The Sunday talk shows were abuzz with stories about the speed at which the Taliban erased 20 years of nation building in Afghanistan.  Many prognosticators had envisioned an ISIS-like reemergence to fill the avoid following an American and allied withdrawal.  But the scope and pace of the demise of the Afghan government challenges the imagination and explains why a country often referred to as “the graveyard of empires” earns its name again and again.  The list seems endless.  Persians.  Greeks. Arabs. Mongols. Sikhs. British. Soviets.  And finally the U.S. and NATO.  To paraphrase an Italian proverb, “Fool me eight times, WTF!”

What I do not understand is why anyone would be surprised by how rapidly the Taliban took advantage of the situation.  Have we not seen this movie before.  Where and when, you ask?  America!  2021!

For 233 years, the United States existed as a democracy in which the peaceful transition of power took place on each and every one of 45 occasions.  The losers conceded and the winners took office.  Violence played no part.  Until January 6, 2021.  However, if you think I am comparing the insurrectionists at the U.S. Capitol to Sunday’s occupation of the presidential office in Kabul, you are mistaken.

The better analogy is the ongoing effort to change the method by which our leaders are chosen.  And the elected and appointed GOP officials who have promoted and enabled the change.  The “big lie” was an opportunity for the American Taliban to go on the offensive just as the withdrawal of allied troops from Afghanistan opened the door for the Afghan Taliban to return to power.

It is difficult to tell who stole the battle plan from whom.  Just like their middle eastern counterparts, the American Taliban started its assault at the provincial (i.e. state) level.  One by one Republican governors and legislatures passed new laws to address non-existent voter fraud.  According to the Brennan Center for Justice, “Between January 1 and May 14, 2021, at least 14 states enacted 22 new laws that restrict access to the vote.”  Dozens more are already in progress or waiting in the wings.

However, many analysts have warned this is not about voter suppression.  If nothing else, we learned in 2020 those most affected by state and local voting laws and governors’ executive orders, making it harder to vote, showed they were willing to walk through fire to be heard.  When the GOP realized voter suppression tactics had the opposite effect, they moved in a new and more sinister direction.  Create methods by which Republican dominated legislatures could nullify the vote count.  In other words, if you disagree with the electoral outcome, ignore it.

In many of those states, despite persistent warnings, nominal opposition fell by the wayside as quickly as Afghan security forces, leaving a clear path for insurgents to achieve their goal of changing the rules by which elections are conducted.  Questions have been raised why Democratic leaders in these jurisdictions did not follow the example of Texas legislators who have used every tactic at their disposal to hold off this assault on democracy. Sadly, the national Democratic leadership has ignored the calls for help. A la Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, congressional Democrats fled the nation’s capital following the failure of a closure vote on the voting rights bill.  The next question is whether Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer will join the ranks of Ghani and Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf (aka Baghdad Bob), claiming “all is well” right up to the moment democracy is overrun.

But the future of democracy ultimately resides with “we, the people.”  As H. L. Mencken wrote, “People deserve the government they get, and they deserve to get it good and hard.”  With the exception of a few activists in each state, where is the uproar from the general populace?  Again, a situation analogous to current events in Afghanistan.  This week, we learned first hand the Ghani government had neither the respect nor loyalty of the 300,000 U.S. trained and equipped security forces or the millions of citizens we always assumed would stand up to the Taliban.  Likewise, it is one thing to declare a belief in democracy.  It is quite another to stand up for it.

While the battle, as was the case in Afghanistan, started at the subnational level, make no mistake.  If the GOP takes control of Congress in 2022, like Kabul, Washington will be the final domino to fall.  Certifying the electoral college vote will become more than a pro forma exercise, setting the stage for the ultimate assault on democracy in 2024.

If you thought the electoral college was counter to the principle of one-person, one vote best articulated by the Supreme Court in 1962 in the case of Baker v. Carr, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait until a contested election is decided under the following provisions of the 12th Amendment to the Constitution.

…the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.

You read that correctly.  If the GOP had succeeded in their effort not to count the state-certified electors from three jurisdictions in 2020, sole Wyoming representative Liz Cheney’s vote would have had the same weight as the 52 member congressional delegation from California.  And the 27 states with GOP-dominated House delegations could have thrown the election to Donald Trump despite the 7.5 million margin in the popular vote and 74 vote margin in the electoral college.

Not unlike Sunday morning, when Afghans woke up to the realization insurgents were at the gates of the city, Americans may have a similar experience days or weeks after November 5, 2024.  Only then will they understand it does not matter how they voted.  That is what happens when ballots are subject to what can only be described as a “Tally Ban.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP