Category Archives: Random Thoughts

Random Thoughts 16 Days Out

 

As I start this post, the Deprogramming101 countdown clock is at 16 days, 15 hours, 7 minutes and 47 seconds until election day.  But who’s counting.  EVERYONE!  And, if you are obsessed with what is at stake on the ballot November 3rd, your head explodes with every new headline and poll, each worthy of a deeper examination.  However, this morning I thought I would share some random thoughts, some sane, some less so.

The Ginsberg Effect

Democrats hoped Ruth Bader Ginsberg had enough life left in her to survive until January 3, 2021, the date on which they expected a majority of Democratic senators to be seated in the “world’s most deliberative body,” a moniker which hardly seems still appropriate.  But Ginsberg is not the only person who was in the race against time.

This week I learned a revered member of our community and a Biden supporter had passed away after a long illness.  I am embarrassed to admit my first reaction, “Did she get a chance to vote before she left us?”  Then I learned she died five weeks ago, before mail-in ballots were distributed.  I am sure Marco Rubio, the People of Praise and Father Edward Meeks will chalk this up to divine intervention.  And they wonder why 26 percent of Americans do not believe in God.

Biden’s Cuban-American Problem

The Trump campaign believes Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County will once again deliver Florida’s 29 electoral votes for the Republican candidate as they did in 2016.  To make that happen, they have targeted this voting bloc with television and social media advertising reminding this faction they left Cuba to get away from socialism.  So, why would they vote for Joe Biden, who, with help from Bernie Sanders and AOC, will make America just like Cuba.  Unfortunately, the tactic seems to be working, especially among older Cuban-American voters.

Yet, that is not Joe Biden’s problem.  The more salient issue is the inability of his campaign or the DNC to reframe the issue.  This is not rocket science.  These people did not leave Cuba because of socialism.  If Cubans were wealthy and lived freely in an open society they would still be there.  They left because Fidel Castro was corrupt, jailed his political opponents and put ideology above the welfare of the people.  Where are the Biden ads which remind Cuban-American voters:

Since the Mariel Boatlift, which brought many of you or your ancestors to America, you have enjoyed the rewards of living in a democracy.  During the intervening 40 years, the United States has been governed by Democrats and Republicans, but they all had one thing in common.  They believed in the rule of law, the right for opponents of the government to have a voice and the nation’s leaders should be chosen by ALL the people.

For the first time since many of you arrived on American soil, that legacy is in danger.  Donald Trump wants you to believe he can only lose if the election is rigged.  He wants Attorney General Bill Barr to jail his political opponents.  He does not distinguish between the government and his personal business interests.  He prefers catering to Russia more than supporting the spread of democracy globally.  Sound familiar?  Isn’t that the real reason you came to America, to get away from autocrats?

Sometimes You’re Right

Hall of Fame Pitcher Dizzy Dean once said, “It’s not bragging if you can do it.”  So, I am going to give myself a pat on the back.  In Wednesday’s post “Heed the POLITICAL Scientists,” one of the OLD rules of politics which I believe still apply to the NEW politics of the Trump era was, “Manufactured October Surprises Seldom Work.”  I bet Rudy Giulliani and the New York Post wish they had been a subscriber to Deprogramming101.

Facebook, Twitter block The Post from postingLess than 24 hours later the Post published an article titled, “Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad.”  Within hours of its dissemination, Twitter announced the conspiracy theory had so many holes in it they blocked on-line links to the article.  And now the FBI is investigating whether Giulliani had been targeted by Russian intelligence to be the bagman in LaptopGate.

As I watched this farce unfold, I was reminded of something former Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) wrote in an article “How to Impeach Oneself” for The Hill.

Third, the president would bring in people to do damage control and have those supposed experts actually deliver more damage. This, of course, has been the outcome of the recent addition of Rudy Giuliani to the president’s personal legal team.

And Sometimes You’re Wrong

Some of you long-time readers might remember a February 15, 2017 post titled, “The Old Switcheroo,” in which I castigated NBC for courting the Trump resistance after “aiding and abetting the normalization of Donald Trump” during the 2016 election.  Evidence included Trump’s hosting “Saturday Night Live,” an appearance on the NBC/Golf Channel’s show “Feherty,” and Jimmy Fallon’s milquetoast interview in which he played with whatever that is on top of Trump’s head.

So, when NBC offered the crybaby-in-chief an hour of air-time opposite Joe Biden’s town hall on ABC, my first reaction was, “Here we go again.” In protest, I cancelled my subscription to Peacock, NBC’s new premium streaming service.  Catering to Trump was so unpopular among MSNBC on-air talent, they made a point of reminding viewers NBC News and MSNBC were separate legal entities under different management.

One voice in the wilderness was Joe Scarborough.  And the day after Trump’s latest on-air implosion, it was evident why Morning Joe was right.  He reminded us how quickly Trump’s approval ratings dropped during his White House “COVID briefings.”  In other words, the more people see Trump, the more likely they are to ask themselves, “Do I really want four more years of this?”  Even the overnight viewer ratings bear this out.  More people wanted to see what Biden had to say than watch Trump.

Sometimes I’m wrong, and that is not a bad thing.

The POLLar Express

If you are nervous about the outcome of this election, your blood pressure probably rises and falls based on the daily polling results.  Understanding where the race stands on any given day is further muddied by the numerous polling firms, the time frame in which the sample is queried and the differing methodologies.

One of my mentors in voting behavior, Richard Scammon, who designed the first exit poll, NBC’s Voter Profile Analysis, always reminded us, “Single polls tell you where voters are.  What you want to know is where they are heading.”  Unfortunately, most polls select a different voter sample each time they take the electorate’s temperature.  There is one major exception.  The USC Dornsife “Daybreak Poll” which repeatedly asks the same sample of approximately 5,500 likely voters their preference over two weeks, a 14th of the sample each day.  Their daily update is the average for that 14 day window.

Here’s what this kind of longitudinal tracking tells us.

  • On September 29, 2020, the day before the presidential debate, Biden already held a sizable lead 51.75-42.25 percent.
  • On October 1, 2020, the day after the debate, the lead increased to 52.48-42.14 percent.  Keep in mind, this is based on having re-checked only1/14 of the total sample.
  • As all of the sample were re-queried by the 14th day following the debate, the lead stretched to 53.72-41.58 percent.  However, a portion of the sample had now been affected by news of Trump’s contracting the coronavirus and hospitalization.
  • Since Trump’s return to the White House and campaign trail, the margin has hardly moved.  For October 16, 2020, the spread was 53.52-41.73 percent.

What does all this mean?  There has been some, but very little erosion, in Trump support, maybe .75 percent.  But late deciders, as predicted, are becoming more comfortable with Biden, increasing his support by almost two percent.

Of course, 16 days, 13 hours, 10 minutes and 1 second are an eternity in politics.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Build That Wall

 

Katie Waldman and Stephen Miller Wed at Trump Hotel - The New York ...If sometimes you wish you were a fly on the wall at Kellyanne and George Conway’s home, think what it must have been like earlier today at the Steven Miller household.  Fortunately, for us, Deprogramming101 has intercepted an email between Miller and his wife Katie.

FROM:  [email protected]
TO:  [email protected]
SUBJ:  Priorities
SENT: Friday, May 8, 2020, 2:05 PM

In case you hadn’t heard, your boss just told the nation I had tested positive for the coronavirus.  I guess that makes him a HIPAAcrit.  Fortunately, I am currently asymptomatic and should be okay.  However, the White House physician has asked that I isolate for at least 14 days though I’m considering extending my quarantine for at least a month.  And that includes from you.

I asked Rosita to put fresh linens, towels, your copy of 1984 and several back issues of The Daily Stormer in the guest quarters.  I understand it’s very comfortable.  At least that’s what Alex Jones told me during his last visit.

I know how excited you’ve been, using the pandemic to accelerate your anti-immigration agenda, but I wish you and that stable genius had spent a bit more time trying to figure out how to keep the virus from migrating from the West Wing to the Eisenhower Office Building.  Perhaps you can re-allocate some funding from the border wall to erect a 20 foot high barrier between our offices.

See you in June.  Don’t do anything illegal while I’m gone.  Like burning all the copies of the administration’s coronavirus guidelines.  You know, like I did with the student newspaper at the University of Florida when they endorsed my opponent for the student council.

Sleep tight.  Love,  Your All-American White Tigress

NOTE TO DONALD TRUMP:  This parody contains actual examples of sarcasm.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

 

Use Your Vein

 

Donald Trump, during his appearance at a Honeywell facility in Arizona, told reporters,  “You know I made the virus mutate.  In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I call it Corona Extra.”

Meanwhile, Trump campaign director Brad Parscale announced they would not be using the Rolling Stone’s “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” this fall because it might remind voters they haven’t received their unemployment checks, $1,200 stimulus payments or access to testing.  Among tunes considered as the theme for the 2020 campaign is the following (with apologies to Carly Simon).

You walked up to the podium
Like you had something worth talkin’ about
Your hair strategically across your scalp
Your UV tan, you did flout
You had one eye on the monitor
And watched yourself pontificate
And all the Trumpsters dreamed that you’d be their home boy
You’d be their home boy, and tell them
Use your vein
Fill it with Chlorox or booze
Use your vein,
Believe me, what could you lose?
Won’t you?
Won’t you?

POSTSCRIPT

During the Arizona presser, Trump was asked what Cinco de Mayo celebrates.  Trump answered, “Hmmm.  Heinz, Hellmann’s, Kraft, Duke’s and Miracle Whip.  Is that five mayos?”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

April Fools

 

With deference to David Letterman, I now present tonight’s TOP TEN list–April Fools when it comes to dealing with a global pandemic.

#10:  Every right-wing Trump sycophant who a la Sean Hannity said, “This program has always taken the coronavirus seriously and we’ve never called the virus a hoax,” nine days after saying, “They’re scaring the living hell out of people and I see it again as like, ‘Oh, let’s bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.’”

#9:  Georgia Governor Brian Kemp who claimed he did not know the coronavirus could be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers until March 31.  Either Kemp is an idiot, lying or, in contrast to most of us, turned off the television after Trump’s daily comments before Anthony Fauci and Deborah Brix took the podium to provide accurate and useful information about the pandemic.

Train derailment: Engineer said he was "suspicious" of nearby ...#8:  Eduardo Moreno, the railroad engineer who intentionally derailed a train in hopes of disrupting operations on the USNS Mercy, a hospital ship sent to Los Angeles to handle overflow from area hospitals.  Moreno told law enforcement officers he believed the vessel “had an alternate purpose related to COVID-19 or a government takeover.” Who says no one takes Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh seriously?

#7: Texas-based Evangelical preacher Kenneth Copeland who urged believers to place their hands on their television screens to be cured of the coronavirus.  In what should have been a parody of Flip Wilson’s trademark “the Devil made me do it,” Copeland claimed, “I’m not the sick trying to get healed. I’m the healed and the devil is trying to give me the flu… or whatever else kind of thing he’s trying.”

#6:  Not willing to cede his standing in the Evangelical community, Liberty University president Jerry Fallwell, Jr. encouraged the school’s 5,000 students to return to  campus after spring break.  “I think we have a responsibility to our students — who paid to be here, who want to be here, who love it here — to give them the ability to be with their friends, to continue their studies, enjoy the room and board they’ve already paid for and to not interrupt their college life.”  Within three days, 12 students had symptoms of the virus and all students were asked to self-quarantine for 14 days.  Even agnostics have to admit, if there is a God, she does work in mysterious ways.

#5:  Jim Hoft, head of the conservative media outlet The Gateway Pundit, claimed the coronavirus is “a man-made biological weapon that was created by globalists and other nefarious actors in an attempt to depopulate the planet.”  Hoft is way beyond “gateway.”  He is clearly taking much more potent drugs.

#4:  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who ironically chose April 1 to announce a state lock-down.  However, he gave Floridians 36 hours to host one more Coronavirus Party at the nearest sand bar before the effective date of midnight Thursday, April 2.

#3: Governor DeSantis earned another Top Ten by making “Attending services at churches and synagogues” the first exemption listed under essential activities not subject to the shutdown.  One cannot help but appreciate the irony this action was taken on April 1, a day that, in 2003, was declared National Atheists Day by a federal judge in response to a suit filed by the ACLU to have the federal government declare a non-religious holiday for atheists and agnostics.

#2: Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick who said, “No one reached out to me and said, ‘as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?”  When asked if he was ready to set an example for other senior citizens in the Lone Star State, Patrick presented a letter from his doctor saying he could not serve as a model for others because he had bone spurs.

And the NUMBER ONE April Fool when it comes to dealing with a global pandemic is Donald J. Trump, who on April Fools Day said, “I think also in looking at the way that the contagion is so contagious, nobody’s ever seen anything like this where large groups of people all of a sudden have it just by being in the presence of somebody who has it.”

If only we had non-contagious contagions, as Louis Armstrong would say, “What a wonderful world this would be!”  Not to mention if we did not have to tolerate these and other April fools.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Mental Distancing

 

It has been 12 days since the last post, but it is not for lack of effort.  There are several half-finished drafts of entries ranging from the illusion of U.S. oil independence to the inadequacy of the Hatch Act (restrictions on political activity by federal officials) to loss of another close friend.  The one thing I have made no effort to write about is the current health crisis.  Why?  Because I do not want to waste your time pontificating about something about which I know little or cannot add value to the conversation.  (Donald Trump, are you listening?)  Perhaps it is a corollary to Reinhold Niebuhr’s “Serenity Prayer.”

Dr. ESP’s Brevity Prayer

Grant me the time and clarity to opine on topics about which I actually know something,
the humility to step aside to make room when there are others who know more than I do,
and the wisdom to know the difference.

Useful, but it did not explain my inability, for almost two weeks, to replicate the routine by which I could previously wake up, grab a mug of coffee, check the news, then sit down at the keyboard and knock out a new post in a couple of hours.  The topics were there.  What I was missing were the metaphors and connections between seemingly unrelated information that provided lucidity and insight or a different perspective on the subject du jour.

The answer came yesterday during a “just checking in” phone call to a cousin.  During the conversation, he mentioned how he had not been able to do crossword puzzles, something he would enjoy while practicing social distancing.  There it was.  Not only was the health crisis depriving us all of things we liked to do in groups, e.g. go to dinner with friends or go to concerts, it also had the capacity to rob us of the things we enjoy doing alone.  My problem was not writer’s block, it was total mental block.

In my book ImagineIt!,  I start the chapter about the physiology of creativity, titled “Your Creative Hardware,” with a quote from the late Erma Bombeck.

I have a theory about the human mind. A brain is a lot like a computer. It will only take so many facts, and then it will go on overload and blow up.

In hindsight, that was the case with my most recent blogging sessions.  Previously, when I was focused on the topic at hand, every keyboard stroke created an untraveled road map with many paths.  Each word or phrase was not an end, but a beginning of the next leg of a journey of discovery.  If I follow that thought, where might it take me?  What if I abide by Robert Frost’s recommendation and take the “road less traveled,” eschewing conventional wisdom for the counter-intuitive option?

It was now clear that even if the coronavirus had not infected my body, it had invaded my mind. To pick up on the road map metaphor, before I had a chance to get back on the highway, I had the urge to pull over and make sure everything else was okay.  Was there enough food in the house?  Had I contacted everyone who needed an update on a postponed activity?  Was my slight cough just the usual pollen allergy or something more serious?  As my brain overloaded, per Erma Bombeck, I stepped away from the car and never completed my quest.

But as we are more than aware from our experience with COVID-19, making the potential victims aware of the danger and expecting them to do everything they can to avoid contamination are two different things. And compared to what it takes to inoculate oneself from the mental effects of this pandemic, physical distancing is a six-feet-apart walk in the park.

On occasion in my Imagination and Entrepreneurship class at Miami University, I would ask my students to close their eyes and think about nothing for five minutes.  The goal was to get the class to leave everything else outside the room.  And as they practiced and became more proficient at the art of not thinking, the realized it was about personal control.  While they could not determine every aspect of their life, the could regulate the extent to which certain responsibilities or obligations invaded their personal time.

So, when you find yourself unable to focus on a task, even if it as inconsequential as reading a trashy novel, finishing a jigsaw puzzle or enjoying a movie, take a few minutes to check the mental distance between yourself and what’s happening around you.  Unlike social (aka physical) distancing, you are not dependent on anyone else’s cooperation.  It is solely between you and your own mind.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP