All posts by Dr. ESP

I Do

Politics

“You talkin’ to me?” 

That is how I felt this morning when Joe Scarborough suggested absolutely nobody believes the Biden campaign relishes a general election contest with Nikki Haley.  

The Biden campaign is trying to pretend she is not there.  They’re saying the general election’s begun.  Pretend last night didn’t happen.  Forget what Nikki Haley is saying.  Why?  Well, it’s very obvious.  They want to run against the crazy guy.  Who do you think, who on this planet, other than extreme MAGAs think, believes Joe Biden wants to run against [Haley]?  Nobody!  Nobody!

I do, Joe.  You may be right about the Biden campaign.  But here is why Joe Biden should see a race against Nikki Haley as an opportunity, not only to win re-election, but also to make true conservatives and mainstream Republicans realize that their party needs to be reconstructed from the ground up.

Let’s start with a few facts.

  1. One of the reasons, if not the most important, for Trump’s third run for president is his many legal problems.  His hope is that a Trump appointed attorney general will make all of the federal cases go away and make life miserable for Letitia James and Fani Willis.
  2. As long as he is a candidate for president, Trump can make the case (though untrue) that he is being persecuted by a weaponized Biden Justice Department.  All he needs is one juror in each of the criminal cases to believe him.
  3. To make that argument he must continue to run even if he does not win the Republican nomination.
  4. Entrance polls during the Iowa caucuses suggest that half of Republicans who cast ballots on January 15 identify as MAGA.  The number was closer to 25 percent last night in New Hampshire according to the exit polls.
  5. In his victory tirade last night, Trump predicted Haley would lose to Biden in the general election.

What should this tell us?  Trump will not take a Nikki Haley nomination lying down.  If he felt humiliated losing to Joe Biden, imagine the outrage from failing to secure the nomination of a party he supposedly controls.  If Haley does win in November, the Trump myth (“Only I can do it.) suffers one more embarrassing moment.

There are three ways to make sure she does not become president.  Launch a write-in campaign.  (“If Sleepy Joe Biden can do it, certainly I can.”) Run as an independent.  Tell his voters they should stay home (a la the Georgia Senate run-offs in 2020).  In a previous blog, I suggested approximately 17 percent of GOP voters are “Forever Trump” loyalists and will do whatever he asks them to do.  That is the percent of Trump’s 2020 vote over his 2016 total.  In other words, these are new Republicans Trump is largely responsible for bringing into the GOP tent.

The media and many Democratic pundits spend a lot of time focusing on the impact of third party candidates on Biden’s chances of winning.  All of the major polling companies have created hypotheticals in which the options include Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornell West and Jill Stein.  There have also been a few polls based on the speculation Joe Manchin will run on the No Labels ticket.  You know what NO ONE has tested.  A three-way race with Biden, Haley and Trump. If my 17 percent estimate in anywhere close to correct, Biden could win even the least competitive state with 40 percent of the vote. 

Based on Biden’s 2020 percentage in each state, he would have a better than even chance to carry Alaska, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.  In which case, Biden would win 449 electoral votes compared to a total of 89 for Trump or Haley.  That would be a hard reality to spin, but of course Trump will declare Biden and Haley colluded to defeat him.  The question is whether the Republicans who still reside on Earth One will finally board the escape pods to avoid another MAGA Starship implosion.

It also makes life worse for every other Republican running for office who will face the following dilemma.  If both Trump and Haley are on the ballot, a GOP candidate for House or Senate will be forced to make a choice.  And the only impact that will have will be to alienate supporters of one of the two “conservative” opponents.  It gets worse if Trump tells his loyalists to stay home.  Consider the following data provided by BALLOTPEDIA.COM.

  • In 2022, 85 congressional races (ten Senate and 75 House) were decided by ten percentage points or fewer.
  • Of those, Republicans won four Senate seats (WI, NC, OH, AK) and 30 house seats.
  • A defection of just 6.21 percent of GOP voters would have flipped three of the Senate races.

So, here is my question for Joe Scarborough.

Who do you think, who on this planet, believes a man who has already tried to delegitimize the Constitution, the electoral process, the rule of law and our system of justice would hesitate to delegitimize the Republican Party to serve his own interests?  Nobody!  Nobody!

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

MYgration

Politics

A woman and two children drowned in the Rio Grande on Friday night in Eagle Pass, Texas, after U.S. border agents were prevented from responding, federal officials said Saturday.

In a statement, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said U.S. Border Patrol agents were made aware of the migrants’ distress by the Mexican government but were unable to enter the area from the U.S. side after Texas National Guard troops, under the direction of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, prevented them from doing so.

~Dennis Romero/NBC News

Excuse me, but isn’t Greg Abbott the one who claimed to be pro-life when he signed the most draconian anti-abortion legislation in the country post-Dobbs. Governor, how is the above incident “pro-life?”

This tragic event occurred one day following the latest email from my favorite “do nothing” U.S. representative Aaron Bean (R-FL4).  He posted the following:

This week, I took to the House floor to refute President Biden’s false claim that Republicans are to blame for the border crisis. It’s this administration’s open border policies that have directly resulted in the invasion happening along the southern border.

Americans know the truth. Our southern border remains open for one reason and one reason only: because President Biden refuses to shut it down.

If only the congressman would spend less time watching (and appearing on) Fox News and read any analysis about the increase in global migration.  He might learn the “flood” of migrants at our southern border is the result of lingering economic impacts from the pandemic, climate change and political persecution.  And as he tends to do, he once again equated talk with action.  Here are the three actions he took in response to what he calls an “invasion.”

  • Made a speech on the House floor.
  • Sent a letter to New York City mayor Eric Adams.
  • Appeared on Fox News to “discuss [Homeland Security] Secretary Mayorka’s dereliction of duty.”

What he did not do was propose an alternative to the bipartisan efforts in the Senate to address the issue, a compromise he opposes.

There is no question the border situation needs attention, but the real issue becomes clearer when viewed through a historical perspective.  Although the number of immigrants seeking entry into the United States may be at an all-time high, the total is a significantly lower percentage of the current U.S. population.  In 1907, 1,004,756 immigrants were processed through Ellis Island at a time when the total U.S. population was only 87 million.  In other words, America absorbed immigrants who made up an increase of 1.15 percent of its current population.  In contrast, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports just over 2.5 million migrants sought entry at the southern border in 2023 when the total U.S. population was 335.9 million for what would amount to an absorption rate of 0.74 percent.

On a more personal note, both my paternal and maternal grandparents came through Ellis Island during the early 1900s.  They were seeking refuge from the pogroms, organized efforts to eliminate or expel ethic and religious minorities, particularly Jews, from Russia and eastern Europe.  They did not speak English.  As documented by Lesley Kennedy on HISTORY.COM, over 80 percent of the arrivals at Ellis Island were processed and released within a few hours.  And less than two percent were denied entry.  Which raises some obvious questions.

  • What is so different about the aspiring immigrants  at the southern border versus those, like my ancestors, who entered the U.S. via Ellis Island?
  • What criteria were used to determine eligibility that resulted in only two percent being denied entry?
  • How could processing, without the benefit of modern technology, take only hours when today there is a backlog which can delay disposition of asylum requests for weeks, months and even years?

Kennedy suggests efficiencies were gained by a staggered system of sorting and screening.  First, immigrants arriving by boat provided basic information to officials when boarding the ship in Europe.  Upon arrival, two lines were formed, one with women and children, the other with men.  Medical examinations for communicable diseases were performed by military surgeons and individuals with health issues were quarantined.   The others were then questioned to verify the information provided on the ship manifest.  Only those with red flags were detained pending appeals.

This is not rocket science.  A similar system could be built with cooperation by the Mexican and other Latin American countries.  Screening of immigrants for disease, criminal background and drug smuggling (issues that are frequently raised by fearmongers) could be addressed before asylum seekers reach the border.  It would cost money, but that too could be addressed with a little creativity.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, no bastion of liberal orthodoxy, claims on its website: 

America has grown and thrived because we attract and welcome the hardest working and most talented people to our shores. They come here to pursue their dreams and build their lives. However, today’s immigration system falls far short of meeting the needs of our society, our economy, our businesses, and our workers. The U.S. Chamber works for smart immigration policy reforms so the U.S. can boost economic growth, create jobs, and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship.

If this is true, one can imagine the Chamber and pro-business Republicans supporting an annual fee for each non-citizen employee a company hires who holds a green card or work visa to create an Ellis Island like system to expedite processing of aspiring immigrants.  This is, of course, if they really want to solve the problem, unlike House members like Aaron Bean who just want to bitch about it.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Patriot Games

Culture

Wake up, Maggie, I think I got somethin’ to say to youIt’s late September and I really should be back at school.

~Rod Steward/”Maggie May”

Following the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by election deniers, there has been a push for civics to be taught at every education level from kindergarten to college.  Ironically, the movement has been led by some of the same people who supported efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.  As reported by the New York Times last November, the governors of Florida, South Dakota and Virginia are at the forefront of this movement.  Implementation of their stated goal is even more problematic.  Though supporters of the new standards claim they hope to make instruction less ideological, the Times reports the curriculum reflects conservative positions and values.

Though I often write about things I know little about, I do believe my three degrees in American Government (B.A. from UVA) and Political Science (M.A. and Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins) afford me the right to weigh in on this topic.  The curriculum at both universities focused on process.  What authority does the Constitution give each branch of government?  Which decisions are reserved for the federal government and which for the states?  How have Supreme Court decisions from Marbury v. Madison to Nixon (1803) v. United States (1974) added flesh to the framework adopted in 1789?  And finally, in times of crisis, how has that framework ensured preservation of the founders’ vision and ideals for America and when has it failed?

Implementation of Florida’s newly adopted curriculum appears to be going in a different direction.  The state Department of Education turned to two conservative entities to develop the workshop in which Florida teachers are trained to deliver the revised standards.  Hillsdale College, a private conservative liberal arts college in Michigan whose general counsel Ian Norton helped plan the fake electors scheme in his home state.  And the Bill of Rights Institute founder by major Republican donor Charles Koch.  One example of the their impact on the curriculum is promoting an “originalist” view of the U.S. constitution with no mention of the opposing philosophy of a “living constitution” which argues the document must evolve in response to societal change.

Whenever Governor Ron DeSantis talks about the need for civics education he uses the word “patriots” instead of “citizens.”  Interesting, because the Constitution defines who is and who is not a citizen under the 14th Amendment, Section 1.1.2 referred to as the “Citizenship Clause Doctrine.”  The words “patriot” and “patriotism” do not appear anywhere in the original document or any of the amendments.  Why?  Because patriotism is subjective, as we learned on January 6, 2021.  For some the patriots that day where law enforcement officers who ensured Congress could carry out its responsibility to count the electoral vote.  For others, the “patriots” were those who breached the Capitol walls in an attempt to overturn a free and fair election.

But let me end on a positive note.  In the previous blog “The Lady Doth Protest Too Much,” I described my own experience attending segregated schools in Richmond, Virginia.  At the time, Black students could only attend Maggie L. Walker High School, named for the first African-American woman to found and serve as president of a United States chartered bank.  Founded in 1937, the school closed in 1990.  The renovated building reopened in 2001 as the Maggie L. Walker Governor’s School for Government and International Studies devoted to a mission that:

…will develop life-long learners who embrace the responsibility of citizenship, the value of ethical leadership, and the richness of diverse cultures.

A picture of the current student population suggests American education can promote both solid citizenship and diversity.

In August 2014, Maggie Walker Governor’s School was ranked by Newsweek as the 12th best public high school in the U.S.  In 2023, their position rose to #8.  In 2022, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin supported legislation that would prohibit admissions policies used to promote diversity at Maggie Walker and other Governor’s Schools across the state.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The Lady Doth Protest Too Much

Culture

Dear Dr. ESP,

Here you go again.  A fourth post about Nikki Haley.  I’m beginning to think you have an unnatural obsession with the former governor.  What’s the deal?

~Same Imaginary Reader

Dear Imaginary, my interest in Haley is less about her as a presidential candidate and more about how she constantly reminds me how uncreative Americans can be when they want to avoid an inconvenient truth.  When it comes to her sensitivity to the role slavery plays in the Black experience, here is what Haley wants us to believe.

If you grow up in South Carolina, literally in second and third grade, you learn about slavery. You grow up and you have — you know, I had Black friends growing up. It is a very talked-about thing.

It was not just slavery that was talked about, It was more about racism that was talked about. It was more about, you know, we had friends, we had Black friends, we had White friends. But it was always a topic of conversation, even among our friends.

Every liar has a tell.  One of the most frequent is the need to pepper an explanation with unnecessary detail and repetition.  “If you grow up in South Carolina you learn about slavery” was not sufficient.  It happened “literally in the second and third grade.”  Then she refers to friends three times and her Black friends twice.  And she twice claims slavery and racism were a constant topic of conversation.

Haley’s life story suggests something quite different.  Whatever empathy she has for the Black experience did not result from her education.  Like the rest of us, it came from experience.  If she had learned about slavery in elementary school would she have needed the massacre at Mother Emanuel AME Church to finally realize the Confederate flag flying over the state capitol was “a deeply offensive symbol of a brutally offensive past.” (June 22, 2015)  She affirmed it was NOT her 2nd and 3rd grade lessons, when she admitted in the same speech, “The events of this week call upon us to look at this in a different way.”  As reported by the New York Times:

It was a dramatic turnabout for Ms. Haley, a second-term Republican governor who over her five years in the job has displayed little interest in addressing the intensely divisive issue of the flag.

Too bad that lesson had less impact than her elementary school curriculum.  In a December 6, 2019 interview with USA Today writer Susan Page, Haley backtracked again, claiming, “…you know, people [South Carolinians] saw it [the flag] as service, and sacrifice, and heritage” until the Mother Emanuel shooter, in her words, “hi-jacked it.”  Is that what all her Black friends told her?  I know one who did not, former RNC chair Michael Steel, who tweeted in response to the interview:

Really, Nikki?! The Confederate Flag represented “service, sacrifice and heritage”? To whom? The black people who were terrorized & lynched in its name? You said it should never have been there. Roof didn’t hijack the meaning of that flag, he inherited it.

Having grown up in the South mid-20th century, I did not learn the impact of slavery and racism on Black Americans from discussions with my African-American friends, as Nikki Haley alleges she did.  You know why.  I did not have any!  I went to segregated schools.  I went to the movies at segregated theaters.  I ate at segregated restaurants.  And when I entered the main gate at Parker Field to watch our hometown Triple-A Yankee farm team the Richmond Virginians, I saw how Black attendees could only enter through the gate to the right-field bleachers.

When the first African-Americans were admitted in 1966 to Thomas Jefferson High School, which I also attended, I did not need them to explain the legacy of slavery and Jim Crow.  The fact that it took 347 years, dating back to the arrival of the first African slaves in 1619, for these students to enter an institution named after the man who wrote “all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness,” was all I needed to know.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

On Plagiarism

Culture

The Middle East is not the only place subject to proportionate responses to attacks.  The following headline appeared in this morning’s edition of the New York Times.

Wife of Investor Who Pushed for Harvard President’s Exit Accused of Plagiarism

Without looking into the merits of the charge, the first thing that came to mind was a question.  Is it possible any prolific writer could be accused of intellectual theft?  And the Dr. ESP corollary, could I?

Regular readers of this blog know, I certainly make an effort to attribute quotations to the originator.  Additionally, some feedback to my recent book In the National Interest suggests the number of footnotes (over 250), at times, detracted from the pace of the narrative.  Looking back, however, I wonder whether a recent post did involve plagiarism.

My December 29, 2023 post “Word of the Year 2023” included the following sentence about reaction to Nikki Haley’s attempts to clean up her “gaffe” about the cause of the American Civil War.

This response was so ludicrous even Ron DeSantis accused her of trying to whitewash history (after which he vanished in a puff of irony).

As I was drafting the sentence, I self-acknowledged the parenthetical phrase had a ring of familiarity.  So, I Googled several variations of the phrase, the most generic being simply “puff of irony.”  No hits.  In the process, I did learn that many language experts believe “irony” is the most abused word in the English Language.  And that Glenn Burnett and Jeff Devlon wrote a book titled The Ironic Cloud in which they describe irony  as “…a powerful and incompletely understood feature of human dynamics.”

Believing I had satisfied my responsibility for due diligence, I included the passage.  Though there is always that possibility someone (most likely a satirist a la the late Mort Sahl) will contact me and demand I either give the originator credit or delete the phrase from the archived version of the post.  Which I would immediately do, no questions asked.

But what if that individual, instead, went to the New York Times with the story how a blogger masked his own plagiarism in December by posting a subsequent blog about how hard he tries not to steal others’ intellectual property.  If contacted by the Times for comment, I would tell them exactly what I shared above.  Would that be good enough?  When so many people are out for blood, it is hard to stop the flow from even the slightest wound.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP