The Drudge Report called Saturday’s final Des Moines Register poll in Iowa a shocking development.  I must disagree.  The only thing shocking about this reversal of fortune for Donald Trump is the fact people are shocked.  Iowa is ground zero for the perfect storm for Trump’s economic agenda.  It can be summed up in four words:  tariffs and mass deportations.

Iowa farmers already know what tariffs mean to the agriculture industry.  Choice Magazine assessed the impact on American farmers from Trump’s 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

In total, over 800 U.S. agricultural exports worth nearly $30 billion in 2017—including grains, livestock, dairy, horticulture, specialty crops, processed foods, beverages, tobacco and cotton—were hit by retaliatory tariffs in China, Canada, Mexico, the EU, Turkey, and most recently, India (June 2019).

In case you forgot, the cost of this ill-conceived trade policy was 19 billion taxpayers dollars to ameliorate the negative impact on farmers and food processors.

If Iowa farmers had not suffered enough, Trump’s proposal for mass deportations will further stifle two of the state’s major industries.  The absence of migrant workers will force farmers to reduce acreage or, in some instances, choose to forego some produce items.  But Iowans are not the only victims.  American consumers in every state will feel the inflationary impact of a scarcity of U.S. grown produce.

Mass deportation is also a double whammy for the meat processing industry, a second staple of the Iowa economy.  Facilities associated with meat preparation and packing operate 24 hours a day.  Two shifts are devoted to the core business.  The late shift involves the nightly clean-up and sanitation required by USDA.  Both aspects of the production cycle are largely staffed by documented immigrants and temporary workers.  Again, this would result in a major disruption of the supply chain, scarcity, and higher prices.

Due to its unique system of party caucuses, Iowans tend to be more politically astute than the average American.  This better grasp of  issues that affect them personally explains the possibility they have looked at Trump policies and decided to tell Trump “to go back where you came from.”  The remaining question is whether other largely rural Plains States look at the Des Moines Register poll and wonder, “Are they seeing something we have not?”  We’ll know the answer some time in the next few days.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP