Category Archives: Politics

The Silent, Scared Majority

Culture, Politics

So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.

~President Richard Nixon/November 3, 1969

In this excerpt from a televised address to the nation outlining his plan to end the war in Vietnam, Richard Nixon coined the phrase “silent majority.”  His target audience was Americans who rarely if ever spoke about politics, citizens he was convinced had voted for him the year before and would assure his re-election in 1972.   With the help of a divided Democratic Party and a weak nominee, Nixon made his re-election landslide an “I told you so” moment.

Every time I hear pollsters talk about the undercounted support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, I wonder if a “silent majority” will carry him to a second term in November.  Though my first thought always is, “Trump supporters are anything but silent.”  Which begged the question, “This time, could there be a pro-Harris silent majority not measured by the boisterous enthusiasm at every one of her rallies?”  But maybe, just maybe, it is more complicated than that.  What if, the polls are undercounting Harris’ support because, when it comes to being contacted by polling organizations they are not just silent.  They are also downright scared.

Consider the following evidence starting with the way protesters are treated differently at Trump and Harris rallies. There is a reason why you do not see pro-choice or pro-Palestinian advocates at a Trump rally. From the stage, Trump encourages his faithful fans “to knock the crap out of hecklers.”  He has even offered to cover their legal expenses if they are arrested and charged with physical assault. 

In contrast, Harris merely brushes them off as she did when two students began shouting “Christ is King” as she was telling a University of Wisconsin-Lacrosse audience how reversing Roe v. Wade endangered women’s health and lives.  She calmly told the protesters, “I think you’re at the wrong rally.  You must be looking for the smaller one down the street.”  The students surely anticipated the crowd’s disapproval.  However, they also knew their safety was not in danger.

Which brings me to the difference between polling and voting.  When you vote in Florida, an election official hands you a folder containing your ballot.  The folder is numbered, but the ballot is not.  When you separate the two and insert your ballot in the scanning device, the folder is laid aside.  At that point, your name is no longer associated with the scanned ballot and the privacy of your vote is protected.

Not so with polling operations.  When a worker for a polling organization calls you, their source is most often state or local voter registration lists.  And if they have your phone number, they also have your name and address.  More importantly, they seldom identify who they are working for.  And if they do, it is not an easily recognizable polling company such as Gallup.

Which begs a new question, “What are the potential consequences of providing information to a stranger who can then link your candidate preference to personal information?”  Any answer I might suggest pales in comparison to the range of options Donald Trump repeated multiple times this past week he might employ.  Anyone who challenges his authority or even simply disagrees with him is referred to as “the enemy within.” And Trump has said he might employ the National Guard, or if necessary, the U.S. Army to take care of his opponents.  Or drag them before a military tribunal as he threatened to do with Liz Cheney.  Or execute a general like Mark Milley for daring to converse with his Chinese counterpart to alleviate any possible miscalculation by either side during the chaos on January 6, 2021.

Bottom line.  Whenever I receive a call that begins, “Do you have a minute to give your opinion,” I simply hang up the phone.  Do I expect an armed militia will show up at my front door?  No.  But like former FBI director James Comey or his deputy Andrew McCabe, I do wonder if a Trump “Schedule F” (see page 80 of Project 2025) loyalist in the bowels of the IRS building will order my tax returns be audited.  Or whether a toady in the State Department invalidates my passport.  Or a mini-Trump in local government has my house re-assessed.

So, if you are wondering how can the polls possibly be so close, there are three possible answers.  One, there really is a majority of voters who think America would be a better place under authoritarian rule.  Two, changes in demographics and the absence of new pro-Harris voter registrants in the polling samples have skewed the results.  Or three, there is a silent, scared majority who decided it was prudent to just keep their powder dry and speak with their ballots rather than their voices.

For the nation’s sake and future, I am betting it is a combination of the second and third.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Ready on Day 90?

Comic Relief, Politics

In a Thursday post on his Truth Social platform, former President Donald Trump argued that Vice President Kamala Harris “should be investigated and forced off the Campaign,” thereby allowing President Joe Biden “to take back his rightful place” at the top of the Democratic ticket. Trump did not specify what he believes Harris — who became the Republican’s rival in the White House race after Biden dropped his reelection bid this summer — should be investigated for.

~HUFFPOST.COM/October 17, 2024

Life is easy when everything goes exactly as planned.  The alarm goes off on time.  There is still enough hot water for your morning shower.  There is another box of your favorite breakfast cereal.  Traffic is lighter than normal.  The boss thanks you for getting him the information she needed for the board meeting.  The Dow hits another new high.  You celebrate by taking your spouse out for dinner.  And Netflix finally dropped Season 4 of “Stranger Things.”

Most of us know there is no such thing as a perfect day.  That is where planning comes in.  If you live in hurricane alley, you have a standing evacuation plan, bought a generator and stocked the pantry with non-perishable items.  If the Wall Street Journal reports your company is struggling and planning layoffs, you do not wait until you get your pink slip to start looking for alternative employment.  If your doctor recommends a life-style change to prevent a second heart attack, you start Googling tasty, salt-free meals and explore memberships at an area health club.

Donald J. Trump is not “most of us.”  As a right-brained thinker who traffics in metaphors, I wondered, “What is the best way to make people understand the consequences?”  As is always the case, the answer emerges in the most unexpected ways.  This time it was dinner at the Fish Market in Boca Raton with my wife, my mother and two close friends.  I do not remember how we got there, but the conservation turned to, “What is your favorite version of Dicken’s Christmas Carol?”  For the record, my favorite is “Mr. Magoo’s Christmas Carol.”

Therefore, I am proud to present a Dr. ESP production of “Mr. Trump’s Christmas Carol.”  My goal?  No different than Charles Dickens’ as he wrote in the preface of the original:

I have endeavoured in this Ghostly little book, to raise the Ghost of an Idea, which shall not put my readers out of humour with themselves, with each other, with the season, or with me. May it haunt their houses pleasantly, and no one wish to lay it.

A CHRISTMAS CAROL

Stave 1: The First of the Three Spirits

Trump pulls back the curtains of his poster bed and comes face to face with an old man viewed through some supernatural medium.  “Who are you?” he asks.  “I am the Ghost of administrations past.  Let’s take a walk.”

The first stop is the Oval Office on January 28, 2020.  A younger Trump is sitting behind the Resolute Desk.  Advisors bring him news the coronavirus has arrived in America, it is air borne, and could rival the pandemic of 1918.  They suggest, “Maybe we need to re-establish the NSC pandemic unit you disbanded in 2018.”  His response?  “Bah, humbug.”

The second stop is the admissions desk at Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York City on May 7, 2020.  The line extends outside the door and around the block.  A reporter asks the hospital administrator, “What is the problem?  Why is the line so long?”  “Because we do not have enough testing devices.  We’ve requested more from CDC but they tell us they have exhausted their supply,” she replies.

The specter turns and asks, “Donald, do you remember where you were that day?”  An image appears of the then-president on the phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.  You can only hear Trump’s side of the conversation.  “Yes, Vlad.  I know it’s bad.  I’m just as scared as you are of catching the virus.  Let me send you some testing devices…You’re welcome, I owed you one anyway.”

“Bah, humbug.  I’ve seen enough,” Trump says.  “Those people didn’t vote for me.  And then they expected me to come to their rescue.”  He falls back to sleep.

Stave 2:  The Second of the Three Spirits

Trump is awakened by a second visitor, a younger spirit who again invites the former president to go with him.  Trump asks, “Who are you?”  “The Ghost of elections present.”

This time the first stop is the Baird Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 18, 2024, the last night of the Republican National Convention.  A confident Trump, having recently survived an assassination attempt and leading his presumed opponent in the polls, is jubilant.  Aware of the increasing pressure on incumbent Joe Biden to drop out of the race, Trump’s campaign staff urge him to have a contingency plan just in case.  “Bah, humbug,” he again replies.

The second stop is Trump’s bedroom on the night of October 17. 2024.  He is posting on Truth Social.  “Why are you showing me this?”  Trump asks.  “Because you did not listen to your advisors.  Biden withdrew from the race 90 days ago.  And you still can’t deal with it.  Here’s what you posted.”

60 MINUTES SHOULD BE IMMEDIATELY TAKEN OFF THE AIR – ELECTION INTERFERENCE. CBS SHOULD LOSE ITS LICENSE. THIS IS THE BIGGEST SCANDAL IN BROADCAST HISTORY. Kamala should be investigated and forced off the Campaign, and Joe Biden allowed to take back his rightful place (He got 14 Million Primary Votes, she got none!). THIS WHOLE SORDID AND FRAUDULENT EVENT IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY!

The spirit continues, “Don’t you understand how small and petty you sound?  And it only confirms everything Harris said about you last night on Fox News.”

“It doesn’t matter.  The base loves this stuff,”  Trump pushes back.  “Ghost, you’re wrong.  I’m done with you.”

Stave 3:  The Last of the Spirits

Trump had barely dozed off again, when he was awakened by a third spirit who uncannily resembled Liz Cheney.  “And who are you?”  Trump asked.  “I am the Ghost of inaugurations future,”  she replies. 

Trump watches as Kamala Harris takes the oath of office as the first female president of the United States.  “How could this happen?  How did they steal the election?” he asks.  “No one stole anything, Donald.  No one to blame but yourself.  You expected everything to simply fall into place.  But that’s not how life works.  Americans understood if a candidate cannot adapt to an unanticipated challenge during the campaign, it was clear to them you learned nothing from the mistakes you made during the pandemic or following your loss to Joe Biden.”

“So where am I on January 20, 2025?” he asks.  The third Ghost conjures up an image of Trump at the omelet bar at Mar-a-Lago.  “I guess it could be worse,” he surmises.  “Oh, it is,” she informs him.  “See those guys on the perimeter.  They used to be your Secret Service detail.  Now they are federal prison guards.  You were sentenced to five years house arrest after being convicted of interfering with the 2020 transfer of power and mishandling classified documents.”

“Bah, f***ing humbug”

Stave 4: The End of It

No, not everyone lived happily ever after, but democracy was saved and Americans continue the quest to form a more perfect union, just as those oldest of ghosts, the Founding Fathers, planned.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The Civics of Disaster

Media, Politics

In the past few weeks, current events have grabbed my attention and taken me away from the topic of demands for more civics education in schools.  In an August post, “Civics Advocate, Heal Thyself,” I argued much of the research on which this movement is based asked the wrong questions.  To understand the Constitution and governance based on that document, the names of certain office holders are temporal and therefore less important than the processes by which these office holders make decisions.

Just as current events took me away from this topic, a current event, the aftermath of Hurricane Helene brings it back in focus.  Response to a natural disaster is the perfect opportunity to educate people how government works.  And whereas I often turn to experts and their research to bolster an argument, today I will speak from experience.

In April 1983, Texas Governor Mark White approved my appointment as state director of housing and community development.  My team’s primary responsibilities included distributing $41 million/year in HUD block grants and tracking Section 8 housing expenditures.  In December of that same year, Texans experienced the most severe cold snap in the Lone Star State’s history.  The citrus and produce industry along the Rio Grande border was devastated when the high temperature on December 18 was less than the previous all-time low for the same date.

The next morning Governor White invited program directors from several agencies to his office to discuss a recovery plan.  The common denominator among the invitees was each “controlled” a significant amount of discretionary funds.  After being briefed on the economic stress in South Texas including 27 percent unemployment in Starr County, the governor then asked us “to start writing checks” so impacted residents could purchase essentials during the recovery period.  My counterparts in other agencies and I had to remind Governor White that our programs, authorized by federal or state law, restricted both the uses and recipients of the legislatively appropriated funds.

For programs my team administered, eligible recipients were local governments and qualified expenses were limited to public improvements or services.  Within hours we were on the phone with mayors and county judges (Texas’ equivalent to county commissioners who also have some judicial responsibilities).  We were able to identify qualified projects and activities for which displaced farmworkers could be hired and paid at prevailing wage rates.  One example was removal of freeze-damaged trees along U.S. Highway 83, which parallels the Rio Grande River from Brownsville to El Paso.  The State Transportation Commission had federal funds under a “transportation enhancement” program which could be used to purchase trees and other flora to reduce soil erosion or beautify highway corridors.  Therefore, we were able to provide additional income to workers who helped with reforestation of the most impacted areas.

Concurrently, FEMA brought in trailers and heated tents to house residents with inadequate home heating to counter the arctic-like temperatures.  No one person or agency had all the answers or resources.  But many of us could pick a niche and did what we could.  To coordinate the effort of so many agencies (federal, state and local), a control center was established at the National Guard Armory in McAllen, Texas where progress was monitored and lingering problems could be addressed.

Equally important, the only two phrases I ever heard from elected officials in the region were, “Thank you,” and “What else can we do to help?”  If Donald Trump understood what it takes to respond to an unprecedented natural disaster he would be ashamed of his rhetoric since Helene uprooted communities, business and families in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee.  But he has no shame.  Nor do his enablers who have repeated and amplified his lies.

Which is why I am grateful for the few Republicans such as Tennessee Governor Bill Lee, North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis, and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp who have all shared stories about the effective involvement of a host of public and private responders, including FEMA.  The most damning description of Trump’s irresponsible behavior comes from the editorial board of the Charlotte Observer.

This is not a situation to capitalize on for political gain. But former President Donald Trump has politicized the situation at every turn, spreading falsehoods and conspiracies that fracture the community instead of bringing it together…There’s no evidence to support any of those ridiculous claims. And by every indication, state and federal agencies have been working to help people in need.

One more reminder to voters they have a choice on November 5.  On one side a candidate who understands that government, more than at any other time, can and should help Americans when they face hardship which is no fault of their own.  On the other, a candidate who when informed of an imminent pandemic declares, “It is only one or two cases and will be over soon.”  Who when told his own vice-president is in danger of harm  says, “So what?”  And this week falsely accuses immigrants of syphoning life-saving resources being sent to disaster zones.

What better civics lesson than one you can see unfold in real time.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Better Late Than Never

Culture, Politics

I had a dream which I shared with readers on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.  The finale of Kamala Harris’ and Tim Walz’ coming out party would be a live performance of Beyoncé’s “Freedom,” accompanied by Taylor Swift.  Privately, however, I lamented my fantasy trifecta which included Bruce Springsteen would never happen since “The Boss” had booked a concert in Pittsburgh that night.

The United Center in Chicago would be rocking, but it was not about the music.  It was each performer’s targeted message that confirmed the central theme of the Harris/Walz campaign.  The Democratic ticket knows success depends on the extent to which the campaign can energize two constituencies and narrow Donald Trump’s advantage with a third.

There is no question this is a “turnout” election.  At the top of that list are minorities and women.  And the biggest challenge is motivating younger members of these cohorts.  Swift is the messenger of empowerment for young women.  Likewise, in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement, Beyoncé is the oracle of African-American empowerment.  Who better to remind potential voters in these demographics that their aspirational paths are more easily traversed in an environment of hope and opportunity rather than one of hate and retribution.

However, that is not enough.  Every Democratic pundit constantly reminds us Harris cannot win if Trump’s margin among white voters, and especially white men, eclipses her advantage among traditional Democratic voters.  Which is why yesterday may have been the most important 24 hours in the last month of this election cycle.

It started with the joint appearance by Harris and Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Unlike so many of Harris’ rally, the audience was as vanilla as you’ll ever see at a Democratic event.  This historic event did something no previous rally or Harris TV appearance could do.  Because it was unprecedented, it HAD to be covered by all the media outlets.  And how did Cheney use this opportunity?  First, she delivered a civics lesson about the what her party used to stand for:  smaller government, lower taxes, a strong military and global leadership.  These are all the things she told us she looks forward to debating in the future.

And then, knowing that right-wing media were under-reporting evidence of Trump’s criminal acts in Jack Smith’s recent filing, Cheney shared critical excerpts with the those at the event and the television audience.” And then she put the last nail in the coffin.  Before lowering the hammer, she reminded us that once GOP candidates ran under the banner of “compassionate conservativism.”  Then BAM, no one who says “So what!” when he is told that his own vice-president is in harm’s way has a compassionate bone in his body.  According to Cheney, the only word to describe such behavior is “depravity.”

That was just Act I of this morality play.  As the Harris/Cheney love fest was winding down, Springsteen released a video in which he endorsed the Harris/Walz ticket.  It contained what may be the most subliminal, yet powerful message possible (below).

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are committed to a vision of this country that respects and includes everyone, regardless of class, religion, race, your political point of view or sexual identity.  That’s the vision of America I’ve been consistently writing about for 55 years.

He could have been more heavy-handed.  “You know why you come to my concerts and stream my albums.  You are drawn to the same things that inspired me to write the lyrics and compose the music.  A vote for Donald Trump is a denial of that bond between me the entertainer and you the audience all these years.”  But Springsteen respects his fans too much to insult their intelligence.

I still dream of Beyoncé, Swift and Springsteen on stage together.  But if it comes the night Harris is declared the winner or at an inaugural concert on the Washington mall, I am okay with that.  It is now up to us ensure it happens.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

P.S.  I confess, Springsteen was never on my playlists, and  I could not name more than two of his songs.  But, as I write this post, I have been listening to a live recording of his December 14, 2023 concert in Boston.  And I was inspired.  So, as the title of today’s post says, “Better late than never.”

Day Two

Politics, Uncategorized

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley warns, “A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris,” suggesting that re-electing the aged and addled president would almost certainly vault the vice president into the Oval Office within the next four years.

Liz Peek/Fox News/September 1, 2023

Remember back in the fall of 2023 when Republicans ghoulishly predicted Joe Biden would not survive a second term, ensuring the ascension of Kamala Harris, an outcome Haley declared should “…send a chill up every American’s spine.”  After watching last night’s debate, I have an even greater fear which has nothing to do with Donald Trump’s health or mortality.  Let me explain.

We know what “Day One” of a second Trump administration would look like.  For someone who has been unable to give a cogent answer about his policy positions, he has been crystal clear about actions he would take immediately following the inaugural parade.  The list, compiled by a Washington Post review of Trump speeches since launching his campaign on November 15, 2022, include:

  • An executive order replacing 50,000 federal civil servants with loyalists vetted by the Heritage Foundation.
  • Pardoning his supporters who attacked law enforcement officers and defaced the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
  • Starting “the largest deportation operation in American history.”
  • Dismantle the Affordable Care Act.
  • Bringing the Department of Justice, Federal Reserve and FCC under total control of the president.
  • End “birthright citizenship” which is enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
  • Restrict travel from countries with substantial Muslim populations.
  • Cut funding to school districts which mandate vaccines or mask mandates.
  • Repeal Biden’s executive order which expanded background checks for purchasers of firearms.

Not specifically included in the Post’s compendium is directing the Department of Justice to drop federal investigations and indictments related to January 6, 2021, mishandling of classified documents and obstruction of justice.

Which brings me to “Day Two.”  It will likely mirror the final scene in Michael Ritchie’s 1972 film, “The Candidate.”  Similar to fictional senator-elect Bill McKay (Robert Redford), Trump will retire to the White House residence, sit on the edge of his bed, look at whichever sycophant he makes chief of staff, and ask, “What do we do now?”  By midnight January 20, 2025, Trump will have achieved everything he wanted to do.  Demonstrate he could beat “sleepy Joe” and “crazy Kamala.”  Make the specter of more convictions and potential prison time go away.  It may not be the next day, but sometime before January 20, 2029, I believe he will declare victory and go home.  

Which is my takeaway from last night’s vice-presidential debate.  To quote Nikki Haley, the prospect of a J.D. Vance presidency “sends a chill up my spine.”  For two reasons.  First, as clearly demonstrated during the debate, Vance put “Slick Willy” Clinton to shame.  His ability to lie with such verbal aplomb is frightening.  Based on a CNN snap poll of debate watchers, a very narrow majority (51-49 percent) declared Vance the winner, attesting to his ability to effectively sell bullshit.

Second, and more importantly, while Trump has tried to distance himself from Project 2025, Vance is wedded to it.  Vance’s selection as VP candidate was engineered by the Heritage Foundation.  To fully appreciate his devotion to Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts, one need only read Vance’s foreword to Roberts’ forthcoming book By Dawn’s Early Light, which includes the following.

Roberts is articulating a fundamentally Christian view of culture and economics, recognizing that virtue and material progress go hand in hand.

The old conservative movement argued if you just got government out of the way, natural forces would resolve problems.  We are no longer in this situation and must take a different approach.

So much for small government conservatism and “the invisible hand” of economic markets.

And Vance describes this “different approach,” not as a conversation about ideas, but in terms of armed conflict.  He refers to Roberts’ perspective and specific proposals as “essential weapons in the fights that lay ahead.”  And ends his endorsement of the book’s content with a call “to circle the wagons and load the muskets.”  (If only the Supreme Court originalists had ruled that muskets were the only firearms the Founding Fathers thought should be covered by the Second Amendment.)

But there is good news.  Dare I say, last night’s debate was a second tier remake of the October 3, 2000 debate between George W. Bush and Al Gore, with much the same outcome.  Gore was perceived as the articulate, policy-wise alternative but came across as impatient and condescending.  Gore campaign advisor Paul Begala summed up the effect on the audience of his candidate’s dismissal of Bush as a worthy opponent.

For all of Gore’s good answers, his feelings for Bush was his fatal flaw. You can’t afford to look across the stage with that kind of contempt at someone who millions of people have nominated as their standard-bearer.

The details of the CNN post-debate poll echo these exact sentiments.  In terms of likeability, 59 percent of viewers said they had a favorable view of Walz (up 13 points from a pre-debate poll) while only 22 percent gave him an unfavorable rating.  Even though Vance’s favorability rose 11 points to 41 percent, he remained underwater with a 44 percent unfavorable score.  And what is often viewed as the most important polling factor, debate watchers, by a margin of 48 to 35 percent chose Walz over Vance when it came to which candidate “is more in touch with the needs and problems of people like me.”

In summary both candidates were winners when it came to achieving their goals.  Vance succeeded in rounding off some of the sharp edges of his personality and positions, but not enough to make him more likeable than Walz.  Walz, the lesser known of the two when selected to be Harris’ running mate, solidified his credibility as qualified to step into the presidency, if necessary, according to 65 percent of the those who watched the debate.

As is generally the case when it comes to vice-presidential debates, October 1, 2024 will not be remembered as the defining moment of this presidential election.

POSTSCRIPT: THE BIGGEST LOSERS

This one is simple.  Ron DeSantis and the “Free State of Florida.”  Vance is now the heir apparent to what has become the MAGA (nee Trump’s Republican) Party.  And “anti-wokeness” decided to take a nap during the vice-presidential debate.  No mention of critical race theory.  Or transgender athletes.  No defense of book banning.  And admission by Vance that America is a diverse nation.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP