I am not a member of an organized political party. I am a democrat!
~Will Rogers
If you think this post is going to focus on how the panderer-in-chief Donald Trump continues to play to his base with Twitter rants and inexcusable support of a stalker of teenagers, you are dead wrong. The support of one’s base voters runs both ways. Neither party can win elections with only the registered members of their respective parties. This month, Gallup asked survey respondents, “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republic, a Democrat or an independent?” The results:
Republican/25 percent
Democrat/30 percent
Independent/42 percent
But if you’re a Democrat running in Alabama where 62.1 percent of voters chose Trump in 2016, the need to reach outside your base is even more important. Which is why, Wednesday, I felt the urge to throw my hands up into the sky and scream! Both MSNBC and CNN were playing Alabama Senate Candidate Doug Jones latest campaign ad. It consisted of pictures and names of the nine unfortunate woman who, as teenagers, had been pursued and, in some cases, violated by Jones’ opponent former Alabama supreme court chief justice Roy Moore. Both cable news outlets characterized the commercial as “powerful.” But towards what end?
Did Doug Jones and his campaign staff learn nothing from the 2016 presidential election cycle? Remember the Clinton “Our children are watching” ad which was described by Time Magazine described as “memorable.” (Time, August 30, 2016) Memorable also does not win elections. Trump supporters and undecided voters already knew Donald Trump was a vulgar, offensive narcissist. The last thing they needed was Hillary Clinton piling on. In fact, her campaign focus on “the other guy” probably reinforced the belief by many that she wanted your vote because she was the lesser of two evils. A positive national campaign, juxtaposed with media coverage of Trump’s flaws, would have been much more effective among swing voters.
But that is only half the lesson. What is more disconcerting is that every successful Democratic candidate in this month’s off-year elections wrote the manual on how to win even among the most red electorates. Take Danica Roem, the transgender Democratic who defeated a 15 year incumbent Republican to become the legislative delegate in Virginia’s 13th district. She did not run a single ad reminding voters that her opponent was the author of the Virginia version of the North Carolina bathroom bill or that he proudly referred to himself as the Old Dominion’s “chief homophobe.” Every voter in the 13th district already knew that thanks to media coverage of the contest. Instead, Roem found an issue of local importance and campaigned on doing something about it.
Unfortunately Doug Jones failed the course. His latest ads have only re-energized Moore’s base. Consider the following. Before the Republican candidate’s behavior toward teenage girls became national headlines, Moore was favored in two local polls (Fox10 and WBRC-TV) by 11 percent. When Jones left reporting of the scandal to the news media and offered no comment, those numbers flipped. Fox News showed Jones leading by eight points; Gravis by five points. But the most recent WBRC-TV poll shows Moore back in the lead.
There are good reasons why Doug Jones is not just the alternative to a stalker of teenage girls.
- Alabamans claim they are for law and order. While Moore was relieved of his supreme court position for failure to enforce the law, Jones put KKK members in jail for the murder of four black girls as a result of the bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church in 1963.
- Republicans say they need Moore’s vote to pass their heartless tax bill. Jones should talk about why the bill is BAD for the majority of Alabamans, which it is.
- Jones can side with the 95 percent of Americans who support universal background checks while pledging not to support legislation that would in any way confiscate guns from lawful owners.
Or he can stay the course his campaign has charted this week and lose an election which is the best chance Democrats have to capture a solid red Senate seat. But more importantly, Jones has an opportunity to prove his party can effectively represent local interests in states outside the Northeast and West Coast.
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP