Random observations with two days to go.

When the Choir Doesn’t Pay Attention

Last Tuesday I had a conversation with a strong Harris supporter who raised two concerns about the election outcome.  This 100 percent Harris voter was distressed that the Harris campaign had run an ineffective campaign.  Then said Harris had spent all her time running against Trump without telling us what she’s for.  My response?  Have you watched any of the rallies?  Have you looked at the analysis of her program versus Trump’s by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget?  Do you think these Zoom calls with Republicans for Harris, evangelicals for Harris, etc. which draw 40,000 to 70,000 participants happen by accident?

Yesterday, I was at a local festival and ran into a friend who is an environmental activist.  I assumed she was voting for both Harris and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democrat running for Senate against Rick Scott.  She did not know who Mucarsel-Powell was.  Someone is not doing their job, but that is not going to be resolved between now and 7:00pm on Tuesday.

So, it is up to each of us to fill this gap in the next two days.  The next time someone tells you watching another Harris rally is preaching to the choir, the reply should be, “I know you think you have heard it before, but were you listening?”  And never assume the outreach includes down-ballot Democratic candidates.

The Light in a Dark Red County

When you live in a deep red jurisdiction such as Nassau County, Florida, odds are pretty good at some time you will buy products from or be served by someone who is a MAGA supporter.  It is what it is.  What I do not understand is why any business owners or employees would post political messages in their facilities or on their commercial vehicles.  In downtown Fernandina Beach there are stores with Trump propaganda. My auto mechanic posted a “Make America Great Again” at their checkout counter.  I need not tell you how often I now patronize these establishments.

Which is why, on Friday morning, I was so pleasantly surprised when an employee of a local home equipment company pulled into our driveway which is surrounded by Harris and down-ballot Democratic candidate signs.  After we introduced ourselves, he asked, “Has anyone stolen your  yard signs?”  When I said no, he told me that he and his wife have been the victims twice of someone removing their signs.  When we agreed he would come back on November 8 to finish the job, he made the point that hopefully we would know if Harris was president-elect by then.

I know, this is just one person.  But it is the demographic who is the target of Trump’s populist message.  And at least in this case, another four years of hate, grievance and chaos may be as unattractive to a broader audience than we might assume.

The 361

Forget 538, the total number of electoral votes and the election prediction site founded and formally run by Nate Silver.  The number that explains disbelief on both sides of the aisle that the outcome could possibly be so close is 361, the number of polling organizations trying to gauge the pulse of the electorate.  With that many players there are bound to be differences in methodology.  Consider the following

• Embarrassed by their missed calls before the 2022 midterms, several pollsters readjusted their sampling which they already adjusted when they under-sampled Trump supporters in 2016.
• Many pollsters base their sample on the historic turnout by different population cohorts, e.g., older voters.  Twenty million Gen-Z voters have been added to the rolls since 2020.   Polling of this demographic suggests they are breaking for Harris 2:1.
• Women are making up the larger present of new registrants, first-time voters and early voters.  Perhaps they are being under-sampled.
• As I blogged last week, maybe there is a silent, scared majority who are keeping their preference to themselves.

Elections are not won or lost by looking at national averages of all voters.  The best preview of what could happen Tuesday night is the Des Moines Register poll conducted by Selzer & Co., headed by its president J. Ann Selzer, recognized as one of the most reliable pollsters in the business.  At 4:00 pm Saturday,  the Register released its final tabulation of likely Iowa voters in which Harris held a shocking three point statewide lead over Trump.  To put this in context, the same poll had Trump leading Joe Biden in June by 18 points.

Throughout this election cycle, I have said, “If Harris can carry the women’s vote 60-40, nothing else matters.”  The Iowa poll gives Harris a 56-36 edge among female voters.  Other subsets of the poll show Trump with a five point lead in enthusiasm, a 14 point lead among men, a whopping 53 point lead among evangelicals and an eight point lead in the 35-54 age category. 

It doesn’t matter.  Women, in the post-Dobbs era, understand they are the only ones who can protect themselves, whether Donald Trump likes it or not.

Signs of the Times

Speaking of voter enthusiasm, this morning when I was walking our rescue dog, I made two observations why this year appears to be different from 2016 and 2020.  In a middle-income neighborhood made up of duplexes, which had its share of Trump/Pence yard signs in the last two elections, this year there were four Harris/Walz signs and NO Trump signs.  (below)

In an upper-middle class neighborhood, I came across a Trump sign from 2020 on which the homeowner had covered Pence’s name with duct tape.  At best, you cannot tell me a high-enthusiasm MAGA voter could not find the time and energy to replace their old sign with the updated one.  At worst, maybe they think reminding voters Pence is no longer on the MAGA ticket is preferential to reminding them who replaced the former vice president.

Epilogue

So keep your powder dry.  Don’t be rattled by the polls. But take nothing for granted.  Then get inspired for the election day push by watching Monday night’s live stream “get out the vote” extravaganza linking rallies in all seven battleground states.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP