Random observations with two days to go.

When the Choir Doesn’t Pay Attention

Last Tuesday I had a conversation with a strong Harris supporter who raised two concerns about the election outcome.  This 100 percent Harris voter was distressed that the Harris campaign had run an ineffective campaign.  Then said Harris had spent all her time running against Trump without telling us what she’s for.  My response?  Have you watched any of the rallies?  Have you looked at the analysis of her program versus Trump’s by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget?  Do you think these Zoom calls with Republicans for Harris, evangelicals for Harris, etc. which draw 40,000 to 70,000 participants happen by accident?

Yesterday, I was at a local festival and ran into a friend who is an environmental activist.  I assumed she was voting for both Harris and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democrat running for Senate against Rick Scott.  She did not know who Mucarsel-Powell was.  Someone is not doing their job, but that is not going to be resolved between now and 7:00pm on Tuesday.

So, it is up to each of us to fill this gap in the next two days.  The next time someone tells you watching another Harris rally is preaching to the choir, the reply should be, “I know you think you have heard it before, but were you listening?”  And never assume the outreach includes down-ballot Democratic candidates.

The Light in a Dark Red County

When you live in a deep red jurisdiction such as Nassau County, Florida, odds are pretty good at some time you will buy products from or be served by someone who is a MAGA supporter.  It is what it is.  What I do not understand is why any business owners or employees would post political messages in their facilities or on their commercial vehicles.  In downtown Fernandina Beach there are stores with Trump propaganda. My auto mechanic posted a “Make America Great Again” at their checkout counter.  I need not tell you how often I now patronize these establishments.

Which is why, on Friday morning, I was so pleasantly surprised when an employee of a local home equipment company pulled into our driveway which is surrounded by Harris and down-ballot Democratic candidate signs.  After we introduced ourselves, he asked, “Has anyone stolen your  yard signs?”  When I said no, he told me that he and his wife have been the victims twice of someone removing their signs.  When we agreed he would come back on November 8 to finish the job, he made the point that hopefully we would know if Harris was president-elect by then.

I know, this is just one person.  But it is the demographic who is the target of Trump’s populist message.  And at least in this case, another four years of hate, grievance and chaos may be as unattractive to a broader audience than we might assume.

The 361

Forget 538, the total number of electoral votes and the election prediction site founded and formally run by Nate Silver.  The number that explains disbelief on both sides of the aisle that the outcome could possibly be so close is 361, the number of polling organizations trying to gauge the pulse of the electorate.  With that many players there are bound to be differences in methodology.  Consider the following

• Embarrassed by their missed calls before the 2022 midterms, several pollsters readjusted their sampling which they already adjusted when they under-sampled Trump supporters in 2016.
• Many pollsters base their sample on the historic turnout by different population cohorts, e.g., older voters.  Twenty million Gen-Z voters have been added to the rolls since 2020.   Polling of this demographic suggests they are breaking for Harris 2:1.
• Women are making up the larger present of new registrants, first-time voters and early voters.  Perhaps they are being under-sampled.
• As I blogged last week, maybe there is a silent, scared majority who are keeping their preference to themselves.

Elections are not won or lost by looking at national averages of all voters.  The best preview of what could happen Tuesday night is the Des Moines Register poll conducted by Selzer & Co., headed by its president J. Ann Selzer, recognized as one of the most reliable pollsters in the business.  At 4:00 pm Saturday,  the Register released its final tabulation of likely Iowa voters in which Harris held a shocking three point statewide lead over Trump.  To put this in context, the same poll had Trump leading Joe Biden in June by 18 points.

Throughout this election cycle, I have said, “If Harris can carry the women’s vote 60-40, nothing else matters.”  The Iowa poll gives Harris a 56-36 edge among female voters.  Other subsets of the poll show Trump with a five point lead in enthusiasm, a 14 point lead among men, a whopping 53 point lead among evangelicals and an eight point lead in the 35-54 age category. 

It doesn’t matter.  Women, in the post-Dobbs era, understand they are the only ones who can protect themselves, whether Donald Trump likes it or not.

Signs of the Times

Speaking of voter enthusiasm, this morning when I was walking our rescue dog, I made two observations why this year appears to be different from 2016 and 2020.  In a middle-income neighborhood made up of duplexes, which had its share of Trump/Pence yard signs in the last two elections, this year there were four Harris/Walz signs and NO Trump signs.  (below)

In an upper-middle class neighborhood, I came across a Trump sign from 2020 on which the homeowner had covered Pence’s name with duct tape.  At best, you cannot tell me a high-enthusiasm MAGA voter could not find the time and energy to replace their old sign with the updated one.  At worst, maybe they think reminding voters Pence is no longer on the MAGA ticket is preferential to reminding them who replaced the former vice president.

Epilogue

So keep your powder dry.  Don’t be rattled by the polls. But take nothing for granted.  Then get inspired for the election day push by watching Monday night’s live stream “get out the vote” extravaganza linking rallies in all seven battleground states.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The following are some random thoughts on the Democratic National Convention.

A ROLLING STONE LOSES SOME GLOSS

You don’t always get what you want!

~Mick Jagger

If, as I have on occasion, hate it when I am right, today I find myself loving it when I’m wrong.  There was no Beyonce or Taylor Swift last night.  Because they were not needed.  There were enough “rock stars” to fill the arena.  Comma-la’s grand nieces.  The “Exonerated Five.”  The “Liberated Five,”  former Congressman Adam Kinzinger, former Georgia Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan, former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham, former Trump national security official Olivia Troye and Mesa, Arizona mayor John Giles. And headliner Kamala Harris. 

I still think not including Jimmy Carter in the “parade of presidents” was a lost opportunity to remind voters a post-defeat president can accept the voters’ choice and still serve America in any number of ways.

SHORT ONE ABE

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

~President Abraham Lincoln

One would think Honest Abe covered all the bases.  But someone in the right-wing echo chamber proved him wrong.  Please add, “Some people are fools any chance they get.”  In this case, a representative of the media made the following observation as Kamala Harris walked out on the stage to accept her party’s nomination.  “The campaign told women to wear white yet she wore black.”  First of all, these are the same people who thought the world ended when President Obama wore a tan suit.  It did not.

Second, imagine the uproar if she, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, had worn white.  Fox News hosts would  accuse her  of playing identity politics pandering to women.   Or suggest anything but a tailored dark suit is unpresidential.  The Hollywood Reporter  provided the best explanation of her choice of attire, but of course, had to drop the designer’s name, something they never do when covering male politicians. “She bucked the night’s trend by wearing a custom navy power suit and matching silk blouse by French fashion house Chloé, a choice that seemed to say history has been made, now let’s get down to business.”

My only disappointment was that Donald Trump did not post the following on Truth Social.  “I’ve known Ka-MAH-la for a long time, not directly, and she always preferred white.  And then, all of a sudden, she turned navy blue.”

AS THE BRAIN WORM TURNS

No post-convention analysis would be complete without acknowledging Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s suspending his independent campaign and endorsing Trump.  Some “conservative” media outlets label this a “game changer,” and they may be right.  But not for the reasons they believe. 

There is one undeniable axiom in politics.  When the opposition is trying to define you, do not give them more ammunition.  Ask Mitt Romney who, as the Obama campaign portrayed him as insensitive to working Americans, said, “My job is not to worry about those people (referring to the 47 percent of voters he called ‘the taker class.’)  I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”  Which explains why the Harris campaign should welcome Bobby, Jr. as the perfect surrogate for Trump.

• If you thought Trump and J.D. Vance were weird before, now they have added the guy who dumped a dead bear in Central Park to their ticket.  A trifecta of weird.
• Have you ever noticed Trump is surrounding himself with people who hated him?  His VP choice once called him “America’s Hitler,” and now his latest sidekick once described him as a “sociopath.”
• More evidence that Trump puts himself above country offering RFK, Jr. a job in his administration in hopes of pandering to Kennedy supporters.
• Like Trump, Bobby Jr. is a forum shopper who puts self above country.  Trump was a Democrat until he realized his message of grievance and chaos played better with Republicans.  RFK Jr. has gone from seeking the Democratic nomination to being an independent candidate to asking Harris for a job in return for his endorsement to getting that offer from Trump.
• One more Trump surrogate who has no moral compass.  Kennedy claims to be an environmentalist yet supports the candidate who just promised the oil industry he would take care of them in exchange for a $1 billion donation to his campaign.
• One more Trump surrogate whose family thinks he has betrayed his heritage, unlike Harris and Tim Walz, who feel obligated to honor their own parents.

Thursday night, Adam Kinzinger told DNC convention, “I belong here.”  Likewise, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is right where HE belongs.

MICK JAGGER REDUX

Sometimes, people get what they want and wish they had not.  Such is the case with the Trump and MAGA state legislators pushing for paper ballots.  One result is that the extended time needed to print and distribute paper ballots forced states to wrap up that process earlier than in previous election cycles.  Remember, Democrats had to schedule an on-line roll call to meet Ohio’s ballot requirement.

According to Newsweek,  RFK Jr.’s name may still be on ballots in 23 states where he qualified as an independent candidate.  One of those states is Michigan.  ABC News reports, “A spokesperson for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said that Kennedy’s name would remain on the state’s ballots in November due to his status as a ‘minor party’ candidate.”  Do not forget, when her name appeared on primary ballots even after she  suspended her campaign, 15-20 percent of Republicans still voted for Nikki Haley.  Do not be surprised if something similar happens among Kennedy supporters.

Scottish-born Craig Ferguson, a naturalized U.S. citizen, would open every episode of his late night talk show with, “It’s a great day for America.”  Friday was one more.  But remember, the one that matters most is November 5th.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP