NOTE:  Today’s blog entry marks the 550th post since I created this site in October 2015.  Over the past three days, I thought about how I could best celebrate this milestone.  First, I went back to the 39 unpublished drafts I never finished.  Some were attempts to say something profound.  Others were intended simply to make you laugh.  As I reread each draft, I encountered a simple truth.  They did not meet either objective and deserved to be tossed in that digital round file.

The first image I saw this morning was the front page of the New York Times (below), dedicated to victims of COVID-19, by putting names to the numbers.  And there was the topic for today’s post.  Not how could this happen, but how did we let this happen?

Thank you to all who have followed this blog from the start and those who have joined the community over the years.

There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.

~George W. Bush

Bush 43 took a lot of grief for this one.  We all knew what he was trying to say.  “Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.”  Sadly, this “Bushism” overshadowed the point he was trying to make.  The occasion on which he made this gaffe was an appearance at the East Literature Magnet School in Nashville, Tennessee.  The topic was the importance of teaching American history and civic responsibility.  Thus lies the difference between W. and Trump.  On certain occasions, Bush 43’s heart was in the right place.

And as we are just over five months away from the next national election, I hope he was right when he said, “…you can’t get fooled again.”  I wish I was more confident.  And during the half-century since the time I studied voting behavior, an area of particular interest during my pursuit of degrees in political science, much has changed.

Back in the day, the most noted expert in the field was one of my mentors Richard M. Scammon who co-wrote The Real Majority: An Extraordinary Examination of the American Electorate, published in January 1970.  Scammon and co-author Ben Wattenberg predicted the 1968 presidential election was a harbinger of the coming defection of many life-long Democratc to the party of Nixon, Reagan, the Bushes and Trump.  And to some extent, it reinforced James Carville’s advice to Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy stupid.”  And while such wise counsel was correct when the nation is in recession, what Carville and others in the Democratic party failed to inquire was, “What happens when it’s not the economy?”

Scammon and Wattenberg argued, while the economy dominated politics for most of the 20th century, financial security resulted in a shift among middle Americans toward social issues.  In an early warning against identity politics, Scammon wrote, “The typical voter is unyoung, unpoor and unblack.”  Therefore, from a counter-intuitive perspective, the Democratic party becomes it own worst enemy ever time a Democratic administration cleans up the economic carnage left behind by their Republican predecessors.  Bill Clinton oversees the strongest economy in decades and voters choose “compassionate conservatism” over staying the course.  Barack Obama shepherds a seven year recovery from the worst recession in 70 years and the electorate chooses Trump’s “build that wall” and “lock her up” over Hillary Clinton’s “Big Challenges, Real Solutions.”

This explains why, despite his low approval ratings, a majority of analysts and political pundits predicted as late as January 2020, Trump was the odds-on favorite to win re-election.  Although Trump’s campaign thought their wildcard was the record high stock market and low unemployment, it was not the state of the economy which offered him a path to four more years in the Oval Office.  It was his ability to once again, in the absence of economic concerns,  make the election about cultural issues.

Which brings me back to W. and the opening quote.  In 2016, Donald Trump fooled just enough people to carry the electoral college.  Without the benefit of a post-pandemic economic boom, Trump and his surrogates struggle for a different rationale.  The latest ploy, as reported by the Associated Press this morning, is “Trust me.  We built the greatest economy in the world.  I’ll do it a second time.”

Fool me once?  For many Trump supporters, once is a quantum understatement.  Consider the following.

• Trust me.  If I am the nominee, I’ll show you my tax returns.  Still waiting.
• Trust me.  Melania’s Einstein visa was by the book.  She’s going to hold a press conference to answer your questions.  Still waiting.
• Trust me.  I welcome the opportunity to be interviewed by Robert Mueller.  Never happened.
• Trust me.  The majority of benefits from the tax cut will go to the middle class.  Never happened.
• Trust me.  I’ll drain the swamp.  More full than ever.
• Trust me.  I’ll tell you the truth.  That was 18,000+ lies ago.
• Trust me.  I’ll bring peace to the Middle East.  Still waiting.
• Trust me.  I will not profit from being president.  LOL.
• Trust me.  I’ll replace Obamacare with something better.  Still waiting.
• Trust me.  The coronavirus will miraculously disappear in April.  Weeping for the 100,000 dead Americans this Memorial Day weekend.
• Trust me.  Hydroxychloroquine can prevent your getting the coronavirus.  NOT.
• Trust me.  American farmers never had it better.  Record number of bankruptcies despite total $56 billion in bailouts.
• Trust me.  You’re going to get so tired of winning, you’re going to say, “enough already.”  Did he mean to say “whining?”

And yet 42.9 percent of voters say they will vote for Trump in November and 8.7 percent are still undecided. (Source:  Real Clear Politics Average of Polls)  Which is why November 3rd is not about Trump.  Imagine your doctor asked for your trust after being wrong so many times.  Or your financial advisor.  Or your lawyer. Or your pastor/rabbi lied to you constantly.  Or your therapist.  Or your boss.  Or one of your employees.  How long would you maintain that personal or professional relationship?  And if you did, how long before a friend or family member asked, “Are YOU insane?”

In an effort to expose Trump’s character and its impact on America, people including former First Lady Michelle Obama often quote Maya Angelo.  “When someone tells you who they are, believe them.”  If, on November 3rd, the voters give Donald Trump four more years as president, chief executive and commander-in-chief, all jobs for which he has demonstrated incompetence and a lack of basic understanding, it will prove Angelo’s words were directed at the wrong audience.  A more accurate interpretation would be, “When we see ourselves for who we are, believe it.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP