After losing the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, the Republican Party conducted what it called the “Growth and Opportunity Project.” The final report, often referred to as “the autopsy,” included the following assessment.
At the federal level, much of what Republicans are doing is not working beyond the core constituencies that make up the Party… It is time to smartly change course, modernize the Party, and learn once again how to appeal to more people, including those who share some but not all of our conservative principles.
The findings were based, in part, on contacts with over 52,000 individuals through on-line surveys, conference calls, focus groups and interviews. Here are a few of the recommendations.
- Our policies must lead people to a better life through a thriving, growing private sector that works for the middle class, and those in need.
- We have to blow the whistle at corporate malfeasance and attack corporate welfare.
- America is changing demographically, and unless Republicans are able to grow our appeal the way GOP governors have done, the changes tilt the playing field even more in the Democratic direction.
- Among the steps Republicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform.
- When it comes to social issues, the Party must in fact and deed be inclusive and welcoming.
Hard to argue with any of this. But there is a bigger problem. During focus groups in Des Moines, Iowa and Columbus, Ohio, populated with former Republican voters who had left the party, the participants used the following words to describe the GOP: scary, narrow minded, out of touch, a party of stuffy old men. In other words, Republicans needed more than new policies. They also need candidates who could articulate this new message optimistically and without anger a la Ronald Reagan.
There were Republican candidates in 2016 who fit this bill and would probably have made Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House more challenging. We already hear Republican leaders imagining what the campaign would look like, “if only John Kasich was our nominee.” So the next “autopsy” needs to focus less on policy and more on why the GOP ended up with a ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence who epitomize the negative perceptions voiced by the former Republicans in the Iowa and Ohio focus groups.
Will Paul Ryan or John Kasich become the individual who revitalizes the GOP by embracing the policy recommendations from the Growth and Opportunity Project? According to an article on Bloomberg News this morning, the probability of such a directional shift is highly questionable. Bloomberg News asked registered Republicans, “If Clinton wins, which of the following do you want to be the face of the Republican Party nationally?” The results.
Mike Pence/27 percent
Donald Trump/24 percent
Ted Cruz/19 percent
Paul Ryan/15 percent
John Kasich/10 percent
Not Sure or None of the Above/5 percent
While the autopsy rightfully calls for the party to expand beyond its core constituency, the current core of the GOP would prefer leadership which is least likely to achieve that goal. Thus, the next Republican campaign is not against a Democratic opponent, but within the party, no easy task. Remember, earlier this year, Trump was boasting about the millions of new voter registrants he brought to the party. The question which determines the future of the GOP may be, “To what extent will these new Republicans remain loyal to Trump’s version of the party and will they still identify as Republicans if the leadership tries to steer them toward a future more in line with the 2013 autopsy?”
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP