I’m sure you are familiar with the “butterfly effect,” which in chaos theory refers to “the phenomenon whereby a minute localized change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere.” (Dictionary.com)  No system has become more complex than the college bowl season.  What began as four football games on New Year’s Day, now consists of 39 contests beginning in mid-December and ending in early January.

No one would call Hurricane Florence “a minute localized change.”  It devastated the Carolinas and parts of Virginia.  As a result, East Carolina University decided not to travel to Blacksburg, Virginia for its scheduled September 15 football game against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Likewise Marshall University’s game the same day against the University of South Carolina was cancelled.  Knowing it might need that 12th regular season game to qualify for a bowl, Tech athletic director Whit Babcock proposed a make-up game between his squad and Marshall.  A 41-20 victory on December 1 ensured Tech of a post-season engagement.

The Tech win over Marshall was a continuation of the chaos which began at 1:51 of the fourth quarter of the Virginia/Virginia Tech game on November 23rd.  At that point, the ESPN win probability meter gave Virginia an 82.9 percent chance of victory.  The Hokies tied the game at 31 points apiece and won in the first overtime when the Cavaliers fumbled following a Tech field goal.  Final score: 34-31 Tech.  The Hokies now had five wins and were still short of a sixth to make them bowl eligible for the 23rd year in a row.  The last minute scheduling of the Tech/Marshall game would give the Hokies one last chance to secure a bowl bid.  Yesterday, Tech accepted an invitation to play the Cincinnati Bearcats  in the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland on December 31.

Which set off the following domino effect when you have 82 bowl eligible teams and only 78 bowl opportunities.

• A week earlier, Cincinnati was projected to play either Duke or Georgia Tech in the Military Bowl.
• Once Virginia Tech filled the ACC slot, Duke was invited to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana and Georgia Tech accepted a bid to the Quick Lane (can anyone sponsor a bowl game now?) Bowl in Detroit.
• The Yellow Jackets bumped Northern Illinois, the Mid-American Conference Champions, taking Buffalo’s projected spot in the Ceribundi Tart Cherry (??) Boca Raton Bowl.
• There was only one slot left for two MAC Conference bowl eligible teams: Miami and Toledo. With Toledo’s 7-5 season record compared to the Redhawks 6-6, the Makers Wanted (???) Bahamas Bowl committee made the only logical decision, inviting the Rockets.

Thus, any Redhawks’ hopes of basking on Bahamian beaches over winter break vanished in an Oxford minute.

I know.  You’re probably asking yourself, with everything going on in the world, why is Dr. ESP so obsessed with this story.  Simple.  There is a personal connection to two academic institutions involved in this melodrama.  My undergraduate degree is from UVA.  And I was a member of the Miami University faculty for nine years before retiring to Florida.  My wife and I were looking forward to attending the Bahamas Bowl to cheer on the Redhawks, and reconnecting with some former colleagues.  Did some cosmic force emanate from the my minor role in this drama?  Perhaps.  Maybe I should start signing my blog “Dr. Butterfly!”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP