Category Archives: Media

Tell Me Something I Don’t Know

 

Image resultThe title of today’s post comes from a regular segment on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews.  The objective is for each panelist to share an insight that may not have made the news or is an unexpected harbinger of things to come.  Although Conor Lamb, the apparent winner of yesterday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district did not appear on MSNBC during the campaign, he ran a political race based on that very principle.

Lamb knew he would be wasting his time regurgitating Donald Trump’s mountain of lies, corruption and gross incompetence.  Much as rumors of IPOs and mergers are baked into the stock market indices days or weeks before they actually occur, individual voters had already made up their mind about Trump.  It was baked into their predisposition weeks or months before the campaign officially began.  They wanted candidates to tell them something they did not already know.  And that’s exactly what Lamb did.

At each campaign stop and at each door on which he knocked, Lamb sympathized with the angst shared among his future working class constituents.  Then he told them something they may not have heard.  He talked about the share of the Republican tax cut which has already been used for corporate stock buy-backs compared to the more publicized worker bonuses which have paled in comparison.  He explained how the short-term benefits of the tax cuts might be offset by future cuts in Social Security and Medicare.  He explained the deficit increase associated with tax cuts would preclude investments in infrastructure; so badly needed in the district.  In other words, he talked about what should have been the centerpiece of the GOP argument for electing another Republican in the 18th, not the titular head of the GOP.

And it worked.  How do we know?  Early in the campaign, pro-Saccone ads touted the middle-class benefits of the tax act.  But it did not make a difference in the polling.  Therefore, the closing, last gasp Republican argument returned to the same dog-whistle, cultural issues which did not work for gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie in Virginia.

But Lamb didn’t stop there.  He explained how the recently imposed tariffs represented a zero sum game for voters.  Some would win but others would lose.  And the voters heard him.  Based on exit polling, only four percent of election day voters said the tariffs impacted how they cast their ballots.  While it may have made the victory more narrow, it did not change enough votes to carry the day.  And if it didn’t play in SW Pennsylvania which was tailored for the message, it’s unlikely to play as well in swing districts.

He told voters he was personally opposed to abortion but respected the fact Roe v. Wade was the law of the land.  He told voters his positions were not incompatible.  He talked about how Congress needed to reassert itself as a equal branch of government and stop worrying about what any president wants or says. He maintained that was impossible with the current House leadership of both parties.  The message, “We don’t need ideologues in the House telling us how to vote, we need leadership who helps us better represent our constituents.”

No campaign dollars were spent on anti-Trump ads.  We saw the same phenomenon in Virginia last November and in the Alabama special election to replace Jeff Sessions.  In the majority of voters’ minds, 2018 is already a referendum on the Trump administration.  ORANGE is the new BASE!  Victory comes not from parroting the national dialogue but by offering something that matters to undecided voters.  And they are most likely to respond to reasoned policy positions which focus on issues of local importance.  To paraphrase the John Houseman character in the 1970s Smith Barney ad campaign, “We win elections the old-fashioned way, we EARN them by respecting voters and talking policy, not politics.”

POSTSCRIPT

Lamb’s narrow victory was due largely to the Democratic ground game.  The best evidence of this supposition was the absentee balloting in Washington County, PA.  Saccone received a majority of the election day votes in Washington County by a margin of 53-46 percent.  Yet, Lamb received 62 more early votes cast than his opponent. Getting out the absentee vote takes a sustained ground game.

Some analysts have attributed Saccone’s lack of organization to the fact the 18th district had been either relatively or totally uncontested for 15 years.  The takeaway?  There is more than one path to retaking the House of Representatives in November.  While the low hanging fruit appears to be Republican districts which Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, there is potential to win relatively safe districts where the Republican incumbent is not used to a fight and a good counter-puncher like Lamb with a grassroots organization may be just the ticket Democrats need to deliver a few more surprises on November 6th.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

STEELing an Election

Breaking News, Saturday Morning, March 3, 2018:

  • Canada “flabbergasted’ by Trump’s tariff  proposal (Washington Post)
  • Trump’s Tariffs Stoke Fears That Trade War Will “Kill” U.S. Jobs (New York Times)
  • Trump risks more than a trade war by targeting China (CNN.com)
  • EU Threatens Iconic U.S. Brands After Trump Opens Door to Trade War (Bloomberg.com)

Stick with me on this one folks.  The logical path for this argument is non-linear.  The reason I share these headlines is to show the true danger of actual FAKE NEWS is when the supposed legitimate press responds to it.

Raise your hand if you really think Donald J. Trump is ever going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  I know.  You saw him say it last Thursday  during a televised Trump infomercial with a roomful of industry executives.  Remember!  This is the same Donald Trump who said ON TV he would sign a clean DACA bill.  This is the same Donald Trump who told a bi-partisan group of legislators ON TV he thought Dianne Feinstein’s assault weapons ban should be included in a comprehensive gun safety proposal and the government need not worry about due process before confiscating the guns of those who were a potential danger to themselves and others.  That is, until he had an UNTELEVISED dinner with NRA representatives the same evening.  (Too bad none of the White House press corps asked the white-liar-in chief Sarah Huckabee Sanders why THAT “listening session” was held behind closed doors.)

Yes, the tariff ANNOUNCEMENT was REAL, but I am willing to bet the farm (which by the way will be worth much less if there ARE tariffs and all the importers of U.S. grown grain retaliate) the IMPOSITION of tariffs is FAKE.  How do I know this?  Because this morning I Googled the major news outlets in Pittsburgh, PA and Wheeling, WV to see if they shared the national media’s concern about the consequences of a tariff-induced trade war.  The front pages of the newspapers and web-sites were devoid of any news or commentary about the potential negative impacts of proposed tariffs.

WhImage result for pennsylvania 18th congressional districty, you ask, did I choose these two markets?  Because they are in the closest vicinity to Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District which as you are probably aware is holding a special election on March 13 to fill the seat vacated by Tim Murphy.  “Retired” congressman Murphy is one in a growing parade of fallen evangelical, family values Republicans who resigned when it was reported this pro-life zealot urged a woman with whom he had an extra-marital affair to get an abortion.  Instead of referring to Representatives as being members of the “lower chamber” maybe it’s time we call that wing of the U.S. Capitol the “Glass House.”

A few facts about the PA 18th.  Some have been widely reported such as the fact Trump carried the district by 19 points in 2016.  And, despite the injection of millions of dollars to bolster the campaign of Republican Rick Saccone, the most recent polls suggest the contest is within the margin of error.  Fortunately, trying to label his opponent Connor Lamb as a Pelosi Democrat and misrepresenting Lamb’s position on policy issues (Lamb is decidedly more conservative than your garden variety Democrat) has fallen on deaf ears.  To date, none of these tactics have reversed the closeness of the contest.

But wait, there is one thing on which the press has not focused with one major exception, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  In a Friday article titled, “Trump tariff may also protect GOP from competition in southwestern Pennsylvania,” Chris Potter writes:

Metals manufacturing has deep economic and historical ties in southwestern Pennsylvania, including swaths of the 18th District itself. The AFL-CIO estimates that the district contains some 17,000 voters who are either steelworkers or related to them. Unions are key to Democratic hopes of winning an upset in the district, which backed Mr. Trump by roughly 20 percent in 2016.

Potter goes on to explain why unions may make the difference in the balloting and Saccone’s potential problem with this scenario.

As a state legislator, Mr. Saccone has often been at odds with organized labor on issues like paying a “prevailing wage” on infrastructure projects, and union leaders, at least, are bent on defeating him.

If you doubt the political influence of steelworkers in the Keystone State, just listened to Democratic Senator Bob Casey.  “I commend the president for announcing his intent to take action to protect our steelworkers from countries, like China, that cheat on trade.”

So how do you ameliorate Saccone’s anti-union history.  Not surprisingly, Trump has scheduled a trip to southwestern Pennsylvania prior to the election.  You can already hear his spiel.  “I alone am standing up for you.  Obama did nothing.  You saw me on TV.  You saw me take on China when no one else would.  All of my advisors told me not to do this.  They care about their port folios.  I care about the threatened steelworkers here in Pennsylvania.  And so does Rick Saccone.”

Forget some economists say a trade war with the attendant increase in goods and services would entirely wipe out the consumer buying power promised under the 2017 tax cut legislation.  Forget the 400+ point drop in the Dow Index following the tariff announcement which translated into a half trillion dollar decrease in wealth in four hours.  Forget the lost jobs which would result from a global trade war.  Forget, American protectionism will drive our traditional trading partners to seek new alliances with countries like China or even Russia.  But, as I’ve suggested, these worse case scenarios will not happen.  After March 13th, Trump will announce the threat of tariffs brought the world in line (just like he claims the threat of imposing Congressional sanctions for election meddling has deterred future Russian interference).  Trump will take his ball and go home.  And the media will once again be looking around and wondering what just happened.

So what is the best case scenario?  More and more 2016 voters realize their 21st-century Huey Long is willing to risk their jobs and savings to avoid personal embarrassment if the Pennsylvania 18th District flips from red to blue.  It will be interesting to see if the same voters who forgive Trump on character issues “because I’m doing better economically” have a change of heart when the latter is no longer true.

Image result for arpegeIn an iconic 1996 Madison Avenue advertising campaign, a major cosmetics company flooded the airwaves and magazines with the following, “Promise her anything but give her Arpège!”  Mr. Fifth Avenue is hoping the same sales pitch works a week from Tuesday.  “Promise them anything…”  But there is no Arpège.  When they realize they were stiffed, it will be too late.  Oh, they’ll smell the aroma, but it won’t be perfume.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

What They Missed

When the history of the “Resistance” is written, Friday, February 16, 2018 will be seen as a red letter day.  The indictment of 13 Russians and the organizations they created to intervene in the 2016 presidential election was important for a number of reasons, most of which were adequately reported on cable news throughout the afternoon and evening.

  • In contrast to the slipshod effort by Republican members of Congress to discredit Robert Mueller, including the Nunes memorandum, the professional and meticulous manner in which the Special Counsel and his team developed the case against the Russians put to bed any argument this was a “witch hunt.”
  • Rod Rosenstein’s decision to announce the indictments sent a strong message that he will not be any part of shutting down the Mueller investigation, and equally important, any move by Trump to remove Rosenstein would represent a clear case of obstruction of justice.
  • National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster’s comments at the Munich Security Conference that “the evidence (of Russian meddling in the 2016 election) is now incontrovertible and in the public domain, whereas in the past it was difficult to attribute,” speaks volumes.  While the information may have only recently become publicly available, is there any doubt the same information from which Mueller gleaned evidence for the indictment was also available to Donald Trump’s national security team?  They said as much at a Congressional briefing this week.  McMaster, therefore, has confirmed that Trump is guilty of violating his oath to protect the nation from foreign enemies.  It no longer matters if the campaign colluded with the Russians.  Trump will forever be known as the first occupant of the oval office to consciously elect to do nothing while the United States continues to be under attack by a foreign adversary.
  • The detail about the offenses which led to the indictments was a clear message to anyone who is yet to be interviewed by Mueller or his team that the Counsel’s office already knows who did what, how and when.  Perjury is not an option.
  • Nothing Robert Mueller does is unintentional.  The grand jury voted on the indictments in early February.  Yet Mueller asked the court to seal the indictments until yesterday.  One has to believe he wanted to send a message to those who, over the past two weeks, used the Nunes memo to discredit the investigation.  Was Mueller playing them?  “Here is how easily I can make you look like a fool.  You might want to think twice before trying that again.”

Not a bad day’s work, but there is one message which the mainstream media missed.  Maybe because it was intended for an audience of one, Donald Trump.  In paragraph #98 of the indictment, under the title “Forfeiture Allegation,” Mueller notifies the indicted Russians, “Upon conviction of the offenses charged, defendants shall forfeit to the United States any property, real or personal, which constitutes or is derived from proceeds traceable to the offenses of conviction.”

Remember, the investigation is not just about possible collusion during the 2016 campaign.  Mueller’s office is examining any illegal activity which might involve Russian interaction, including but not limited to Russian financing of Trump properties.   After all, Junior already confessed at a 2008 real estate seminar Russia was an “important source” of financing for the family business.  Imagine if Mueller includes the forfeiture clause in indictments against Trump and the Trump organization. Could Trump Tower, Mar-a-Lago and other properties soon belong to the U.S. treasury?

Here’s an idea.  The General Services Administration is looking for a new location for the FBI headquarters,  currently housed in the J. Edgar Hoover Building.  How about the Trump International Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue?  Of course, the perfect irony would be to rename it the Robert S. Mueller III Building.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Fee-FISA-Fo-Fum

 

Magicians must love the mainstream media.  Magic depends on misdirection.  “LOOK HERE!  Because we don’t want you to watch what we are doing OVER THERE!”  If and when there is a second sequel to the film Now You See Me, the “Four Horsemen” will be played by Donald Trump, Devin Nunes, Paul Ryan and Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Their latest act is the release of a memo which suggests the FBI and Department of Justice tricked the judges charged under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to issue a warrant to listen into conversations of Carter Page, a one-time foreign policy advisor to the Trump campaign.  And right on cue, most media outlooks assumed the purpose of their performance was to discredit individuals associated with the investigation into Russian meddling into the 2016 elections.  All afternoon, the question on cable news and in digital editions of virtually every newspaper was, “Will Donald Trump use the memo to justify firing Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Robert Mueller as special counsel?  And by extension, name a new deputy attorney general who will shut down the investigation?”

Yet everyone admits there is nothing in the memo which incriminates either Rosenstein or Mueller.  The target of the memo is the FISA warrant itself.  C’mon folks.  All of the cable news networks have very qualified legal correspondents with years of experience as prosecutors and/or defense lawyers.  What do you do when the opposition has a “smoking gun?”  You attempt to discredit the evidence in hopes the jury will never see it.

This was not the White House’s first attempt to cast a shadow over the entire FISA process.  On January 11, 2018, Trump tweeted:

House votes on controversial FISA ACT today. This is the act that may have been used, with the help of the discredited and phony Dossier, to so badly surveil and abuse the Trump Campaign by the previous administration and others.

I will admit I have no hard evidence for what I am about to suggest except what has been reported about how Trump spends his so-called “executive time.”  CNN reported on January 17, 2018, “executive time” is spent largely talking on the phone with advisors, lawmakers and staff.  Axios reporter Jonathan Swan described “executive time” as a rebranding of the mornings Trump spends in the residence (rather than the Oval Office) watching TV, tweeting and making phone calls.

One thing we have learned from presidential historians, the occupant of the White House does not change patterns of behavior on inauguration day.  They tend to conduct business in the same manner in which they behaved in their former lives.  Therefore, “executive time” was most likely something Trump did in his private life and as a candidate.  Which leads to only one conclusion.

There are two types of people in Washington this morning.  Those claiming the original FISA warrant and the three renewals were politically motivated and, this is key, have NOT seen the underlying documentation.  This includes Devin Nunes.  And those who suggest the memo is inaccurate and (drum role) actually have the security clearance to have read that documentation.

Remember, the impetus for the warrant was partially evidence from U.S. and foreign intelligence sources that Americans were intercepted talking to Russians who were under surveillance.  The FISA warrant allowed direct surveillance of Carter Page, including conversations with other Americans.  Individuals who have seen the warrant and possibly some of the products of the subsequent surveillance, know who is has been on the other end of Page’s conversations.  One can only guess who those individuals might be.  But if any are either members of the Trump campaign or Donald, himself, as his defense attorney, I would do whatever I could to ensure that evidence never sees the light of day.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Why Insult the Mentally Ill?

 

Pundits on both sides are having a field day with the release of Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury.  Many, including MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, claim it adds to what he and others had been hearing from Trump’s inner circle and Republicans on Capitol Hill. Trump allies have attacked the book as “fiction” or “garbage,” but most have not challenged specific excerpts.  (Perhaps they believe Wolff  actually does have them on tape whether he does or not.)

No one has enjoyed Wolff’s throwing gasoline on an already dysfunctional West Wing more than I have, but there is one thing I wish was not part of the conversation, attempts to assess Donald Trump’s mental stability.  Last night, there finally emerged a voice of reason.  Dr. Allen Francis, professor emeritus of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University Medical College appeared on The Beat with Ari Melber (MSNBC) and urged viewers not to confuse loutish behavior and unenlightened tweets with mental illness.

This was not the first time Dr. Francis raised this point.  In a February 14, 2017 letter to the editor of the New York Times, Francis wrote:

Bad behavior is rarely a sign of mental illness, and the mentally ill behave badly only rarely. Psychiatric name-calling is a misguided way of countering Mr. Trump’s attack on democracy. He can, and should, be appropriately denounced for his ignorance, incompetence, impulsivity and pursuit of dictatorial powers.

In other words, not only is labeling Trump “mentally unstable” inaccurate, it masks the fact that the conman-in-chief is a despicable human being by choice, not due to any biological dysfunction.  He is not losing it.  He is the same Trump he has always been.

So let’s get off the mental instability bandwagon and focus on the damage he is doing to the the nation, the Constitution, the institutions which are the foundation of a democratic society and the rule of law.

POSTSCRIPT: NOW A WARNING?

Some of you may recognize the title of this postscript as a quote by Madeline Ashton (Meryl Streep) from the film Death Becomes Her.  Last night on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Michael Wolff related a conversation he had with his publisher about the size of the first-run of Fire and Fury.  Wolff thought the book was “old news” and would have limited readership.  In his mind, the only contribution he made was to pull together in one place a more detailed and sourced chronicle of what has dribbled out from major news outlets over the past year.  And what every member of the White House press corps already knew was worse than the tidbits which had made the papers and cable news.

If this is true, then Wolff’s book is as much an indictment of the press as it is of the Trump administration.  If, in fact, White House correspondents were aware members of Trump’s own inner circle believed he was unfit for the job of president of the United States, why did they wait for Wolff to fire the first volley and then take the heat?  In the Colbert interview, Wolff responded, “I’m the only person who was willing to say this because I’m the only one who doesn’t have to go back.”  In contrast, members of the White House press corps feared losing future access to Trump and senior administration officials.

Let me get this straight.  You know the center of national power is dysfunctional and you’re more worried about your job than the national interest.  The fourth estate may not be, as Trump calls it, “the enemy of the people,” but failing to pursue stories which are in the national interest doesn’t make it our ally either.  Again, I ask, where are the next Katherine Graham and Ben Bradlee, who will risk not just their jobs but everything to ensure the people stay informed?

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP