When someone mentions the law of unintended consequences, it is almost always in reference to unanticipated, negative outcomes.  However, as a self-proclaimed champion of counter-intuitive thinking, I forever look for a case or cases which suggest the opposite can also be true.  This morning I found it, in Afghanistan of all places.

Until this morning, many foreign affairs specialists identified two paradoxes which were early contributors to the events of the past two weeks.

1. Nation building should not be an element of U.S. foreign policy or national security.  It did not work in Vietnam.  Iraq.  Libya. Yet, that did not stop one more failed attempt in Afghanistan.
2. Following 9/11, we were told the war against terrorism would not be a conventional conflict.  It would not involve engagements based on geopolitical boundaries or governments.  Neither would success depend on large, well equipped armed forces.  Instead it would be about intelligence, analysis of the data and precision strikes by special ops and manned or unmapped vehicles delivering guided ordinance.

The initial 9/11 response, ironically, was totally consistent with these assumptions.  Consider the following excerpt titled “The First Salvo/October 7, 2001” from an analysis of the two decades war prepared by the Council on Foreign Relations.

The U.S. military, with British support, begins a bombing campaign against Taliban forces, officially launching Operation Enduring Freedom. Canada, Australia, Germany, and France pledge future support. The war’s early phase  mainly involves U.S. air strikes on al-Qaeda and Taliban forces that are assisted by a partnership of about one thousand U.S. special forces, the Northern Alliance, and ethnic Pashtun anti-Taliban forces.

It proved sufficient to result in the total collapse of Taliban forces by December 9, 2001.  The only piece of unfinished business was bringing al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to justice, the justification for the introduction of large numbers of ground troops to prosecute the war into the Tora Bora region where bin Laden was believed to be hiding.  As we later learned he had escaped, probably on horseback, to the compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

David Frum, staff to George W. Bush during this period, shared his perspective that the troop build up and 20 year war could have been avoided in an August 15, 2021 article in The Atlantic titled, “The 1 Thing that Could Have Changed the War in Afghanistan.”

Had the United States caught and killed Osama bin Laden in December 2001, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan would have faded away almost immediately afterward. I cannot prove that. It’s only an opinion from my vantage point as one of President George W. Bush’s speechwriters in 2001 and 2002.

If true, one wonders if the major deployment of U.S. ground troops to secure the new constitution, democratic elections and Karzi government was a substitute for failing the prime directive, capturing or killing bin Laden.  Not to mention the second Iraq war which diluted resources which could have been devoted to the hunt for bin Laden.

Which brings us to the present.  And my long standing but unproven theory the real tragedy in Afghanistan was the U.S. effort at nation building only postponed an inevitable civil war in which Afghans would decide the nation’s future direction.  If the American war between the states settled some major issues on which the founding fathers punted, why couldn’t a similar intra-national catharsis serve the same purpose elsewhere around the globe?

Strangely, this may become the unintended consequence of the 20 year U.S. presence in “the graveyard of empires.”  Not to shore up a corrupt government.  Not to train a self-sufficient Afghan security force.  Instead, the lasting legacy may be time for a new generation of Afghans, who were unborn or too young to remember Taliban 1.0 in 2001, to grow up in a more open society.  With access to the outside world.  Where women could fully participate in the community.  Where young girls could go to school and dream of becoming doctors, teachers, etc.  A whole generation who is willing to tell the Taliban, “NO!  We do not accept what you offer.”

The first signal this new generation may become a thorn in side of the Taliban emerged in the last 48 hours as reported by two Washington Post correspondents.

(Afghans) staged protests in Kabul and other cities Thursday, challenging Taliban fighters in scattered demonstrations, including at least one that turned deadly…In the capital, men and women carried the black, red and green flags of the Afghan Republic, chanting “our flag, our identity,” according to videos posted online.

~Erin Cunningham & Rachel Pannet/August 19, 2021

The numbers are not in the Taliban’s favor.  The United Nations Population Fund in Afghanistan (UNPFA) reports 63.7 of the 37.3 million residents are 25 years of age or younger.  Compare that to the estimated 200,000 members of the Taliban.  Yes, there will likely be a continuing humanitarian crisis, bloodshed and days on which the cause may seem hopeless.  Nor will it resemble the American Civil War.  The optics are likely to be more akin to “Les Misérables” than “Gone with the Wind.”

But if this new generation of Afghans become the force for change and modernity in this ancient land, this unintended consequence means the expenditure of U.S. talent and treasure, along with that of our allies, will not have been in vain.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

But if we get rid of the confederate flags (pause) how am I going to know who the dangerous white people are? I’m just saying, the flag had a couple of up sides.  I grew up in the south.  I can’t tell you how many times the flag came in handy.  You stop for gas at a strange place at two in the morning.  You see that flag hanging in the window.  You know this is NOT the place to get gas.

~Comedian Roy Wood, Jr./Father Figure (2017)

I live in Florida, one of three states along with Texas and Missouri, which account for 40 percent of the total number of new U.S. COVID cases in the last seven days.  A state where the number of new cases has increased by 232 percent over the last two weeks.  And COVID related deaths have risen by 30 percent.

More specifically, my wife and I reside in Nassau County, Florida.  The weekly “Situation Report” provided by the Florida Department of Health (FDOH) reported, for the week of July 9-15, there were 445 new cases.  The new case positivity rate was 24.5 percent and the new cases per 100,000 residents was 499.2.  Both these latter statistics are twice those for the entire state for the same timeframe, positivity rate of 11.5 percent and 207.5 cases per 100,000 population.  In other words, Nassau County is among the worse counties in one of the three worse states in the country when it comes to the fourth wave of the on-going pandemic.

How did Nassau County achieve this “honor?”  The first clue is in that same weekly “Situation Report.”  For the week of July 9-15, the number of new vaccinated county residents totaled 370.  That’s right.  There were 75 more new reported cases than vaccinations.  Therefore, it should be no surprise only 37.1 percent of county residents 18 years old and up are fully vaccinated compared to 60 percent for the country as a whole. [NOTE:  The state used to provide a daily update until Governor Ron DeSantis declared “mission accomplished” and issued several executive orders prohibiting local governments and private businesses from requiring masks or proof of vaccination.]

The above statistics and two experiences Friday morning made me  think about Roy Wood, Jr.  What is the equivalent of the confederate flag during this variant induced surge in new COVID cases?  Do we need something similar that tells us whether an establishment is the place to do business or whether we should move on?  My first stop this morning was at IdentoGo, a federal contractor that facilitates background checks for security clearances including TSA PreCheck.  The email which confirmed the date and time of my appointment included the following, “ALL CUSTOMERS MUST WEAR A FACE COVERING TO ENTER OUR CENTERS. (their emphasis)”  Upon arrival, it was clear the rule was being strictly enforced.  No confederate flags in sight.  I felt safe.

On the way home, I stopped at the local Walmart to pick up a few items.  I put on a mask and approached the store.  In the front window was the following sign.  “Fully vaccinated customers are welcome to shop without a mask.  We will continue to request that non-vaccinated customers wear face coverings in our stores.”  I imagined how Roy Wood might interpret this directive.

It was different from the high point of infections in late January when the newly inaugurated president called for a national mask mandate.  Wood might have welcomed Biden’s directive, suggesting:

But if we get rid of the mask mandate (pause) how am I going to know who the COVIDiots are?

But the current situation is akin to the “what color is the dress” challenge that took over the internet in the winter of 2015.  The message I saw in Walmart’s window was still a “red flag.”  Why?  Because it was not totally accurate.  At the peak of the pandemic, Walmart was one of the safest places to shop due to the stringent enforcement of the mask mandate.  At a risk to their own safety, employees refused to allow the unmasked to enter the store.  To say “we will CONTINUE to REQUEST” (my emphasis) misrepresents their former policy.  They continued nothing.  Instead, they changed their policy from REQUIRE to REQUEST.

A majority of the shoppers, however, saw it as a “green flag” that could be ignored.  How do I know?  Just do the math.  The store was moderately busy, and only a handful of shoppers wore masks.  But for argument’s sake, say it was 10 percent.  Based on the FDOH Situation Report, 63 percent of the customers in Nassau County were likely not to be fully vaccinated.  It was probably higher since that does not account for fully vaccinated individuals, like myself, who out of caution chose to wear face covering.

What’s more, Florida is analogous to an Aesop fable with the title, “The Boy Who Thinks Everyone Else Cried Wolf.”  The protagonist in the story is, of course, Governor DeSantis.  He has ignored concerns voiced by his own health officials and by local officials in the most impacted jurisdictions.  He is spending taxpayers money to sue a cruise line that challenged his executive order prohibiting the company the right to require proof of vaccination to protect both its employees and passengers.

Last weekend, DeSantis chose to participate in an anti-immigration photo op with Texas Governor Greg Abbott at the southern border.  Does he really believe that is the priority when 148 of his constituents died of a virus-related illness in one day (July 23)?  Which, by the way, accounted for 30.2 percent of the total U.S. COVID-related deaths (486) that same day.  When the governor brags Florida has handled the coronavirus better than any other state, he is not lying if you look at the situation from the virus’ perspective.  It is amazing what transpires when you confront a crisis wearing kid gloves.

Furthermore, in the latest “karma is a  bitch” moment, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody tweeted she had tested positive for coronavirus four days after accompanying DeSantis to the Texas border. DeSantis’ office refused to respond to a Miami Herald inquiry “whether the governor would get tested for COVID-19 or take any precautions after coming in close contact with Moody over the weekend.”

At times like these, I imagine how current events would have been covered by individuals who are no longer at the forefront of the news and entertainment industry.  One wonders if 2016 would have turned out differently if Tim Russert had a chance to interview Donald Trump on “Meet the Press.”  Or how David Letterman might have dealt with the misery in New York City during the early days of the pandemic when it was again “ground zero” during another national crisis.

Today, my thoughts turn to Mort Drucker (1929-2020) who, for more than 50 years, drew many of the classic cartoon parodies in Mad Magazine, including the iconic portrait of mop-haired, gap-toothed Alfred E. Newman.  Would the cover of this month’s edition feature a drawing of an ostrich with Ron DeSantis’ head, in front of a hospital or cemetery?  Would he be walking up to a podium bearing the great seal of the state of Florida except on this rendition, instead of “In God We Trust,” the state motto would read, “What, Me Worry!”?

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I am always wary when someone says, “Power to THE people!”  I’ve learned they usually mean, “Power to MY people!”

Senator Joe Biden/September 1974

Biden was the keynote speaker at the annual meeting of the Council of State Community Affairs Agencies in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.  The topic was the consolidation of several legacy programs administered by the the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  Instead, the monies would become state block grants allowing each jurisdiction to determine the allocation among a number of eligible uses (e.g. housing, sewer and water projects).  NOTE:  The proposal was shelved until the 1980s when block grants became a centerpiece of the Reagan administration’s domestic policy.

I start with this story because Biden’s words made me reassess my own understanding of the words “power” and “empowerment.”  Both now seemed more temporal and less absolute.  Power was good in the hands of people who agreed with my values and ideology.  Less so if held by those who did not.  From then on I was skeptical of any debate over the consolidation or decentralization of power.  It may be the reason why I hesitate to advocate eliminating the filibuster, though my skepticism is waning.  But that’s a topic for another day.

Bottom line?  Regardless of one’s view whether power is good or bad, the word itself confuses more than it clarifies.  Which brings me to today’s topic.  I now believe the word “truth” may be the root cause of the political and cultural divisions within the United States.  The proverbial phrase “absolute power corrupts absolutely” also applies to truth.

In Jon Huer’s examination of academia titled Tenure for Socrates, the author explores the misconception facts and truth are one and the same.  He correctly points out facts are discovered; truths are created.  He offers the following as evidence.

Truth, if rejected, is found to be false.  Facts, if rejected, are to be incorrect…Truth is determined by the inquirer’s intention; facts by the inquirer’s outcome.

No truth has been changed by applying further knowledge.  Many a fact, however, has been discarded when proven incorrect.

Consider one of the most iconic exchanges in filmdom history, the court martial confrontation between  Lt. Daniel Kaffee (Tom Cruise) and Colonel Nathan Jessep (Jack Nicholson) in A Few Good Men.

KAFFEE: Jessup, did you order the Code Red?
JESSUP: You want answers?
KAFFEE:  I want the truth!
JESSUP:  You can’t handle the truth!

Jessup then lays out HIS truth based on his personal values and experience.  “Son, we live in a world with walls that must be guarded.”  Does Kaffee challenge Jessup’s truth?  No!  He abandons the quest for truth in exchange for the facts.

KAFFEE: Did you order the Code Red?
JESSUP:  You’re goddamn right I did!

Even as Jessup is dragged out of the courtroom, he continues to justify his actions based on HIS truth.  As Charlton Heston might say, “Jessup will give up his truth when you pry it from his cold, dead hands.”

This fictional example helps explain why the misconception about facts and truths may also be at the heart of tribal divisiveness in the American body politic.  Consider the current debate over critical race theory (CRT).  The concept, introduced in the 1970s at Harvard Law School, posits centuries of institutional racism still have a lasting effect on the financial, legal and social status of minorities in the United States.  At the same time, some of the loudest CRT critics decry the reexamination of pre-Civil War America, including the demotion of confederate generals and political leaders from “heroes” to “seditionists.”  They argue, slavery was critical to half the fledgling country’s economy, without which the U.S. would not have become the commercial powerhouse it is today.  In other words, slavery was an unfortunate but necessary chapter in the nation’s history.

These seemingly conflicting views are not incompatible.  Both admit slavery and antecedent dependence on minority labor, often compensated below the levels of non-minority workers, exist.  That is a fact.   But one tribe’s “truth” is that years of incremental progress on issues of race have adequately addressed past sins.  The other tribe believes those injustices have not yet been reconciled.  And as Huer suggests, no new knowledge or data will loosen the hold those opposing truths have on either tribe.

In closing, let me paraphrase what I heard Joe Biden say 47 years ago.  “Be wary when someone says they are on a quest for THE truth.  What they mean is that they are seeking to affirm THEIR truth.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Do you believe in Jesus? You’re gonna meet Him.

~Charles Bronson as Paul Kersey/Death Wish (1974)

Careful the things you say.
Children will listen.

~Stephen Sondheim/Into the Woods

Too bad the same warning does not apply to adults.  For example, did purveyors of the “big lie” think their constant exhortations to “stop the steal” would not incite an insurrection?  But what I find more disconcerting is adults often do not listen to themselves.

Yesterday, I ran across a prime example in our local newspaper.  Rick Keffer, a prominent businessman and philanthropist in our community, writes a periodic column in which he shares facts and data on a broad range of topics.  For example, having owned the local Chrysler/Jeep dealership before retiring, he would share trade association numbers about automobile production and sales.   I got to know Rick, having served with him on scholarship selection committees and other community efforts.  Every community needs more Rick Keffers.

I forgot to mention Rick is a Republican.  Though we have never had private conversations about politics, I am pretty sure he approves of small government, the last three Supreme Court appointments and the 2017 tax cuts.  His January 8, 2021 column, in anticipation of Joe Biden’s inauguration, was titled, “A Conservative’s Wish List.”   The column was also evidence Rick passed my litmus test, accepting Biden’s win in the 2020 election although he was concerned the 45th president’s agenda was too far to the left for his tastes.

Which brings me to the reason for today’s post.  Keffer’s most recent column is titled, “Happiness and Population.”  He shares his fascination “with the Scandinavian countries and have visited a few briefly.”  He then draws on the March issue of Forbes which included an article, “The 20 Happiest Countries in the World in 2021,” based on the latest “World Happiness Report.”  Among the top ten are Finland (#1), Denmark (#2), Norway (#5), the Netherlands (#6) and Sweden (#7).  For the record, the United States comes in at #18.

He first notes these countries’ populations range from 10.1 million citizens (Sweden) to 5.4 million (Norway).  One would think a life-long member of the GOP would take this opportunity to make the case this proves that “big is bad,” especially big government, although I suspect he valued his association with the Big Three automakers and his stock portfolio includes investment in mega banks, oil companies and tech companies.  But he does not, and that is why I regularly read his column.  Rather than rely on a statistical correlation, he asks the obvious question, “Why are these people so darned happy?”

From what he learned during his travels he suggests the following keys to the quality of life enjoyed by Scandinavian residents.

1. Nature belongs to everyone.  Everyone is allowed to “roam freely in all natural areas, even private property.”
2. They are minimalist and recycle as much as they can.  Not waste, but used items.  Rick points to the Finns who hold a “Cleaning Day,” best described as a national yard sale.
3. A philosophy based on the principle it is never too early to start working on happiness.  This includes community baskets of clothing and other items for every newborn, affordable day care and tax-funded education through university level.
4. Public revenue is 20 percent of personal income.  The United States is currently at 14 percent.  Rick states the same 20 percent standard “would have balanced the 2019 budget.”
5. They are humble, “reluctant to put a polished view of their life on social media or brag about success and wealth.”

Rick concludes, “I have no plans to leave my home on Amelia Island for Scandinavia or anywhere else, but it is interesting to see what makes people tick.”

My question to Rick, “Then why on earth would you not want Americans to be just as happy?”  As sportscaster Warner Wolf would say, “Let’s go to the video tape.”

1. Access to nature is good, but you supported an administration which reduced the amount of public lands, leased public lands to private companies and eased environmental protections which decreased the habitability of natural assets.
2. Changing attitudes and behavior related to material assets would be both difficult and even devastating for an economy driven by consumption of goods.  But the increase in savings rate in the U.S. during the pandemic suggests  many of us can survive without things we might want but do not necessarily need.  Maybe it is time to pass a few of those along to those who could use them.
3. Affordable child care and education funding through university level contribute to happiness?  Thank you Rick for making one of the best arguments yet in support of the Biden human infrastructure program.  Will you now urge our two senators and Congressman Rutherford to support a negotiated version of the plan instead of “just saying no?”
4. Since you suggest Americans are under taxed, are you ready to support repeal of the 2017 tax cuts, especially in light of the 130 countries that have agreed to a minimum global tax which counters the original “my tax rate is lower than your tax rate” justification for the corporate tax cuts.
5. And you were okay with the least humble individual in America for four years. If “it ain’t bragging if it’s true,” what do you call it when such bluster is not bona fide?

Bottom line, an increasing number of the GOP leadership and right-wing media call the very things you describe as contributing to happiness to be radical, socialism and even communism.   They claim such government interference will destroy America.  You cannot have it both ways, which is why well-intentioned individuals like Rick Keffer remind me of another Sondheim musical Company.  And in particular, the song, “You Could Drive a Person Crazy.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP