If there had been a Star Trek episode about the 2020 election, Captain Kirk would have constantly reminded the crew their “prime directive” was to ensure the alien being who threatened civilization for the last four years would not be given another quadrennial lease to foment division and chaos. In the final scene, once the intruder is vanquished, Mr. Spock would have suggested to Kirk, Dr. McCoy and Scottie, “Success was inevitably logical. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.”
But life is not a science fiction series where every issue is resolved in 60 minutes minus commercial breaks. Such is the case this week as one tries to make sense of the disparity between Donald Trump’s pending defeat and the Democrats’ loss of House seats, failure to take control of the Senate (though still possible with the Georgia run-offs) and equally important, flipped control of three state legislatures which will now be in charge of congressional redistricting in 2021. Let’s be honest. On election day, a majority of American voters, ready to oust Trump, otherwise rejected the Democratic Party brand. And to be brutally honest, if the Republican nominee had been anyone other than a disgusting human being who demonstrated gross incompetence in handling a major health crisis, Joe Biden probably would not be the imminent president-elect this morning.
In the coming months and years, much will be written by political pundits and historians about the reasons for this incongruity. As they did in 2016, researchers will be talking to Obama/Trump/Biden voters and Biden vote splitters who can only be described as consumers who based their purchasing preferences more on what they disliked than what they wanted. How do I know this? All one has to do is look at Florida. Consider the following:
- Despite optimistic predictions Democrats could retake Florida, Trump won the state by three percentage points, more than double his margin in 2016.
- Yet, 62 percent of Florida voters approved a constitutional amendment to raise the state’s minimum wage to $15/hours over the next four years, a priority among Democrats.
- Voters also rejected an attempt by Republicans to change the rules for approving constitutional amendments, requiring they pass by 60 percent in two consecutive general elections, instead of just once. NOTE: This proposed change was precipitated by the passage of a constitutional amendment in 2018 which allowed ex-felons to automatically be eligible to vote once they had served their sentences.
Not to beat a dead horse, but I have pointed out this irony on multiple occasions. The GOP continues to win elections even though they are on the wrong side of most 60/40 issues. Climate change. Economic and social justice. Universal background checks. Reproductive rights. And yet they continue to win.
Politics is no different than business except it uses a difference vocabulary. You can have a questionable product but still be successful with the right marketing campaign. Examples include “the new Nixon,” “compassionate conservatism” and even “the comeback kid.” In contrast, you may offer a product or service that exceeds anything previously available and fail if you cannot convey the value of your offering to the consumer. The same principles apply to policies and political messaging. Consider the following:
- Americans understand the need to address racial bias in law enforcement, but not if it is labeled “defund the police.”
- Seventy percent of Americans fear they may still contract COVID-19, but will not take the necessary steps to suppress the virus when told mandates are an assault on personal liberty. However, they tolerate mandatory seat belt requirements and airport screening.
- An overwhelming majority of voters recognize the growing wealth gap between the rich and poor, but reject potential remedies if viewed as “income redistribution” or heaven forbid, “socialism.” Worse yet, voters support a party that exacerbates the problem through tax policies rewarding accumulated capital instead of labor.
- Democrats could not convince Cuban-Americans in Miami/Dade County authoritarian Donald Trump had more in common with their nemesis Fidel Castro than social-democrat Bernie Sanders ever would.
Why did Biden win and the Democratic agenda lost? Because there were other groups who shared the Democrats’ “prime directive,” including the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump. While their original target market was disenchanted Republicans, I believe their videos helped generate the historic Democratic turnout. Their ads laid out what was at stake if Trump was re-elected more clearly than just about everything the Democrats or the Biden campaign produced.
Joe Biden claims he plans to work as hard for those who voted against him as those who supported him. You do not prove that during a political campaign. You affirm that promise by how you govern. A majority of Americans, including Wall Street, intellectually believes Biden’s agenda will be better for the country than a non-existent Trump second term platform. But will they buy it emotionally? That is where messaging and the messengers come in.
If I was Joe Biden, the second call* I would make after officially being named president-elect would be to the Lincoln Project founders. First, I would thank them for contributing to my victory. Second, I would ask how much would it cost for them to work with my communications office to build a national consensus around one or two major issues which require immediate attention. Their response will answer the question many Democrats have asked. Were folks like Steve Schmidt, Rick Wilson, Jennifer Horn and Michael Steele hoping to save the GOP from the Trumpists or did they do it to save America?
*The first call should be to Jim Clyburn, the South Carolina representative who galvanized the African-American vote for Biden during the state’s primary last March. Clyburn reignited the Biden campaign with a single declaration, “We know Joe. But most importantly, Joe knows us.” Biden’s success in reuniting much of the country will depend on whether marginal Trump voters feel the same way over the next four years.
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP
In contrast, the proponents who have been saying “let Trump be Trump” got exactly what they wished for. And what is their morning-after assessment? Even though spineless Republican senators danced around Trump’s responsibility for the fiasco, they found, as Mr. Spock warned, the debate was not as pleasing as they wanted.
However, we never get to the second question for which I take personal responsibility. Probably because I had not given it much thought until Trump’s recent comments and Barton Gellman’s article in The Atlantic, “The Election That Could Break America,” which documents the ways Trump and the GOP might claim victory despite a vote tally in which Joe Biden wins both the popular and electoral votes. These new data points make the nature of Trump’s continued occupancy of the Oval Office a legitimate criterion in the conversation about staying or leaving the country. And perhaps, the one deserving the most weight.