Sometimes I find choosing the appropriate metaphor for what is happening in the United State a challenge.  Today is NOT one of the occasions.  Why?  Because two events in the past 48 hours–Hurricane Laura and violence in Kenosha, Wisconsin following the shooting of Jacob Blake–share a common teaching moment.  Both remind us any attempt to isolate the cause and effect of an event is an oversimplification of the situation.

Understanding this helps us separate the symptoms from the root cause that trigger the chronology from one state of being to the next. When examining this sequence of activity it is important to understand it is not “this” caused “that.”  It is more like “this” caused “this” that eventually leads to “this.”  My worst fear is there is no “that.”  There is no terminal episode.  And that fear played out two days ago in Kenosha.

Let’s begin with Laura.  This morning the coastal area of Louisiana woke up to massive destruction which one might say was the direct result of a category 4 hurricane.  But this storm was different from others which have ravaged the Gulf coast in the past.  Historically, hurricanes have gathered strength from the time they form off the African coast, their power derived from the long journey across the warm waters of the southern Atlantic.  In contrast, Laura formed just east of the Virgin Island and remained a tropical storm until it entered the Gulf of Mexico.  Then, it grew from a rain event into a category 4 hurricane in less than two days, unprecedented in the annals of National Weather Service records.

This was no accident.  The speed at which the storm intensified was due to the record high water temperatures in the Gulf.  Again, no accident.  Take one more step backwards and we see the deviation in water temperature is due to a failure to address the effects of climate change.  Due to a belief by some that economic growth and environmental protection are incompatible.  Cause, cause, cause, cause, effect.  But does it really end there?  If Laura-like storms become the rule rather than the exception, future economic, social and national security consequences are yet to come.

When I began this post, I was not quite sure which development was the metaphor which explains the other.  But the chain of events in Kenosha make it a better illustration of the “cause, cause, effect syndrome.”  Rather than a timeline, perhaps a road map covering 244 years of American history is the better teaching tool.

Our trip begins in Philadelphia in 1789 with the adoption of the U.S. Constitution.  Article I, Section 3 is a good starting point.

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other Persons.

Talk about political correctness.  The word “slave” does not appear in the document.  Instead, slaves are referred to as “all other People.”  And are undervalued at three-fifths of “free Persons.”  This morning, Eddie Glaude, Jr., professor of African American Studies at Princeton University, labeled this provision the “code of slavery” which, even though addressed in the Thirteenth Amendment, remains the underpinning of structural racism in American and especially among some police officers.  The life of these “other Persons” still is not worth the same as we “free Persons.”

The second leg of our journey is a long one, lasting 155 years, during which we keep trying to scale the mountain of systemic bias in hopes of seeing the promise land on the other side.  There have been temporary glimpses of that vision but it is never fully realized.  And like Moses, far too many of those who lead us on this journey will not, themselves, enjoy the rewards of their efforts.

Finally, at warp speed, we arrive in Kenosha, Wisconsin where Jacob Blake, a 29 year-old black father of three, is immobilized by a policeman who grabs his shirt and then shoots him seven times in the back.  This is the mid-point in the cause, cause, effect cycle.  The root cause is the “three-fifths compromise.”  Its lasting effect precipitates Jim Crow as too many Americans refuse to accept the Thirteenth Amendment.  And the continuing debate about the value of a black life opens the door to police brutality when dealing with people of color.

But, as mentioned above, it is the midpoint, not the end.  Our journey from 1789 to the present continues.  Anger over the shooting of Jacob Blake leads to protests in the streets of Kenosha.  And sadly, despite pleas by Blake’s parents not to dishonor their son through acts of violence and destruction, that anger precipitates disorder and lawlessness.  Which causes a 17 year-old with a semi-automatic weapon to drive to Kenosha from his home in Grayslake, Illinois because, as he tells the right-wing website The Daily Caller founded by Tucker Carlson, the night before he kills two protesters and critically injures another, “People are getting injured, and our job is to protect this business.”  More cause, cause, effect.

If there is anyone who honestly believes this is where the story ends, I have a portfolio of penny stocks I am willing to sell you.  The only question is whether this resort to vigilantism, which appears to have been ignored, even supported, by Kenosha police, causes more violence as once peaceful protesters now feel compelled to protect themselves from these self-appointed guardians of the citizenry.  Or will it be a long overdue wake-up call to more Americans who now understand a black man, who at worse, for the crime of having a knife in his vehicle, is gunned down by police while a white teenager who just murdered two people is allowed to spend the night in his own bed.

The destination is still uncertain.  Tonight, we may get the answer to that question.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The downfall of many corporate giants comes from their believing they are “the smartest people in the room.”  One need look no further than Bethany McLean’s chronicle of boardroom hubris The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron.  In recent cinema annals, the go-to actor when casting the self-proclaimed genius among peers is Jesse Eisenberg.  Whether portraying real-life characters such as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network (2010) or the fictional magician Danny Atlas in Now You See Me (2013), Eisenberg exudes the right mix of confidence and arrogance to forewarn viewers he will eventually get his comeuppance.

One thing is a sure bet.  Any individual who proclaims to be “the smartest person in the room” probably isn’t.  So, when Donald Trump maintains he is a “stable genius” you can bet the mortgage on a roll of the dice at any bankrupt Trump casino, he is neither.  Even his most avid supporters know that.  Then why, you ask, can 40 percent of the voting population believe he deserves another four years in office?  Because, like most decisions we make in life, it depends less on what we know than what we feel.

The same is true when we decide which presidential candidate deserves our support.  The proof is not in the winners, but the also-rans.  Michael Kukakis ran on a platform of “technical competence” after four years of Ronald Reagan platitudes that sounded more like Hallmark greeting cards than an agenda for the future.  Al Gore was going to save the planet, but nobody wanted to sit down with him because they knew he would dominate the conversation.  He thought he already had all the answers.  Mitt Romney was the ideal candidate to prove what America needed was a businessman in the White House but made his pitch in macro-esque terms, not micro-appeals to individuals.  Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren had plans for everything, but the majority of voters could not have cared less.  Why aren’t party platforms given more attention?  One simple reason.  They don’t matter.

Which brings me back to the enigma of Trump’s support.  If the polling is correct, the question that is the single most reliable predictor of voting preference is, “Which candidate cares most about people like me?”  You know, that empathy thing.  But as Bill Clinton would have said, “It depends on what the definition of empathy is.”  If you are a living, breathing human being with a heart, you ask, “How could anyone vote for a man who time and time again fails to acknowledge the loss of 150,000 Americans to COVID19, even if his assertion is true that many more would have died but for his administration’s response?”  The media outlets drive home this point with split screen images of Trump and Biden.  One claims, “It is what it is.”  The other, “I know what it’s like to lose a member of your family and, believe me, there will be a day when a smile comes to your face before a tear comes to your eye.”

No contest?  I repeat, it depends on what the definition of empathy is.  Consider the following examples which explain how Trump’s coalition of support can include both billionaire Sheldon Adelson and former KKK grand dragon David Duke.

• “Look at my stock portfolio.  Joe Biden would not have encouraged the Federal Reserve Bank to buy up stock after the market tanked in March.  Just goes to show, Trump cares about people like me.”
• “America has always been a Eurocentric, Christian nation.  Trump understands that.  He cares about people like me.”
• “I’m tired of the government telling me how many hours I can drive my rig.  I’m paid by the mile.  Getting rid of unnecessary safety regulations shows Trump cares about people like me.”
• “Trump is the only person out there who stands up for law enforcement officers reminding people we are not responsible for a few bad apples.  He cares about people like me.”
• “No one can force me to wear a mask.  Trump cares about people like me who believe in individual freedom.”

Put them all together and what have you got?  Forty to 42 percent of the voting population.

Yet, it also explains why 42 percent is also the likely ceiling of support this time around and the decline in support among two groups who were critical to Trump’s electoral college victory in 2016: the elderly and women.  Let’s start with older voters.  They may have healthy stock portfolios, hold negative views of people of color and immigrants or think police are getting a bum rap.   But if they die from the coronavirus, they are deprived of the opportunity to enjoy their assets and prejudices.  Thomas Jefferson knew what he was doing when he put “life” before “liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”  The latter two are irrelevant if you’ve breathed your last breath.

Then there are women among whom Biden holds a 56-35 lead according to a June 2020 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.  In an earlier Hill-HarrisX survey, 62 percent of women voters said they were unlikely to vote for Trump.  There are a lot of reasons for this.  For example, younger, college educated women resent Trump’s efforts to deprive them of birth control under their employer’s insurance plan if the boss believes Jesus would have disapproved.  But that was also true in 2016.  What has changed?  Suburban white women are increasingly abandoning the Trump bandwagon.  Listen to the reasons reported in a June article in the Los Angeles Times.

I do like Trump, but I think he should set a better example.

If he’s not taking issues like this (pandemic) seriously, what else is he not taking seriously.

Honestly, I think he needs to stay off Twitter.

Sound familiar?  Despite enlightened views on gender roles when it comes to raising a family, women are still on the front line.  And their attitude toward Trump reflects that.  They want role models for their children.  And their concerns about Trump mirror their anxiety about their own offspring.  Why don’t they take school more seriously?  Are they spending too much time on social media?  They have to deal with their own adolescents on a daily basis.  The last thing they need is one more child to worry about even if he is president of the United States.

Nor do they appreciate someone who does not even pretend to be a partner when it comes to raising a family.  Imagine how you would feel if your husband told a national radio audience in 2005 he never changed his children’s diapers.  (Source: Opie and Anthony)

There’s a lot of women out there that demand that the husband act like the wife and you know there’s a lot of husbands that listen to that… I’m really like a great father but certain things you do and certain things you don’t. It’s just not for me.

I have had the opportunity to be in the same room with every U.S. president from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama.   Among those six chief executives, one stands out when it comes to the empathy quotient, Bill Clinton.  Yes, his nickname “Slick Willy” is well deserved.  He cheated on his wife and was guilty of workplace sexual harassment.  He perjured himself in a deposition.  And he may even be a pedophile based on his association with Jeffrey Epstein.

But when he said, “I feel your pain,” you believed him.  Not because he was smart or articulate even though he might have been the smartest person in the room.  After all, there was a reason he was called on to be the “explainer-in-chief” to make the case for Obama’s re-election at the 2012 Democratic convention.  It was because, when you stepped into his office in Little Rock to discuss rural development, he complimented you on your tie.  Or when you needed to get his attention at a National Governors Association meeting after he became president, he turned around and called you by name.

You believed him because he made you feel like “YOU were the ONLY ONE in the room.”  The winner in 2020 must exhibit that same quality.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP