All posts by Dr. ESP

Day Two

Politics, Uncategorized

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley warns, “A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris,” suggesting that re-electing the aged and addled president would almost certainly vault the vice president into the Oval Office within the next four years.

Liz Peek/Fox News/September 1, 2023

Remember back in the fall of 2023 when Republicans ghoulishly predicted Joe Biden would not survive a second term, ensuring the ascension of Kamala Harris, an outcome Haley declared should “…send a chill up every American’s spine.”  After watching last night’s debate, I have an even greater fear which has nothing to do with Donald Trump’s health or mortality.  Let me explain.

We know what “Day One” of a second Trump administration would look like.  For someone who has been unable to give a cogent answer about his policy positions, he has been crystal clear about actions he would take immediately following the inaugural parade.  The list, compiled by a Washington Post review of Trump speeches since launching his campaign on November 15, 2022, include:

  • An executive order replacing 50,000 federal civil servants with loyalists vetted by the Heritage Foundation.
  • Pardoning his supporters who attacked law enforcement officers and defaced the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
  • Starting “the largest deportation operation in American history.”
  • Dismantle the Affordable Care Act.
  • Bringing the Department of Justice, Federal Reserve and FCC under total control of the president.
  • End “birthright citizenship” which is enshrined in the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
  • Restrict travel from countries with substantial Muslim populations.
  • Cut funding to school districts which mandate vaccines or mask mandates.
  • Repeal Biden’s executive order which expanded background checks for purchasers of firearms.

Not specifically included in the Post’s compendium is directing the Department of Justice to drop federal investigations and indictments related to January 6, 2021, mishandling of classified documents and obstruction of justice.

Which brings me to “Day Two.”  It will likely mirror the final scene in Michael Ritchie’s 1972 film, “The Candidate.”  Similar to fictional senator-elect Bill McKay (Robert Redford), Trump will retire to the White House residence, sit on the edge of his bed, look at whichever sycophant he makes chief of staff, and ask, “What do we do now?”  By midnight January 20, 2025, Trump will have achieved everything he wanted to do.  Demonstrate he could beat “sleepy Joe” and “crazy Kamala.”  Make the specter of more convictions and potential prison time go away.  It may not be the next day, but sometime before January 20, 2029, I believe he will declare victory and go home.  

Which is my takeaway from last night’s vice-presidential debate.  To quote Nikki Haley, the prospect of a J.D. Vance presidency “sends a chill up my spine.”  For two reasons.  First, as clearly demonstrated during the debate, Vance put “Slick Willy” Clinton to shame.  His ability to lie with such verbal aplomb is frightening.  Based on a CNN snap poll of debate watchers, a very narrow majority (51-49 percent) declared Vance the winner, attesting to his ability to effectively sell bullshit.

Second, and more importantly, while Trump has tried to distance himself from Project 2025, Vance is wedded to it.  Vance’s selection as VP candidate was engineered by the Heritage Foundation.  To fully appreciate his devotion to Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts, one need only read Vance’s foreword to Roberts’ forthcoming book By Dawn’s Early Light, which includes the following.

Roberts is articulating a fundamentally Christian view of culture and economics, recognizing that virtue and material progress go hand in hand.

The old conservative movement argued if you just got government out of the way, natural forces would resolve problems.  We are no longer in this situation and must take a different approach.

So much for small government conservatism and “the invisible hand” of economic markets.

And Vance describes this “different approach,” not as a conversation about ideas, but in terms of armed conflict.  He refers to Roberts’ perspective and specific proposals as “essential weapons in the fights that lay ahead.”  And ends his endorsement of the book’s content with a call “to circle the wagons and load the muskets.”  (If only the Supreme Court originalists had ruled that muskets were the only firearms the Founding Fathers thought should be covered by the Second Amendment.)

But there is good news.  Dare I say, last night’s debate was a second tier remake of the October 3, 2000 debate between George W. Bush and Al Gore, with much the same outcome.  Gore was perceived as the articulate, policy-wise alternative but came across as impatient and condescending.  Gore campaign advisor Paul Begala summed up the effect on the audience of his candidate’s dismissal of Bush as a worthy opponent.

For all of Gore’s good answers, his feelings for Bush was his fatal flaw. You can’t afford to look across the stage with that kind of contempt at someone who millions of people have nominated as their standard-bearer.

The details of the CNN post-debate poll echo these exact sentiments.  In terms of likeability, 59 percent of viewers said they had a favorable view of Walz (up 13 points from a pre-debate poll) while only 22 percent gave him an unfavorable rating.  Even though Vance’s favorability rose 11 points to 41 percent, he remained underwater with a 44 percent unfavorable score.  And what is often viewed as the most important polling factor, debate watchers, by a margin of 48 to 35 percent chose Walz over Vance when it came to which candidate “is more in touch with the needs and problems of people like me.”

In summary both candidates were winners when it came to achieving their goals.  Vance succeeded in rounding off some of the sharp edges of his personality and positions, but not enough to make him more likeable than Walz.  Walz, the lesser known of the two when selected to be Harris’ running mate, solidified his credibility as qualified to step into the presidency, if necessary, according to 65 percent of the those who watched the debate.

As is generally the case when it comes to vice-presidential debates, October 1, 2024 will not be remembered as the defining moment of this presidential election.

POSTSCRIPT: THE BIGGEST LOSERS

This one is simple.  Ron DeSantis and the “Free State of Florida.”  Vance is now the heir apparent to what has become the MAGA (nee Trump’s Republican) Party.  And “anti-wokeness” decided to take a nap during the vice-presidential debate.  No mention of critical race theory.  Or transgender athletes.  No defense of book banning.  And admission by Vance that America is a diverse nation.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Ich Bin Ein Haitian

Culture, Politics

On June 26, 1963, John F. Kennedy stood in front of the Berlin Wall and declared, “Ich bin ein Berliner.”  The message was simple.  All freedom loving people across the globe must stand with residents of West Berlin in their struggle to remain independent and free while surrounded by territory dominated by the Soviet Union.

The title of today’s post goes many steps further.  Like many of you, I am outraged by the lies and disinformation spewed by Donald Trump and J.D. Vance to demonize immigrants who were recruited to work in Springfield, Ohio and are legally there under the Temporary Protected Status provisions of existing immigration law.  But it is more than sympathy.  It is brotherhood.  Why?  Because just as Donald Trump, during the September 10 debate, put a target on the backs of Haitian by falsely accusing them of inhumane acts, he did the same thing to Jewish-Americans during a speech at an event ironically advertised to stem the rising tide of anti-Semitism in the United States.

Trump pulled one of the oldest tricks in the book from his MAGA hat.  If there is anything you do not like, blame the Jews.  On September 20, at the Israeli-American Council National Summit, Trump told the largely Jewish audience:

If I don’t win this election – and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because if 40%, I mean, 60% of the people are voting for the enemy – Israel, in my opinion, will cease to exist within two years.

Let’s start with the facts.  Of the 15,590 respondents who made up the exit poll sample during the 2020 presidential election, only two percent identified as Jewish, a subset so small the consortium of news organizations which conducts the poll did not provide a Trump versus Biden breakdown.  They explained this with the following footnote.

Subgroups indicated with an n/a were interviewed for this exit poll, but the sample size may be too small for estimates within those groups to be projectable with confidence to their true values in the population.

More importantly, only two of the six swing states Trump lost in 2020 have a Jewish population higher than the national average of 2.4 percent, Pennsylvania (3.3) and Nevada (2.6).  The other four are Arizona (1.7), Georgia (1.3), Michigan (0.9) and Wisconsin (0.6).

Dr. ESP, why today?  Wasn’t the death of 11 people at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh already evidence enough that Jews were targets of MAGA anger?  Yes, but this was different.  The shooter in that case Robert Gregory Bowers acted because he believed the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, a Jewish-based non-profit “likes to bring invaders in that kill our people.  I can’t sit by and watch my people get slaughtered.” (Source:  Bowers post on social network GAB)  His anger was directed at what a Jewish organization did, not who they necessarily were.

Trump makes no such distinction.  He claims Jews do not appreciate everything he has done for them.  And ironically draws on the two most insidious tropes that fuel anti-Semitism.  One, Jews are more loyal to Israel than the United States.  Two, Jews are greedy, money-grabbers who would put personal wealth above democracy and the national interest.  He believes the role model for all Jewish voters is his son-in-law Jared Kushner.

That is who Donald Trump believes I should be.  And if he loses in November, it is my fault.  I am the enemy.  And though I cannot be picked out of a crowd by the color of my skin, I wonder if Governor Ron DeSantis, who already is sending his “election police” to the homes of Floridians who signed the petition to put abortion on the November ballot, is also taking names of homeowners who have a Harris/Walz sign in their yard and a mezuzah on the doorpost of their homes.

So today, not only am I a Haitian immigrant in Springfield, Ohio.  I am a Mexican-American shopping at a Walmart in El Paso.  I am a Black-American at Bible study at a church in Charleston, South Carolina.  And I am Amber Nicole Thurman and everyone else who is now a target of Donald Trump’s hatred, lies and lack of empathy.  Not because I am a Jew who is now on his “enemies list.”  Rather, as a Jew who was brought up in a tradition of “tikkum olam,”  the responsibility of all Jews to repair the world, not just for ourselves, but for all humanity.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

What’s Wrong With This Picture?

Media, Politics

The purpose of today’s post is not to make light of the second attempt to assassinate former president Donald Trump.  Political violence, under any circumstances, is not acceptable in a democracy where their vote is the only weapon citizens should wield.  Nor do I have the definitive answer how the Secret Service can guarantee the safety and security of any public figure.  My goal, as always, is to ask questions that no one else seems to proffer.  But first, two important facts.

#1: The following picture taken by Palm Beach Post photographer Thomas Cordy shows the section of the perimeter where Ryan Routh camped out for close to 12 hours on Sunday morning.

This photograph also appeared in an article by BBC News correspondent Madeline Halpert in which she describes the situation Sunday morning as follows.

The gunman – who investigators say did not fire any shots – was concealed by the well-manicured shrubbery and tall palm trees that line the perimeter of the 27-hole course.

He had been lurking there on the public side of a fence since 01:59 local time on Sunday morning, according to mobile phone records, cited by federal officials.

#2: Unobstructed line-of-sight photographs of a golfing Trump taken from outside the course’s perimeter set off alarm bells among those tasked with the president’s security.  On Monday, Washington Post investigative reporters Carol Leonig, Josh Dawsey and Isaac Stanley-Becker reminded readers these concerns existed from day one of the Trump presidency.

Soon after Donald Trump became president, authorities tried to warn him about the risks posed by golfing at his own courses because of their proximity to public roads. 

These two facts raise the question, “If security was such an issue when Trump was playing golf, no infrequent situation, why would HE permit those responsible for the perimeter of HIS golf course, to configure the barrier between public roads and his private property in such a way that they literally created a shooting blind for a wannabe assassin?”  If only the “well-manicured shrubbery and tall palm trees” had been INSIDE the fence, there is no way anyone on the public side of the fence could go unnoticed, especially if he camped out for 12 hours.

What’s more, putting the bushes and trees INSIDE the fence would add an additional level of difficulty for anyone targeting Trump.   The gunman would have to aim and shoot through the shrubbery, not from it.

One answer, of course, is vanity.  It is easy to imagine the conversation between Trump and course designer Jim Fazio back in 1999 when Fazio was commissioned to lay out what became Trump’s first golf property.

Jim, you know, it’s not enough for the course to be beautiful.  I want all those people who cannot get in, but pass by, to see how magnificent it is.  We need to surround the course with the most perfect, beautiful landscaping in the world.  It can’t look like a prison.

That may have been acceptable when the owner was a bankrupt real estate developer turned reality show host.  But not as president or now former president/MAGA party nominee.

There is one other option.  The next time Trump hosts a rally at Mar-a-Lago, he can reach deep down into his bag of greatest hits and revive the chant, “Build that wall.  Build that wall.”  To save money, he could replicate the winning design from the border wall competition, 30-feet high, black paint with spikes on the posts.  And he could sell official DJT golf apparel and equipment to pay for it.  Maybe even auction the polo shirt he was wearing at the time of the intended assault.

Of course, the fence might serve a future and quite different purpose.  Trump International could become his personal minimum security prison, if Judge Merchan and others sentence him to house arrest.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

And the Winner Is…

Culture, Politics

Anyone who watched the “Philly Stake” debate on Tuesday night probably thinks picking the winner was, like one of the candidates on the stage, a “no brainer.”  So, how could I,  a self-described champion of counter-intuitive thinking, make a case that was not the case.  No, I’m not going to raise Donald Trump’s arm in victory.  But what if the real winner was not who outperformed his or her opponent, but how they did it.

The winner and new champion is “the field of psychology.”  Below is the evidence.

PSY-OPS

Much post-debate commentary pointed to Kamala Harris’ suggestion people attend Trump’s rally to see how exhausting and boring the MAGA nominee has become.  What they missed is the fact the “mind games” began 12 hours earlier.  On Tuesday morning the Harris campaign released a new TV ad that included Barack Obama’s now famous innuendo about Trump’s obsession with “crowd size.”  To make sure the former president saw it, it ran twice on “Fox and Friends.”  Instead of focusing on putting on his game face,  Trump more than likely spent Tuesday stewing about his nemesis Obama mocking him.

WAHOO-WAH

Every morning I get an update about what’s new at my alma mater, “Mr. Jefferson’s University” AKA the University of Virginia.  Among recent articles was a background piece on alumna Linsey Davis, who ABC News chose to be a co-moderator of the Trump/Harris standoff.  What I did not previously know and learned from the article was the anchor of the Weekend Nightly News was not a communications major.  She holds a B.S. in psychology.

Her academic training was in full display Tuesday night, the prime example being her fact-checking Trump’s accusation Democrats, including Governor Tim Walz, support “abortion after birth.”  She did not say, “President Trump, that is not true.”  She knew the audience could figure that out on their own if presented with one clear and simple fact, “There  is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born.”

THE PREGNANT PAUSE

In his book Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion, Robert B. Cialdini suggests a target audience is more likely to buy into an argument when they are allowed to reach their own conclusions.  This principle was apparent when Trump attempted to score points by blaming Joe Biden and Harris for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.  After presenting the history of Trump’s agreement with the Taliban that precipitated the hurried departure of U.S. troops, she wanted to put an exclamation point on her argument by reminding  viewers her opponent had invited the Taliban to visit Camp David, a site reserved for more serious occasions. 

She looked directly at Trump and began, “This…” before taking a moment to let the audience fill in the blank.   Post debate, on-line viewers turned the pause into a game of political “Mad Libs.”  What did Harris want to say before she caught herself and referred to Trump in the more politically correct term “former president?”   Her audience was more than ready to fill in the blanks.

COGNITIVE DISSONANCE

Cognitive dissonance occurs when a person’s behavior and beliefs do not complement each other or when they hold two contradictory beliefs.

~Medical News Today

Donald Trump believes he is a “stable genius.” On Tuesday night, he was anything but.  If he were still alive, Leon Festinger (1919-1989), the Stanford psychology professor who coined the phrase “cognitive dissonance,” would certainly add excerpts from Trump’s appearance in the post-debate “spin room” to illustrate the behavior which carries the label Festinger attached to it.  Trump can believe he won the debate.  His behavior showed just the opposite.

In conclusion, Tuesday was a pretty good day for Kamala Harris.  Not so good for Trump.  But the clear winners were Freud, Jung and generations of their disciples.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Mirror, Mirror

Culture, Politics

If one thing is certain after every school shooting, it is the search for scapegoats.  The death of two students and two teachers at Apalachee High School in Barrow County, Georgia has more than its share.  Except the one which truly deserves the title.  Let’s look at the candidates.

First, school resource officers are often the targets.  In this case, these law enforcement professionals performed exactly as required.  They confronted the shooter within minutes and prevented what might have been a massacre of much larger proportions.

Second, we have the 14 year old gunman, himself, described by MAGA vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance as “a psycho.”  The full story is yet to be told, but whatever mental challenges the boy may have had, the revelations about his family life seem to be more than a contributing factor.

Third, Colin Gray, the boy’s father, should be at the top of everyone’s list.  Talk about psychos?  Who in his right mind, after being told his son had threatened a school shooting on social media, would think an assault weapon for a 14 year old’s Christmas present was a good idea.  And, when questioned by law enforcement, likely lied on multiple occasions.  His son would never post that kind of language.  He only owned hunting rifles.  And they were secured.  Despite being charged with manslaughter, I have no doubt his defense lawyers will argue prosecutors cannot name a single state law their client violated.  He legally bought the rifle.  He legally gave it to his then 13 year old son.  He had no legal responsibility to store it safely.  He had no legal obligation to inform authorities of his son’s potentially destructive tendencies.  After he and Colt moved to Barrow County, there was no requirement that Gray notify authorities of the 2023 investigation in neighboring Jackson County.

Fourth, Governor Brian Kemp.  Do not forget Georgia’s lax gun laws (46th in the USA) were not good enough for Kemp.  He proudly signed legislation which expanded Georgians’ ability to carry firearms without a permit or training.  And opposed common sense gun safety laws such as universal background checks, safe storage or red flag laws.  The latter would have given Jackson County police and the Georgia Bureau of Investigation the right to remove “hunting rifles” from the Gray household after they discovered Colt used his social media sites to post threats of a school shooting.

Fifth, Congressman Mike Collins, who represents the district in which the shooting took place.  Mike Collins, who has a 100 percent rate from Gunowners of America, the self-proclaimed “no compromise” Second Amendment advocates, and a 92 percent rating from the National Rifle Association.  Mike Collins, who referred to the incident as “heartbreaking,” and of course, extended thoughts and prayers for the victims and their families.  Mike Collins, whose 2022 campaign included an ad of his firing an AR-15 with the tag line, “Send me to Washington and I’ll blow up the Democrats’ coverup.”

Which brings me to the sixth scapegoat, the one NO ONE is talking about.  As I watched horrified parents rushing to the Apalachee football field to reunite with those who had survived the shooting, I wondered, “How many of these concerned parents voted for Kemp and Collins?”  In 2022, 74.6 percent of Barrow County voters cast their ballots for Kemp and 76.3 for Collins.  In other words, three out of every four individuals who prayed their children were safe and will attend the funerals of those who were not as fortunate had no qualms about supporting candidates who claim to be pro-life, but time after time, choose the right of gun owners and manufacturers over the rights of children to go school without worrying if they will return home safely.

Among those responsible for this tragedy are WE THE PEOPLE, especially those who missed the iconic Walt Kelly cartoon, in which Pogo echoes the words of Naval Commander Oliver Perry during the War of 1812, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP