The last thing America needs during the 2022 mid-terms is more ammunition to affirm election deniers’ charges elections are stolen or rigged. Yet that is exactly what every major polling organization is doing.

What better reason to call “foul” than situations where a candidate with a multiple point lead in the polls is defeated by an underdog. Of course, there could be good reasons for that happening. Undecided voters break strongly in one direction during the final days of the campaign. A candidate’s overachieving ground game produces a higher than expected turnout in his/her favor. First-time voters who are motivated by a single issue, e.g. a woman’s right to choose, are underrepresented in the polling sample. A candidate makes a major gaffe in the closing days of the campaign.

However, if you are looking for a reason to challenge the outcome, it is much easier to simply say, “My candidate was ahead in the polls and lost. Something is rotten in the State of (pick your favorite battleground arena). A perfect example is the special election last August in New York’s 19th Congressional District between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan. All six polls had Molinaro ahead. Data for Progress, which conducted its poll the week before the election, had Molinaro winning 53 to 45 percent with a margin of error of plus/minus three points. On election night, Ryan, riding the wave of dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, came out on top by a 51-49 margin.

Or the ballot iniative in Kansas to repeal the state constitution provision protecting reproductive choice. Inital polls showed a seven percent plurality of Kansas voters in support of the measure. The actual vote turned out to be 60-40 percent opposed. Fortunately, the margin was large enough to make any challenge laughable.

But there is an even more serious problem for the mid-terms. Due to timing, sampling techniques and the design of the survey, in some cases the polls contradict one another. Take the generic vote for Congress. Yesterday, the Politico/Morning Consult poll gave Democrats a five point edge. This morning, a USA Today/Suffolk poll said the Republicans have a four point advantage. Further confusing the situation is internal inconsistency within these same polls. P/MC show Joe Biden with the highest disapproval rating (55 percent) of any major poll. On their same survey, USAT/S found Biden leading Trump by four points if the president election was held today.

There is only one conclusion. There are so many dynamics affecting voter sentiment in these mid-terms, nobody, and I mean nobody should be predicting the outcome. And by doing so with so much inconsistent data, pollsters and pundits set up the worst of all possible outcomes. No matter who loses, there will be circumstantial evidence from voter surveys which can be used to justify claims of possible election tampering.

Too bad none of the surveys include the following. “Do you believe America would be better off if political consultants, polling organizations and the media waited until I voted before telling me who will win?”

POSTSCRIPT: A PENCE FOR YOUR THOUGHTS

I live in a very “red” area of Florida with 3:1 GOP voter registration that favored that other guy by a wide margin in 2020. However, I see fewer and fewer Trump signs and bumper stickers. Perhaps the House Select Committee hearings, if not changing minds, has made it more embarrassing for MAGA World to admit their allegiance to the Donald. What I find more puzzling are those cultists who have not removed their Trump/Pence bumper stickers. Do they really think Pence will be on the 2024 ticket if Trump does run again? Or that Pence would get his endorsement in an open primary?

If not for the possibility of getting arrested for vandalism, imagine taking a Sharpie and adding the word “Vote” in front of Trump and “Hang” before Pence. At least then, it would reflect MAGA World’s current reality.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP