So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.

~President Richard Nixon/November 3, 1969

In this excerpt from a televised address to the nation outlining his plan to end the war in Vietnam, Richard Nixon coined the phrase “silent majority.”  His target audience was Americans who rarely if ever spoke about politics, citizens he was convinced had voted for him the year before and would assure his re-election in 1972.   With the help of a divided Democratic Party and a weak nominee, Nixon made his re-election landslide an “I told you so” moment.

Every time I hear pollsters talk about the undercounted support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, I wonder if a “silent majority” will carry him to a second term in November.  Though my first thought always is, “Trump supporters are anything but silent.”  Which begged the question, “This time, could there be a pro-Harris silent majority not measured by the boisterous enthusiasm at every one of her rallies?”  But maybe, just maybe, it is more complicated than that.  What if, the polls are undercounting Harris’ support because, when it comes to being contacted by polling organizations they are not just silent.  They are also downright scared.

Consider the following evidence starting with the way protesters are treated differently at Trump and Harris rallies. There is a reason why you do not see pro-choice or pro-Palestinian advocates at a Trump rally. From the stage, Trump encourages his faithful fans “to knock the crap out of hecklers.”  He has even offered to cover their legal expenses if they are arrested and charged with physical assault. 

In contrast, Harris merely brushes them off as she did when two students began shouting “Christ is King” as she was telling a University of Wisconsin-Lacrosse audience how reversing Roe v. Wade endangered women’s health and lives.  She calmly told the protesters, “I think you’re at the wrong rally.  You must be looking for the smaller one down the street.”  The students surely anticipated the crowd’s disapproval.  However, they also knew their safety was not in danger.

Which brings me to the difference between polling and voting.  When you vote in Florida, an election official hands you a folder containing your ballot.  The folder is numbered, but the ballot is not.  When you separate the two and insert your ballot in the scanning device, the folder is laid aside.  At that point, your name is no longer associated with the scanned ballot and the privacy of your vote is protected.

Not so with polling operations.  When a worker for a polling organization calls you, their source is most often state or local voter registration lists.  And if they have your phone number, they also have your name and address.  More importantly, they seldom identify who they are working for.  And if they do, it is not an easily recognizable polling company such as Gallup.

Which begs a new question, “What are the potential consequences of providing information to a stranger who can then link your candidate preference to personal information?”  Any answer I might suggest pales in comparison to the range of options Donald Trump repeated multiple times this past week he might employ.  Anyone who challenges his authority or even simply disagrees with him is referred to as “the enemy within.” And Trump has said he might employ the National Guard, or if necessary, the U.S. Army to take care of his opponents.  Or drag them before a military tribunal as he threatened to do with Liz Cheney.  Or execute a general like Mark Milley for daring to converse with his Chinese counterpart to alleviate any possible miscalculation by either side during the chaos on January 6, 2021.

Bottom line.  Whenever I receive a call that begins, “Do you have a minute to give your opinion,” I simply hang up the phone.  Do I expect an armed militia will show up at my front door?  No.  But like former FBI director James Comey or his deputy Andrew McCabe, I do wonder if a Trump “Schedule F” (see page 80 of Project 2025) loyalist in the bowels of the IRS building will order my tax returns be audited.  Or whether a toady in the State Department invalidates my passport.  Or a mini-Trump in local government has my house re-assessed.

So, if you are wondering how can the polls possibly be so close, there are three possible answers.  One, there really is a majority of voters who think America would be a better place under authoritarian rule.  Two, changes in demographics and the absence of new pro-Harris voter registrants in the polling samples have skewed the results.  Or three, there is a silent, scared majority who decided it was prudent to just keep their powder dry and speak with their ballots rather than their voices.

For the nation’s sake and future, I am betting it is a combination of the second and third.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I had a dream which I shared with readers on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.  The finale of Kamala Harris’ and Tim Walz’ coming out party would be a live performance of Beyoncé’s “Freedom,” accompanied by Taylor Swift.  Privately, however, I lamented my fantasy trifecta which included Bruce Springsteen would never happen since “The Boss” had booked a concert in Pittsburgh that night.

The United Center in Chicago would be rocking, but it was not about the music.  It was each performer’s targeted message that confirmed the central theme of the Harris/Walz campaign.  The Democratic ticket knows success depends on the extent to which the campaign can energize two constituencies and narrow Donald Trump’s advantage with a third.

There is no question this is a “turnout” election.  At the top of that list are minorities and women.  And the biggest challenge is motivating younger members of these cohorts.  Swift is the messenger of empowerment for young women.  Likewise, in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement, Beyoncé is the oracle of African-American empowerment.  Who better to remind potential voters in these demographics that their aspirational paths are more easily traversed in an environment of hope and opportunity rather than one of hate and retribution.

However, that is not enough.  Every Democratic pundit constantly reminds us Harris cannot win if Trump’s margin among white voters, and especially white men, eclipses her advantage among traditional Democratic voters.  Which is why yesterday may have been the most important 24 hours in the last month of this election cycle.

It started with the joint appearance by Harris and Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Unlike so many of Harris’ rally, the audience was as vanilla as you’ll ever see at a Democratic event.  This historic event did something no previous rally or Harris TV appearance could do.  Because it was unprecedented, it HAD to be covered by all the media outlets.  And how did Cheney use this opportunity?  First, she delivered a civics lesson about the what her party used to stand for:  smaller government, lower taxes, a strong military and global leadership.  These are all the things she told us she looks forward to debating in the future.

And then, knowing that right-wing media were under-reporting evidence of Trump’s criminal acts in Jack Smith’s recent filing, Cheney shared critical excerpts with the those at the event and the television audience.” And then she put the last nail in the coffin.  Before lowering the hammer, she reminded us that once GOP candidates ran under the banner of “compassionate conservativism.”  Then BAM, no one who says “So what!” when he is told that his own vice-president is in harm’s way has a compassionate bone in his body.  According to Cheney, the only word to describe such behavior is “depravity.”

That was just Act I of this morality play.  As the Harris/Cheney love fest was winding down, Springsteen released a video in which he endorsed the Harris/Walz ticket.  It contained what may be the most subliminal, yet powerful message possible (below).

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are committed to a vision of this country that respects and includes everyone, regardless of class, religion, race, your political point of view or sexual identity.  That’s the vision of America I’ve been consistently writing about for 55 years.

He could have been more heavy-handed.  “You know why you come to my concerts and stream my albums.  You are drawn to the same things that inspired me to write the lyrics and compose the music.  A vote for Donald Trump is a denial of that bond between me the entertainer and you the audience all these years.”  But Springsteen respects his fans too much to insult their intelligence.

I still dream of Beyoncé, Swift and Springsteen on stage together.  But if it comes the night Harris is declared the winner or at an inaugural concert on the Washington mall, I am okay with that.  It is now up to us ensure it happens.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

P.S.  I confess, Springsteen was never on my playlists, and  I could not name more than two of his songs.  But, as I write this post, I have been listening to a live recording of his December 14, 2023 concert in Boston.  And I was inspired.  So, as the title of today’s post says, “Better late than never.”