Monthly Archives: July 2019

Eco-NO-mics

Economics

Prologue:  The solitude and serenity associated with walking a dog are supposed to clear your head to make room for the processing of new ideas.  This morning it backfired.  On our daily stroll to view the wild life on the creek behind our home, I wondered how the Democrats could make a case against Trump’s claim of unprecedented economic success, especially after a day when the Dow closed at an all-time high.  The answer:  Precedent.

Coming into the 2020 election, you can bet the farm Donald Trump and the GOP will be touting the over-stimulated economic growth over the past two years, focusing on two data points.  First, the U.S. stock indices are at an all time high even though the recent spike in stock prices is due to indications of a weaker economy and a pending Federal Reserve decision to further juice economic activity with lower interest rates translating into a reduced return on investments from bonds and other long term financial instruments.  The second is the fact, on Monday, the current economic expansion reached 121 consecutive months, the longest in the nation’s history.

I can see it now, White House and Republic National Committee (RNC) propaganda, “If you like economic growth, vote GOP.”  Call it the Larry Ellison effect.  Ellison started touting Oracle, the company he founded, as the world’s largest supplier of connectivity equipment before they were even in the top 10.  And enough potential customers, minus any proof otherwise, made Ellison’s words a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Such is the claim the GOP as the party of economic growth.  On Monday, Axios published a chart of the 12 post WWII economic expansions.  And once again, the facts (damn them) do not support the RNC’s or Trump’s claim.

  • There have been three expansions lasting more that 100 consecutive months since 1945.
  • The first (106 months) started in February, 1961 and lasted until December, 1969.  During that period John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were in the White House 95 of those 106 month.  It ended during the Nixon administration after only 11 months.
  • The second (120 months) began in March, 1991 and ended in March, 2001. Of the total time span, Bill Clinton accounted for 96 months  while George H. W. Bush and son W. made up the other 24 months.
  • The most recent and longest (currently 121 months) began one month after Barack Obama took office despite being handed the worst economy since the Great Depression (Donald, that’s what I call real carnage).  While the recovery may have been slower than some had hoped, it remained intact for the remaining 95 months of his presidency.  To date, the expansion has continued during Trump’s first 26 months in office.

Notice a pattern?  In each case, whether a Democratic president was handed the beginnings of an expansion (Clinton) or it started during their time in office (Kennedy and Obama), growth continued unabated for the following eight years.  The first two times they were handed over to a Republican administration (Nixon in 1969 and W. in 2001) the expansions vanished in 11 months and three months, respectively.  The verdict is still out on Trump, but signs suggest, if a Democrat is inaugurated on January 20, 2021, he or she will be handed a negative growth economy.

But Dr. ESP, anyone can make a case with anecdotal information.  Okay, try this on for size.  Since 1945, Democrats have held the White House for 384 total months of which 362 or 94.27 percent of the time there was a rise in gross domestic product (GDP).  In contrast, a Republican president has occupied the White House for 461 months during which GDP was positive for 343 months or 74.40 percent (including Trump’s 26 for 26 start).

Just imagine you were forced to choose one of two opportunities to double your life savings.  One choice had a 94.27 chance of success.  The odds of winning for the alternative are 74.40 percent.  Only a fool would select the latter.  QED.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Three Thoughts on the Fourth

Random Thoughts

 

Here are a few observations made during a 10-hour drive yesterday.

Salute to Ignorance

Image result for trump as three monkeys who see no evilOne of the virtues of Sirius XM is the ability to listen to one’s favorite cable news and talk shows while on the road.  However, yesterday we tuned out as much of the focus was on descriptions of Donald Trump’s “Salute to Me.”  As suggested by the above subtitle, based on a number of Trumpisms during the past week, Trump should replace his 2016 MAGA campaign slogan in 2020 with HNF-SNF-TNF (Hear no facts; see no facts, tweet no facts).  Consider the following evidence.

  • The so-called commander-in-chief bragged about the “new Sherman tanks” which would be on display around the Lincoln Memorial.  No one told him that the U.S. army has not ordered a new Sherman tank for more than a half-century much less the last ones in service were de-commissioned in 1957.  A la Dick Cheney, Trump will probably argue that you have to go to war, “Not with the army you want, nor the one you have, but with the one you had 50 years ago.”
  • Trump accused New York state attorney general Letitia James of doing Andrew Cuomo’s dirty work via politically motivated investigations of the Trump Organization and Trump Foundation.  Having been a life-long resident of New York, one would think Trump knows that the state attorney general is elected by popular vote, not appointed by the governor.  Guess he confused that situation with his selection of William Barr to be his personal consigliere.
  • In an interview with Fox Business News host Maria Bartiromo last Friday, Trump stated there was no graffiti or trash on the New York City streets until two years ago.  Or maybe he just couldn’t see it from the 26th floor of his golden tower.  What is even more damning is his saying New York was a utopia until he became president. So, I guess he’s telling us it’s his fault.  Maybe if he had not de-valued New York City taxes by his assault on state and local levies in the 2017 tax legislation, NYC might have more resources for sanitation.

And this was just in one five-day period.  So, what do you call Trump statements over a 144 day span?  GROSS ignorance.

Iran, But Could Not Hide

Speaking of ignorance, it is a close race between Trump and the national news media.  Just in case you missed the administration’s latest attack on the Constitution, the Washington Post reports Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and “senior defense officials” since we still do not have a Secretary of Defense are building a legal case to justify military action against Iran.  However, reporters and journalist seemed to have missed the fact this is probably just one more move in the Russian chess match to undermine the Atlantic alliance with Trump’s complicit assistance.

Imagine a Tom Clancy novel based on the following story arc.

  • Under the previous administration NATO negotiates an agreement that limits Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons for a minimum of 15 years in return for sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets in foreign banks.
  • Russia, upset with what appears to be the beginning of detente between Iran and the West, decides this is one more opportunity to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe.
  • Russia assists in the election of a new president who campaigns on leaving the agreement much to the displeasure of the European signatories.
  • But that is not enough.  Russia then encourages Iran to give its American puppet more reason to break from the NATO position.  Maybe have Iran attack a couple of oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz or even shoot down a U.S. drone.
  • Neo-conservative advisors to the American president, who Russian knows are anxious to start a war with Iran, now have more ammunition to convince their boss they are right.
  • European allies refuse to join the conflict and American once again takes unilateral action with limited assistance from second-tier nations who are promised financial rewards if they support the U.S. position.  Call it “the alliance of the bribed.”
  • Back home.  The Russian president is heralded as a genius.  Not only has he achieved his initial goal of undermining NATO, he has created more discord within the United States by tricking the president into committing more lives and resources to another unpopular Middle East conflict.

Oh, wait!  No need to wait for the novel.  It is already a television mini-series running on the nightly news.

Captain Jesus Luc Placard

When you drive through America’s bible belt, you cannot help but notice the billboards which ask “Who is Jesus?”  Having attended a AAA minor league baseball game in Norfolk, Virginia on Monday night, my first instinct was to reply, “I know. They must be referring to Jesus Sucre, the Tidewater Tides catcher and designated hitter.”

Any effort at humor was quickly replaced by more serious reflection on reports out of Clint and El Paso, Texas as well as Homestead, Florida concerning the treatment of infants and children in border patrol detention centers.  Who is Jesus?  Whether you believe in his divinity or not, such a thoughtful and compassionate teacher certainly is not someone who would approve of his followers turning a blind eye to the suffering of children.  Or to those who seek asylum (equivalent to the church’s honored tradition of “sanctuary”) and a better life for their families.

What’s more, I began to think about my experience driving through Europe in 2005 and Italy in 2010.  There were no billboards.  Yes, there were majestic cathedrals, modest village churches and religious icons everywhere, but those were not directed at me, the non-believer.  They were there as constant reminders to the flock of their shepherd’s values and their own responsibility to follow in his footsteps.

A better use of the money spent on trying to convince me there is only one path to salvation would have been to purchase soap and other hygiene products for the innocent infants and children incarcerated in wire cages.  Or even a billboard with a picture of the 7-year-old who died of a bacterial infection last December while in U.S. custody with the tag line, “Who is Jakelin Caal Maquin?” Or 2-year-old Wilmer Josué Ramirez Vasquez.  Or 16-year-old Juan de Leon Gutiérrez.  Or 8-year-old Felipe Gomez Alonzo.  Then, instead of “Who is Jesus?” hopefully everyone, especially many in the white evangelical community who refuse to speak out against the policies which precipitated these tragedies, will realize the more important question is, “What would Jesus do?”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Synchronicity Runs Deep

Culture

The title of today’s post is what you get if Carl Jung sang backup for Stephen Stills and Neil Young on Buffalo Springfield’s 1966 single “For What It’s Worth,” often mistakenly called by its opening line, “Something’s happening here.”  This past weekend synchronicity, Jung’s theory about the connection between seemingly unrelated events, did, in fact, run deeper than normal.  Sometimes that intersection is just interesting.  But at its most potent, it explains the inexplicable.

Image result for pat conroy literary centerThe first event was a visit to the Pat Conroy Literary Center in Beaufort, South Carolina during which we talked with one of the curators Will Balk, who previously owned the local bookstore where Conroy would hold his first signings after the release of each book.  His friendships included, not just Pat, but several of the author’s six siblings who occasionally visited his shop and now the Literary Center.

Not surprisingly, the most often asked question of family members is, “Was your father (Donald Conroy, the model for “the Great Santini”) really as bad as portrayed in the novel?”  According to Balk, they would reply, “It was 10 times as bad.”  His sister Kathy once said, “I would have loved to have had the father in that book, but that’s not who we had.” (Source: 2015 interview in the Charlotte Observer)  It was only after Pat’s youngest brother Tom committed suicide did Donald Conroy realize the physical and mental torture to which he subjected his children and its impact on their lives.

But there was another side of Donald Conroy.  He was a highly decorated Air Force fighter pilot.  And as my wife suggested on the ride back to Hilton Head after visiting the center, this was the environment in which he was most comfortable.  He could be himself and not be viewed as an aberration, or worse, “a monster.”  The strict order and discipline required of a fighter pilot were a better match for Donald Conroy’s core beliefs than the compassion and affection needed by his children.

Which brings me to the second event, the following exchange between CNN reporter Jim Acosta and Donald Trump during Trump’s visit Sunday to the demilitarized zone (DMZ) on the Korean peninsula.

Acosta: What is it with your coziness with some of the dictators and autocrats at these summits?
Trump: I get along with everybody, except you people … I get along with (Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin, I get along with Mohammed (bin Salman) from Saudi Arabia.

Like the Great Santini, Donald Trump is in his element when hobnobbing with the Putins, bin Salmans and Kim Jung Uns of the world.  They reinforce his personal moral (or some might say amoral) compass.   When Donald Conroy had a choice between being the best fighter pilot or best father, he gravitated toward the former because that was how he was hardwired.  Every time Trump has a chance to choose between behaving like an autocrat or a champion of democracy, he too chooses the former.  Like “Santini,” his circuits are permanently soldered.

What is perhaps the saddest commentary is the fact Donald Conroy never considered it a choice until it was too late.  Nor will Trump.  As Popeye always reminded us, “I am what I am and that’s all what I am.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP