Oasis in the Desert

There are no consolation prizes in electoral politics.  And if the sun still came up this morning, we did not see it.  It is gray and raining on Amelia Island, Florida, the only appropriate weather to match what so many of us are feeling.  So, I know there is nothing I can say that will stem your disappointment and fear of the future.  Nor am I going to point fingers or, for the 14th million time, wonder, “How can people keep voting against their own self-interest?”  Perhaps former Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill best summed it up this morning. “Donald Trump understood the American people better than we did.”

My message this morning is actually quite positive.  Regular readers know I often opine about the challenges of living in Nassau County, Florida where Republican voters outnumber Democrats 3:1.  This year, however, with the help of my wife, a long-time friend and a couple of newer ones, we decided not to let our minority status keep us from doing whatever we could for the cause.  The five of us put up the front money to run a full-page ad in our local papers.  The message was simple.  Democrats in statewide races are not going to carry Nassau County, but we can do our part.  Within 48 hours of sharing this strategy with kindred spirits, we doubled our resources and made a commitment for a series of three ads.

I am pleased to report that this loosely organized collection of county residents, whom we call “a cabal of good troublemakers,” to honor Congressman John Lewis’ memory, WE DID IT.  With 99 percent of Florida votes tabulated, Kamala Harris received 633,000 FEWER statewide votes than Joe Biden in 2020.  However, in Nassau County, Harris’ total votes INCREASED to 17,101 compared to Biden’s total of 15,564 four years ago.  In other words, voters in our ruby red jurisdiction dramatically outperformed the state average.

However, as a trained behavioral social scientist, I would be foolish to equate correlation with causation.  A major factor in this success story was another ad hoc group of individuals who heeded Michelle Obama’s call “to do something.”  The Amelia Island Postcard Writers, a group of overwhelmingly female volunteers, sent more than 21,000 handwritten postcards to Nassau County voters.  Their first target audience were registered Democrats who had not voted in either 2020 or 2022.  That wise strategic decision surely contributed to this cycle’s higher Democratic turnout.

If that were not enough, the brightest ray of light on a otherwise dark day was the success of two challengers who defeated incumbent city commissioners, including one who is a member of the most prominent political family in northeast Florida.  In what, by law, is supposed to be a non-partisan local election, the two incumbents received the majority of their funding from a Republican PAC based in Tallahassee.  In addition, the PAC covered the printing and mailing of materials replete with disinformation about the incumbents’ opponents.  Fortunately, a writer for the local on-line newspaper, immediately exposed the connection between the incumbents and their dark money source.

Joyce Tuten (@joycetutencampaign) • Instagram photos and videosTo be honest, when my friend announced she was taking on the incumbent mayor, the latest acorn to fall from the oak that overshadows local politics, I did not think she had a “snowball’s chance in hell.” But from day one, when she reached out to the community not only for support, but also for advice, you had no choice but to jump on  the bandwagon.  Equally important, she did not let the questionable tactics of her opponent faze her.  She stayed on message, showed up everywhere and insisted she could win.  And by George, she did.

What do these three rays of light have in common?  None were initiated or managed by an official arm of an “organized” political party.  Each effort organically emerged among a small group of individuals who did not wait to be told what to do or how to do it.  For lack of a better term, one might call it “political entrepreneurship.”  Just as Skype disrupted the telephone industry, this non-traditional, innovative approach to politics fits the classical definition of entrepreneurship, “creative destruction.”  Maybe it’s time to bring in a few more wrecking balls.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

13 thoughts on “Oasis in the Desert

  1. Wonderful summary! In my morning dismay I realized that we need to continue our grassroots efforts starting tomorrow (take today off to mourn). This political outcome did not start 10 years ago. This movement started way back in the 1980’s. They started putting folks on local school boards. They were patient and persistent. Lesson for us in Nassau County.

  2. Many thanks.
    As we grieve for our country today it is vital to remember that kind, decent people still exist. Shelley is right, this condition has been building for a long time and will take a long time to remedy. We will work together to start turning the tide.

  3. I harken back to the days of your state and national political endeavors, and I’m proud to say ‘I knew you when’. Congratulations on your success, back in the grassroots! We Floridians are still swimming against the Red Tide but, with continuing, albeit painstakingly small successes, Humanity has a chance to rebound.

  4. Thanks. I see the Nassau County results as a bit of sanity in this awful election. And I keep reminding myself that “all politics is local”. We need to keep up the fight!

  5. Thank you for all your efforts and for today’s «  good news » in the face of such a devastating event. Many of us in Canada are appalled, all the more since we see how this will embolden the far right here and its leader, Pierre Poilievre. I noted your comment about influences on the educational system …. Food for thought, as we are wondering what kind of system produces a majority of voters such as we saw yesterday … people easily swayed by inflammatory language and appeal to emotion, seeking easy answers to complex questions. Very scary!

  6. Thanks for your efforts and I love your mention of the quote by Clare McCaskill: “Donald Trump understood the American people better than we did.” There is a message there for the DNC —in my humble opinion. And I would venture that is a large part of our local candidate winning…..they understood the desires of Fernandina voters. Again, thank you for your initiate in supporting the Harris campaign.

    Our country has had dark times before and come out the other side.

  7. Thank you for taking the initiative to spread the message of a positive, constructive and inspiring Democratic campaign. We are very proud to have been a small part of your efforts and look forward to promoting that message in the future.

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