All posts by Dr. ESP

Terrorism Works

Politics

At first it was just aberrant behavior.  One can argue it began with Richard Nixon and his 1972 re-election campaign’s “dirty tricks.”  Their success by bending the rules is best described by Mark Felt (aka Deep Throat) in the film All the President’s Men. based on Bob Woodward’s and Carl Bernstein’s book of the same title.

Nationwide–my God, they were frightened of Muskie and look who got destroyed–they wanted to run against McGovern, and look who they’re running against. They bugged, they followed people, false press leaks, fake letters, they canceled Democratic campaign rallies, they investigated Democratic private lives, they planted spies, stole documents, on and on– don’t tell me you think this was all the work of little Don Segretti.

Fast forward to October 3, 2023, the day House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was voted out of office by eight members of the Freedom Caucus, a subset of the larger group which forced 15 floor votes before McCarthy obtained the speakership.  As early as January 3, 2023, more pragmatic members of the GOP caucus referred to the dissenters as the “Taliban 19.”  This was nothing new.  Former Speaker John Boehner once referred to the Freedom Caucus as “legislative terrorists.”  After the chaotic attempts to replace McCarthy, it is hard to disagree.

More importantly, the self-proclaimed leader of the MAGA wing of the GOP House considered these descriptors a call to arms.  According to POLITICO.COM, “Rep. Mat Gaetz (R-FL) called the comments ‘hurtful’ and ‘false,’ though he added, ‘I too am prepared for an extended battle I will ultimately win.'” On October 24, 2023, win he did with the ascension of Mike Johnson (R-LA) to Speaker of the House.  Neither Gaetz or Marjorie Taylor Greene could ever dream the House gavel would be wielded by such a Trumpy, election denying, America First, homophobic Christian nationalist who explains his guiding principle as follows. 

Someone asked me today in the media, “People are curious, what does Mike Johnson think about any issue under the sun?” I said, ‘Well, go pick up a Bible off your shelf and read it. That’s my worldview.”

Imagine the response by every one of the 220 GOP members of Congress who voted for Johnson if an Irani Ayatollah said, “What do I think about any issue under the sun?  Go pick up the Koran and read it.  That’s my worldview.”

Now that Gaetz, et. al., have demonstrated terrorism works, you can bet the farm this is not the last time they will use it.

POSTCRIPT–Election Deniers

If you think the 2020 “Big Lie” was a one-off or it only applies to inter-party contests, look no farther than the eventual choice of Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House.  Until last Tuesday, the rule which governed GOP caucus votes, named after former Speaker and convicted pedophile Dennis Hastert, though not specifically stating such, implies that the members of the party will abide by the wishes of a majority of the total GOP conference.

On October 11, the conference nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise as the party’s choice for speaker.  The secret ballot vote was 113 for Scalise and 99 for Jim Jordan.  The MAGA wing of the GOP conference, however, refused to accept the outcome.  When Scalise withdrew his nomination two days later, the conference nominated Jim Jordan over seven other contenders using (drum roll) ranked voting, something the RNC opposes for national elections.  Again the losers failed to fall in line, denying Jordan the 217 votes on the House floor to secure the gavel.  The conference then nominated Tom Emmer by a vote of 117 to 97.  Within four hours (what one pundit referred to as a tenth of a Scaramucci), Donald Trump torpedoed Emmer’s nomination  because he refused to go along with the Big Lie.

Only after Johnson received 128 votes in  last Tuesday’s secret ballot, just 57.9 percent of the 221 GOP conference members, his supporters declared victory and demanded the entire GOP membership get behind him.  One more example the GOP continues to believe the only legitimate elections are those in which their candidates prevail.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Daddy Issues

Culture, Media

You ask me what I’m thinking aboutI tell you that I’m thinking aboutWhatever you’re thinking aboutTell me something that I’ll forgetAnd you might have to tell me againIt’s crazy what you’ll do for a friend

~”Daddy Issues” by The Neighbourhood

Just when you thought there was the slightest possibility Republican “Team Sane” might eventually land the ship safely on Earth One, it’s leader former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney proved that once Donald Trump is gone, it will be back to business as usual.  On what do I base this pessimistic view of a functioning two-party democratic system?  Her interview with Jake Tapper on the October 22 edition of CNN’s “State of the Union.” After an opening segment on the importance of plea deals by Sydney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro on Trump’s legal peril and Jim Jordan’s secret ballot reality check, Tapper turned to the Israel-Hamas War.

TAPPER: Let me ask you, just in terms of advising a country that is an ally — a lot of people are drawing parallels to 9/11, although, proportionally, this was worse. This is about — would be the same as killing 40,000 people in Israel, as opposed to 3,000 that happened here in 9/11.

On 9/11, your father was vice president. You came to work at the State Department after 9/11. Take a listen to what President Biden said in Israel this week.

VIDEO CLIP OF BIDEN: But I caution this: While you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. And while we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.

TAPPER: Given the goal of not just defeating Hamas, but a long-term goal of Israel living in peace, of a two-state solution, if that’s even a serious proposition anymore, what lessons do you think we have learned as a country that we could tell Israel, that we could share with Israel?

CHENEY: Well, look, I think probably the biggest mistake that we made post-9/11 was President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan the way that he did.

Leave it to Daddy’s little girl to conveniently skip over the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  You know, the conflict predicated on what we once thought was “the BIG lie” until Trump came up with “a BIGGER lie.” Actually it was two lies:  Saddam Hussein’s involvement in the 9/11 terrorist attack (not true) and his imminent development and potential use of weapons of mass destruction against the United States (also not true).

We can all agree the withdrawal from Afghanistan did not go as planned largely due to the fact that no one expected the Kabul government and military forces to surrender to the Taliban within days, if not hours, of the start of the evacuation.  At a time when some Americans are questioning continued support for Ukrainians who are fighting and dying in defense of democracy, they seem to forget we provided 20 years of both American treasure and lives for a regime that showed no interest in standing up for itself.  Since the U.S. withdrawal, Afghanistan, though ruled by the Taliban, has not been a credible terrorist threat to our homeland.  They have enough problems to deal with governing their own country.

Compare that to the consequences of the 2003 Iraq invasion. 

  • A total of 4,492 U.S. members of the arm services killed and another 32,292 wounded. 
  • Direct funding of more than $750 million.  Estimates of indirect costs at home and abroad raise that total to $3 trillion.
  • An ISIS resurgence in the region.
  • War profiteering of which the major financial beneficiary was Haliburton (you know, “Daddy’s corporation”) which received $39.5 billion in federal contracts during the conflict.

Perhaps the most devastating unintended consequence of the Iraq invasion was the removal of the single most efficient counter-balance to the rise of Iran.  After eight years of armed conflict between Iraq and Iran beginning in 1980, the Iranian clerics agreed to a U.N. brokered cease-fire.  According to a 2016 report by Satgin Hamrah of the Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, “While the war may have ended in 1988, its legacy lives on in the Sunni versus Shia sectarian conflicts that currently exist in much of the Muslim world.”  Without Hussein’s presence to ensure a strong Sunni counter to the Iranian Shia theocracy, the threat to America is significantly higher than it was pre-2003. According to a 2022 assessment by the Council on Foreign Affairs:

Iran has built considerable political clout in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Its wide sphere of influence could be expanding, raising domestic tensions and alarming U.S. policymakers.

When the GOP accuses the Biden Administration of enabling Iran’s rise as a global menace, politely remind them who created the opportunity by removing their preoccupation with a hostile next door neighbor.

POSTSCRIPT

The other piece of news coming out of the interview was Cheney’s announcement she had not ruled out a possible run for the presidency.  My first thought?  She will not have to worry about campaign financing.  Certainly, she can self-fund her campaign with Daddy’s literal “war chest.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The Answer to Some of Your Questions Is…

Random Thoughts

Don Ohlmeyer, former NBC president and the original producer of Monday Night Football, when asked to explain irrational choices in business, sports and politics, wisely opined, “The answer to all your questions is…MONEY.” Consider the opening week of the college football season when second tier college teams travel to Power Five Conference stadiums to be served up as human sacrifices.  Just this year, in return for a $1.5 million payday, Miami University (Oxford, OH) jetted to South Florida to be on the short-end of a 38-3 shellacking by the University of Miami.

This past week proved Ohlmeyer’s maxim to be less iron-clad than I once believed.  Two events, Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel and the congressional logjam resulting from the inability of Republicans to elect a House Speaker had little to do with money.  If not money, what is the primary factor which explains these events?  In both cases, the answer is…GERRYMANDERING.

I’ll begin with Hamas.  Comedian Dana Gould opens his “I Know It’s Wrong” album with a routine in which he claims anything, in the right context, can be funny.  You can feel the audience’s tension when he announces he will prove his point with three jokes.  One about AIDS.  One about rape.  And one about 9/11.  It is the third topic which illuminates the horror of 10/7/23 on the Gaza border.

I think my favorite part of 9/11 (pause as the audience laughs nervously) was the Muslim terrorists when they went to Muslim heaven, which we all know isn’t true.  They can’t be in Muslim heaven because they’re in Christian hell.  Unless they go back and forth which you can do because they’re both pretend.

~Dana Gould/I Know It’s Wrong

Exactly!  Muslim extremists who self-associate with one of the world’s three major religions have gerrymandered heaven.  In the territorial afterlife they control, the greatest rewards come from jihad and martyrdom. Likewise, many Christian fundamentalists have walled off their heavenly enclave, depriving entry to those who do not share their beliefs or deviate from their standards of behavior. As we learn over and over again, apartheid applied to an imaginary afterlife does little to support the prospects for peace and amity in this one.

Which brings me to the more traditional definition of gerrymandering, manipulating the boundaries of legislative districts to either create safe seats for the party in power or dilute representation of various classes of voters, both of which give disproportional weight to a percentage of the electorate. Perhaps the best example is my home state of Florida where the GOP holds 20 of 28 congressional seats although party affiliation is relatively even (GOP 36.35 percent versus Democrats 34.48 percent.)  Keep in mind the state legislature originally approved a somewhat more equitable map which Governor Ron DeSantis vetoed and then arm-twisted the legislature to approve his version.

However, as is so often said, be careful what you wish for.  Florida’s 2022 redistricting assured Matt Gaitz a safe seat which freed him up to be the chaos agent on display during the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  The same is true of the other seven firebrands who sealed McCarthy’s fate.  This is what happens when a representative no longer needs the backing of House leadership to support his or her reelection.

In other words, while the Republican Party thought gerrymandering would be the path to electoral heaven, they now find themselves corralled behind the Gaitz of hell.  Unlike the 9/11 terrorists, the GOP can actually go back and forth between the benefits and costs of gerrymandering because both are real.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

My Platinum Jubilee

Politics

NOTE:  My absence the past couple of weeks is, as is often the case, due to a convergence of two or more situations.  First, today I am posting entry #800 and wanted to make sure the content matched the milestone.  Second, I am finally recovering from a bout with the flu which has made it hard to concentrate when both researching an issue and then writing coherently about it.  Third, the fire hose of news the past month has made it difficult to focus on any single event.  Therefore, I have chosen this occasion to put a number of observations in a broader context.

75 years of life is a milestone birthday, often referred to as the platinum celebration. (sage.com)

Carl Jung would suggest it is no coincidence that someone like myself, who is so steeped in the study and practice of politics, was born on January 20th, the date established under the 20th Amendment (a mnemonic which makes it easy to remember), adopted in 1933, on which a newly elected or re-elected candidate for president of the United States takes the oath of office. Even though January 20, 1950 was not an inauguration day, but the mid-point of Harry Truman’s full term as president, the die was cast.  And assuming you can do the math, you already realize the milestone referenced in the title of this post is still more than 14 months away.  Most people have no idea what they want for their next birthday, much less one that is more than a year in the future.

Why, then, would I have an obsession with this far off event?  Simple.  While it may be a personal milestone for me, what happens at noon on January 20, 2025 may be the defining moment for what is often referred to as the “American Experiment.”  The next president and commander-in-chief could be someone who:

  1. Refused to accept the outcome of what his own chief of election security called the “most secure election in the nation’s history.”
  2. Incited followers, whom he knew were armed, to march on the U.S. Capitol to disrupt certification of the electoral college votes.
  3. Illegally retained and shared classified information with donors and journalists.
  4. Said he would terminate provisions of the U.S. Constitution if  they got in his way.
  5. Called Americans who gave their lives in defense of the United States “suckers” and “losers.”
  6. Was embarrassed to be seen in the presence of wounded warriors because “…it doesn’t look good for me.”
  7. Called for the execution of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.

Any one of these offenses would have disqualified an individual as unfit to serve in a pre-MAGA world.  Which raises the question, “What changed?”  This morning, I got my answer watching Morning Joe.  Host Joe Scarborough interviewed Representative Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) who is co-chair of a bipartisan caucus of House members referred to as the “Problem Solvers.”  To their credit, this group was instrumental in assembling the bi-partisan votes to avoid a national default earlier this year and a government shutdown last weekend.

The conversation then turned to Scarborough’s suggestion that Democrats had put party loyalty above institutional well-being when they voted in mass to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  If you had just turned into the program, this might seem like a reasonable question.  However, in previous segments, Scarborough proclaimed McCarthy’s downfall was just the latest example that appeasement never works.  Furthermore, he and guest panelists made reference to the multiple times McCarthy violated institutional norms to win and then hold on to the speaker’s gavel.  Gutting a bi-partisan agreement which governed when and how members could file a motion to vacate the speaker’s chair.  Giving a disproportionate share of key committee assignments and chairmanships to extreme Freedom Caucus members. Promising an impeachment inquiry even though GOP leaders have yet to identify a single instance in which Joe Biden committed a high crime or misdemeanor.  Giving exclusive access to Capitol security tapes to Tucker Carlson.  Unilaterally initiating the impeachment inquiry without the promised floor vote.

Although Gottheimer did not make the analogy, he implied that for Democrats to keep giving McCarthy cover based on empty and broken promises was equivalent to Neville Chamberlain’s pact with Adolph Hitler which would guarantee “peace for our time.”  After peppering Gottheimer, Scarborough admitted he probably would have done the same thing if the circumstances were reversed.

The exchange between Gottheimer and Scarborough is just the latest example of projection and disinformation which unfortunately has corrupted civil discourse in the U.S.  Democrats are accused of being anti-institutionalists when, for the last nine months, the GOP majority has pounded House norms harder than Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry banged the gavel to declare the House in recess Tuesday afternoon.  Violent rhetoric is said to be protected under the First Amendment (which it is not).  At the top of the list is the sadly successful GOP campaign to convince voters there is no difference between the parties.

Then how do you explain this.  Donald Trump who was declared liable for defamation and sexual assault in the case of E. Jean Carroll, was found liable of persistent business fraud and faces 91 criminal counts has the support of  57.9 percent of GOP primary voters according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls.  In contrast, the first poll following the indictment of Democratic New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez shows the incumbent has the support of just five percent of likely primary voters.  For Democrats, character still matters.  And none have called for defunding the Department of Justice or FBI or firing any prosecutor following indictments of members of their tribe including the president’s son.

One more thing. Given the chance to start fresh with a new speaker, the two front-runners to replace McCarthy, majority leader Steve Scalise and judiciary chairman Jim Jordan both voted to decertify Joe Biden’s 2020 victory just hours after they were seen running to save themselves from the violent mob that invade the Capitol building on January 6.  In an early morning post on Truth Social, Trump endorsed Jordan, a man who cannot remember when and how many times he talked directly to Trump on January 6th and later inquired about the prospect of pardons, according to Cassidy Hutchinson, although he never specifically requested one as did six other members of the Freedom Caucus.

Yes, January 20, 2025 will be my personal platinum jubilee.  All I wish for on that occasion is Americans hopefully made the right choice to ensure the United States remains a nation governed by the Constitution, the rule of law and people of character.  If they choose otherwise, we will need to coin a new phrase to describe something that dies on its 236th anniversary.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

 

 

 

Yes, He’s Old, But…

Politics

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

~George Santayana

It was August 1999.  Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan hosted the National Governors Association annual meeting in St. Louis. I was there.  I ran into PBS NewsHour political commentator Mark Shields on an elevator.  He asked if I knew why the Republican attendees had scheduled a private meeting.  At the time, I did not.

The Republican Party had lost the last two presidential elections.  Elections they believed they could have easily won, especially the 1996 contest, against an unpopular incumbent Bill Clinton.  Before the party anointed Kansas Senator Bob Dole as their standard bearer, the roster of wannabe nominees included:

  • Former Nixon and Reagan advisor Pat Buchanan
  • Former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander
  • U.S. Congressman Bob Dornan (CA)
  • U.S. Senator Phil Gramm (TX)
  • Forbes Magazine editor Steve Forbes
  • Former assistant Secretary of State Alan Keyes
  • U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (IN)
  • U.S. Senator Arlen Specter (PA)
  • California Governor Pete Wilson

Only Dole and Buchanan remained in the race in August when Dole secured the nomination at the national convention in San Diego.  It could hardly be called a love fest.  Religious conservatives were disappointed the party platform did not include more powerful pro-life language.  And, to avoid a repeat of Buchanan’s divisive oratory at the 1992 convention, he was denied a speaker’s slot during the four-day gathering.

The 30 Republican governors who attended the 1999 NGA meeting in St. Louis decided they would not let this happen again.  They agreed to pre-select one of their own to represent them.  And with the endorsement of the governors in 29 other states, their choice would be guaranteed the nomination.  Texas Governor George W. Bush emerged as the consensus candidate and won enough delegates by March 2020 to wrap up the nomination.

On the other hand, Democrats never seemed to learn that lesson.  In 1968, a bitter fight between incumbent Vice-President Hubert Humphrey and the anti-war branch of the party, led by Senators Eugene McCarthy (OR) and George McGovern (SD), doomed Humphrey’s chances of succeeding Lyndon Johnson.  More notably, in 2016, even the last-minute truce between Senators Hillary Clinton (NY) and Bernie Sanders (VT) was not enough to bring the party together.  I need not tell you what that led to.

Which brings me to 2023 and “old” Joe Biden.  Yes, he’s going to be 82 years old in January 2025.  Yes, age and the still present effects of being a “recovering stutterer” deprive him of the kind of relationship with the English language that defines great orators.  But he has one thing no other Democrat can claim.  He has the endorsement of the breadth of the Democratic continuum from Bernie Sanders to Montana Senator Jon Tester.  From moderate Representative Steve Cohen (TN) to member of “the squad” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY).

Now, just imagine if Biden withdrew from the race, as so many have suggested.  Does anyone who believes a second Trump term is not a clear and present danger to democracy and the rule of law really want to see an open contest similar to the dumpster fire that was on display at the first Republican debate?  Democrats, independents and former Republicans who have left the reservation need to remember it took every one of those 82 million Biden votes to drive Trump from the Oval Office.  And it may require the same effort next year.  Democrats cannot afford to take the chance some of those voters will stay home or turn to a third party candidate.  A contested nomination would likely do just that.

Yes, I know he’s old, but there is one more reason I do not share the same concerns of those who question his ability to serve another four years.  I challenge his detractors to give one specific example where his age prevented him from fulfilling his presidential responsibilities over the past three years.  He was there every time he was needed.  Garnering support for Ukraine including a clandestine, multi-day trip to Kiev to boost morale.  (How easily we forget Donald Trump could not attend a D-Day memorial for American soldiers because it was raining.)  Strengthening NATO with the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance.  Negotiating with Republican members of Congress and a few recalcitrant Democrats to pass major bi-partisan legislation and avoid a default.

“What about Afghanistan?” Republicans are sure to ask.  Would a younger president have allowed such a debacle?  Most likely.  The immediate collapse of the Kabul government and Afghan military was contrary to the intelligence information that would have guided any commander-in-chief.  Biden’s decision to use the withdrawal agreement negotiated by (you guessed it) the Trump administration as the opportunity to end a military engagement he believed had already gone on way to long was the rational and strategic choice.

The case against Joe Biden is not unlike Rudy Giuliani’s explanation of his crusade to overturn the 2020 election to Speaker of the Arizona House Rusty Bowers.  “We have a lot of theories, we just don’t have the evidence.”  Yes, there are a lot of theories.  Nikki Haley believes a second Biden term is a death sentence.  Chair of the House Oversight Committee James Comer thinks Biden will be impeached and convicted of some unidentified corruption scheme.  We should not choose a president based on unfounded theories.  Until there is real evidence, when it comes to protecting democracy, I see only one choice.  JOE BIDEN.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP