This morning POLITICO.COM released a Morning Consult survey of likely GOP 2024 primary voters. The question, “What is important to you in your choice for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?” #1: A conservative (79 percent). #2: Under the age of 70 (69 percent). No surprises there. But #3 gets interesting. Has decades of political experience (53 percent). Taken together, #2 and #3 suggest these voters are ready to abandon Trump.
Two caveats. First, the article was not clear whether these were choices Morning Consult presented to respondents or if it was an open-ended question. What is conspicuously absent is an attribute that seems to be the GOP’s core political strategy, “Owning the Libs.” That is what creates the energy at campaign rallies regardless of the candidate. After all, from the Republican party’s point of view, their prime directive is to save America from the “wascally wadical wabbits from non-wed states.” (NOTE: Even I was not expecting the connection between Jean-Luc Picard and Elmer Fudd.)
Second, attribute #3 refers to “political experience.” What does that mean? Does someone who constantly runs for office but never wins meet that standard? Did it imply “government” or “Washington, D.C.” experience? Even those terms are less than monolithic. Consider the presidents from 1932 to today and their experience before taking the presidential oath of office.
- Franklin Roosevelt (governor)
- Harry Truman (senator and vice-president)
- Dwight Eisenhower (general)
- John Kennedy (senator)
- Lyndon Johnson (senator and vice-president)
- Richard Nixon (senator and vice-president)
- Gerald Ford (congressman and vice-president)
- Jimmy Carter (governor)
- Ronald Reagan (governor)
- George H. W. Bush (congressman, CIA director, vice-president)
- Bill Clinton (governor)
- George W. Bush (governor)
- Barack Obama (senator)
- Donald Trump (?)
- Joe Biden (senator and vice-president)
With the two exceptions of Eisenhower and Trump, the ebb and flow of how a future president cuts his teeth in public service is obvious. From Truman to Ford, the most likely path was through Congress. Carter to W. was dominated by governors. In 2008, the pendulum swung back to legislators with one unfortunate exception.
You surely know by now I am not someone who is going to give Republicans advice how to take back the White House. I do not have to. They already came up and executed the game plan. I was “not in the room” but I was in the building in 1999 when every Republican governor decided to pick one of their own as the GOP nominee. They then unanimously endorsed W. As soon as each one announced they favored a fellow governor instead of anyone else from their own state, the contest was over. Non-governors who challenged Bush including John McCain, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes collectively garnered less than one-third of the total primary votes.
Here is why, even if they wanted to, the GOP could not duplicate this strategy in 2024. First, as demonstrated above, Republican senators are not going to concede the nomination to a governor. They know this is again the era of Senate chamber to Oval Office.
Second, GOP governors had control in several important primary states including Pennsylvania (Tom Ridge), New Jersey (Christine Whitman), Ohio (Bob Taft), Nevada (Kenny Guinn), Michigan (John Engler), Illinois (George Ryan), Connecticut (John Rowland) and of course Florida (Jeb Bush). Democrats now hold the governorship in five of those eight states.
Third, and maybe most important, the likelihood of a united front among the governors is slim to none. Why? Because the potential field runs the gamut along the MAGA/anti-MAGA continuum. Chris Sununu (NH) or Larry Hogan (MD) are not going to align with Ron DeSantis (FL) or Kristi Noem (SD). Nikki Haley (SC) and Asa Hutchinson (AR) fall somewhere in between.
So Democrats, you have approximately six months to stock up on the popcorn. We are more likely to see a replay of 2016 where Donald Trump plays whack-a-mole with the alternative du jour than a sequel to 2000: The World According to Bush.
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP