One of the reasons I started this blog was to force myself to think about things I did not understand.  At the top of my current list is the question, “Why would the working, middle class expect an alleged billionaire (remember net worth is equal to assets MINUS liabilities) who has stiffed workers and small businesses to represent their best interests?”  Then I realized I should have also been asking a similar question about the previous administration.  “Why would the working, middle class look to a Harvard educated, community organizer who never spent a day on a shop floor to protect their salaries, job security and retirement pensions?”

The above is not meant to disparage the career choices of either Barack Obama or Donald Trump.  But as past president and current occupant of the White House, these individuals have to constantly balance multiple interests.  If I want someone to represent my economic future, I want my own hired gun.  I want someone like Samuel Gompers (1850-1924), founder of the American  Federation of Labor (AFL), who when asked during contract negotiations what his workers wanted, he simply answered, “More!”

Keeping in mind correlation does not equal causation, it is hard not to believe there is not some linkage between the decline in union membership and dissatisfaction among middle class Americans they are being left behind in an otherwise growing economy.  In 1954, 34.8 percent of wage and salary workers belonged to unions (Current Population Survey).  By 2010, the last available census numbers, the percent of union membership dropped to 11.3 percent.

While both major political parties continually promise to improve the lot of the middle class, neither has done the one thing that would have really made a difference, protecting the institution which truly represents much of middle-class America.  Instead, for the past 40 years, Republicans have demonized unions as a scapegoat for the failure of trickle down economics. But let’s be brutally honest.  The Democrats stood by and watched. Instead of protecting the true representatives of the working class, Democratic candidates were more interested in promoting government policies which they hoped would translate into votes.

The graphic below, created by NPR, shows the percentage of current union membership by state.  One can’t help but notice many of the states which tipped the electoral college in Trump’s favor have the lowest level of union representation.

And Republican governor and legislators in several mid-western states continue to do all they can to erode the power of both private and public sector unions.

Just imagine if any political party had been equally aggressive about protecting union representation as the Democrats have been on protecting voting rights.  Or if law suits had been filed as often to challenge threats to workers organizing as the Republicans have to undercut the Affordable Care Act.  Strong unions, not government nor corporations, should be leading the charge on economic issues important to the middle class.  Government’s role and corporate America’s moral obligation should only be to ensure they have a meaningful seat at the table.

I still believe James Carville was right when he reminded then presidential candidate Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Perhaps the opportunity for bringing Americans together again is not identity politics, but economy politics.  A movement where factory workers who are told their jobs will disappear without major concessions while executive salaries skyrocket, women who demand equal pay for equal work, hamburger flippers who deserve a living wage and undocumented workers who, in fear of deportation, accept sub-minimum wage compensation come together and support each other.  Just as Samuel Gompers founded the AFL to promote harmony among various craft unions to minimize jurisdictional conflicts, leadership by the workers, of the workers and for the workers is sorely needed.

Too bad the slogan “Workers Unite” is already taken.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Is it possible, a major segment of the American electorate has contracted Alzheimer’s disease? Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the private sector created another 161,000 jobs in October.  And the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9 percent. Equally important, average wages rose 2.8 percent compared to October 2015, the highest annual increase in more than seven years.  October was the 73rd straight month of job growth in the U.S., a new record, with an accumulated creation of 15.5 million private sector jobs.

However, in the “bizarro world” in which Donald Trump lives, the numbers were a “disaster.”  Compared to what?  Take a look at the difference between the day Barack Obama took office and current data.

• In January 2009, the unemployment rate was 7.8 percent on its way to 10.0 percent by mid-year.  Today it is 4.9 percent.  In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney promised he would bring the unemployment down to 6.0 by the end of his first term.  How is the economy a disaster when the current administration bested that prediction by 1.1 percent?
• On February 25, 2012, then presidential candidate Newt Gingrich declared, “I am the $2.50 gas president, Obama is the $10.00 gas guy.”  As Donald Trump would say, “WRONG!”  Yesterday, the average national gas price reported by AAA was $2.18.
• On inauguration day 2009 the Dow Jones industrial average clocked in at 7,949.09.  Yesterday, it closed at 17,888.28.
• In January 2009, the consumer confidence index was 37.4 (with 100 in 1985 as the base).  Today it is 98.8.
• In January 2009, the median value of a new home had fallen from $245,000 in mid-2008 to $208,000.  Today, the median value of a new home is $313,000.
• In response to the 2008 financial collapse, the growth in GDP for 2009 was -2.8 percent.  For the third quarter of 2016, it was 2.9 percent.

The recovery from eight years of trickle down economics (tax cuts for the wealthy) and deregulation has been steady but, sadly, all Americans have not seen the benefits.  However, it requires a total memory lapse to believe economic policies which contributed to the 2008-09 recession will cure it.

Unfortunately, that’s not the only things Americans seem to have forgotten.  More recently they have shelved their visceral response to many of the things the Republican nominee has said and done during the course of the campaign.  The common denominator appears to be instances when Trump is unscripted.  Here are a few examples and the how voters reacted to them.

• On June 16, 2016, Breitbart News (managed by now Trump campaign chairman Steve Bannon) reported 50 percent of those surveyed in a Morning Consult survey thought Trump’s comments about Judge Curiel (a Mexican-American judge born in Indiana) were racist.  Another 19 percent said his comments were unacceptable.
• A Gallup poll following both national party conventions found 44 percent of Americans viewed the Democratic party as more favorable after Philadelphia while only 35 percent of Americans had a more positive view of the Republican party after Cleveland.
• On August 3, 2016, the Daily Standard reported 69 percent of those surveyed in a Fox News poll believed Donald Trump response to the Khan family, whose son died in Iraq, was “out of bounds.”
• CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers had Clinton winning the first presidential debate 62 to 27 percent.
• CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers had Clinton winning the second presidential debate (the town hall debate) 57 to 34 percent.
• CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers had Clinton winning the third presidential debate 52 percent to 39 percent.

Immediately following many of these events, members of his own party recognized Trump’s actions were outside the political norm or even standards of decency.  In reference to Trump’s attack on Judge Curiel, House Speaker Paul Ryan referred to the candidate’s comments as the definition of racism.  This week he announced he had voted for the party’s nominee.  Following release of the Access Hollywood tape, Utah Congressman Jason Chaffetz said:

My wife, Julie and I, we have a 15-year-old daughter. Do you think I can look her in the eye and tell her that I endorsed Donald Trump for president when he acts like this and his apology? That was no apology, that was an apology for getting caught.

On October 26, Chaffetz announced he too would be voting for Trump.  [NOTE: Chaffetz chairs the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and has promised to continue the investigations into Secretary Clinton’s use of private email.  Ironically, ABC News reported in March 2015, Congressman Chaffetz’ official business card lists a GMAIL.COM address rather than his official HOUSE.GOV address.  Instead of “lock her up,” maybe the Republican rallying cry should be, “Hyp, Hyp, Hypocracy!”]

And the list goes on.  Florida Senator Marco Rubio seems to have forgotten he once characterized Trump as a “con-man.”  Texas Senator Ted Cruz has demonstrated a similar lapse of memory about how disgusted he was when Trump vilified his wife or referenced a story in the National Enquirer about how Cruz’s father was involved in JFK’s assassination.

I would be more forgiving if Trump supporters were more consistent in their memory lapses.  However, the veracity of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis is suspect when they cannot recall anything that happened in the last 18 months, but have no problem with the most minute details of every Clinton conspiracy theory, even those from 30 years ago.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

SPOILER ALERT: At the end of the movie Catch Me If You Can, Leonardo di Caprio’s character Frank Abagnale, Jr., a master forger, ends up working for the FBI.  Why?  Because he knew the counterfeit game better than most of the other criminals the FBI pursued.

I’ve been thinking about this movie a lot lately.  Last August, organizers conducted DEF CON 24, the oldest and largest hackers convention in the U.S.  On their FAQ page, there is the following question, “Do criminals go to DEF CON?”  The response?

Yes. They also go to high school, college, work in your workplace, and the government. There are also lawyers, law enforcement agents, civil libertarians, cryptographers, and hackers in attendance. Ssshhh. Don’t tell anyone.

Guess who else goes to DEF CON.  Every major technology company and the U.S. military.  Many are sponsors and host lavish parties where they wine and dine the best of the best among the attendees. Why?  They are recruiting new hires. Surprised?  You shouldn’t be.  As Michael Carleone tells a confidante in Godfather II,  “My father taught me many things. He taught me — keep your friends close but your enemies closer.”

As I read excerpts from the WikiLeaks alledged transcripts of Hillary Clinton’s speeches, I was reminded of Frank Abagnale and Michael Corleone.  Below is an excerpt of a speech at a Goldman Sachs symposium, which has come under attacks from both the far right and far left.

 There’s nothing magic about regulations, too much is bad, too little is bad. How do you get to the golden key, how do we figure out what works? And the people that know the industry better than anybody are the people who work in the industry.  [Goldman Sachs AIMS Alternative Investments Symposium, 10/24/13]

As I did in my last post, I again have to draw on personal experience.  In 1996, I was named lead staff for the National Governors Association to recommend the rules and regulations to implement the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Safety Act (HMTUSA).  The trucking industry had petitioned Congress to preempt state regulation of the movement of hazardous materials because the administration burden of keeping track of and complying with 48 different standards within the mainland states was overly burdensome.

And they were right.  I needed no more proof than seeing the multiple loose-leaf binders of state and local regulations submitted as evidence by a lobbyist for the American Trucking Associations.  In lieu of preempting state authority, HMTUSA charged the states with developing a uniform set of standards.

The staff was assisted by a steering committee consisting of representatives from several state executive and legislative branches.  In addition, representatives of the trucking industry and environmental community were invited to all of the working sessions.  Unexpectedly, many of the staff recommendations which led to the final agreement among the states began as private conversations with the trucking industry.  For example, the uniform safety standards approved by the steering committee were more stringent than those imposed by the federal government and the overwhelming majority of states prior to the Act’s passage.  This would not have happened without communications with the trucking representatives outside of regular committee meetings. As Secretary Clinton suggests above, the “golden key” to finding common ground came partially from those who knew their industry best.

There was one other industry concession which sealed the deal.  The trucking companies acknowledged the individual states had the right to set the penalties for violation of the uniform standards when a vehicle traveled on their respective highways.  In other words, leaders in the trucking industry recognized their role and responsibility to ensure the safe transportation of dangerous substances. Furthermore, they expected their drivers and companies would be punished for violations and assessed damages.

So, there is value in having representatives of the banking industry at the table to address some of the legitimate issues which have been raised about Dodd-Frank.  IF AND ONLY IF, they agree they are bound to the new standards and are liable personally and organizationally for criminal and civil violations.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP