So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.

~President Richard Nixon/November 3, 1969

In this excerpt from a televised address to the nation outlining his plan to end the war in Vietnam, Richard Nixon coined the phrase “silent majority.”  His target audience was Americans who rarely if ever spoke about politics, citizens he was convinced had voted for him the year before and would assure his re-election in 1972.   With the help of a divided Democratic Party and a weak nominee, Nixon made his re-election landslide an “I told you so” moment.

Every time I hear pollsters talk about the undercounted support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, I wonder if a “silent majority” will carry him to a second term in November.  Though my first thought always is, “Trump supporters are anything but silent.”  Which begged the question, “This time, could there be a pro-Harris silent majority not measured by the boisterous enthusiasm at every one of her rallies?”  But maybe, just maybe, it is more complicated than that.  What if, the polls are undercounting Harris’ support because, when it comes to being contacted by polling organizations they are not just silent.  They are also downright scared.

Consider the following evidence starting with the way protesters are treated differently at Trump and Harris rallies. There is a reason why you do not see pro-choice or pro-Palestinian advocates at a Trump rally. From the stage, Trump encourages his faithful fans “to knock the crap out of hecklers.”  He has even offered to cover their legal expenses if they are arrested and charged with physical assault. 

In contrast, Harris merely brushes them off as she did when two students began shouting “Christ is King” as she was telling a University of Wisconsin-Lacrosse audience how reversing Roe v. Wade endangered women’s health and lives.  She calmly told the protesters, “I think you’re at the wrong rally.  You must be looking for the smaller one down the street.”  The students surely anticipated the crowd’s disapproval.  However, they also knew their safety was not in danger.

Which brings me to the difference between polling and voting.  When you vote in Florida, an election official hands you a folder containing your ballot.  The folder is numbered, but the ballot is not.  When you separate the two and insert your ballot in the scanning device, the folder is laid aside.  At that point, your name is no longer associated with the scanned ballot and the privacy of your vote is protected.

Not so with polling operations.  When a worker for a polling organization calls you, their source is most often state or local voter registration lists.  And if they have your phone number, they also have your name and address.  More importantly, they seldom identify who they are working for.  And if they do, it is not an easily recognizable polling company such as Gallup.

Which begs a new question, “What are the potential consequences of providing information to a stranger who can then link your candidate preference to personal information?”  Any answer I might suggest pales in comparison to the range of options Donald Trump repeated multiple times this past week he might employ.  Anyone who challenges his authority or even simply disagrees with him is referred to as “the enemy within.” And Trump has said he might employ the National Guard, or if necessary, the U.S. Army to take care of his opponents.  Or drag them before a military tribunal as he threatened to do with Liz Cheney.  Or execute a general like Mark Milley for daring to converse with his Chinese counterpart to alleviate any possible miscalculation by either side during the chaos on January 6, 2021.

Bottom line.  Whenever I receive a call that begins, “Do you have a minute to give your opinion,” I simply hang up the phone.  Do I expect an armed militia will show up at my front door?  No.  But like former FBI director James Comey or his deputy Andrew McCabe, I do wonder if a Trump “Schedule F” (see page 80 of Project 2025) loyalist in the bowels of the IRS building will order my tax returns be audited.  Or whether a toady in the State Department invalidates my passport.  Or a mini-Trump in local government has my house re-assessed.

So, if you are wondering how can the polls possibly be so close, there are three possible answers.  One, there really is a majority of voters who think America would be a better place under authoritarian rule.  Two, changes in demographics and the absence of new pro-Harris voter registrants in the polling samples have skewed the results.  Or three, there is a silent, scared majority who decided it was prudent to just keep their powder dry and speak with their ballots rather than their voices.

For the nation’s sake and future, I am betting it is a combination of the second and third.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I had a dream which I shared with readers on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.  The finale of Kamala Harris’ and Tim Walz’ coming out party would be a live performance of Beyoncé’s “Freedom,” accompanied by Taylor Swift.  Privately, however, I lamented my fantasy trifecta which included Bruce Springsteen would never happen since “The Boss” had booked a concert in Pittsburgh that night.

The United Center in Chicago would be rocking, but it was not about the music.  It was each performer’s targeted message that confirmed the central theme of the Harris/Walz campaign.  The Democratic ticket knows success depends on the extent to which the campaign can energize two constituencies and narrow Donald Trump’s advantage with a third.

There is no question this is a “turnout” election.  At the top of that list are minorities and women.  And the biggest challenge is motivating younger members of these cohorts.  Swift is the messenger of empowerment for young women.  Likewise, in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement, Beyoncé is the oracle of African-American empowerment.  Who better to remind potential voters in these demographics that their aspirational paths are more easily traversed in an environment of hope and opportunity rather than one of hate and retribution.

However, that is not enough.  Every Democratic pundit constantly reminds us Harris cannot win if Trump’s margin among white voters, and especially white men, eclipses her advantage among traditional Democratic voters.  Which is why yesterday may have been the most important 24 hours in the last month of this election cycle.

It started with the joint appearance by Harris and Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Unlike so many of Harris’ rally, the audience was as vanilla as you’ll ever see at a Democratic event.  This historic event did something no previous rally or Harris TV appearance could do.  Because it was unprecedented, it HAD to be covered by all the media outlets.  And how did Cheney use this opportunity?  First, she delivered a civics lesson about the what her party used to stand for:  smaller government, lower taxes, a strong military and global leadership.  These are all the things she told us she looks forward to debating in the future.

And then, knowing that right-wing media were under-reporting evidence of Trump’s criminal acts in Jack Smith’s recent filing, Cheney shared critical excerpts with the those at the event and the television audience.” And then she put the last nail in the coffin.  Before lowering the hammer, she reminded us that once GOP candidates ran under the banner of “compassionate conservativism.”  Then BAM, no one who says “So what!” when he is told that his own vice-president is in harm’s way has a compassionate bone in his body.  According to Cheney, the only word to describe such behavior is “depravity.”

That was just Act I of this morality play.  As the Harris/Cheney love fest was winding down, Springsteen released a video in which he endorsed the Harris/Walz ticket.  It contained what may be the most subliminal, yet powerful message possible (below).

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are committed to a vision of this country that respects and includes everyone, regardless of class, religion, race, your political point of view or sexual identity.  That’s the vision of America I’ve been consistently writing about for 55 years.

He could have been more heavy-handed.  “You know why you come to my concerts and stream my albums.  You are drawn to the same things that inspired me to write the lyrics and compose the music.  A vote for Donald Trump is a denial of that bond between me the entertainer and you the audience all these years.”  But Springsteen respects his fans too much to insult their intelligence.

I still dream of Beyoncé, Swift and Springsteen on stage together.  But if it comes the night Harris is declared the winner or at an inaugural concert on the Washington mall, I am okay with that.  It is now up to us ensure it happens.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

P.S.  I confess, Springsteen was never on my playlists, and  I could not name more than two of his songs.  But, as I write this post, I have been listening to a live recording of his December 14, 2023 concert in Boston.  And I was inspired.  So, as the title of today’s post says, “Better late than never.”

On June 26, 1963, John F. Kennedy stood in front of the Berlin Wall and declared, “Ich bin ein Berliner.”  The message was simple.  All freedom loving people across the globe must stand with residents of West Berlin in their struggle to remain independent and free while surrounded by territory dominated by the Soviet Union.

The title of today’s post goes many steps further.  Like many of you, I am outraged by the lies and disinformation spewed by Donald Trump and J.D. Vance to demonize immigrants who were recruited to work in Springfield, Ohio and are legally there under the Temporary Protected Status provisions of existing immigration law.  But it is more than sympathy.  It is brotherhood.  Why?  Because just as Donald Trump, during the September 10 debate, put a target on the backs of Haitian by falsely accusing them of inhumane acts, he did the same thing to Jewish-Americans during a speech at an event ironically advertised to stem the rising tide of anti-Semitism in the United States.

Trump pulled one of the oldest tricks in the book from his MAGA hat.  If there is anything you do not like, blame the Jews.  On September 20, at the Israeli-American Council National Summit, Trump told the largely Jewish audience:

If I don’t win this election – and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because if 40%, I mean, 60% of the people are voting for the enemy – Israel, in my opinion, will cease to exist within two years.

Let’s start with the facts.  Of the 15,590 respondents who made up the exit poll sample during the 2020 presidential election, only two percent identified as Jewish, a subset so small the consortium of news organizations which conducts the poll did not provide a Trump versus Biden breakdown.  They explained this with the following footnote.

Subgroups indicated with an n/a were interviewed for this exit poll, but the sample size may be too small for estimates within those groups to be projectable with confidence to their true values in the population.

More importantly, only two of the six swing states Trump lost in 2020 have a Jewish population higher than the national average of 2.4 percent, Pennsylvania (3.3) and Nevada (2.6).  The other four are Arizona (1.7), Georgia (1.3), Michigan (0.9) and Wisconsin (0.6).

Dr. ESP, why today?  Wasn’t the death of 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh already evidence enough that Jews were targets of MAGA anger?  Yes, but this was different.  The shooter in that case Robert Gregory Bowers acted because he believed the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, a Jewish-based non-profit “likes to bring invaders in that kill our people.  I can’t sit by and watch my people get slaughtered.” (Source:  Bowers post on social network GAB)  His anger was directed at what a Jewish organization did, not who they necessarily were.

Trump makes no such distinction.  He claims Jews do not appreciate everything he has done for them.  And ironically draws on the two most insidious tropes that fuel anti-Semitism.  One, Jews are more loyal to Israel than the United States.  Two, Jews are greedy, money-grabbers who would put personal wealth above democracy and the national interest.  He believes the role model for all Jewish voters is his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

That is who Donald Trump believes I should be.  And if he loses in November, it is my fault.  I am the enemy.  And though I cannot be picked out of a crowd by the color of my skin, I wonder if Governor Ron DeSantis, who already is sending his “election police” to the homes of Floridians who signed the petition to put abortion on the November ballot, is also taking names of homeowners who have a Harris/Walz sign in their yard and a mezuzah on the doorpost of their homes.

So today, not only am I a Haitian immigrant in Springfield, Ohio.  I am a Mexican-American shopping at a Walmart in El Paso.  I am a Black-American at Bible study at a church in Charleston, South Carolina.  And I am Amber Nicole Thurman and everyone else who is now a target of Donald Trump’s hatred, lies and lack of empathy.  Not because I am a Jew who is now on his “enemies list.”  Rather, as a Jew who was brought up in a tradition of “tikkum olam,”  the responsibility of all Jews to repair the world, not just for ourselves, but for all humanity.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Anyone who watched the “Philly Stake” debate on Tuesday night probably thinks picking the winner was, like one of the candidates on the stage, a “no brainer.”  So, how could I,  a self-described champion of counter-intuitive thinking, make a case that was not the case.  No, I’m not going to raise Donald Trump’s arm in victory.  But what if the real winner was not who outperformed his or her opponent, but how they did it.

The winner and new champion is “the field of psychology.”  Below is the evidence.

PSY-OPS

Much post-debate commentary pointed to Kamala Harris’ suggestion people attend Trump’s rally to see how exhausting and boring the MAGA nominee has become.  What they missed is the fact the “mind games” began 12 hours earlier.  On Tuesday morning the Harris campaign released a new TV ad that included Barack Obama’s now famous innuendo about Trump’s obsession with “crowd size.”  To make sure the former president saw it, it ran twice on “Fox and Friends.”  Instead of focusing on putting on his game face,  Trump more than likely spent Tuesday stewing about his nemesis Obama mocking him.

WAHOO-WAH

Every morning I get an update about what’s new at my alma mater, “Mr. Jefferson’s University” AKA the University of Virginia.  Among recent articles was a background piece on alumna Linsey Davis, who ABC News chose to be a co-moderator of the Trump/Harris standoff.  What I did not previously know and learned from the article was the anchor of the Weekend Nightly News was not a communications major.  She holds a B.S. in psychology.

Her academic training was in full display Tuesday night, the prime example being her fact-checking Trump’s accusation Democrats, including Governor Tim Walz, support “abortion after birth.”  She did not say, “President Trump, that is not true.”  She knew the audience could figure that out on their own if presented with one clear and simple fact, “There  is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born.”

THE PREGNANT PAUSE

In his book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Robert B. Cialdini suggests a target audience is more likely to buy into an argument when they are allowed to reach their own conclusions.  This principle was apparent when Trump attempted to score points by blaming Joe Biden and Harris for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.  After presenting the history of Trump’s agreement with the Taliban that precipitated the hurried departure of U.S. troops, she wanted to put an exclamation point on her argument by reminding  viewers her opponent had invited the Taliban to visit Camp David, a site reserved for more serious occasions. 

She looked directly at Trump and began, “This…” before taking a moment to let the audience fill in the blank.   Post debate, on-line viewers turned the pause into a game of political “Mad Libs.”  What did Harris want to say before she caught herself and referred to Trump in the more politically correct term “former president?”   Her audience was more than ready to fill in the blanks.

COGNITIVE DISSONANCE

Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person’s behavior and beliefs do not complement each other or when they hold two contradictory beliefs.

~Medical News Today

Donald Trump believes he is a “stable genius.” On Tuesday night, he was anything but.  If he were still alive, Leon Festinger (1919-1989), the Stanford psychology professor who coined the phrase “cognitive dissonance,” would certainly add excerpts from Trump’s appearance in the post-debate “spin room” to illustrate the behavior which carries the label Festinger attached to it.  Trump can believe he won the debate.  His behavior showed just the opposite.

In conclusion, Tuesday was a pretty good day for Kamala Harris.  Not so good for Trump.  But the clear winners were Freud, Jung and generations of their disciples.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

If one thing is certain after every school shooting, it is the search for scapegoats.  The death of two students and two teachers at Apalachee High School in Barrow County, Georgia has more than its share.  Except the one which truly deserves the title.  Let’s look at the candidates.

First, school resource officers are often the targets.  In this case, these law enforcement professionals performed exactly as required.  They confronted the shooter within minutes and prevented what might have been a massacre of much larger proportions.

Second, we have the 14 year old gunman, himself, described by MAGA vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance as “a psycho.”  The full story is yet to be told, but whatever mental challenges the boy may have had, the revelations about his family life seem to be more than a contributing factor.

Third, Colin Gray, the boy’s father, should be at the top of everyone’s list.  Talk about psychos?  Who in his right mind, after being told his son had threatened a school shooting on social media, would think an assault weapon for a 14 year old’s Christmas present was a good idea.  And, when questioned by law enforcement, likely lied on multiple occasions.  His son would never post that kind of language.  He only owned hunting rifles.  And they were secured.  Despite being charged with manslaughter, I have no doubt his defense lawyers will argue prosecutors cannot name a single state law their client violated.  He legally bought the rifle.  He legally gave it to his then 13 year old son.  He had no legal responsibility to store it safely.  He had no legal obligation to inform authorities of his son’s potentially destructive tendencies.  After he and Colt moved to Barrow County, there was no requirement that Gray notify authorities of the 2023 investigation in neighboring Jackson County.

Fourth, Governor Brian Kemp.  Do not forget Georgia’s lax gun laws (46th in the USA) were not good enough for Kemp.  He proudly signed legislation which expanded Georgians’ ability to carry firearms without a permit or training.  And opposed common sense gun safety laws such as universal background checks, safe storage or red flag laws.  The latter would have given Jackson County police and the Georgia Bureau of Investigation the right to remove “hunting rifles” from the Gray household after they discovered Colt used his social media sites to post threats of a school shooting.

Fifth, Congressman Mike Collins, who represents the district in which the shooting took place.  Mike Collins, who has a 100 percent rate from Gunowners of America, the self-proclaimed “no compromise” Second Amendment advocates, and a 92 percent rating from the National Rifle Association.  Mike Collins, who referred to the incident as “heartbreaking,” and of course, extended thoughts and prayers for the victims and their families.  Mike Collins, whose 2022 campaign included an ad of his firing an AR-15 with the tag line, “Send me to Washington and I’ll blow up the Democrats’ coverup.”

Which brings me to the sixth scapegoat, the one NO ONE is talking about.  As I watched horrified parents rushing to the Apalachee football field to reunite with those who had survived the shooting, I wondered, “How many of these concerned parents voted for Kemp and Collins?”  In 2022, 74.6 percent of Barrow County voters cast their ballots for Kemp and 76.3 for Collins.  In other words, three out of every four individuals who prayed their children were safe and will attend the funerals of those who were not as fortunate had no qualms about supporting candidates who claim to be pro-life, but time after time, choose the right of gun owners and manufacturers over the rights of children to go school without worrying if they will return home safely.

Among those responsible for this tragedy are WE THE PEOPLE, especially those who missed the iconic Walt Kelly cartoon, in which Pogo echoes the words of Naval Commander Oliver Perry during the War of 1812, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP