Many of you will remember the picture on the right of NBC News political director Tim Russert and his now-famous, low-tech white board.  Early in the evening, Russert predicted the 2000 election would hinge on the outcome in Florida.  And after weeks of recounts and legal challenges, everyone was congratulating Russert for his foresight.

There’s just one problem.  The election should never have come down to Florida.  The Sunshine State only mattered because Democratic candidate Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee by four percentage points.  And unlike Florida, where Nader and a poorly designed Broward County ballot contributed to George W. Bush’s margin of victory, the three independent candidates–Ralph Nader, Harry Brown and Pat Buchanan–tallied just 1.3 percent of the total vote.  In other words, the people who knew him best, rejected Gore in 2000.  Flip the Volunteer State’s 11 electoral votes and Gore carries the electoral college 277 to 261 even after losing Florida.

In 2004, Garrison Keillor suggested, during Prairie Home Companion’s annual joke show, John Kerry had a similar problem.  “People outside the Northeast don’t know Kerry, and people from the Northeast know him too well.”  Whether this was a factor in the election is not important.  What Tennessee voters and Keillor are telling us is maybe we should pay more attention to people who have real experience with presidential candidates.

Which brings us to 2016 and a fairly unique situation.  For the first time since 1940 when Franklin Roosevelt ran against Wendell Willkie (though born in Ohio, Willkie lived in New York at the time of the election), both major candidates reside in the same state.  This is only the fourth time in the history of presidential elections this has been the case.  And they are more than mere residents.  Hillary Clinton served New York as U.S. Senator for eight years.  And the Trump Organization headquarters are located in Manhattan and most of his early real estate projects were built in the tri-state region.

So what are Empire State voters telling us.  Remember, when he announced his candidacy, Trump boasted he was going to flip New York which is among the bluest of the blue states in presidential elections.  Yet the average of 30 polls in New York show Clinton with a 17.3 percent lead as of September 21.  Why is this important?  According to Nate Silver’s 538 Now-Cast, if the election were held today, Clinton would win with 280 electoral votes to Trump’s 250.  And the pundits will be focused on Ohio and Florida.  But the fact is the outcome would be reversed if Trump carried his own state.  If New York’s 29 electoral votes shifted to the Trump column, the final tally would be 279 for Trump and 251 for Clinton.

Only twice in American history has a candidate lost his home state and still won the presidency–James K. Polk in 1844 and Woodrow Wilson in 1916.  There’s probably a good reason for that.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP