Let me introduce you to “Momma Gator.” the main attraction on the creek which runs the length of the Florida island we call home.  I have gotten to know Momma quite well over the past five years as the path along the creek is the preferred route of my morning constitutional with our adopted rescue dog.  These walks have been especially rewarding since Momma gave birth to a pod of 28 baby alligators in August 2015.  (NOTE:  One of these days someone needs to explain to me why a collective of alligators is called a “pod” when they are young and a “congregation” when they reach adulthood.)

In the interest of truth in advertising, I must concede I took the above photo with a telephoto lens, but even then I stood within 15 feet where she was sunbathing that morning.  Momma and I understand each other.  She knows I am there to observe how she and the kids are progressing.  I know her primary interest is protecting her offspring until they are old enough to establish their own territory.  Within those boundaries we have co-existed and enjoyed each other’s company for quite some time.  Or at least I have.  She has never actually told me what she thinks of me and the dog.

I have always referred to her as Momma.  I never gave her a pet name.  This week, however, I thought about calling her “Kim.”  Why?  Despite her being a female, she seems to have a lot in common with Kim Jong-un.  She’s not very attractive except to the male gator who resides up the creek and visits her every couple of years to perpetuate the species.  She is overly protective of her progeny.  And she is potentially quite dangerous. But Kim and residents/tourists on the island have lived under a combat-free armistice agreement for many years.

I have witnessed only two disruptions to this state of relative tranquility.  The most recent occurred when a great blue heron (GBH) eyed several of the baby gators as a potential breakfast entree.  Kim was nowhere in sight until the GBH got within striking distance of its prey.  Kim had been lurking under the dollar weed which covers much of the creek and lunged at the predator with her jaws wide open.  It was a scene from a  National Geographic nature special.  Kim did not catch the GBH, but it hurriedly retreated and has not since been seen in the vicinity.

Which brings us to the current stand-off between the United States and North Korea.  Hasn’t there been a relative state of tranquility since the cessation of hostilities on July 27, 1953?  When you compare the Korean peninsula to the rest of the world, one could say it represents one of the most war-free zones on the planet.  Consider this partial list of post-1953 conflicts.

• Bay of Pigs (1961)
• Vietnam (1961-73)
• Israel (1967 and 1972)
• Lebanon (1982)
• Grenada (1983)
• Panama (1989)
• First Gulf War (1991)
• Somalia (1993)
• Haiti (1994)
• Bosnia (1994-95)
• Kosovo (1999)
• September 11 (2001)
• Afghanistan (2001-present)
• Iraq (2003-present)
• Libya (2011)
• Ukraine (2014-present)

Where is Teddy Roosevelt when you really need him?  The United States certainly has it’s share of “big sticks.”  According to the Arms Control Association, the U.S. has a stockpile of approximately 6,800 nuclear warheads. (Source: ACA website, updated July 2017)  A skill that American officials have not mastered is the ability to “speak softly.”  As recently as March 8, 2017, UN ambassador Nicki Haley gave the following assessment of the North Korean leader.  “This is not a rational person.  He is not thinking clearly.”

However, there is evidence to the contrary.  Consider the litany of provocations already aimed at the Pyongyang regime.  It as been called “evil.”  The United Nations has passed a multitude of resolutions condemning its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.  The United States has levied a series of sanctions to disrupt the North Korean economy.  The U.S. and South Korea have held joint military exercises off the coast of North Korea.  And now the Trump administration is expanding the THAAD missile defense system which  South Korean President Moon Jae-in has opposed until it can be debated by the national parliament.  One would think an irrational person, confronted with such provocation, would emulate Eric Stratton in John Landis’ 1978 film National Lampoon’s Animal House.  Facing expulsion, the members of Delta House planned their revenge.

Now we could do it with conventional weapons, but that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part!

Over the course of 64 years, neither Kim Jong-un nor his father nor grandfather has taken that approach.  In an April 26, 2017 article in Foreign Policy magazine, Andrei Lankov suggests the North Korean leader “is a survivor, not a madman.”  Lankov writes:

Kim Jong Un sees the nuclear program as purely defensive. Conquering the South would be nice in theory, but this task is completely beyond his reach, both due to the U.S. commitment to protecting South Korea and Seoul’s own huge advantage in economic and technological power. He knows that any unprovoked North Korean attack against South Korea or the United States will end badly, perhaps in his death, and he is certainly not suicidal.

“Unprovoked” is the operative word.  One has to assume there is some imminent threat to which Kim Jong-un, like Momma Gator in the case of the GBH, will bear his teeth.  Irrational behavior would be to increasingly test that boundary.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP