A few posts back, I discussed the difference between acknowledging Donald Trump as “the” president versus “my” president.  Words matter.  This time the distinction lies between the words “voter” and “voting.”

Much is being written and talked about concerning “voter suppression.”  The Brennan Center for Justice reports, as of February 19, 2021, “state lawmakers have carried over, pre-filed, or introduced 253 bills with provisions that restrict voting access in 43 states.”  To be fair some are multiple versions on a single issue.  For example, 11 bills related to absentee voting have been introduced in the current session of the Alabama legislature.

But it is not the voter who is being suppressed.  The registered voter will still be there.  What is being affected is the ability of that person to cast a ballot during an election.  Therefore, the more accurate term would be “voting suppression.”  And as we know from multiple sources, including his recent statement before the Supreme Court, Michael Carven, attorney for the Arizona Republican Party, admitted the target for “voting suppression” is likely Democratic voters.

If you want to understand the difference between “voting” versus “voter” suppression, you have to start by looking at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion survey, conducted March 3-8, in which respondents were asked, “If a vaccine for the coronavirus is made available to you, will you choose to be vaccinated?”  Why is this important?  Leading health experts from Dr. Anthony Fauci to CDC director Rochelle Walensky contend Americans can return to a reasonable level of economic and social normalcy when 75 to 80 percent of all adults have been vaccinated, a prerequisite for effective herd immunity.

So let’s look at the numbers.  According to the Marist survey, there is still work to do.  Among all adults, 30 percent say they would not get vaccinated, while 22 percent indicated they had already received at least one dose and another 45 percent said they plan to get vaccinated when their turn comes.  But the average for the total population, as usual, does not tell the whole story.  Consider the following data on certain subsets of individuals who say they will not get vaccinated.

Republican Men/49 percent
Trump Voters/47 percent
White Men without College Educations/40 percent
White Evangelical Christians/38 percent

In contrast, the population cohort with the smallest percentage of vaccine deniers is (drum roll) Black Americans.  How many news reports have focused on anticipated resistance by African-Americans, based on the historic abuses of minorities as medical trial subjects, the most obvious being the Tuskegee Experiment when 600 African American men in Macon County, Alabama were selected to study the progression of syphilis, which at the time had no known treatment.  Instead of testing the efficacy of penicillin, the most promising treatment, all 600 were given a placebo.

How could the pundits be so wrong?  Maybe, based on the morbidity rate among minorities, Black Americans understand how deadly COVID-19 can be.  Call it common sense.  Unlike Jina Militello, a school teacher and 2020 Trump voter, who appeared on today’s edition of Morning Joe.  When asked by NBC reporter Kate Snow why she is not listening to the advice of health officials, Militello responded, “I believe the risk from the vaccine is greater than getting the virus.”  Sound familiar?  How many converts were COVID-19 deniers until someone they loved or they themselves contracted the disease?  Militello is obviously outside the one in five Americans who knows someone who died from COVID-19.

Which brings me back to the difference between “voter” and “voting” suppression.  Voting suppression did not work in 2020 and will not work in the future.  Why?  Because as rightfully predicted by many, determined Democrats  will “walk through fire” when anyone tries to disenfranchise them.  Sadly, that will not be the case when it comes to vaccine deniers.  Even as the number of deaths from COVID-19 continue to decline, the percentage of the remaining deaths will be significantly highly among the unvaccinated.  And if that cohort consists largely of Republican men and Trump supporters, will GOP leadership understand they are suppressing their own electoral base when they do not encourage their supporters to get vaccinated?  Not by making it harder for them to cast a ballot, but by increasing the odds they will be eliminated forever from the voting pool.

It reminds me of an old joke.  A driver slows down to avoid hitting a jaywalker.  The passenger says, “Why did you slow down?  He was smoking and is going to die anyway!”  Worried about a friend or relative who continues living in that alternative Trump/GQP universe?  Don’t worry.  There are 50/50 odds they are not going to get vaccinated and you will not have to worry about them much longer.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP