I have been wrong about a lot of things over the last five years.  I believed Donald Trump would eventually cross a line over which other elected Republican officials would not sacrifice their own futures.  WRONG!  I thought Democrats would maintain their huge majority in the House of Representatives and retake the Senate with at least 52 Democratic seats this year.  WRONG!

However, on one thing I was right.  Every time someone told me they were worried voter suppression would result in a second Trump term, I replied, “People will walk through fire to vote this year.  If nothing else, 2016 proved elections matter.”  And vote they did, for both candidates.  2020 was just one more example of the adage, “People do not realize how precious something is until it is taken away.”  In this case, they only needed someone to try and take it away.

And without meaning to, the first president of the United States who openly advocated a coup d’etat saved American democracy by intervening in the natural order of things.  As mentioned in previous blog entries, the United States is living on borrowed time according to Alexis de Tocqueville, who, based on history, theorized the average life of a great civilization was 200 years.  Pushing 244 years since declaring its independence, America is playing with house money.

But closer examination suggests de Tocqueville’s prediction, though delayed, was still highly probable, if not already underway.  The fact our national downfall was happening at a slower than average pace also meant it was more incremental and not as apparent.  America had become the proverbial frog in a kettle of water rising in temperature little by little, not realizing it would soon die having boiled to death.

Scottish philosopher Alexander Fraser Tyler developed the paradigm by which the destructive heat which dooms civilizations rises incrementally over time.  His description of the rise and fall of geopolitical societies consists of the following eight stages.

From bondage to spiritual growth.
From spiritual growth to great courage.
From great courage to liberty.
From liberty to abundance.
From abundance to complacency.
From complacency to apathy.
From apathy to dependence.
From dependence back to bondage.

By no means is the time period between each stage to the next equal in length.  In the case of the United States, one can argue the first four stages lasted three and a half centuries spanning from the arrival of the Mayflower to the post-World War II era, ending in the mid-1960s at the juncture of the Great Society and the Vietnam War.  The only argument I might have with Tyler is the description of stage five, substituting “arrogance” for “complacency.”  Was it not a feeling of infallibility which seeded missteps in international events such as Vietnam, 9/11 and the second Iraq war?

This period of complacency/arrogance quickly led to apathy, characterized by the decline in interest in government and politics most evident in the constant decrease in percentage of Americans who exercised their right to vote.  Until finally, in 2016, enough voters to carry the electoral college, turned to a candidate who claimed, “Only I can fix it.”  The very definition of dependency revolves around the notion of reliance on others who tell you to stand down.  They will handle everything for you.

Which brings me back to the title of this post.  Donald Trump, by turning up the temperate so high, so abruptly, alerted the frogs in the kettle to what was happening.  They recognized the danger they were in and committed to do whatever it required to change the all but certain outcome.  Trump may brag about the 74 million voters who cast ballots for him, but more importantly, he awakened more than 81 million American who declared, “America is not ready to give up on democracy.  Not on our watch.”

The only remaining question?  Having come so close to stage eight of the cycle, from dependence to bondage, has America been given a second chance to start over at stage one, advancing from near-bondage to spiritual growth? Based on the 2020 outcome, when Americans turned to a candidate who made the centerpiece of his campaign “a fight for the soul of the Nation,” a spiritual mantra even an agnostic can believe in, perhaps there is a chance.  And for that, we owe Donald Trump.  Without him, politics in America over the last five years would have been business as usual, most likely in an incrementally advancing direction which, in time, would have proved the validity of both de Tocqueville’s and Tyler’s predictions about the path the United States otherwise might have taken.

The media keep referring to America as more divided than any time since the War Between the States.  To continue the analogy, the structure on the West Capitol steps will become the modern equivalent of Appomattox on January 20th.  And the Biden administration will be responsible for the next Reconstruction.  To avoid the mistakes and lingering animosity of bringing a nation back together for the second time will take spiritual growth and courage by both sides.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

A plague o’ both your houses!

~Mercutio/Romeo & Juliet/Act III, Scene 1

Like the coronavirus pandemic, stupidity does not care whether you are a Democrat or a Republican.  This sad fact of life was never more evident based on the actions this week by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Let’s start with Governor Cuomo, who on Wednesday signed a bill into law banning the sale or display of Confederal battle flags on state property despite the fact the legislation may violate First Amendment protection of free speech and expression.  Cuomo acknowledged this saying, “…certain technical changes are necessary to balance the State’s interests in preventing the use of hate symbols on state land with free speech protections…”  For the record, the bill also applied to other “symbols of hate” such as swastikas.

I suspect one person who might file an amicus brief when the constitutionality of the ban comes before a judge will be Roy Wood, Jr.  Some of you may recognize Wood as “the senior black correspondent” on “The Daily with Trevor Noah.”  However, his rationale against banning the Confederate flag was first voiced during his “Father Figure” comedy special on Comedy Central during which his opening after taking the stage before a largely African-American audience was:

But if we get rid of the Confederate flag…

Then, following nervous laughter and a few gasps from those in attendance, he explained:

How am I going to know who the dangerous white people are? I’m just saying, the flag had a couple upsides. Let’s just be real about it. I ain’t saying keep it around, but I grew up in the South. I can’t tell you how many times the Confederate flag came in handy. Stopping for gas at a strange place at 2 in the morning, you see that flag hanging from the window, you know this is not the place to get gas…

Makes sense.  Which would you prefer?  That white supremacists and anti-Semites travel among us unidentified?  Or that they proudly wear their bigotry on their sleeve so we can just as proudly avoid them?  One can only hope this new form of “concealed carry” does not become a movement in which red states start issuing licenses by which citizens can pack miniature Confederate flags.  Or that Wayne LaPierre does not declare, “The only way to stop a bad guy with a ‘black lives matter’ banner is a good old guy with a Confederate flag.”

Which brings me to Mitch McConnell.  You remember Mitch, the guy who spent hundreds of millions of dollars during the 2020 campaign backing “law and order” Senate candidates, warning Americans that calls to “defund the police” would lead to lawlessness and chaos in the streets.  Well, Mitch was right.  However, what he did not tell you is that he would be the one to “defund the police.”

Despite bi-partisan pleas from governors and mayors that lost revenues, a result of the economic impact of the pandemic, would force layoffs of  essential first responders including firefighters and police, the Republican Senate continues to exclude any public sector support in the next COVID-19 relief package.  As recently as December 10, the majority leader criticized what he calls “controversial state bailouts,” but continues to push for blanket employer liability protection.  Once again, to paraphrase Barry Goldwater, a not-so-free-market “corporate bailout” in defense of capitalism is no vice.

In July, a Brookings Institute study reported state and local governments had already laid off more than 1.5 million workers including teachers, firefighters and police.  The report goes on to predict “deep budget and job cuts in state and local government will likely grow in the next few months and fester for years to come.”

President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have all distanced themselves from the “defund the police” movement.  Miser Mitch, maybe it’s time you do the same.

It just goes to prove, stupid is as stupid does, no matter which side of the aisle you sit on.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

In defense of her decision to move forward with impeachment last December, House Speaker quoted Benjamin Franklin who replied to an inquiry about the nature of government laid out in the newly adopted Constitution,  “A republic, if we can keep it.”  On a day when the electoral college will affirm the selection of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States, I think there is an even more appropriate message from a less well known figure.

The year was 1991.  Among my responsibilities as a policy director at the National Governors Association was helping states implement the Americans with Disabilities Act which passed the previous year.  In that role, I was often invited to meetings of the National Council on Disabilities, established by President George H. W. Bush.  My introduction to the group was a session in the Treaty Room in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building (then known simply as the Old Executive Office Building).  The chairwoman was the1982 Ms. Wheelchair America  from Maryland Marian Schooling-Vessels.

The topic that day was accelerating compliance, especially accessibility.  There was general agreement among the Council members this was among the thornier issues because it involved money, the cost of adding ramps, elevators and, in some cases, total reconstruction of public facilities to accommodate those who could not maneuver in narrow corridors or around sharp corners.  While the 1990 act included fines for non-compliance, the Council felt persuasion was a better path to follow.  Get public officials to make the necessary changes, not because they had to, but because it was the right thing to do.

But how?  What was the message?  It was then Ms. Schooling-Vessels presented an argument which has stuck with me for 30 years which I can only paraphrase here.

In the past, we have asked people, “Imagine you were disabled.  Put yourself in our shoes.”  But the truth is they WILL be in our shoes.  They look at us and see a disabled person.  We need to remind them we look at them and see a “temporarily abled” person.

On this day, when the electors cast their votes for the next president we must remember America has been and always will be a “temporary democracy.”  The time has come for Americans to stop referring to autocracies  as though they were politically and morally disabled.  Or that they are entities we need to accommodate so that we can co-exist.  Instead, we need to prepare for a time when other democracies might look at the United States and say, “Who could imagine such a healthy republic would become so politically disabled?  How do we restructure alliances (as though they were non-accessible facilities) to accommodate this new reality?”

Some believe the last four years were that time and today’s electoral conclave is the beginning of political and moral rehabilitation.  But unlike the COVID-19 vaccine which is also in the news on this historic day, there is no permanent antidote for disability.  One can go from temporarily abled to disabled and back on multiple occasions over a lifetime.  The same is true for nations.

So the next time you hear a family member, friend or colleague suggest American democracy dodged a bullet in 2020, just add, “This time.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP