All posts by Dr. ESP

The GOP’s Recessive Gene

Before January 6, 2021, there was another “big lie.”  Republicans repeatedly told us that they are the guardians of the U.S. economy.  Yet, according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been 11 recession since 1953 of which 10 took place during Republican administrations.  Consider the following.

  • During the Eisenhower administration (1953-61), there were THREE recessions with a combined duration of 28 months.  The peak unemployment rate rose to 7.4 percent.  Chronologically, gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 2.7, 3.7, and 1.6 percent during each of the three downturns.
  • During the Kennedy/Johnson administration (1961-65), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Johnson administration (1965-69), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Nixon/Ford administration (1969-1977), there were TWO recessions with a combined duration of 27 months.  The peak unemployment rate was 8.6 percent.  GDP declined by 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
  • During the Carter administration (1977-1981), there was ONE recession with a duration of 6 months.  Peak unemployment was 7.8 percent and GDP declined by 2.2 percent.
  • During the Reagan administration (1981-1989), there was ONE recession with a duration of 16 months.  Peak unemployment was 10.8 percent and GDP declined by 2.9 percent.
  • During the George H. W. Bush administration (1989-1993), there was ONE recession of eight months duration.  The peak unemployment was 6.8 percent and GDP declined by 1.5 percent.
  • During the Clinton administration (1993-2001) there were NO recessions.
  • During the George H. Bush administration (2001-2009), there were TWO recessions of combined 26 months duration.  The peak unemployment rate was 9.5 percent and GDP declined by 0.3 and 4.3 percent, respectively.
  • During the Obama administration (2009-2017), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Trump administration (2017-2021), there was ONE recession with a duration of two months.  The peak unemployment rate was 14.7 percent.
  • During the Biden administration (2021- present), there have been NO recessions.

To recap, since 1953, there have been five Republican administrations with a total of 10 recessions.  Over the same period, there has been six Democratic administrations with only one recession.   The combined duration of GOP recessions is 117 months compared to six months for Democratic presidents.

There has not been a single recession during the past three Democratic administrations spanning 19.5 years in the White House.  In contract, there has not been a single Republican administration in the past 71 years without at least one recession.  In terms of impact, Republican recessions are longer in duration and have higher average peak unemployment.

One of the great mysteries of life is why the CEOs of so many major U.S. corporations continue to back the party that seems to have recession built into their DNA.  Perhaps, Forrest Gump provides the best explanation.  “Stupid is as stupid does.”  Or as George Constanza advised Jerry Seinfeld how to beat a polygraph test, “If YOU believe it, it’s not a lie.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Cheating 101

If at first you don’t succeed, cheat!

~Elijah Barns/The Witch and Jet Splinters

The above quote comes from a series of fantasy books about the partnership between a black cat (Jet Splinters) and Jinny Lane (the witch).  Their goal?  To prevent an unscrupulous developer from building a golf course on land they consider to be sacred.  Before you ask, this is not another tell-all book by one of Donald Trump’s associates.  However, it could be a metaphor how, in January 2021, he tried to construct a false monument to himself on the sacred landscape of American democracy.  You decide whether Mike Pence would be type cast as the witch or the black cat.

Closer to home, Barns’ quote applies also to the state of Florida. Remember, Governor Ron DeSantis and the MAGA-dominated state legislature claim to be the law and order party, except of course, when the law needs a little tweaking or outright trashing to achieve their ideological priorities.  This was most evident when, on November 6, 2018, 65 percent of voters approved Amendment 4, which reads:

This amendment restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses, who would continue to be permanently barred from voting unless the Governor and Cabinet vote to restore their voting rights on a case by case basis.

For the record, the definition of criminal sentence, according to the Legal Information Institute at Cornell University, reads, “the term of imprisonment or probation imposed on a convicted defendant for criminal wrongdoing.”  That must have been good enough for the State of Florida because there were no statutes which provided an alternative definition.  That is, of course, until passage of Amendment 4, at which time the governor and state legislature said, “The voters be damned.  We ain’t gonna let all those felons vote in our state.”  To accomplish their objective, the legislature passed and DeSantis signed Senate Bill 7066 signed in June 2019.  The act added Section 98.0751, which included the following, more expansive definition of “sentencing.”

Full payment of fines or fees ordered by the court as a part of the sentence or that are ordered are ordered by the court as a condition of any form of supervision, including, but not limited to, probation, community control, or parole.

These fees include the $50/day charged for prison stays beginning on the day of conviction and ending on the last day of the court ordered sentence, even if the inmate is subject to early release.  Since most inmates cannot pay the fee while in prison, it accrues as “a cost of incarceration lien.”  If on probation, a convicted felon may be subject to a supervision fee and required to reimburse the state for drug testing, electronic monitoring and instruction programs.  It is not hard to imagine these accrued obligations can take years, if not forever, to pay off.

Call it whatever you want, but changing the rules after a winner has been declared is cheating in my book.  This year we have a new Amendment 4, and DeSantis is at it again with the upcoming vote in November to provide a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability.  Polling suggests the measure could garner the 60 percent majority needed for passage.  This time, DeSantis, et. al., decided not to wait until the outcome to undercut voters.

The text of the propose amendment is pretty straight forward.

Except as provided in Article X, Section 22, no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.

The exception refers to a requirement under current law that parents of a minor be notified if their child seeks an abortion unless a waiver is provided by a state court.

You must be really creative to find a way to cheat on this one.  But that did not stop DeSantis and opponents of the measure.  Under the administrative rules for constitutional referenda, the proposed amendment must be accompanied by financial impact statement which estimates potential revenues and expenses if the proposal is approved.  State law designates a panel called the Financial Impact Estimate Conference to draft the impact statement.  Florida Statute 216.138 defines the Conference members as follows.

  • A representative from the Executive Office of the Governor
  • A representative from the Senate’s professional staff
  • A representative from the House of Representatives’ professional staff
  • The coordinator of the Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research, or their designee 
Following release of an initial impact statemen that stated the financial impact of Amendment 4 was “indeterminate,”  Governor DeSantis and House Speaker Paul Renner appointed additional members to the panel who voted to change the language appearing on the November ballot.  The new language suggests passage would result in:
  •  A reduction of education services.
  • An overall reduction in fertility rates reducing federal funding.
  • A worse credit rating affecting Florida’s fiscal output.

“Yes on 4,” the organization leading the campaign to pass the amendment, has challenged the new language because Speaker Renner’s 11th hour appointment was ineligible for membership on the impact panel.  Rachel Greszler, is not a member of the House’s professional staff as required by statute.  Are you ready?  Greszler is a member of the Heritage Foundation, and according to the Washington Post, (drum roll) “a contributing author to that group’s controversial Project 2025 plan.”

So, speaking of amendments, if Elijah Barns decides to publish a subsequent volume in his The Witch and Jet Splinters saga, he may want to revise the quote to read:

If at first, you believe you are not going to succeed, cheat!

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Maybe They Are Right

I continue to be surprised how many people who have read my book In the National Interest ask me, “Do you believe it was possible that Kennedy ordered his own assassination?”  I even had one reader ask me, “How did you, of all people, get possession of that journal?”  On Facebook and Reddit sites dedicated to the assassination, I constantly have to remind commenters who want to poke holes in the narrative that it is a work of fiction, not intended to solve the crime of the 20th century.

This morning, based on efforts by the MAGAverse to put the brakes on Kamala Harris’ game-changing entry into the 2024 presidential sweepstakes, I wondered if there was room for one more work of conspiratorial fiction.  Was this mastermind Joe Biden’s last act, eclipsing his rigging the outcome of Super Bowl LVIII?  Another saga in which the mystery is not “who dunnit” but “how dunnit?”

I, therefore, offer for your imagination In the National Interest Redux by Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.  President Biden has only forwarded the preface to me, but promises to send the complete story to be offered as a serial.


PREFACE
Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Dare I say, “Mission Accomplished!”  On January 20, 2025, Kamala Harris will take the oath as 47th president of the United States.  The first woman and second person of color to occupy the Oval Office.  No surprise, Donald Trump has yet to concede even though the final vote tally represents a larger Democratic margin of victory than 2020.  And the MAGA conspiracy machine is in fifth gear.  Of course, their malarky theories cover all the usual bases.  Corrupted voting machines.  Fake Harris and destroyed Trump ballots.  Foreign interference.

If only they knew the truth.  They are half right.  There was a conspiracy, a grand one in fact.  It was launched years before the election and had nothing to do with when and how people voted.  That is the beauty of a truly great conspiracy.  Get the victim to focus on the wrong things, especially when he fancies himself as a master of misdirection.  I laughed when Trump, immediately following my announcement that I would withdraw from the race, threatened to sue the DNC.  He claimed his campaign had wasted millions of dollars running against me when I had always planned to step aside.  A classic case of the fraud calling the bluffer black.  Donald, you’re getting warmer than you imagine.

Let me take you back to the beginning, January 20, 2021.  When Donald and Melania Trump never invited Jill and me to the White House and said he would not attend the inauguration, I knew he would not ride off into the sunset.  If you are someone who picked up this book, you already know that is who he is.  Therefore, 2020 was not a one-off.  We would have to defeat him again, and this time, he would up his game of fear, lies and misinformation.  He would have four years to build a case against me and my record, regardless of our success or failure.  We, too, needed a four-year strategy.

Now, you may find this hard to believe, but back in 2020, at age 77, I knew I was old.  And I knew if I wanted to run again in 2024 at 81, I would be even older.  That is why I suggested on several occasions, one term was enough to do the things I hoped to do.  Save the country from a second Trump term.  Bring us back from the pandemic.  Restore the United States’ reputation as leader of the free world.  And lay the foundation for the next generation of American leaders, hopefully Democratic ones.

I also knew, to defeat Trump again, we needed to rely on the same coalition of minority voters, progressives and educated suburban voters to counter any increase in my predecessor’s recruitment of cult followers and believers who wished for a return to their delusional memories of a “simpler time.”

One more thing you might find hard to believe.  I did not pick Kamala Harris to be my running mate.  Donald Trump did, unwittingly of course, but that’s a given.  Although she did not win the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton had been right about what a Trump administration would mean.  Especially, appointments to the Supreme Court and the danger to women’s rights, years before the Dobbs decision.  By putting Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett on the Court, it was Trump who created the backlash that assured time had come for a female chief executive.

Then I had to do my part.  Which is why, on August 11, 2020, I announced the Biden/Harris ticket.  Thus began the journey which brought us to this moment.  However, before I share the details, I need to correct something I wrote previously.  This may have been a grand scheme, but it was no conspiracy.  A conspiracy requires the collaboration of two or more people.  Prior to this account, no one, not family, close advisors or even Kamala, knew this was the plan from day one.  I may be old,  but I can still protect a secret, classified or not.

TO BE CONTINUED
Dr. ESP

“FORE” More Years

I have been briefed on the shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania.  I’m grateful to hear that he’s safe and doing well. I’m praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information.

~President Joe Biden/July 13, 2024

Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for president, and is certainly not fit to serve – and never was!  He only attained the position of president by lies, fake news, and not leaving his basement…We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.

~Former President Donald Trump/July 21, 2024

Donald Trump loves to talk about his golf game.  And as anyone who has picked up a club will tell you, golf is a game of honor and respect for others on the course.  This includes fixing divots on the fairway, raking sand traps and repairing ball marks on the green.  Failing to do any of these is more an inconvenience, not a matter of life or death.  There is only one courtesy that approaches the latter.  Yelling “FORE” following an errant shot in the direction of another player or spectator.  I doubt whether Trump has ever used the term, since according to him, he has never endangered the safety of another golfer, having never executed anything but a “perfect” swing.

As America enters the final phase of what must be one of the least predictable contests in the history of presidential contests, the above quotes are one more reminder of the choice voters have on November 5, 2024.  In the face of potential tragedy, one side yells “FORE!!!”  Despite the bucolic nature of the rolling fairways, forests and water features of  August National, Pinehurst, Pebble Beach or St. Andrews, competitors and spectators are often subjected to incoming projectiles.  And on those occasions when one of those dimpled spheres collides with its unintended target, the responsible golfers, regardless of the severity of the strike, inevitably check to see if their “victims” are okay and wish them well.  That is what Biden and every Democratic officials did upon hearing of the events at Trump’s Butler, Pennsylvania rally.

Golf news 2024, Xander Schauffele wins British Open Championship ahead of Justin Rose

An equally defining moment in golf comes at the end of a match when competitors, regardless how intensely their rivalry played out, acknowledge their common experience.  Yesterday was a prime example.  Runner-up Justin Rose congratulated Open Champion Xander Schauffele and conceded he had been outplayed on the final nine holes.  Likewise, Schauffele attributed his ability to focus on the task at hand to Rose’s equally good showing.  Not so with Trump.  Despite his professed love of golf, his response to Biden’s announcement again proves he may understand the mechanics of golf but has never mastered the culture of the game.

This fact is documented in sportswriter Rick Reilly’s 2019 book, Commander-in-Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump.  His dislike for Trump has nothing to do with politics, triggered initially by Trump’s many outrageous claims of golfing excellence on Twitter and confirmed by rounds of golf with the former president.  Reilly writes, “I wasn’t offended as a voter. I was offended as a golfer.”  For example, he recalls how Trump races ahead of his playing partners in a “turbo-charged golf cart,” giving him time to improve his position before the others catch up to him.  Balls landing in hazards beam, Star Trek-like, to preferred lies in the middle of the fairway.

Reilly’s primary thesis in his book is to reveal a much larger truth about Trump and others who approach the game in a similar manner.

If you’re going to cheat at golf, you’re going to cheat on your taxes, cheat on your wife and cheat on — what else? Elections? If you’re going to lie about your round, why not lie about how many votes you got, or how big your inauguration size was? Do you realize he lies about the size of his buildings? It’s incredible to me.

It is too bad First Tee, launched by PGA Tour Commissioner Tim Finchem in 1997, did not exist when Donald was growing up.  It would have a been a better alternative to the lessons he learned at New York Military Academy.  For those unfamiliar with First Tee, here is its mission statement.

First Tee is a youth development organization that enables kids to build the strength of character that empowers them through a lifetime of new challenges. By seamlessly integrating the game of golf with a life skills curriculum, we create active learning experiences that build inner strength, self-confidence, and resilience that kids can carry to everything they do. 

What does this have to do with the presidential election, especially in light of Biden’s withdrawal from the contest?  Echoing Richard Nixon’s “last press conference” after losing his 1962 bid for governor of California, the press won’t have Joe Biden to kick around any more.  Which shifts the spotlight back on Trump.  And as he demonstrated in his nomination acceptance speech last Thursday night (and Friday morning), there is no “newly tempered Trump,” chastened by his near encounter with death.  He will return to form, taking errant shots at his opponent, especially if it is Kamala Harris.  Meanwhile, none of his sycophants dare remind him to yell “FORE!”  Instead, they will “let Trump be Trump” for the 105 days between now and the election.  Hopefully voters will recognize only they can yell “FORE,” warning others of Trump’s barrage of incoming misinformation, outright lies and gaslighting.

What is the message?  There is no “new Trump” just as there was no “new Nixon.”  And the question?  Is 15 weeks of the “old Trump” enough to jog voters’ memory how quickly they tired of the chaos, making four more years (or longer) of it an unbearable eternity?

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Shooting the Messenger

There is no justification for what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania Saturday afternoon.  It was an unacceptable assault on democracy.  And America is fortunate the shooter was a less skilled marksman than Lee Harvey Oswald or James Earl Ray.  In a rare moment of agreement, both President Biden and Donald Trump called on their supporters to “cool down the temperature.”  This period of reconciliation did not last 24 hours. 

Biden went on national television Sunday night and reminded Americans, “We settle our differences at the ballot box, not with bullets” and pulled ads his campaign planned to run during the Republican National Convention.  Trump sent his supporters a fundraising letter which included a stylized version of AP photographer Evan Vucci’s image of the blooded candidate raising his fist in the air.

The question that haunts me today is, “Will Americans let a misguided 20 year-old with his father’s AR-15 decide the future direction of our country?”  Thomas Matthew Crooks must have thought he could.  Which brings me back to my previous posts, especial the one from July 9, titled, “An Unwitting Asset.”  The 2024 election, regardless of the Republican nominee, should never be about an individual.  “The soul of America,” about which Biden so often refers, has been under assault for decades.  When Democrats, myself included, focus on Trump’s flaws, we drop the ball.

I apologize for repeating myself, but the vision of America that will be laid out in Milwaukee did not begin with Donald Trump.  The Heritage Foundation was founded in 1973 by Paul Weyrich, Edwin Feulner and Joseph Coors.  [Note:  Weyrich, a la Gene Wilder in Young Frankenstein, insisted his last name was pronounced “Wy-Rick” instead of “Way-Rich.]  Weyrich, a conservative commentator, political activist and ordained deacon in the Melkite Greek Catholic Church, recruited Coors, patriarch of the brewery which bears his family name, to underwrite creation of the Heritage Foundation.  Feulner, after serving as an aide to Congressman Phil Crane (R-IL), became Heritage’s first president.

If you think Project 2025 is the first time the Heritage Foundation played a major role in setting the agenda for a Republican administration, think again.  In 1981, the foundation provided policy guidance for incoming president Ronald Reagan including a document with 2,000 specific recommendations titled (drum roll) “Mandate for Leadership.”  Sound familiar?  Heritage exerted similar influence during the George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush administrations.

Following the announcement of Trump’s entry into the 2016 election cycle, the foundation was no fan of the future president.  Heritage Action director Michael Needham, during a Fox News appearance, said, “Donald Trump’s a clown.”  However, after Trump secured the GOP nomination, the Foundation forwarded a list of potential appointees, according to the New York Times, drawn from “a 3,000-name searchable database of trusted movement conservatives from around the country who were eager to serve in a post-Obama government.”  (Again I ask, “Sound familiar?”)

Which brings me to the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies (FedSoc), founded in 1982 by law students at Harvard, Yale and the University of Chicago.  It claims to be a response to judicial activism and often quotes Alexander Hamilton to support their views.

It can be of no weight to say that the courts, on the pretense of a repugnancy, may substitute their own pleasure to the constitutional intentions of the legislature.

To achieve that goal, FedSoc  wanted to flood the courts with their members.  And flood them they have.  All six Republican appointees to the Supreme Court belong to FedSoc.  And surprise, surprise, so does Judge Aileen Cannon of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, who, as I am writing this, just dismissed the classified documents case against Trump.  Among the law professors in the FedSoc ranks is former dean of the Chapman University School of Law John Eastman, one of the architects of the 2020 fake electors scheme.

While the Heritage Foundation is the policy arm of the one-percent, the Federalist Society is the judicial branch of the same confederation.  Donors include the Koch family ($116 billion net worth), the Richard Mellon Scaife family ($1.2 billion) foundation and the Mercer family ($900 million) as well as major corporations such as Google and Chevron.  Yes, that Chevron.  The losing plaintiff in a 1984 case which was recently overturned by a six member majority, you guessed it, the GOP appointees who just happen to be FedSoc members.  [NOTE:  The Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society are both 501(c)(3) educational foundations which means, assuming these major donors are in the maximum 37 percent marginal tax bracket, the federal government subsidizes 37 cent for each dollar they give to their “noble” cause.]

To suggest that FedSoc-appointed justices selectively suffer amnesia when its comes to Hamilton or their originalist philosophy is an understatement.  The dam broke with Citizens United v. FEC.  So much for legislative prerogative as Hamilton advocated.  This case literally outlawed federal and state legislators’ role in regulating campaign financing.  And, to this day, legal scholars are still looking for constitutional language that equates MONEY with SPEECH.

Likewise, by reversing the 1984 Chevron decision, the justices stripped Congress of its Article I authority to legislatively delegate rulemaking to federal agencies.  To the contrary, the courts anointed the judiciary as the venue for oversight.  In general, the Roberts court has repeatedly ruled in favor of management over workers, overturned state election laws and ignored the Article II of the Constitution in support of the the Heritage Foundation’s belief in the unitary theory of the executive branch.  Can you say “presidential immunity?”  I knew you could.

So forget Donald Trump!  Republican presidents since 1980 have been doing the bidding of this cabal of oligarchs not unlike the one that pulls Vladimir Putin’s strings.  Giving them massive tax breaks.  Reducing regulations promulgated to protect the public health and safety. Appointing their hand-picked justices and judges who regularly decide cases in favor of the privileged. The difference with Trump is that they now have someone who revels in the trappings of the White House, unlike his patrons who prefer life under the radar.  Equally important, even as he tosses out non-sensical ideas such as replacing the income tax with tariffs, he eventually lands exactly where they want him to be, deeper tax cuts and deregulation.  It is this system, not Donald Trump, that should be on trial November 5th.

The solution? 

  • #1: Reposition the 2024 election as something other than a “grudge match” between Biden and Trump by nominating someone who can prosecute the oligarchs’ agenda rather than their mouthpiece. 
  • #2: Structure the Democratic convention to expose the consequences of an administration based on Project 2025.  Do this with presentations by one member of Trump’s first administration who tells voters how implementation of Project 2025 proposals would corrupt the executive branch, followed by a Democrat who lays out an alternative agenda for the next four years.  Each presentation should be illustrated with examples of the consequences for most Americans. 
  • #3:  After pointing out Trump is only the messenger for the uber-rich elites, never mention his name again.  Although Trump claims he is a changed man following his brush with death, does any actually believe him?  Based on past behavior, I trust he will prove us correct without our help.

The prime directive?  Explain why the 2024 election is a choice between Russian-style oligarchy and democracy.  And separate voters’ perception that the MAGA agenda is a populist response to their grievances from what it really means for their families and wallets.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP