All posts by Dr. ESP

The Mariel VoteLift

Politics

[Today’s post is an open letter to the Cuban-American community.]

Cuban-American support for Republican candidates has become a major factor when analyzing the success of GOP candidates, especially in my current state of residence Florida.  Pew Research reports there are approximately 1.4 million Cuban-Americans of voting age of which 65 percent live in the Sunshine State.  And they lean heavily toward the GOP.  In 2016, 54 percent of Florida Cuban-Americans voted for Donald Trump. Likewise, Ron DeSantis carried Miami-Dade County in 2022, a usually reliable blue firewall, with even greater support among Cuban-Americans.  To attract and sustain this advantage, the Republican message to this target population has largely been (paraphrasing), “We cannot elect Democrats who will make America the kind of socialist country, you know, the exact kind of country you escaped from when you came to America.”

Makes sense, with one caveat.  It is just not true.  Before the Castro revolution in 1959, Cuba was viewed as a land of opportunity with more migrants seeking residence than leaving.  The first wave of Cubans entering the U.S. following Fidel Castro’s takeover, often referred to as “Historical Exiles,” are described by Jorge Duany, professor of anthropology at Florida International University, in his research profile “Cuban Migration: A Post-revolution Exodus Ebbs and Flows.”

The majority were urban, middle-aged, well-educated, light-skinned, and white-collar workers. Most were born in the largest cities, particularly Havana. Many fled for political or religious reasons, fearing persecution by the revolutionary government. 

After this initial wave of immigrants to the U.S., Duany lists three reasons why Cuban residents continued to relocate in America.

  • Political persecution and harassment associated with political beliefs or practices.
  • Economic hardship due to a shortage of goods and services, low wages and limited employment.
  • Family reunification, reconnected with relatives who previously left Cuba.

For a non-Cuban-American, such as myself, it is hard to understand how this history justifies an overwhelming fealty to Republican policies and especially Donald Trump.  If you came to America because of political persecution and harassment, why would you support a candidate who is running on “retribution” for his enemies?  Who has said he would arrest and jail his political opponents?  Who promises to build internment camps for immigrants?  Imagine if Donald Trump had been president in 1960 when you fled to America to escape those exact conditions.

Furthermore, many of you opposed Fidel Castro’s close ties to the Soviet Union.  Yet, you prefer a candidate who publicly praises Vladimir Putin.  And more importantly, thwarts efforts to repel Russian dominance of Ukraine, a situation not unlike what you faced in the late 1950s.

If you came for family reunification, have you forgotten it was a Democratic president Barack Obama who normalized relations with the Cuban government allowing travel to be with relatives who remained in Cuba?  In 2017, Donald Trump reimposed those sanctions and restrictions on trade and travel.

And last but not least, polls suggest you believe GOP messaging that the Democrats are an existential threat to American capitalism.  Consider the following.  Since Castro’s rise to power Republicans have held the White House for seven four-year terms and the Democrats for six terms.  The average growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the Republican administrations has been 3.02 percent.  During Democratic administrations it is 3.98 percent.  And in those 63 years, how many U.S. industries have the Democrats nationalized?  Zero!

To be fair, any failure to make these connections between your own self-interests and allegiance to the GOP is not entirely your fault.  Democrat political leaders, especially in Florida, have not sufficiently engaged with the Cuban-American community to make the case why Democratic policies and outcomes over the past six decades are more in line with Cuban-American aspirations.  Without doing so, they should not expect, nor will there be, a change of attitude or voting behavior by Cuban-Americans.

Por lo que vale.
Dr. ESP

Truth and Consequences

Politics

[Today’s post is an open letter in response to Americans who have indicated they would never vote for Joe Biden based on his support of Israel following October 7, 2023.]

I know you are angry.  So am I.  So are most Israelis and Palestinians.  It takes a total lack of humanity to witness the bodies of innocent men, women and children killed by Hamas on October 7, 2023 or from Israel’s response and not be angry.  But that anger must not keep us from some inconvenient truths.  Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition government have the blood of Israelis on their hands by failing to advance the Oslo Accords.  And Yahya Sinwar and Hamas have the blood of Palestinians on their hands for promoting the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people.

This experience again proves what diplomats and generals always tell us.  “It is easy to start a war.  It is much harder to end one.” And the key to a successful outcome is often having not only a war plan, but having a plan for day one after the shooting ceases.  That hard lifting depends who is conducting the peace.  The Israelis and Palestinians have to decide if they believe the individuals–Netanyahu and Sinwar–who have proven they can be masters of war have the will to be masters of peace.

We Americans also have a role.  Our allies in the Middle East–Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and most importantly Saudi Arabia–have made it clear the United States is an essential partner in achieving that peace.  But only if we can be an honest broker.  And I understand many of you believe, due to American support for the Israeli military, U.S. policy favors Israel.  It is hard not to feel that way when, perhaps, members of your family or friends have died from American manufactured munitions.

No one can guarantee these 75 years of bloodshed will ever end.  But if we want to give peace one more chance, consider the following.  The United States will have a major role.  And the nature of that engagement depends on who sits in the Oval Office next year.  You say you will never support Joe Biden because of his support for Israeli genocide.  Yes, Joe Biden went to Israel and hugged Netanyahu immediately after October 7.  Yes, Joe Biden proposed more military aid to Israel.  But neither have the goal of Palestinian genocide.

If that were the case, what would explain Joe Biden being a consistent supporter of the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution as Obama’s vice-president, as a private citizen and now as the leader of the free world.  This is no last-minute conversion in response to Hamas’ terrorism.  In July 2023, months before the attack, Biden met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem and reaffirmed his belief the two-state solution was the best path to peace between Israelis and Palestinians.  In January, the U.S. abstained on a U.N. resolution to increase the flow of humanitarian aid despite the fact the resolution made no mention of Hamas’ attack on October 7 as the U.S. requested.  A position that opened Biden to criticism from many of his own party.  He has continuously criticized the Netanyahu government for expansion of West Bank settlements and for not taking a more targeted approach in the fight against Hamas militants. And in the vein of Harry Truman’s being the first world leader to recognize Israel on May 14, 1948, the same day Israel declared its independence, Biden has indicated he is considering the same for a Palestinian state created in compliance with the Oslo criteria.

Now consider the alternative.  Despite protests that more Jewish settlements on the West Bank were a violation of international law, Donald Trump supported Israel’s territorial claims over the West Bank.  The Netanyahu government rewarded this change in U.S. policy by naming one of the settlements Ramat Trump (Trump Heights) and putting a statue of a sabbath menorah and eagle honoring Trump at the entrance.  To further exacerbate the situation, Trump symbolically moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, although most diplomatic functions remain in Tel Aviv.  Trump’s vision for the Palestinians is a economic protectorate as laid out during a White House press conference with Netanyahu.  The fact Palestinians were not invited to participate in the announcement tells you all you need to know about the proposal.  Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the status of Gaza and the West Bank in the proposal as “a faux state.”

And there is no sign things would be different in a second Trump presidency.  Just this week we saw how Trump sold out U.S. interests in Europe for Vladimir Putin’s friendship.  Do Palestinians think the situation will be any different between Trump and Netanyahu?  Listen to Trump’s response to Israel’s execution of the war as reported by Brett Samuels of The Hill three days after the Hamas attack.

Former President Trump suggested in a new interview that the war between Israel and Hamas will just have to “play out” despite concerns about rising civilian casualties.

“So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out. You’re probably going to have to let it play out because a lot of people are dying,” Trump told Univision in an interview that aired Thursday night.

Please do not tell me you agree with these sentiments from a man who thinks people dying is a reason to let the death and destruction continue.  Peacefully protest U.S. policy toward Israel if you want.  But also keep in mind two undisputed facts.  First, even if you believe Israel is engaged in genocide with U.S. support, you make no friends promoting your own brand of genocide against Israel or the Jewish people.  Two, only one of the two candidates for president has been a life-long supporter of a Palestinian state as the only path to a lasting peace and has pushed Netanyahu to come to that same conclusion.

Shalom/Salam.
Dr. ESP

HARRIS-ment

Politics

One of the great advantages of having worked at a major U.S. foundation focused on entrepreneurship, teaching in a business school and being a member of the senior staff at the National Governors Association was the opportunity to make friends with individuals outside my usual sphere of amigos and acquaintances.  Despite the political and ideological differences, I held many of them in high esteem long after our professional association expired.  Which makes it all that much harder to understand their unwillingness to acknowledge the existential threat posed to American and global democracy by Donald Trump.

It was easier to understand in 2016, before Trump ever sat behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.  Trump promised a lot and delivered on two items of importance to this audience:  lower tax rates and business deregulation.  On January 20, 2017, concerns about Trump’s authoritarian goals were speculative.  Once he took office, I assumed the wishful thinkers who thought being president would temper Trump’s worst inclinations would have a change of heart.  I was wrong.  Many ignored the warning signs–Charlottesville, Helsinki, Ukraine, his Lafayette Park response to Black Lives Matter, quack Covid treatments and calls for his political opponents to be jailed two weeks before the 2020 election.  Not to mention the 30,000+ lies.  Fortunately, just enough of them voted for Joe Biden or sat out the election to ensure Trump’s defeat by more than seven million votes, enough to carry six of the seven battleground states.

One would think, based on Trump’s post-election and out-of-office behavior, the choice this election cycle would be easier.  But anecdotal feedback from my conservative friends and national reporting from gatherings such as Davos 2024, suggest many of those who saw Trump as a threat in 2020 are more concerned about Biden four years later.  Even when one of their concerns proves to be unfounded, they shift to a new one.  Conversative economists predicted a post-Covid recession was unavoidable.  WRONG!  NATO was weaker than ever.  WRONG!  Biden was too progressive, even socialist.  WRONG!  It is hard to make that case when 14 million new jobs were created in the first three years of Biden’s administration, the unemployment rate is at a 50 year low, major corporations are besting Wall Street earnings estimates for the most recent reporting quarter and the Dow and S&P averages are at all time highs.  

Time to find a new reason not to vote for Biden, and of course. they did.  Here is how one friend explained it.  “I would feel better about Biden if Kamala was not the VP.”  This implies two things.  One, Biden will either die or become incapacitated before the end of a second term though there is no evidence that is the case.  Two, Harris is too much of a risk to trust as president.  My friend and others who share this opinion might want to reconsider based on their previous willingness to take an even greater chance in the past.  I am, of course, referring to 2008 when, I will bet the farm, many of them voted for John McCain.

Before running for president, McCain had been diagnosed with melanoma four times, the last coming in 2000.  Although there is no direct connection between these diagnoses and the glioblastoma tumor which eventually took his live, the melanoma removed in 2000 was Stage IIa compared to the most serious Stage IV.  Articles in recent medical journals suggest the survival rate 10 years after diagnosis is 65 percent.  In other words, if McCain had taken office in 2009, there was a 35 percent chance he would not survive the first two years of his first term.  Neither Democrats nor the press made this a major issue during the campaign.  Of course, Republicans had no concerns about their nominee’s health.

For argument’s sake, knowing McCain’s odds, you would think those who fear a Harris secession would feel the same way about his choice of a running mate.  Who did he choose?  Oh, Sarah Palin.  The governor of a state with less than 700,000 population at the time, no D.C. or foreign policy experience and unable to answer the questions, “Where do you get your news?  What magazines do you read?”  Compare that to Harris who has served as attorney general of the most populous state in the country, a U.S. Senator and a member of the Judiciary Committee, and has been able, as vice-president, to learn the job from inside-out.  Plus, she has Joe Biden with all his knowledge and experience as a mentor.  Palin’s top advisor when she ran for Alaska governor was John Bitney, described by The New Yorker as someone who “…is from Wasilla, Palin’s home town, and has known her since junior high school, where the both played in the band.” (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!)

Instead of exuding hypocrisy, maybe it’s time for the anti-Harris crowd to look for the next reason to sit out an election which has a decent, pro-democracy, rule of law old man (yes, he knows he is old) who has guided the country through what even the most conservative economists say is the “unprecedented” success of stemming inflation without a recession. Or a pro-Russian, wannabe dictator and insurrectionist who has already been found liable of sexual assault, defamation (twice) and business fraud.  And when it comes to his legal woes, as Donald Trump, Jr.’s fiancée Kimberly Guilfoyle reminded us at the 2020 Republican National Convention, “The best is yet to come!”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

In Case You Forgot

Culture, Sports

Every Super Bowl has a back story.  Sometimes, that behind the scenes drama is so compelling, the event is referred to by a nickname.  When brothers Jim and John, head coaches of the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, respectively, faced off in Super Bowl XLVII (2013) it was tagged “the Harbaugh Bowl.”  And each annual contest between the NFL’s best is memorialized in a single image.  Last night’s game was no exception.

Welcome to the “Nepo Baby Bowl.” For those unfamiliar with the term, it refers to celebrities who are born to famous parents with similar careers.  Among the most famous is Gwyneth Paltrow, daughter of actress Blythe Danner and director/producer Bruce Paltrow.  Or Martin Sheen’s sons, Charlie and Emilio Estevez.  The field during Super Bowl LVIII was littered (pun intended) with nepo babies.

  • Eventual MVP Patrick Mahomes is the offspring of former New York Mets pitcher Pat Mahomes.
  • 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey learned the game from his father Ed, who was an All-American receiver at Stanford University and spent 13 seasons in the NFL including three Super Bowl championships.
  • And of course, there is 49er head coach Kyle Shanahan who is following in his father Mike’s footsteps.  Among the storylines for Sunday’s game was, “Would this be the day when son Kyle joins his dad as head coach of a Super Bowl champion?”

But, as Arlo Guthrie would say, that’s not what I came here to talk about.  Instead, I want to go back to the defining image during last night’s broadcast.  If the game itself was of primary interest, the outcome might be captured by one of three photographs.  For some, it was the moment Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal blocked Jake Moody’s extra point.  Or when a punt inadvertently struck 49er Darrel Luter’s foot which led to a Chiefs touchdown on the next play. Or Mahomes’ three-yard touchdown pass in overtime to relatively unknown Mecole Hardman which sealed the Chiefs’ victory.

Maybe you tuned in for the entertainment provided by a host of performers before the game and culminating in Usher’s halftime performance, a soul and rap montage, reminiscent of an earlier time when Dick Clark would tour the United States with his “Caravan of Stars.”  For the record, I find the halftime extravaganza, regardless who headlines the performance, a great opportunity to start solving the Sunday New York Times crossword puzzle.  To the chagrin of 49er fans, once again, the extended mid-game break turned out to be a momentum changer.

Finally, no discussion of Super Bowl LVIII would be complete without a reference to Tay-Tay and Kel-Kel.  For those who bet on the over/under, during the game, Taylor Swift appeared on-screen 12 times for a total of 53 seconds.  But the main event was the couple’s on-field reunion after the trophy ceremony.

Even Joe Biden’s deep state could not have pulled off such a complete American experience, though he trolled the MAGA/QAnon snowflakes with the Tweet, “Just like we drew it up.”  But the moment and image that truly represented the America we so often think is in the rearview mirror occurred before the kickoff.  It was a brief shot of Chief’s defensive tackle Chris Jones during Reba McIntyre’s rendition of The Star Spangled Banner (below).

Jones is no “nepo baby.”  He was born in Houston, Mississippi, the son of a furniture factory worker.  According to his profile on the Chiefs’ website, when Jones was in the fourth grade, his father was jailed for nearly a decade after a DUI arrest.  Despite the odds, Jones proved his football credentials first at Houston High School, then Mississippi State University and as a second-round draft choice of the Kansas City Chiefs.

One can only imagine the pent-up emotions which produced that tear.  Having made his mother and father proud.  Gratitude to those who contributed to his development as a football player and a selfless member of his community.  Remembering the bedroom at his grandmother’s home he shared with 10 other family members while he was in high school.  Or the physical contrast between Allegiant Stadium and his humble surroundings as a child.

At a time when so many Americans question whether the United States is still the land of opportunity, ask Chris Jones.  Recalling his own journey, he would likely echo comedian Yakov Smirnoff’s tag line, “Is this a great country or what?”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Random Thoughts 2/8/24

Random Thoughts

You are probably getting tired of my repeating a favorite quote from Edward R. Murrow.  “The obscure we see eventually.  The completely obvious, it seems take longer.”  This adage. however, is more apt than ever in the past 48 hours.

NOT ROCKET JUSTICE

It is 10:03 am on February 8, 2024.  The U.S. Supreme Court has just begun oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, by which Donald Trump is asking the Court to overturn the ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court making him ineligible to be on the state’s primary ballot for having engaged in an insurrection in accordance with Amendment 14, Section 3 of the Constitution.  This morning, there was a lot of handwringing by legal scholars and political pundits about the outcome, but equally important, the impact on a Supreme Court that has lost favor with an increasing majority of Americans. 

University of Alabama law professor Joyce Vance explained the Court will likely further alienate half the population regardless of which course they choose.  Referring to removing Trump from the Colorado ballot and likely other states, she said, “You’re damned if you do; damned if you don’t.  In these cases, your best bet is to do the right thing.”  

But sometime RIGHT can also be EXPEDIANT.  There is, I believe, a simple solution.  Although the justices are hearing oral arguments today, I am sure they are already well versed in both sides’ claims and could issue an opinion this afternoon.  But I suggest they wait until Wednesday and give the nation a Valentine.  Here is why.

The 11th District Court of Appeals, which unanimously ruled Trump has no immunity as a citizen to criminal prosecution, gave Trump’s legal counsel until Monday to file an appeal to the Supreme Court.  No doubt “last minute Donald” will have his attorney’s file the appeal at 4:59 pm on 4/12.  The Supremes will likely give Jack Smith the same five days to respond.  The already completed appeal will be filed at 10:00 am on 2/13.  The justices will take the rest of Tuesday to have clerks review the filings for any surprises and to prepare a final draft of the Colorado decision.

On 2/14 the Supreme Court announces it has made two decisions.  In the case of Trump v. Anderson, they rule in Trump’s favor on a technicality which I have always said is a hurdle. Lacking a conviction of engaging in or providing aid and comfort to an insurrection, the Court unanimously rules the Amendment 14-3 is not self executing.  However, the Court does believe that the American public has a right to know if a candidate has conspired to overthrow a fair and secure election of the nation’s chief executive.  Therefore, the Court, based on the unimpeachable opinion issued by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, denies certiorari in the immunity case.  Furthermore, the original stay in this case is permanently lifted and Judge Tanya Chutkan is authorized to proceed with scheduling and conducting the United States v. Trump trial with all deliberate speed.

Happy Valentines Day!  Here is half of a candy “I LUV U” heart for everyone.

THE GHOST OF SADDAM HUSSEIM

This morning, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass laid out Iran’s motives for backing and funding numerous terrorist militias in the Middle East.  Haass claimed the Israel/Hamas conflict offered a window for Iran to solidify its influence in several Middle East countries including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.  The broadcast also included an interview with Kurdistan prime minister Masrour Barzani who feared if the Iran government forces a U.S. retreat from the region, the Kurds, who have been an American ally in the fight against ISIS, will pay the price.

If only we had a nation that could counterbalance Iran’s position in the region.  Oh wait!  We did!  It was Iraq until George W. Bush and Dick Cheney preemptively overthrew the government on false pretenses.  And we, as well as our Kurdish allies, are stilling paying the price.

ROTARY FIRING SQUAD

In a recent blog, I mentioned that, at one time, I was a member of my local Rotary Club along with Congressman Aaron Bean (R-FL 4).  At the heart of membership is the motto “Service Above Self” and the Rotary Four Way Test.

  1. Is it the TRUTH?
  2. Is it FAIR to all concerned?
  3. Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?
  4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?

Too bad Aaron does not believe the Four Way Test applies to his service in the House of Representatives.  He supports Trump and “the big lie.”  In August 2023, the Jacksonville NBC affiliate reported Bean called Trump’s indictments unfair.  He is quoted as saying, “We always took pride in that there was a blind justice in our country, but it appears that Lady Justice now is peeking from her blindfold, and checking, what’s the letter behind your name before I take, I seek justice?” If justice was blind, Trump would have been treated exactly like Reality Winner, the NSA translator who spent four years in prison for leaking a single document. So much for the TRUTH.

On Tuesday, he voted to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas although the resolution drafted by Majorie Taylor Greene identifies no high crimes or misdemeanors as required by the U.S. Constitution.  When someone does not play by the rules, how FAIR is that?

Finally. this week he joined House Speaker Mike Johnson and an overwhelming majority of GOP senators and representatives who killed a bipartisan national security bill, despite support by the Border Patrol Union.  Why?  Because Joe Biden and Democrats might get some credit for addressing the issue.  And that would hurt Trump’s chances of re-election.  I guess Aaron thinks the ALL in the four-way test is not Americans who say immigration is a major concern, Ukrainians who are fighting to save their democracy, Israelis trying to crush Hamas, humanitarian aid to innocent Palestinians in Gaza or our Pacific allies who face a growing military threat from China and North Korea.  In this case, Aaron’s definition of ALL is Donald Trump and his standing in his own political party.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP