Two stories about seemingly unrelated statistics explain why Donald Trump is in danger of losing EVERYONE except his basest supporters.

Polls

This week there was a convergence of numbers unseen in recent history.  Yesterday’s Gallup poll showed Trump’s approval at a new low of 37 percent.  Disapproval is now 56 percent.  Considering the drip-drip-drip of news stories suggesting Trump engaged in efforts to inhibit or even stop the Trump/Russian investigation, no one should be surprised Comrade Trump’s popularity is in free-fall.

However, a perhaps more significant poll is last Tuesday’s Public Policy Polling survey which included a question related to voter preference in the next congressional election.  For the first time in decades, the margin of support for Democrats over Republicans reached double digits (49-38 percent).  It’s hard to argue the side-by-side tracking of Trump’s approval rating and generic congressional voter preference is mere correlation.  So I repeat Kevin Gottlieb’s observation, “When politicians feel the heat, they see the light.”

Much criticism has been aimed at Republican senators and representatives for “putting party before country”  Even if that is true, the one thing they will not do is put party ahead of re-election.  Especially in defense of someone who routinely uses and abuses his supporters for his own, selfish purposes.  Just ask Devin Nunes,  Jason Chaffetz or General McMaster.

Rest assured, every potential Democrat challenger is stocking up on pictures of their Republican opponent next to Trump, the 2018 version of “political pornography.”

Cable News Ratings

For the week of May 14-19, Variety reports, ” For the first time in its history, MSNBC ranked number one in both total viewers and the key adults 25-54 demographic during prime time for a full week among the big three cable news networks, according to Nielsen data.”  Fox News placed second in total viewership and third–behind MSNBC and CNN–with the key adults.

Fox News’ decline can only be described as a “perfect storm.”  First, revelations about payments to numerous victims of sexual harassment superseded by even larger several packages for Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly.  Second, the replacement of Reilly with Tucker Carlson.  (Where is Lloyd Benson when we really need him?  “Mr. Carlson, you are no Bill O’Reilly.)   And third, the media outlet’s increasing inability to convince its audience, in light of the daily exposure of White House incompetence and malfeasance, there is no there there.  As more and more viewers abandon the Fox News “spin zone,”  reinforcement of Trump’s excuses, finger-pointing and ever-changing justifications for the unjustifiable also diminishes.

It is yet to be seen how these numbers will impact the political landscape.  But something is happening here.  As Daniel Boorstin writes in his 1962 book The Image: A Guide to Pseudo-Events in America,  “The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance–it is the illusion of knowledge.”  A first step in overcoming an illusion of knowledge is changing one’s sources of information.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP