The title of today’s blog comes from the following quote by Jean-Jacques Rousseau.

Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.

For many, including Late Show host Stephen Colbert, the end of our latest “national nightmare” can not come quickly enough.  During his live broadcast following Tuesday night’s “State of the Trump” address, Colbert shared a screen shot from CNN’s coverage leading up to the speech which included the tag line, “Trump Leaves White House Soon.”  To which Colbert begged CNN, “Don’t Tease!”

Colbert merely echoed what many members of the resistance are asking.  I have received numerous queries from blog readers asking, “Why is it taking so long for anything to happen? When are they going to hold hearings on the Russian connection?”  My response, “PATIENCE!”

Removal of a president (whether legitimately elected or not) from office is something that should not be taken lightly.  Particularly now, when the country is already deeply divided.  Forcing Trump to vacate the oval office before there is bi-partisan agreement that “enough is enough” would have serious consequences.  Remember, when Trump believed he would lose the election, some of his followers were ready to take up arms.  Whereas we are calling for resistance, some Trumpsters were calling for revolution.  Yes, there will always be those who will stand by their “glorious leader” (as he is called by the neo-Nazi on-line newsletter The Daily Stormer) regardless of the charges or the evidence.  Mainstream American has been disparaged often during the past two-years, but it is mainstream Americans who, when in agreement, make things happen.

It’s not like we haven’t been through this before.  So let me share what I believe are the parallels between the current situation and what was happening in 1972-74.  The Watergate timeline began with the break-in at the Democratic headquarters on June 17, 1972.  But this “third-rate crime” which brought down President Richard Nixon was only one instance of what became known as the Committee to Re-elect the President (CREEP) campaign of dirty tricks. The equivalent in the current saga is the February 9, 2017 disclosure of national security adviser Michael Flynn’s meeting with the Russian ambassador in December 2016.  It is just one instance of inappropriate and perhaps illegal interaction between the Trump entourage and Russian officials.  But as we now know as a result of last night’s report then-Senator, Trump surrogate and now Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions lied during his confirmation hearing about contact with Russians. This proves Flynn’s actions were not isolated events.

The June 23, 1972 Nixon recording, which became known as “the smoking gun,” included a conversation between Nixon and H. R. Haldeman during which the President orders the FBI to drop its Watergate investigation.  Although there is no recording (yet?), we do know that White House chief of staff Reince Priebus encouraged U.S. intelligence agencies to discredit reports by CNN and the New York Times concerning contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian officials (Source: USA Today, February 23, 2017). They rightfully refused to do so.

On August 30, 1972, Nixon reported to the nation that White House counsel John Dean had conducted a thorough investigation into Watergate and found there was no involvement by the president or his immediate staff.  If there is one thing we have learned about Donald Trump, he is willing to throw anyone and everyone under the bus to defend his actions.  In this case, the White House enlisted members of Congress including the chairmen of the House and Senate intelligence committees (Senator Richard Burr of NC and Representative Devin Nunes of CA) to counter the CNN and New York Times reports.  Right on cue, Nunes met with reporters on February 27, 2017, telling them, “As of right now, I don’t have any evidence of any phone calls.”  Note, this statement is not even based on a less than thorough review. It was made prior to the committee asking for or examining ANY evidence.

It was not until November 22, 1972 that the mainstream media picked up the Watergate story when CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite devoted 15 minutes of that evening’s broadcast to the scandal.  In contrast, both CNN and MSNBC have produced specials which outline the issues and questions which need to be answered.  UPDATE:  The MSNBC special was interrupted by the breaking news of the Washington Post report of Sessions’ meeting with the Russian ambassador.  Karma is truly a bitch.

So, my impatient readers,  it took five months and five days for Watergate to permeate the national consciousness (break-in to Cronkite broadcast).  We are at the same point in the Trump/Russia timeline after only 22 days (Flynn disclosure to today).  And I am confident there is a another FBI Agent W. Mark Felt aka Deep Throat who will risk his/her career to make sure the story is told and another Barry Goldwater who was the one to tell Nixon he needed to resign or Republicans would vote for impeachment and conviction if required to do so.  And the next Woodward and Bernstein who will keep digging until they uncover the whole truth. But they must be sure.  And that takes time.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

I have heard more than one commentator over the last week compare the the raid on an Al Qaeda structure believed to house Yemen terrorist leader Qassim Al-Rimi to the failed Bay of Pigs invasion during the first days of John F. Kennedy’s presidency.  The focal point for comparing the two is that both military actions were planned by one administration and left for execution to the next.

One valid point does not a general comparison make.  While the planning and execution of both operations spanned two administrations, the Bay of Pigs invasion was a covert operation developed by the CIA and its success was predicated on the false assumption the Cuban people would quickly join the rebels (exiled Cubans trained by the CIA).  In contrast, the Yemen raid was planned by the U.S. Department of Defense and executed by U.S. special forces.  The goal of the Bay of Pigs was to topple the Castro government.  The goal in Yemen is less clear as Al Qaeda in Yemen is seen as a terrorist organization yet also is seen as an ally of the U.S., Saudi and UAE backed government in the civil war with Shiite rebels.  Similar to the conflict in Syria, as they say in baseball, you can’t tell the players without a program.

Which brings us back to January 25, 2017 and the White House dinner at which the commando raid was approved.  Despite the differences between the two operations, there were lessons from the Bay of Pigs which should have been early warning signs for Donald Trump.  In hindsight, Kennedy realized he asked the wrong question during CIA briefings prior to the Bay of Pigs invasion.  He admitted he wrongly focused on the level of preparedness of the CIA-trained exiles and the supporting air strikes.  Instead, of inquiries about what and when, Kennedy realized the real question was, “Should we undertake this operation at all?”  In documents archived at the Kennedy Presidential Library, the newly inaugurated commander-in-chief opined whether he should have restarted the decision process from square one.  If he was going to own the outcome, should he rely on his predecessor’s decision process?

Clearly Trump is not a student of history, or if he is, he did not do well in the class.  Assuming he was handed a proposal outlining the Yemen operation and was told the ONLY reason the Obama administration delayed execution was to wait for a moonless night, Trump should have seen numerous red flags. (NOTE: Obama officials involved in the decision process claim they felt uncomfortable because the on-the-ground intelligence was not sufficient to proceed.  They were proven correct when it was determined the protection around the structure was greater than anticipated resulting in a prolonged firefight.)

The circumstances remind me of two teenage boys trying to create a little mischief.  The first boy buys some cherry bombs and identifies the neighborhood targets (mailboxes and trash cans).  Then he gives the firecrackers to his friend and tells him to light them.  The friend asks, “Why don’t you light them?  You did the easy and safe stuff.”  His partner-in-crime replies, “But you get to do the exciting stuff.”  Right, exciting until he loses a couple of fingers.

And that is what happened in Cuba and Yemen.  Kennedy lit the fuse and had to take responsibility for the deaths of many of the Cuban exiles and the imprisonment of the invasion survivors.  Whether he takes responsibility or not, Trump must reconcile the loss of a Navy SEAL as well as the deaths of nine women and 10 children without achieving the goal of capturing or killing Al-Rimi.

There was a another lesson from the Bay of Pigs, which fortunately President Kennedy embraced.  “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”  (NOTE: Not to be confused with George W. Bush’s attempt, “There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”)

Experience with the Bay of Pigs debacle is partially credited for Kennedy’s response to the Cuban Missile Crisis in November, 1962.  Despite advice from his military advisers to use the placement of Soviet mid-range nuclear weapons 90 miles away from the U.S. coastline as an excuse for a second attempt to overthrow Castro, JFK knew he, and he alone, would have to answer for the outcome.

Why do I share this with you?  Because I believe there are two more historical parallels on the horizon.  And if the current occupant of the White House fails to take advantage of the lessons from past events, the botched raid in Yemen will be a footnote to his tenure in office.  The first comes from the Vietnam era.  The presence of the American destroyer USS Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin created a situation which was used to justify escalation of U.S. involvement in Vietnam.  The result?  58,315 killed in action or non-combat deaths, 153,303 wounded-in-action requiring hospital care and 1,618 missing in action.  On February 17, 2017 the US Navy sent the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to patrol the South China Sea.  The American people and Congress should be wary of any reported incident or Chinese provocation, especially if it is associated with a proposed increase in military involvement in the region.

The second, of course, is the March, 2003 invasion of Iraq, attributed to false reports of weapons of mass destruction stockpiled by Saddam Hussein.  The result in this case?  4,424 killed in action and non-hostile deaths and 31,952 wounded in action.  A political and governmental vacuum which opened the door to Al Qaeda and ISIS.  All resulting from an imminent threat to the United States which was hardly a threat, much less imminent.

So when you hear of terrorist attacks in Bowling Green, Atlanta and Sweden, think of Iraq.  Terrorism is real, but it need not be exaggerated for political purposes.  And the fact there has not been an attack on U.S. soil directed from a foreign base since 9/11 should not be overlooked.  These are among the truths we should hold as self-evident.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP