Breaking News, Saturday Morning, March 3, 2018:

• Canada “flabbergasted’ by Trump’s tariff  proposal (Washington Post)
• Trump’s Tariffs Stoke Fears That Trade War Will “Kill” U.S. Jobs (New York Times)
• Trump risks more than a trade war by targeting China (CNN.com)
• EU Threatens Iconic U.S. Brands After Trump Opens Door to Trade War (Bloomberg.com)

Stick with me on this one folks.  The logical path for this argument is non-linear.  The reason I share these headlines is to show the true danger of actual FAKE NEWS is when the supposed legitimate press responds to it.

Raise your hand if you really think Donald J. Trump is ever going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  I know.  You saw him say it last Thursday  during a televised Trump infomercial with a roomful of industry executives.  Remember!  This is the same Donald Trump who said ON TV he would sign a clean DACA bill.  This is the same Donald Trump who told a bi-partisan group of legislators ON TV he thought Dianne Feinstein’s assault weapons ban should be included in a comprehensive gun safety proposal and the government need not worry about due process before confiscating the guns of those who were a potential danger to themselves and others.  That is, until he had an UNTELEVISED dinner with NRA representatives the same evening.  (Too bad none of the White House press corps asked the white-liar-in chief Sarah Huckabee Sanders why THAT “listening session” was held behind closed doors.)

Yes, the tariff ANNOUNCEMENT was REAL, but I am willing to bet the farm (which by the way will be worth much less if there ARE tariffs and all the importers of U.S. grown grain retaliate) the IMPOSITION of tariffs is FAKE.  How do I know this?  Because this morning I Googled the major news outlets in Pittsburgh, PA and Wheeling, WV to see if they shared the national media’s concern about the consequences of a tariff-induced trade war.  The front pages of the newspapers and web-sites were devoid of any news or commentary about the potential negative impacts of proposed tariffs.

Why, you ask, did I choose these two markets?  Because they are in the closest vicinity to Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District which as you are probably aware is holding a special election on March 13 to fill the seat vacated by Tim Murphy.  “Retired” congressman Murphy is one in a growing parade of fallen evangelical, family values Republicans who resigned when it was reported this pro-life zealot urged a woman with whom he had an extra-marital affair to get an abortion.  Instead of referring to Representatives as being members of the “lower chamber” maybe it’s time we call that wing of the U.S. Capitol the “Glass House.”

A few facts about the PA 18th.  Some have been widely reported such as the fact Trump carried the district by 19 points in 2016.  And, despite the injection of millions of dollars to bolster the campaign of Republican Rick Saccone, the most recent polls suggest the contest is within the margin of error.  Fortunately, trying to label his opponent Connor Lamb as a Pelosi Democrat and misrepresenting Lamb’s position on policy issues (Lamb is decidedly more conservative than your garden variety Democrat) has fallen on deaf ears.  To date, none of these tactics have reversed the closeness of the contest.

But wait, there is one thing on which the press has not focused with one major exception, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  In a Friday article titled, “Trump tariff may also protect GOP from competition in southwestern Pennsylvania,” Chris Potter writes:

Metals manufacturing has deep economic and historical ties in southwestern Pennsylvania, including swaths of the 18th District itself. The AFL-CIO estimates that the district contains some 17,000 voters who are either steelworkers or related to them. Unions are key to Democratic hopes of winning an upset in the district, which backed Mr. Trump by roughly 20 percent in 2016.

Potter goes on to explain why unions may make the difference in the balloting and Saccone’s potential problem with this scenario.

As a state legislator, Mr. Saccone has often been at odds with organized labor on issues like paying a “prevailing wage” on infrastructure projects, and union leaders, at least, are bent on defeating him.

If you doubt the political influence of steelworkers in the Keystone State, just listened to Democratic Senator Bob Casey.  “I commend the president for announcing his intent to take action to protect our steelworkers from countries, like China, that cheat on trade.”

So how do you ameliorate Saccone’s anti-union history.  Not surprisingly, Trump has scheduled a trip to southwestern Pennsylvania prior to the election.  You can already hear his spiel.  “I alone am standing up for you.  Obama did nothing.  You saw me on TV.  You saw me take on China when no one else would.  All of my advisors told me not to do this.  They care about their port folios.  I care about the threatened steelworkers here in Pennsylvania.  And so does Rick Saccone.”

Forget some economists say a trade war with the attendant increase in goods and services would entirely wipe out the consumer buying power promised under the 2017 tax cut legislation.  Forget the 400+ point drop in the Dow Index following the tariff announcement which translated into a half trillion dollar decrease in wealth in four hours.  Forget the lost jobs which would result from a global trade war.  Forget, American protectionism will drive our traditional trading partners to seek new alliances with countries like China or even Russia.  But, as I’ve suggested, these worse case scenarios will not happen.  After March 13th, Trump will announce the threat of tariffs brought the world in line (just like he claims the threat of imposing Congressional sanctions for election meddling has deterred future Russian interference).  Trump will take his ball and go home.  And the media will once again be looking around and wondering what just happened.

So what is the best case scenario?  More and more 2016 voters realize their 21st-century Huey Long is willing to risk their jobs and savings to avoid personal embarrassment if the Pennsylvania 18th District flips from red to blue.  It will be interesting to see if the same voters who forgive Trump on character issues “because I’m doing better economically” have a change of heart when the latter is no longer true.

In an iconic 1996 Madison Avenue advertising campaign, a major cosmetics company flooded the airwaves and magazines with the following, “Promise her anything but give her Arpège!”  Mr. Fifth Avenue is hoping the same sales pitch works a week from Tuesday.  “Promise them anything…”  But there is no Arpège.  When they realize they were stiffed, it will be too late.  Oh, they’ll smell the aroma, but it won’t be perfume.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

When the history of the “Resistance” is written, Friday, February 16, 2018 will be seen as a red letter day.  The indictment of 13 Russians and the organizations they created to intervene in the 2016 presidential election was important for a number of reasons, most of which were adequately reported on cable news throughout the afternoon and evening.

• In contrast to the slipshod effort by Republican members of Congress to discredit Robert Mueller, including the Nunes memorandum, the professional and meticulous manner in which the Special Counsel and his team developed the case against the Russians put to bed any argument this was a “witch hunt.”
• Rod Rosenstein’s decision to announce the indictments sent a strong message that he will not be any part of shutting down the Mueller investigation, and equally important, any move by Trump to remove Rosenstein would represent a clear case of obstruction of justice.
• National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster’s comments at the Munich Security Conference that “the evidence (of Russian meddling in the 2016 election) is now incontrovertible and in the public domain, whereas in the past it was difficult to attribute,” speaks volumes.  While the information may have only recently become publicly available, is there any doubt the same information from which Mueller gleaned evidence for the indictment was also available to Donald Trump’s national security team?  They said as much at a Congressional briefing this week.  McMaster, therefore, has confirmed that Trump is guilty of violating his oath to protect the nation from foreign enemies.  It no longer matters if the campaign colluded with the Russians.  Trump will forever be known as the first occupant of the oval office to consciously elect to do nothing while the United States continues to be under attack by a foreign adversary.
• The detail about the offenses which led to the indictments was a clear message to anyone who is yet to be interviewed by Mueller or his team that the Counsel’s office already knows who did what, how and when.  Perjury is not an option.
• Nothing Robert Mueller does is unintentional.  The grand jury voted on the indictments in early February.  Yet Mueller asked the court to seal the indictments until yesterday.  One has to believe he wanted to send a message to those who, over the past two weeks, used the Nunes memo to discredit the investigation.  Was Mueller playing them?  “Here is how easily I can make you look like a fool.  You might want to think twice before trying that again.”

Not a bad day’s work, but there is one message which the mainstream media missed.  Maybe because it was intended for an audience of one, Donald Trump.  In paragraph #98 of the indictment, under the title “Forfeiture Allegation,” Mueller notifies the indicted Russians, “Upon conviction of the offenses charged, defendants shall forfeit to the United States any property, real or personal, which constitutes or is derived from proceeds traceable to the offenses of conviction.”

Remember, the investigation is not just about possible collusion during the 2016 campaign.  Mueller’s office is examining any illegal activity which might involve Russian interaction, including but not limited to Russian financing of Trump properties.   After all, Junior already confessed at a 2008 real estate seminar Russia was an “important source” of financing for the family business.  Imagine if Mueller includes the forfeiture clause in indictments against Trump and the Trump organization. Could Trump Tower, Mar-a-Lago and other properties soon belong to the U.S. treasury?

Here’s an idea.  The General Services Administration is looking for a new location for the FBI headquarters,  currently housed in the J. Edgar Hoover Building.  How about the Trump International Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue?  Of course, the perfect irony would be to rename it the Robert S. Mueller III Building.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Pundits on both sides are having a field day with the release of Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury.  Many, including MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, claim it adds to what he and others had been hearing from Trump’s inner circle and Republicans on Capitol Hill. Trump allies have attacked the book as “fiction” or “garbage,” but most have not challenged specific excerpts.  (Perhaps they believe Wolff  actually does have them on tape whether he does or not.)

No one has enjoyed Wolff’s throwing gasoline on an already dysfunctional West Wing more than I have, but there is one thing I wish was not part of the conversation, attempts to assess Donald Trump’s mental stability.  Last night, there finally emerged a voice of reason.  Dr. Allen Francis, professor emeritus of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University Medical College appeared on The Beat with Ari Melber (MSNBC) and urged viewers not to confuse loutish behavior and unenlightened tweets with mental illness.

This was not the first time Dr. Francis raised this point.  In a February 14, 2017 letter to the editor of the New York Times, Francis wrote:

Bad behavior is rarely a sign of mental illness, and the mentally ill behave badly only rarely. Psychiatric name-calling is a misguided way of countering Mr. Trump’s attack on democracy. He can, and should, be appropriately denounced for his ignorance, incompetence, impulsivity and pursuit of dictatorial powers.

In other words, not only is labeling Trump “mentally unstable” inaccurate, it masks the fact that the conman-in-chief is a despicable human being by choice, not due to any biological dysfunction.  He is not losing it.  He is the same Trump he has always been.

So let’s get off the mental instability bandwagon and focus on the damage he is doing to the the nation, the Constitution, the institutions which are the foundation of a democratic society and the rule of law.

POSTSCRIPT: NOW A WARNING?

Some of you may recognize the title of this postscript as a quote by Madeline Ashton (Meryl Streep) from the film Death Becomes Her.  Last night on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Michael Wolff related a conversation he had with his publisher about the size of the first-run of Fire and Fury.  Wolff thought the book was “old news” and would have limited readership.  In his mind, the only contribution he made was to pull together in one place a more detailed and sourced chronicle of what has dribbled out from major news outlets over the past year.  And what every member of the White House press corps already knew was worse than the tidbits which had made the papers and cable news.

If this is true, then Wolff’s book is as much an indictment of the press as it is of the Trump administration.  If, in fact, White House correspondents were aware members of Trump’s own inner circle believed he was unfit for the job of president of the United States, why did they wait for Wolff to fire the first volley and then take the heat?  In the Colbert interview, Wolff responded, “I’m the only person who was willing to say this because I’m the only one who doesn’t have to go back.”  In contrast, members of the White House press corps feared losing future access to Trump and senior administration officials.

Let me get this straight.  You know the center of national power is dysfunctional and you’re more worried about your job than the national interest.  The fourth estate may not be, as Trump calls it, “the enemy of the people,” but failing to pursue stories which are in the national interest doesn’t make it our ally either.  Again, I ask, where are the next Katherine Graham and Ben Bradlee, who will risk not just their jobs but everything to ensure the people stay informed?

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP