage in daily tracking, divide their respondents into  two categories.  For example, yesterday’s Fox News poll included 1,107 “registered voters” of which 1,012 self-identified as “likely voters.”  Among the registered voters, Biden held an eight point lead.  Surprisingly, among likely voters the margin jumped to nine percent. The same is true of the latest Ipsos survey.  “Registered voters?” Ten percent.  “Likely voters?” Twelve percent.

After personally working on way too many losing campaigns, there always comes a moment when “time for a change” means looking for your next career opportunity.  Based on White House leaks, it is clear the West Wing copiers are now running overtime as staffers replenish their supply of resumes.  (There is a PPE joke there somewhere, but I will leave that for another day.) Voters also know when it is over.  Especially when casting a ballot becomes a health risk.  When the candidate is self-destructing, why would anyone want to march into battle when the war is all but lost?

Ironically, it is the 2016 election which has sustained Democratic enthusiasm.  Not so much because blue-leaning voters are hell-bent on casting a ballot for Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.  Memory of the upset four years ago is the motivating force.  Come hell or highwater, these voters have vowed not to take anything for granted and will do whatever is necessary to deny Trump a second term.

Surprise #2: Trump Campaign Strategy

Last night Newsweek on-line ran an article with the following headline, “Trump Campaign Cancels Almost $7 Million Worth of TV  Ads in 3 Midwest States.”  To be specific–Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin–three states which the Trump’s advisors kept saying were critical to his re-election.  Every news outlet for the past 24 hours has presented this announcement as evidence the Trump campaign coffers are as depleted or worse as being reported since mid-summer.  In short, the Brad Parscale “Death Star” seems to have imploded for lack of fuel, much like Parscale himself.

After eight days of more attempts at political suicide than most candidates commit in a lifetime–the first debate, testing positive for COVID-19, scuttling COVID-19 relief–Trump added one more.  Was it the Dexamethasone talking?  It just did not make any sense, until you see what the campaign did with the recaptured funds.   They moved these resources to Arizona, Florida and Georgia.

I know, this still does not hold water.  Even with those three southern tier states, Biden still would secure more than the required 270 electoral votes.  But what if Trump’s goal on November 3rd has nothing to do with winning either the popular vote or an electoral college majority.  What if, instead, it is solely to create a viable case for a legal challenge of the results.

Trump’s hopes of a credible case of voter fraud depends on one thing, demonstrating states governed by Democrats made the difference in the outcome.  However, if Trump loses Arizona, Florida and/or Georgia, geopolitical doppelgangers of Trump’s America, that argument vanishes into the ether.  Especially if the three contested senatorial races in Arizona and Georgia also trend blue.  A rebuke of the last four years in states where the GOP has already done everything it can to make it as hard as possible for Democratic leaning voters to exercise their franchise would be fatal.

So what makes this a surprise?  For one of the few times in the past four years, it appears “Trump and the Psychophants” (great name for a band  with Don, Jr. as the front man) actually plotted a clear, reasoned strategy and have taken the tactical actions needed to implement it.

The only remaining question is whether this October surprise has any chance of becoming a November mega-surprise (or should I say a MAGA-surprise in which MAGA would mean “Making Americans Go Abroad”).  Stay tuned

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

The Road to Damascus

 

For those unfamiliar with the business case teaching method, it is grounded in similar training in medical and law schools.  Students are presented with the facts surrounding a management decision, analogous to intern rounds or moot court.  They analyze the situation and recommend a course of action.  From a grading perspective, there is no single right answer.  Assessment is based on the extent to which a student’s preferred option is supported by the facts.

Teaching case method is particularly rewarding if you have the principal, e.g. owner or executive, in the classroom for questions and answers following the Socratic debate over the possible options and analysis.  In one case during my years as a professor of entrepreneurship at Miami University, a student proposed a solution which had never crossed the business owner’s mind.  In response, the head of a product marketing company told the student, “I sure wish you had been there at the time.”

About Us - Johnsonville Foodservice

One of the most popular and illuminating cases about business management is “Johnsonville Sausage Co.” written by Harvard professor Michael J. Roberts.  Owner and CEO Ralph Stayer (photo) is faced with a decision whether to take on a new customer despite the current lack of production capacity.  While addressing the opportunity, Stayer has an epiphany about his management style.  Previously he considered such judgments to be executive prerogative.  However, in this case the decision process was more inclusive, from which he realized his history of micromanagement was holding the company back.

I never had the privilege of Stayer’s presence in my own classroom, but Harvard produced a video of questions and answers in one of Roberts’ classes.  During the give and take, the following exchange occurred.

STUDENT:  At what point did you become so enlightened?  Pre-1980, it seems like you had a pretty authoritarian shop there.  And now it appears you are diametrically opposed to your previous management style.  What caused your shift?

STAYER:  It’s a great question.  It really is.  I was on the road to Damascus and lightning hit me.  Knocked me off my donkey.  And when I came to, I was enlightened.

[Class laughs]

For those unfamiliar with Stayer’s reference to Damascus and the donkey, it is attributed to the conversion of Paul the Apostle described in The New Testament.  Prior to the crucifixion, Paul had been among those who persecuted early Christians.  On his way to Damascus, Paul (then known as Saul the Pharisee) was blinded by a light from heaven and heard a voice which asked why he would persecute the Lord.  Once in Damascus, his sight was restored after which he was baptized and became a follower of Jesus.

Why, this morning, did I choose to school readers on the likes of Ralph Stayer and Paul the Apostle?  Because modern day epiphanies do not require being thrown from a donkey by a bolt of lightning or hearing unseen voices.  More pedestrian omens serve the same purpose.  For example, following a heart attack, the patient makes significant lifestyle changes in diet and exercise.  Or the announcement by one’s own child to being gay precipitates a change of heart about marriage equality and LGBTQ rights.

Which brings me to 1:45 a.m. this morning when the news broke Donald and Melania Trump both tested positive for COVID-19.  As an agnostic, I cannot believe this was an act of God.  With adequate contact tracing, epidemiologists can pinpoint the source of transmission. Like any compassionate individual, I wish the first couple a quick and complete recovery.  But that does not stop me from questioning whether the White House responds to this medical event as a conversion opportunity.  Will Trump’s own experience deter him from further ignoring the experts and putting his own personal political fortunes ahead of the nation’s well being?

The choice is simple.  Trump can either be Paul the Apostle.  Or the jackass from which Paul was thrown.  As with any crisis, one can hope for the best, but must remain prepared for the worse.

POSTSCRIPT

Trump “psychophants” have flooded social media with calls for Joe Biden to immediately suspend his campaign while Trump is in quarantine.  How ironic this comes from the folks who have spent the last six months suggesting, just because blue states have had to lock down, there is no reason for red states to follow suit.

Or imagine the situation where one restaurant ignores CDC guidance and is closed down by local officials.  Under the above “Trump campaign principle,” all complying restaurants and bars should also suspend operations.

In which case, I have no doubt the Proud Boys would all come to D.C. armed to the hilt to “Liberate The Dubliner.”  For those unfamiliar with this Capitol Hill landmark, should you ever have the occasion to be on the corner of North Capitol and F Streets, stop in and order the fish and chips with a stein of Guinness.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Mr. Spock v. Dr. Spock

 

Every child has strengths and weaknesses, gifts and challenges. Loving means adjusting your expectations to fit your child, not trying to adjust your child to fit your expectations.

~Dr. Benjamin Spock/Baby and Child Care

You may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting.  This is not logical, but it is often true.

Mr. Spock/Star Trek, “Amok Time,” Season 2, Episode 1

The current divisions in America are much less based on a cancellation of culture as they are a clash of cultures represented by the above quotes.  Democrats and liberals are criticized for coddling behavior, or as Dr. Spock suggests, letting each person set his or her own agenda and priorities.  In contrast, Republicans and conservatives, more consistent with Mr. Spock’s philosophy, argue progressive goals may sound good but will lose their sheen in practice.

267 Benjamin Spock Photos and Premium High Res Pictures - Getty ImagesThe irony, of course, is this applies to everyone but (drum roll) Donald Trump.  Consider the story posted yesterday by the Associated Press, “Debate commission considering ‘changes’ to structure of debate after chaotic first.”  Instead of telling the petulant man-child who occupies the Oval Office, “Play by the rules or we’ll put you in time-out,” they must have consulted their copy of Baby and Child Care.  Their response could not be more Dr. Spock-like.  Since we cannot get the child to adjust to our expectations, let’s lower our expectations and adapt to the child’s behavior.

ISN'T IT DELICIOUS!: DELICIOUS Remembers: Our beloved Mr. Spock - Leonard Nimoy (1931 - 2015)In contrast, the proponents who have been saying “let Trump be Trump” got exactly what they wished for.  And what is their morning-after assessment?  Even though spineless Republican senators danced around Trump’s responsibility for the fiasco, they found, as Mr. Spock warned, the debate was not as pleasing as they wanted.

  • “It was awful.”/Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski
  • “It was exhausting.”/Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer
  • Trump needs to “restrain himself a little” in the next debate./Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe
  • “An embarrassment.”/Utah Senator Mitt Romney
  • “It was the least educational debate of any presidential debate I’ve ever seen.”/Maine Senator Susan Collins

Of course, Trump “psychophants” (term coined by former GOP strategist Steve Schmidt),  played the both sides card.  Yet, the record does not validate their opinion.  Joe Biden had previously appeared in two vice-presidential debates (2008 and 2012) sponsored by the commission.  And neither of those events were described with the same level of disgust expressed above.  The difference on this occasion?  The opponent.

But the Dr. Spock approach is not practiced solely by Trump apologists.  In August Real Time host Bill Maher closed the show with the following “New Rule.”

If Trump’s going to try to scuttle the Post Office, we need to fight back.  Don’t use the mail for anything but ballots until the election is over.

I agree we need to fight back.  How about demanding Congress provide the postal service with funds to upgrade services throughout the election cycle?  Or impeaching postmaster general Louis DeJoy for perjury?  Instead, Maher, a self-proclaimed bachelor-for-life with no children of his own, became a product placement for Dr. Spock’s Baby and Child Care.

Let’s not expect the post office to do it’s job as it has for 244 years.  Let’s inconvenience everyone else because the crybaby-in-chief is doing everything he can to suppress the 2020 turnout.  Maher would rather deny a birthday card from a grandchild to an elderly shut-in who has already suffered enough during the pandemic .  Or discourage an Ohio voter from sending a letter to Rob Portman demanding he grow a pair and denounce Trump’s assault on the integrity of the election.  In that case, it is time to change the title of the HBO program to Real Capitulation with Bill Maher.

If you don’t want to lie in the bed one of Trump’s undocumented immigrant employees has prepared for you, do not patronize one of his debt-ridden, bedbug-infested resorts.  Or as Mr. Spock said in “Errand of Mercy” (Season 1, Episode 26), “Curious how often you Humans manage to obtain that which you do not want.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP