Some of you may remember the graphic to the right.  It first appeared in 2010 during Israel’s response to Hamas’ indiscriminate launching of rockets from Gaza into Israeli towns and villages.  The message was obvious.  Israel used its military to protect its children, while Hamas hid its weapons and ammunition in schools and hospitals.  The latter’s primary purpose was to lure the Israel forces into harming or even killing innocent women and children in order to score points in the court of public opinion.  Hamas spokespersons denied the Israeli accusations related to human shields throughout the four-year “Gaza War.”  However, in September 2014, Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas official, admitted that rocket launchers were positioned close to civilian residences and educational facilities, often within a couple of hundred meters.  (Source: The Daily Mail, September 12, 2014)

The term “human shield” immediately came to mind as I watched Donald Trump’s tirade following the news the FBI had raided the offices, home and hotel room of his consigliere Michael Cohen.   The remarks were made prior to what was presented as a meeting of the national security team to discuss an American response to the Syrian chemical weapons attack.

I want to show you two pictures.  The first is of Trump meeting yesterday with his “war cabinet” in the actual Cabinet Room in the West Wing of the White House.  (NOTE:  This image is a thumbnail of copyrighted photo offered by the European Pressphoto Agency.)  No official White House photos were available.  And I think I know why.  I have personally attended meetings in that room on more than one occasion and I can tell you two things.  First, you may notice it is not what one would call a secured space.  Second, there are no monitors or other audio/visual equipment.    When discussing options for a military response against any nation, the inputs generally consist of two important elements:  classified intelligence and maps/charts of potential targets.

The picture to the left is a September 10, 2014 meeting of President Barack Obama’s national security team in the situation room in the basement of the White House.  First, notice the array of monitors on the walls.  Second, this room meets Department of Defense standards, referred to as a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF, pronounced “skiff”) to guard against electronic surveillance and external transmission of sensitive security and military information.  (Source:  scifglobal.com)

The only reason for holding a national security meeting in the Cabinet Room is to allow photo ops and hold a”press gaggle,” an informal briefing by the president or his representatives.  If you were watching cable news yesterday afternoon, you may have noticed Trumps remarks were not carried live.  Instead, there was a disclaimer on the screen which read, “Moments Ago.”  While comments made during a “gaggle” are on the record, no independent videography is allowed.  In other words, the only video record comes from the White House.

Which brings me back to the issue of human shields.  Donald Trump has a right to express his opinion about actions taken by a Republican FBI director, a Republican deputy Attorney general, a Republican district attorney representing the southern district of New York and a federal judge appointed by Trump himself.  But if he was the “straight-shooting, stand-up guy” he claims to be, he should have addressed the nation from his desk in the Oval Office or from a podium in the East Room.  Even Richard Nixon had the courage to claim (wrongly I might add), “I am not a crook.” during a nationally televised press conference on November 17, 1973.  You do not hold the Joint Chiefs of Staff hostage for the purposes of making it look as though they share your opinion.

But it doesn’t end with yesterday’s dog and pony show.  Trump has not held a formal press conference where he alone answered journalists’ questions in 418 days.  On every other occasion, Trump has had a foreign leader share the podium.  Last week it was the heads of state of the Balkan nations.  Today it was the Emir of Oman.  It’s one thing to ask people who you pay to be your human shields.  It’s another to expect the same of house guests.

Do not be surprised if HBO soon announces a spin-off of its popular drama “Orange is the New Black.” The new series?  “Orange is the New Yellow.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The title of today’s post comes from a regular segment on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews.  The objective is for each panelist to share an insight that may not have made the news or is an unexpected harbinger of things to come.  Although Conor Lamb, the apparent winner of yesterday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district did not appear on MSNBC during the campaign, he ran a political race based on that very principle.

Lamb knew he would be wasting his time regurgitating Donald Trump’s mountain of lies, corruption and gross incompetence.  Much as rumors of IPOs and mergers are baked into the stock market indices days or weeks before they actually occur, individual voters had already made up their mind about Trump.  It was baked into their predisposition weeks or months before the campaign officially began.  They wanted candidates to tell them something they did not already know.  And that’s exactly what Lamb did.

At each campaign stop and at each door on which he knocked, Lamb sympathized with the angst shared among his future working class constituents.  Then he told them something they may not have heard.  He talked about the share of the Republican tax cut which has already been used for corporate stock buy-backs compared to the more publicized worker bonuses which have paled in comparison.  He explained how the short-term benefits of the tax cuts might be offset by future cuts in Social Security and Medicare.  He explained the deficit increase associated with tax cuts would preclude investments in infrastructure; so badly needed in the district.  In other words, he talked about what should have been the centerpiece of the GOP argument for electing another Republican in the 18th, not the titular head of the GOP.

And it worked.  How do we know?  Early in the campaign, pro-Saccone ads touted the middle-class benefits of the tax act.  But it did not make a difference in the polling.  Therefore, the closing, last gasp Republican argument returned to the same dog-whistle, cultural issues which did not work for gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie in Virginia.

But Lamb didn’t stop there.  He explained how the recently imposed tariffs represented a zero sum game for voters.  Some would win but others would lose.  And the voters heard him.  Based on exit polling, only four percent of election day voters said the tariffs impacted how they cast their ballots.  While it may have made the victory more narrow, it did not change enough votes to carry the day.  And if it didn’t play in SW Pennsylvania which was tailored for the message, it’s unlikely to play as well in swing districts.

He told voters he was personally opposed to abortion but respected the fact Roe v. Wade was the law of the land.  He told voters his positions were not incompatible.  He talked about how Congress needed to reassert itself as a equal branch of government and stop worrying about what any president wants or says. He maintained that was impossible with the current House leadership of both parties.  The message, “We don’t need ideologues in the House telling us how to vote, we need leadership who helps us better represent our constituents.”

No campaign dollars were spent on anti-Trump ads.  We saw the same phenomenon in Virginia last November and in the Alabama special election to replace Jeff Sessions.  In the majority of voters’ minds, 2018 is already a referendum on the Trump administration.  ORANGE is the new BASE!  Victory comes not from parroting the national dialogue but by offering something that matters to undecided voters.  And they are most likely to respond to reasoned policy positions which focus on issues of local importance.  To paraphrase the John Houseman character in the 1970s Smith Barney ad campaign, “We win elections the old-fashioned way, we EARN them by respecting voters and talking policy, not politics.”

POSTSCRIPT

Lamb’s narrow victory was due largely to the Democratic ground game.  The best evidence of this supposition was the absentee balloting in Washington County, PA.  Saccone received a majority of the election day votes in Washington County by a margin of 53-46 percent.  Yet, Lamb received 62 more early votes cast than his opponent. Getting out the absentee vote takes a sustained ground game.

Some analysts have attributed Saccone’s lack of organization to the fact the 18th district had been either relatively or totally uncontested for 15 years.  The takeaway?  There is more than one path to retaking the House of Representatives in November.  While the low hanging fruit appears to be Republican districts which Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, there is potential to win relatively safe districts where the Republican incumbent is not used to a fight and a good counter-puncher like Lamb with a grassroots organization may be just the ticket Democrats need to deliver a few more surprises on November 6th.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Breaking News, Saturday Morning, March 3, 2018:

• Canada “flabbergasted’ by Trump’s tariff  proposal (Washington Post)
• Trump’s Tariffs Stoke Fears That Trade War Will “Kill” U.S. Jobs (New York Times)
• Trump risks more than a trade war by targeting China (CNN.com)
• EU Threatens Iconic U.S. Brands After Trump Opens Door to Trade War (Bloomberg.com)

Stick with me on this one folks.  The logical path for this argument is non-linear.  The reason I share these headlines is to show the true danger of actual FAKE NEWS is when the supposed legitimate press responds to it.

Raise your hand if you really think Donald J. Trump is ever going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  I know.  You saw him say it last Thursday  during a televised Trump infomercial with a roomful of industry executives.  Remember!  This is the same Donald Trump who said ON TV he would sign a clean DACA bill.  This is the same Donald Trump who told a bi-partisan group of legislators ON TV he thought Dianne Feinstein’s assault weapons ban should be included in a comprehensive gun safety proposal and the government need not worry about due process before confiscating the guns of those who were a potential danger to themselves and others.  That is, until he had an UNTELEVISED dinner with NRA representatives the same evening.  (Too bad none of the White House press corps asked the white-liar-in chief Sarah Huckabee Sanders why THAT “listening session” was held behind closed doors.)

Yes, the tariff ANNOUNCEMENT was REAL, but I am willing to bet the farm (which by the way will be worth much less if there ARE tariffs and all the importers of U.S. grown grain retaliate) the IMPOSITION of tariffs is FAKE.  How do I know this?  Because this morning I Googled the major news outlets in Pittsburgh, PA and Wheeling, WV to see if they shared the national media’s concern about the consequences of a tariff-induced trade war.  The front pages of the newspapers and web-sites were devoid of any news or commentary about the potential negative impacts of proposed tariffs.

Why, you ask, did I choose these two markets?  Because they are in the closest vicinity to Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District which as you are probably aware is holding a special election on March 13 to fill the seat vacated by Tim Murphy.  “Retired” congressman Murphy is one in a growing parade of fallen evangelical, family values Republicans who resigned when it was reported this pro-life zealot urged a woman with whom he had an extra-marital affair to get an abortion.  Instead of referring to Representatives as being members of the “lower chamber” maybe it’s time we call that wing of the U.S. Capitol the “Glass House.”

A few facts about the PA 18th.  Some have been widely reported such as the fact Trump carried the district by 19 points in 2016.  And, despite the injection of millions of dollars to bolster the campaign of Republican Rick Saccone, the most recent polls suggest the contest is within the margin of error.  Fortunately, trying to label his opponent Connor Lamb as a Pelosi Democrat and misrepresenting Lamb’s position on policy issues (Lamb is decidedly more conservative than your garden variety Democrat) has fallen on deaf ears.  To date, none of these tactics have reversed the closeness of the contest.

But wait, there is one thing on which the press has not focused with one major exception, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  In a Friday article titled, “Trump tariff may also protect GOP from competition in southwestern Pennsylvania,” Chris Potter writes:

Metals manufacturing has deep economic and historical ties in southwestern Pennsylvania, including swaths of the 18th District itself. The AFL-CIO estimates that the district contains some 17,000 voters who are either steelworkers or related to them. Unions are key to Democratic hopes of winning an upset in the district, which backed Mr. Trump by roughly 20 percent in 2016.

Potter goes on to explain why unions may make the difference in the balloting and Saccone’s potential problem with this scenario.

As a state legislator, Mr. Saccone has often been at odds with organized labor on issues like paying a “prevailing wage” on infrastructure projects, and union leaders, at least, are bent on defeating him.

If you doubt the political influence of steelworkers in the Keystone State, just listened to Democratic Senator Bob Casey.  “I commend the president for announcing his intent to take action to protect our steelworkers from countries, like China, that cheat on trade.”

So how do you ameliorate Saccone’s anti-union history.  Not surprisingly, Trump has scheduled a trip to southwestern Pennsylvania prior to the election.  You can already hear his spiel.  “I alone am standing up for you.  Obama did nothing.  You saw me on TV.  You saw me take on China when no one else would.  All of my advisors told me not to do this.  They care about their port folios.  I care about the threatened steelworkers here in Pennsylvania.  And so does Rick Saccone.”

Forget some economists say a trade war with the attendant increase in goods and services would entirely wipe out the consumer buying power promised under the 2017 tax cut legislation.  Forget the 400+ point drop in the Dow Index following the tariff announcement which translated into a half trillion dollar decrease in wealth in four hours.  Forget the lost jobs which would result from a global trade war.  Forget, American protectionism will drive our traditional trading partners to seek new alliances with countries like China or even Russia.  But, as I’ve suggested, these worse case scenarios will not happen.  After March 13th, Trump will announce the threat of tariffs brought the world in line (just like he claims the threat of imposing Congressional sanctions for election meddling has deterred future Russian interference).  Trump will take his ball and go home.  And the media will once again be looking around and wondering what just happened.

So what is the best case scenario?  More and more 2016 voters realize their 21st-century Huey Long is willing to risk their jobs and savings to avoid personal embarrassment if the Pennsylvania 18th District flips from red to blue.  It will be interesting to see if the same voters who forgive Trump on character issues “because I’m doing better economically” have a change of heart when the latter is no longer true.

In an iconic 1996 Madison Avenue advertising campaign, a major cosmetics company flooded the airwaves and magazines with the following, “Promise her anything but give her Arpège!”  Mr. Fifth Avenue is hoping the same sales pitch works a week from Tuesday.  “Promise them anything…”  But there is no Arpège.  When they realize they were stiffed, it will be too late.  Oh, they’ll smell the aroma, but it won’t be perfume.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP