[Today’s post is an open letter in response to Americans who have indicated they would never vote for Joe Biden based on his support of Israel following October 7, 2023.]

I know you are angry.  So am I.  So are most Israelis and Palestinians.  It takes a total lack of humanity to witness the bodies of innocent men, women and children killed by Hamas on October 7, 2023 or from Israel’s response and not be angry.  But that anger must not keep us from some inconvenient truths.  Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition government have the blood of Israelis on their hands by failing to advance the Oslo Accords.  And Yahya Sinwar and Hamas have the blood of Palestinians on their hands for promoting the destruction of Israel and the Jewish people.

This experience again proves what diplomats and generals always tell us.  “It is easy to start a war.  It is much harder to end one.” And the key to a successful outcome is often having not only a war plan, but having a plan for day one after the shooting ceases.  That hard lifting depends who is conducting the peace.  The Israelis and Palestinians have to decide if they believe the individuals–Netanyahu and Sinwar–who have proven they can be masters of war have the will to be masters of peace.

We Americans also have a role.  Our allies in the Middle East–Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and most importantly Saudi Arabia–have made it clear the United States is an essential partner in achieving that peace.  But only if we can be an honest broker.  And I understand many of you believe, due to American support for the Israeli military, U.S. policy favors Israel.  It is hard not to feel that way when, perhaps, members of your family or friends have died from American manufactured munitions.

No one can guarantee these 75 years of bloodshed will ever end.  But if we want to give peace one more chance, consider the following.  The United States will have a major role.  And the nature of that engagement depends on who sits in the Oval Office next year.  You say you will never support Joe Biden because of his support for Israeli genocide.  Yes, Joe Biden went to Israel and hugged Netanyahu immediately after October 7.  Yes, Joe Biden proposed more military aid to Israel.  But neither have the goal of Palestinian genocide.

If that were the case, what would explain Joe Biden being a consistent supporter of the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution as Obama’s vice-president, as a private citizen and now as the leader of the free world.  This is no last-minute conversion in response to Hamas’ terrorism.  In July 2023, months before the attack, Biden met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem and reaffirmed his belief the two-state solution was the best path to peace between Israelis and Palestinians.  In January, the U.S. abstained on a U.N. resolution to increase the flow of humanitarian aid despite the fact the resolution made no mention of Hamas’ attack on October 7 as the U.S. requested.  A position that opened Biden to criticism from many of his own party.  He has continuously criticized the Netanyahu government for expansion of West Bank settlements and for not taking a more targeted approach in the fight against Hamas militants. And in the vein of Harry Truman’s being the first world leader to recognize Israel on May 14, 1948, the same day Israel declared its independence, Biden has indicated he is considering the same for a Palestinian state created in compliance with the Oslo criteria.

Now consider the alternative.  Despite protests that more Jewish settlements on the West Bank were a violation of international law, Donald Trump supported Israel’s territorial claims over the West Bank.  The Netanyahu government rewarded this change in U.S. policy by naming one of the settlements Ramat Trump (Trump Heights) and putting a statue of a sabbath menorah and eagle honoring Trump at the entrance.  To further exacerbate the situation, Trump symbolically moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, although most diplomatic functions remain in Tel Aviv.  Trump’s vision for the Palestinians is a economic protectorate as laid out during a White House press conference with Netanyahu.  The fact Palestinians were not invited to participate in the announcement tells you all you need to know about the proposal.  Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the status of Gaza and the West Bank in the proposal as “a faux state.”

And there is no sign things would be different in a second Trump presidency.  Just this week we saw how Trump sold out U.S. interests in Europe for Vladimir Putin’s friendship.  Do Palestinians think the situation will be any different between Trump and Netanyahu?  Listen to Trump’s response to Israel’s execution of the war as reported by Brett Samuels of The Hill three days after the Hamas attack.

Former President Trump suggested in a new interview that the war between Israel and Hamas will just have to “play out” despite concerns about rising civilian casualties.

“So you have a war that’s going on, and you’re probably going to have to let this play out. You’re probably going to have to let it play out because a lot of people are dying,” Trump told Univision in an interview that aired Thursday night.

Please do not tell me you agree with these sentiments from a man who thinks people dying is a reason to let the death and destruction continue.  Peacefully protest U.S. policy toward Israel if you want.  But also keep in mind two undisputed facts.  First, even if you believe Israel is engaged in genocide with U.S. support, you make no friends promoting your own brand of genocide against Israel or the Jewish people.  Two, only one of the two candidates for president has been a life-long supporter of a Palestinian state as the only path to a lasting peace and has pushed Netanyahu to come to that same conclusion.

Shalom/Salam.
Dr. ESP

One of the great advantages of having worked at a major U.S. foundation focused on entrepreneurship, teaching in a business school and being a member of the senior staff at the National Governors Association was the opportunity to make friends with individuals outside my usual sphere of amigos and acquaintances.  Despite the political and ideological differences, I held many of them in high esteem long after our professional association expired.  Which makes it all that much harder to understand their unwillingness to acknowledge the existential threat posed to American and global democracy by Donald Trump.

It was easier to understand in 2016, before Trump ever sat behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.  Trump promised a lot and delivered on two items of importance to this audience:  lower tax rates and business deregulation.  On January 20, 2017, concerns about Trump’s authoritarian goals were speculative.  Once he took office, I assumed the wishful thinkers who thought being president would temper Trump’s worst inclinations would have a change of heart.  I was wrong.  Many ignored the warning signs–Charlottesville, Helsinki, Ukraine, his Lafayette Park response to Black Lives Matter, quack Covid treatments and calls for his political opponents to be jailed two weeks before the 2020 election.  Not to mention the 30,000+ lies.  Fortunately, just enough of them voted for Joe Biden or sat out the election to ensure Trump’s defeat by more than seven million votes, enough to carry six of the seven battleground states.

One would think, based on Trump’s post-election and out-of-office behavior, the choice this election cycle would be easier.  But anecdotal feedback from my conservative friends and national reporting from gatherings such as Davos 2024, suggest many of those who saw Trump as a threat in 2020 are more concerned about Biden four years later.  Even when one of their concerns proves to be unfounded, they shift to a new one.  Conversative economists predicted a post-Covid recession was unavoidable.  WRONG!  NATO was weaker than ever.  WRONG!  Biden was too progressive, even socialist.  WRONG!  It is hard to make that case when 14 million new jobs were created in the first three years of Biden’s administration, the unemployment rate is at a 50 year low, major corporations are besting Wall Street earnings estimates for the most recent reporting quarter and the Dow and S&P averages are at all time highs.  

Time to find a new reason not to vote for Biden, and of course. they did.  Here is how one friend explained it.  “I would feel better about Biden if Kamala was not the VP.”  This implies two things.  One, Biden will either die or become incapacitated before the end of a second term though there is no evidence that is the case.  Two, Harris is too much of a risk to trust as president.  My friend and others who share this opinion might want to reconsider based on their previous willingness to take an even greater chance in the past.  I am, of course, referring to 2008 when, I will bet the farm, many of them voted for John McCain.

Before running for president, McCain had been diagnosed with melanoma four times, the last coming in 2000.  Although there is no direct connection between these diagnoses and the glioblastoma tumor which eventually took his live, the melanoma removed in 2000 was Stage IIa compared to the most serious Stage IV.  Articles in recent medical journals suggest the survival rate 10 years after diagnosis is 65 percent.  In other words, if McCain had taken office in 2009, there was a 35 percent chance he would not survive the first two years of his first term.  Neither Democrats nor the press made this a major issue during the campaign.  Of course, Republicans had no concerns about their nominee’s health.

For argument’s sake, knowing McCain’s odds, you would think those who fear a Harris secession would feel the same way about his choice of a running mate.  Who did he choose?  Oh, Sarah Palin.  The governor of a state with less than 700,000 population at the time, no D.C. or foreign policy experience and unable to answer the questions, “Where do you get your news?  What magazines do you read?”  Compare that to Harris who has served as attorney general of the most populous state in the country, a U.S. Senator and a member of the Judiciary Committee, and has been able, as vice-president, to learn the job from inside-out.  Plus, she has Joe Biden with all his knowledge and experience as a mentor.  Palin’s top advisor when she ran for Alaska governor was John Bitney, described by The New Yorker as someone who “…is from Wasilla, Palin’s home town, and has known her since junior high school, where the both played in the band.” (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!)

Instead of exuding hypocrisy, maybe it’s time for the anti-Harris crowd to look for the next reason to sit out an election which has a decent, pro-democracy, rule of law old man (yes, he knows he is old) who has guided the country through what even the most conservative economists say is the “unprecedented” success of stemming inflation without a recession. Or a pro-Russian, wannabe dictator and insurrectionist who has already been found liable of sexual assault, defamation (twice) and business fraud.  And when it comes to his legal woes, as Donald Trump, Jr.’s fiancée Kimberly Guilfoyle reminded us at the 2020 Republican National Convention, “The best is yet to come!”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

If you ever questioned why the state of Florida has turned deep red after voting twice for Barack Obama, look no further than the state and local Democratic Committees.  Yesterday, consistent with Occam’s razor–all things being equal, the simplest answer is usually correct–I reached the following conclusion.

At 8:30 am EST, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January
• The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent
• Average hourly earnings year over year rose by 4.5 percent, higher than the annual inflation rate of 3.5 percent, signaling a real increase in household buying power.

CNBC analyst Rick Santelli described the report this way.  “The first jobs report jobs, job jobs of ’24 is out and it is… WHOPPER!”

Former Trump economic advisor and FOX business analyst Larry Kudlow piled on, “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession. So was the entire forecasting fraternity.”  After Joe Biden’s comments on the good economic news, Kudlow added, “If I were he, I would be bragging about it too.”

And earlier this week, Donald Trump was so impressed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P being in record territory, he tried to take credit for it. In an all caps post on UN-Truth Social, Trump declared. as usual with no evidence, “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET.  BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.”  For the record, on the last day before Biden was elected president in 2020, the S&P stood at 3,270.  On yesterday’s positive economic news, the S&P rose another 52.42 to close at 4,959.

Yet, on the very day when literally everyone was rejoicing over the unprecedented post-pandemic economic recovery, my congressman Aaron Bean emailed a newsletter in which he claimed, “Biden’s economy has wreaked havoc on American families. In the fight to restore our nation’s prosperity, I’m proud to support the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act..”   His assessment is hard to reconcile with the fact the bill would not have passed without more Democratic than Republican votes and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index hit a two year high in January.

What was our local Democratic Committee’s response to Aaron Bean’s disinformation campaign?  Crickets!!  And they wonder why so many Democrats do not contribute to the Committee or why there is a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters.  Or they are unable to recruit quality candidates to run in local elections.  For me, it’s now personal.  Last week I sent the Nassau County Democratic Party chair a copy of my “If I Did It” post.  I suggested there was a case to be made that Aaron had done very little for district residents and offered to do anything I could to work with them and anyone who would challenge Aaron for the 4th district seat in the House of Representatives.  I’m still waiting for a response.  Even a thank you, but no thank you would suggest they at least bothered to read it.

In 1992, Bill Clinton told us, “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.”  In 2008, Barack Obama rallies opened with songs like Steve Wonder’s “Fired Up! Ready to Go” or will.i.am’s “Yes We Can!”  In 2020, Joe Biden often came on stage to his late son Beau’s favorite, Cold Play’s “Sky Full of Stars.”  Sadly, in 2024, the Florida Democratic Party appears to be marching to the tune of “Sounds of Silence.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Tagline:  Confessions of a Reluctant Congressional Candidate

Every morning I wake up wondering if any Democrat is going to run for Congress in my home district (Florida 4th).  So far, according to BALLOTPEDIA.ORG, there are three announced candidates:

• Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean
• Republican Challenger Robert Alvero
• Unaffiliated Write-in Candidate Todd Schaefer

BALLOTPEDIA asks each candidate to answer a series of questions including, “What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?”  Alvero, who appears to have relied too heavily on SpellCheck,  responded:

I perceive that (sic) Unites (sic) States greatest challenge as a nation over the next decade is going to be unite the country in one common cause and keeping the young generation focused on getting the country back up to the (sic) former glory.

Schaefer provides an equally generic but more populous response.

We are at a very divisive time in our country. Both parties are trying to convince us that our neighbor is our enemy to distract from the core rot of the system. If we don’t wake up and realize that we have more in common than they’d have us argue about, more people will be disenfranchised from participating in the system consolidating even more power at the top. The world is watching as this is happening. We’re already losing our influence on the world stage and US foreign policy will lead to our isolation if not worse.

Every announced candidate, including Bean, is eager to tell you what is wrong with America but has offered no solutions.  As the late, great Baltimore Sun journalist and essayist H. L. Mencken once wrote:

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

Maybe it is time for someone to practice “impractical politics.”  That is why my day begins thinking about what that might look like.  The following imaginary announcement of my entry into the race for Representative from the 4th District of Florida presents what I believe is a constructive and compelling argument.

Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Congress from the 4th District of Florida.  To be clear, I am not running against the incumbent Aaron Bean.  The Bean family has a long record of service and commitment to our community.  Aaron is a good and decent person who I consider a friend.  I simply believe he is in the wrong job and that the citizens of the 4th district deserve better.

Like many of you, I get Aaron’s newsletters and press releases.  And every time I end up with the same conclusion.  I know what Aaron is against.  But what is he for and what has he done about it.  This was most clear from his end of year message when he listed his accomplishments from his first year in office.  60,000 responses to constituent letters.  432 constituent meetings and town halls.  Telephone Town Halls with more than 40,000 constituents.  And through constituent services, he helped taxpayers recover over a million dollars in benefits, something every Congressman is expected to do.

You immediately realize what is NOT on his list of accomplishments.  A single piece of enacted legislation.  According to Article I, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution that is the main purpose of Congress.  All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives.

Think about that.  Aaron Bean is one of 435 individuals empowered to do the Nation’s business.  To solve problems and create opportunities for the American people.  He and his Republican colleagues have been quick to identify problems and blame the opposition, but have nothing to show for solving them.  Let me give you a few examples.

How many of you are concerned about what Aaron refers to as unprotected borders on his website?  Guess what?  So am I.  And a bipartisan coalition of Senators has proposed the strongest response to that concern.  And what has been Aaron’s response.  Rather than jump on this opportunity, he has sided with Speaker Mike Johnson to block House consideration of the Senate bill because they would prefer to make the border a campaign issue for Donald Trump rather than address the problem.

How many of you are concerned about the safety of your children when they go to school or a movie or a concert or to their church, synagogue or mosque?  So am I.  Aaron wants you to believe mental health, not guns, is the issue.  Let’s assume he is correct.  What has he done to ensure that a mentally ill individual who cannot pass a background check to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer can immediately go on the internet or find a private seller who will make that transaction.  I know the overwhelming majority of 4th District residents, including gun owners and NRA members, support universal background checks.  I will vote to make that the law.

How many of you think gas prices, groceries and other consumer goods are too high?  So do I.  And what has Aaron and his GOP colleagues done to solve this.  Nothing.  Instead they claim they will drill, drill, drill even though energy production last year was the highest in U.S. history.  You know what else is the highest in U.S. history.  Oil company profits.  And yet Congress continues to subsidize the oil and gas industry to the tune of $440 billion.  You know what has not increased.  Health care.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of health care in the U.S. increased by just 0.5 percent in 2023.  And what is the response from the GOP House.  Repeal the Affordable Care Act.  As your congressman I will ensure the future of ACA and challenge subsidies to industries that do not need them.

How many of you are concerned that a pregnant woman has to bleed out in a hospital parking lot until she is close enough to dying before her doctor will risk his license or prosecution to save her?  I am too.  And what is Aaron’s response.  On his website, he decries, and I quote, “federal overreach by a government attempting to tell us that they know what is best.”  But that seems not to apply to a woman’s reproductive health. Or a 10 year child who has been raped by her stepfather.  I will work with members of both parties to ensure that health decisions remain between a woman, her family and her physician, not a state legislature or court.

How many of you are concerned about a loss of respect for law and order?  Again, so I am.  Aaron Bean says he is on his website.  Yet, on January 21, he endorsed Donald Trump for President.  A man who says he is willing to suspend the U.S. Constitution if necessary.  A man who suggested the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should be executed because he did his job, easing concerns by his Chinese counterpart on January 6.  A man found liable by a jury of his peers for sexual assault and defamation.  A man who admits he withheld classified documents and waved them in front of individuals who have no security clearance.  A man who thinks the President of the United States should have complete immunity from prosecution even when he “crosses the line.”  And cross the line he has.  Ignoring the 60 state and federal courts which told him he lost the 2020 election.  Pressuring state election officials to falsify vote counts.  Supporting a plot to substitute fake electors for those duly elected by the voters in six states.  Inciting a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol during the constitution process of counting the electoral votes.  And most egregious, watching and re-watching his supporters attack and injure over 150 law enforcement officers on January 6.

How many of you are concerned about a decline in global respect for the United States?  I wish I knew where my Congressman stands on this issue but he seldom talks about it.  Does he believe after two years of holding off and weakening Vladimir Putin’s army, we should abandon Ukraine?  Does he think Israel can ever have peace while Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister?  Is he concerned that China will see America’s inaction on these fronts as a license to take over Taiwan?  Does he believe the outcomes in each of these regions has no effect on national security?  There are no easy answers, but silence is not an option.  I look forward to discussing America’s role in a complex geopolitical environment and seeking solutions which make the world a more peaceful place for all people of good will.

During this campaign and as your congressman, I too will answer your letters,  I will hold town halls and when needed I will advocate for each of you when you do not get the government benefits you are entitled to.  But more importantly,  I will press for solutions through legislation and oversight to the issues that affect every one of the 800,000 residents of the 4th District.  Why?  Because Article I, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution and the voters will have given me the legislative power to do exactly that.

Thank you.

Why then, rather than say “If I Did It,” JUST DO IT.  Because no one should jump into a campaign unless he or she is prepared to fully commit to the effort.  You owe that to your supporters, especially donors, and to yourself. I am not sure I can make that promise.

I am more than willing to defer to a younger, more energetic Democratic candidate who I hope would pick up on these themes, yet no one to date has stepped forward.  And when one does, I will be there to help in any way I can.  You know where to find me.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

“You talkin’ to me?” 

That is how I felt this morning when Joe Scarborough suggested absolutely nobody believes the Biden campaign relishes a general election contest with Nikki Haley.  

The Biden campaign is trying to pretend she is not there.  They’re saying the general election’s begun.  Pretend last night didn’t happen.  Forget what Nikki Haley is saying.  Why?  Well, it’s very obvious.  They want to run against the crazy guy.  Who do you think, who on this planet, other than extreme MAGAs think, believes Joe Biden wants to run against [Haley]?  Nobody!  Nobody!

I do, Joe.  You may be right about the Biden campaign.  But here is why Joe Biden should see a race against Nikki Haley as an opportunity, not only to win re-election, but also to make true conservatives and mainstream Republicans realize that their party needs to be reconstructed from the ground up.

Let’s start with a few facts.

1. One of the reasons, if not the most important, for Trump’s third run for president is his many legal problems.  His hope is that a Trump appointed attorney general will make all of the federal cases go away and make life miserable for Letitia James and Fani Willis.
2. As long as he is a candidate for president, Trump can make the case (though untrue) that he is being persecuted by a weaponized Biden Justice Department.  All he needs is one juror in each of the criminal cases to believe him.
3. To make that argument he must continue to run even if he does not win the Republican nomination.
4. Entrance polls during the Iowa caucuses suggest that half of Republicans who cast ballots on January 15 identify as MAGA.  The number was closer to 25 percent last night in New Hampshire according to the exit polls.
5. In his victory tirade last night, Trump predicted Haley would lose to Biden in the general election.

What should this tell us?  Trump will not take a Nikki Haley nomination lying down.  If he felt humiliated losing to Joe Biden, imagine the outrage from failing to secure the nomination of a party he supposedly controls.  If Haley does win in November, the Trump myth (“Only I can do it.) suffers one more embarrassing moment.

There are three ways to make sure she does not become president.  Launch a write-in campaign.  (“If Sleepy Joe Biden can do it, certainly I can.”) Run as an independent.  Tell his voters they should stay home (a la the Georgia Senate run-offs in 2020).  In a previous blog, I suggested approximately 17 percent of GOP voters are “Forever Trump” loyalists and will do whatever he asks them to do.  That is the percent of Trump’s 2020 vote over his 2016 total.  In other words, these are new Republicans Trump is largely responsible for bringing into the GOP tent.

The media and many Democratic pundits spend a lot of time focusing on the impact of third party candidates on Biden’s chances of winning.  All of the major polling companies have created hypotheticals in which the options include Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornell West and Jill Stein.  There have also been a few polls based on the speculation Joe Manchin will run on the No Labels ticket.  You know what NO ONE has tested.  A three-way race with Biden, Haley and Trump. If my 17 percent estimate in anywhere close to correct, Biden could win even the least competitive state with 40 percent of the vote. 

Based on Biden’s 2020 percentage in each state, he would have a better than even chance to carry Alaska, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.  In which case, Biden would win 449 electoral votes compared to a total of 89 for Trump or Haley.  That would be a hard reality to spin, but of course Trump will declare Biden and Haley colluded to defeat him.  The question is whether the Republicans who still reside on Earth One will finally board the escape pods to avoid another MAGA Starship implosion.

It also makes life worse for every other Republican running for office who will face the following dilemma.  If both Trump and Haley are on the ballot, a GOP candidate for House or Senate will be forced to make a choice.  And the only impact that will have will be to alienate supporters of one of the two “conservative” opponents.  It gets worse if Trump tells his loyalists to stay home.  Consider the following data provided by BALLOTPEDIA.COM.

• In 2022, 85 congressional races (ten Senate and 75 House) were decided by ten percentage points or fewer.
• Of those, Republicans won four Senate seats (WI, NC, OH, AK) and 30 house seats.
• A defection of just 6.21 percent of GOP voters would have flipped three of the Senate races.

So, here is my question for Joe Scarborough.

Who do you think, who on this planet, believes a man who has already tried to delegitimize the Constitution, the electoral process, the rule of law and our system of justice would hesitate to delegitimize the Republican Party to serve his own interests?  Nobody!  Nobody!

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP