There are no consolation prizes in electoral politics.  And if the sun still came up this morning, we did not see it.  It is gray and raining on Amelia Island, Florida, the only appropriate weather to match what so many of us are feeling.  So, I know there is nothing I can say that will stem your disappointment and fear of the future.  Nor am I going to point fingers or, for the 14th million time, wonder, “How can people keep voting against their own self-interest?”  Perhaps former Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill best summed it up this morning. “Donald Trump understood the American people better than we did.”

My message this morning is actually quite positive.  Regular readers know I often opine about the challenges of living in Nassau County, Florida where Republican voters outnumber Democrats 3:1.  This year, however, with the help of my wife, a long-time friend and a couple of newer ones, we decided not to let our minority status keep us from doing whatever we could for the cause.  The five of us put up the front money to run a full-page ad in our local papers.  The message was simple.  Democrats in statewide races are not going to carry Nassau County, but we can do our part.  Within 48 hours of sharing this strategy with kindred spirits, we doubled our resources and made a commitment for a series of three ads.

I am pleased to report that this loosely organized collection of county residents, whom we call “a cabal of good troublemakers,” to honor Congressman John Lewis’ memory, WE DID IT.  With 99 percent of Florida votes tabulated, Kamala Harris received 633,000 FEWER statewide votes than Joe Biden in 2020.  However, in Nassau County, Harris’ total votes INCREASED to 17,101 compared to Biden’s total of 15,564 four years ago.  In other words, voters in our ruby red jurisdiction dramatically outperformed the state average.

However, as a trained behavioral social scientist, I would be foolish to equate correlation with causation.  A major factor in this success story was another ad hoc group of individuals who heeded Michelle Obama’s call “to do something.”  The Amelia Island Postcard Writers, a group of overwhelmingly female volunteers, sent more than 21,000 handwritten postcards to Nassau County voters.  Their first target audience were registered Democrats who had not voted in either 2020 or 2022.  That wise strategic decision surely contributed to this cycle’s higher Democratic turnout.

If that were not enough, the brightest ray of light on a otherwise dark day was the success of two challengers who defeated incumbent city commissioners, including one who is a member of the most prominent political family in northeast Florida.  In what, by law, is supposed to be a non-partisan local election, the two incumbents received the majority of their funding from a Republican PAC based in Tallahassee.  In addition, the PAC covered the printing and mailing of materials replete with disinformation about the incumbents’ opponents.  Fortunately, a writer for the local on-line newspaper, immediately exposed the connection between the incumbents and their dark money source.

To be honest, when my friend announced she was taking on the incumbent mayor, the latest acorn to fall from the oak that overshadows local politics, I did not think she had a “snowball’s chance in hell.” But from day one, when she reached out to the community not only for support, but also for advice, you had no choice but to jump on  the bandwagon.  Equally important, she did not let the questionable tactics of her opponent faze her.  She stayed on message, showed up everywhere and insisted she could win.  And by George, she did.

What do these three rays of light have in common?  None were initiated or managed by an official arm of an “organized” political party.  Each effort organically emerged among a small group of individuals who did not wait to be told what to do or how to do it.  For lack of a better term, one might call it “political entrepreneurship.”  Just as Skype disrupted the telephone industry, this non-traditional, innovative approach to politics fits the classical definition of entrepreneurship, “creative destruction.”  Maybe it’s time to bring in a few more wrecking balls.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I have no idea who he is. Somebody said there was a comedian that joked about Puerto Rico or something. And I have no idea who it was. Never saw him. Never heard of him, and don’t want to hear of him. But I have no idea.

Donald J. Trump/October 29, 2024

Maybe it’s a stupid, racist joke, as you said; maybe it’s not. I haven’t seen it. I’m not gonna comment on the specificity of the joke … but I think that we have to stop getting offended at every little thing in the United States of America, I’m just so over it.

Senator J.D. Vance/October 28, 2024

If you are going to compare Donald Trump to a Nazi, as his running mate did in 2015, describing him as “America’s Hitler, the least you can do is use the right metaphor.  J.D., if you think others get “offended at every little thing,” let’s see if you are “just so over” this.

For the record, Donald Trump is nothing like Adolf Hitler.  Hitler was responsible for the death of six million Jews and millions of other innocent people.  Trump, based on his incompetent response to the early days of the COVID pandemic, was only responsible for 400,000 preventable deaths, based on an analysis by the Lancet Commission on Public Policy and Health, of U.S. fatalities compared to other industrialized nations .  There is one other distinction.  Co-anchor Ronny Cheung suggested on last night’s edition of “The Daily Show,” Trump cannot be a Nazi.  Nazis served in their country’s army.

Back to J.D. Vance.  Hitler is the wrong comparison.  When I listen to this dysfunctional duo say things, like the above quotes, I do not think of Adolf Hitler.  The only Nazi that comes to mind is Sgt. Hans Georg Schultz (John Banner) in the CBS sitcom “Hogan’s Heroes” (1965-71). Maybe you remember his excuse after every incident when the Allied POWs whom he monitored outwitted him and the stalag commander.  To cover his incompetence, he would tell his superiors, “I hear nothing.  I see nothing.  I know nothing.”

There is one difference between Schultz and the Batty-Man Trump and his boy wonder Vance, when it comes to their response to insult comic Tony Hinchcliffe?  The only people who outwitted this dysfunctional duo were themselves.  Trump admitted what most of us already know.  “I had no idea.”  I guess, in this case, Trump did not even have the concept of an idea.  And he protests that the comic was unvetted even though the media reports Trump staffers watched him workshop the material at The Stand, a New York City comedy club.

However, in MAGA world one lie is only valuable if it is repeated and amplified.  On Monday night, Trump told Sean Hannity:

Now what they’ve done is taken somebody that has nothing to do with the party, has nothing to do with us, said something, and they try and make a big deal. But I don’t know who it is.

Not true, according the The Bulwark.

“He [Hinchcliffe] had a joke calling [Vice President Kamala] Harris a ‘cunt,’” a campaign insider involved in the discussions about the event told The Bulwark. “Let’s say it was a red flag.”  Campaign staffers had asked all speakers to submit drafts of their speeches ahead of time—before they were loaded into the teleprompter—according to the aforementioned sources. Once the objectionable “cunt” joke was spotted, the sources said, a staffer asked Hinchcliffe to strike it. He complied.

Pardon my rambling. It is so easy to get off track, but the brilliance comes from bringing it all together in beautiful “weave.”  Back to J.D. Vance.  What does his response say about his potential performance as vice president.? The joke about Puerto Rico and negative reactions were on the front page of every major U.S. newspaper and the lead story on every broadcast and cable news program.  But he did not see it, so he says.  Just imagine a situation where he is asked his response to the next mass shooting, natural disaster, health crisis or economic downturn. I can hear him “hedging” now.  “I haven’t seen it?  I’m not gonna comment on the specificity of the situation.”  

Let me close by asking, “Messrs. Trump and Vance, when the National Guard shows up at my door, will you be okay when I tell them, ‘I had nothing to do with this blog.  I never saw it.  I don’t know who wrote it.  You have to stop getting offended by every little thing someone writes about you. You need to just get over it.'”

I doubt it will work with them.  It should not work for us either.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.

~President Richard Nixon/November 3, 1969

In this excerpt from a televised address to the nation outlining his plan to end the war in Vietnam, Richard Nixon coined the phrase “silent majority.”  His target audience was Americans who rarely if ever spoke about politics, citizens he was convinced had voted for him the year before and would assure his re-election in 1972.   With the help of a divided Democratic Party and a weak nominee, Nixon made his re-election landslide an “I told you so” moment.

Every time I hear pollsters talk about the undercounted support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, I wonder if a “silent majority” will carry him to a second term in November.  Though my first thought always is, “Trump supporters are anything but silent.”  Which begged the question, “This time, could there be a pro-Harris silent majority not measured by the boisterous enthusiasm at every one of her rallies?”  But maybe, just maybe, it is more complicated than that.  What if, the polls are undercounting Harris’ support because, when it comes to being contacted by polling organizations they are not just silent.  They are also downright scared.

Consider the following evidence starting with the way protesters are treated differently at Trump and Harris rallies. There is a reason why you do not see pro-choice or pro-Palestinian advocates at a Trump rally. From the stage, Trump encourages his faithful fans “to knock the crap out of hecklers.”  He has even offered to cover their legal expenses if they are arrested and charged with physical assault. 

In contrast, Harris merely brushes them off as she did when two students began shouting “Christ is King” as she was telling a University of Wisconsin-Lacrosse audience how reversing Roe v. Wade endangered women’s health and lives.  She calmly told the protesters, “I think you’re at the wrong rally.  You must be looking for the smaller one down the street.”  The students surely anticipated the crowd’s disapproval.  However, they also knew their safety was not in danger.

Which brings me to the difference between polling and voting.  When you vote in Florida, an election official hands you a folder containing your ballot.  The folder is numbered, but the ballot is not.  When you separate the two and insert your ballot in the scanning device, the folder is laid aside.  At that point, your name is no longer associated with the scanned ballot and the privacy of your vote is protected.

Not so with polling operations.  When a worker for a polling organization calls you, their source is most often state or local voter registration lists.  And if they have your phone number, they also have your name and address.  More importantly, they seldom identify who they are working for.  And if they do, it is not an easily recognizable polling company such as Gallup.

Which begs a new question, “What are the potential consequences of providing information to a stranger who can then link your candidate preference to personal information?”  Any answer I might suggest pales in comparison to the range of options Donald Trump repeated multiple times this past week he might employ.  Anyone who challenges his authority or even simply disagrees with him is referred to as “the enemy within.” And Trump has said he might employ the National Guard, or if necessary, the U.S. Army to take care of his opponents.  Or drag them before a military tribunal as he threatened to do with Liz Cheney.  Or execute a general like Mark Milley for daring to converse with his Chinese counterpart to alleviate any possible miscalculation by either side during the chaos on January 6, 2021.

Bottom line.  Whenever I receive a call that begins, “Do you have a minute to give your opinion,” I simply hang up the phone.  Do I expect an armed militia will show up at my front door?  No.  But like former FBI director James Comey or his deputy Andrew McCabe, I do wonder if a Trump “Schedule F” (see page 80 of Project 2025) loyalist in the bowels of the IRS building will order my tax returns be audited.  Or whether a toady in the State Department invalidates my passport.  Or a mini-Trump in local government has my house re-assessed.

So, if you are wondering how can the polls possibly be so close, there are three possible answers.  One, there really is a majority of voters who think America would be a better place under authoritarian rule.  Two, changes in demographics and the absence of new pro-Harris voter registrants in the polling samples have skewed the results.  Or three, there is a silent, scared majority who decided it was prudent to just keep their powder dry and speak with their ballots rather than their voices.

For the nation’s sake and future, I am betting it is a combination of the second and third.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I had a dream which I shared with readers on the last day of the Democratic National Convention.  The finale of Kamala Harris’ and Tim Walz’ coming out party would be a live performance of Beyoncé’s “Freedom,” accompanied by Taylor Swift.  Privately, however, I lamented my fantasy trifecta which included Bruce Springsteen would never happen since “The Boss” had booked a concert in Pittsburgh that night.

The United Center in Chicago would be rocking, but it was not about the music.  It was each performer’s targeted message that confirmed the central theme of the Harris/Walz campaign.  The Democratic ticket knows success depends on the extent to which the campaign can energize two constituencies and narrow Donald Trump’s advantage with a third.

There is no question this is a “turnout” election.  At the top of that list are minorities and women.  And the biggest challenge is motivating younger members of these cohorts.  Swift is the messenger of empowerment for young women.  Likewise, in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement, Beyoncé is the oracle of African-American empowerment.  Who better to remind potential voters in these demographics that their aspirational paths are more easily traversed in an environment of hope and opportunity rather than one of hate and retribution.

However, that is not enough.  Every Democratic pundit constantly reminds us Harris cannot win if Trump’s margin among white voters, and especially white men, eclipses her advantage among traditional Democratic voters.  Which is why yesterday may have been the most important 24 hours in the last month of this election cycle.

It started with the joint appearance by Harris and Liz Cheney in Ripon, Wisconsin, the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Unlike so many of Harris’ rally, the audience was as vanilla as you’ll ever see at a Democratic event.  This historic event did something no previous rally or Harris TV appearance could do.  Because it was unprecedented, it HAD to be covered by all the media outlets.  And how did Cheney use this opportunity?  First, she delivered a civics lesson about the what her party used to stand for:  smaller government, lower taxes, a strong military and global leadership.  These are all the things she told us she looks forward to debating in the future.

And then, knowing that right-wing media were under-reporting evidence of Trump’s criminal acts in Jack Smith’s recent filing, Cheney shared critical excerpts with the those at the event and the television audience.” And then she put the last nail in the coffin.  Before lowering the hammer, she reminded us that once GOP candidates ran under the banner of “compassionate conservativism.”  Then BAM, no one who says “So what!” when he is told that his own vice-president is in harm’s way has a compassionate bone in his body.  According to Cheney, the only word to describe such behavior is “depravity.”

That was just Act I of this morality play.  As the Harris/Cheney love fest was winding down, Springsteen released a video in which he endorsed the Harris/Walz ticket.  It contained what may be the most subliminal, yet powerful message possible (below).

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are committed to a vision of this country that respects and includes everyone, regardless of class, religion, race, your political point of view or sexual identity.  That’s the vision of America I’ve been consistently writing about for 55 years.

He could have been more heavy-handed.  “You know why you come to my concerts and stream my albums.  You are drawn to the same things that inspired me to write the lyrics and compose the music.  A vote for Donald Trump is a denial of that bond between me the entertainer and you the audience all these years.”  But Springsteen respects his fans too much to insult their intelligence.

I still dream of Beyoncé, Swift and Springsteen on stage together.  But if it comes the night Harris is declared the winner or at an inaugural concert on the Washington mall, I am okay with that.  It is now up to us ensure it happens.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

P.S.  I confess, Springsteen was never on my playlists, and  I could not name more than two of his songs.  But, as I write this post, I have been listening to a live recording of his December 14, 2023 concert in Boston.  And I was inspired.  So, as the title of today’s post says, “Better late than never.”