Today’s post is a lesson in political geography.  It was triggered by the first announcements by Democrats of their intention to seek the party’s nomination for president in 2020. In particular, the fact three out of the first four candidates out of the gate are from reliably BLUE coastal states: Kamala Harris (CA), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) and Elizabeth Warren (MA).  The exception is Julian Castro (TX).

However, if you are a Democrat and more interested in retaking the White House in 2020 regardless of the nominee, you might want to pay attention to the home states of past nominees for the last 75 years.  Since Franklin Roosevelt’s nomination to a fourth term in 1946, only one Democrat–John Kennedy (MA)–from a BLUE coastal state has been elected president.  The other winning candidates include Harry Truman (MO), Lyndon Johnson (TX), Jimmy Carter (GA), Bill Clinton (AR) and Barack Obama (IL).  In contrast, three unsuccessful Democratic nominees during this period include Michael Dukakis and John Kerry (MA) and Hillary Clinton (NY).  Ironically, during this same time span, more Republicans from these stronghold BLUE states have occupied the oval office than Democrats:  Ronald Reagan (CA), Richard Nixon (CA) and Donald Trump (NY).

What could possibly explain this phenomenon?  Consider the following.  The George Bush/Al Gore campaign was one of the first where likability became a hot topic.  Remember when pundits were saying the election might come down to which candidate you’d most like to have a beer with?  I think there may be a better test.  Which candidate are you more likely to go to sleep with?  No, it is not about sex.  It’s about late night television.  With the exception of Jay Leno (New Rochelle, NY), four of the icons of late night TV grew up in the Midwest or farm states:  Jack Paar (Canton, OH), Johnny Carson (Corning, IA), Dick Cavett(Gibbon, NE) and David Letterman (Indianapolis, IN).  The current late night darling of liberal Democrats is not Jimmy Fallon or Jimmy Kimmel, both from New York.  It is Steven Colbert who, although born in Washington, DC, grew up on James Island, South Carolina.

Which brings me to the title of today’s post.  It is a reference to Montana Governor Steve Bullock, a Democrat, who is contemplating a run for the White House.  Yes, Montana, home of the survivalist movement, where according to a local real estate company, “Everyone in Montana loves hunting season more than the Christmas season.”  Montana, the bastion of libertarian-ism where the speed limit is “You Decide.”  Montana, which voted for Trump over Clinton by a margin of more than 20 percentage points.

Dr. ESP, say it isn’t true.  Have you joined the wing of the Democratic party which says we need to appeal to Trumpsters to defeat him?  Don’t you realize the BLUE WAVE last November was about progressive issues with which most Americans agree.  Were you staring at the super wolf blood moon too long last night?

NO!!! Just the opposite.  Bullock has twice been elected Governor of a RED state even though he has taken the following positions on national issues.

• Bullock is pro-choice and vetoed two bills restricting late-term abortions.  In 2013, he received a 100 percent rating from NARAL.
• He is an advocate of campaign finance reform and as Montana’s attorney general challenged the Citizens United decision.
• He supports DACA and last April refused to deploy National Guard troops to the Mexican border.  He supported the resettlement of Syrian refugees in Montana despite opposition from the Republican legislature.
• In 2014, he supported legislation which made Montana the 34th state to legalize same sex marriage.
• He opposed the FCC’s decision to repeal net neutrality and signed an executive order prohibiting any internet provider with a state contract from blocking or charging fees for faster web service.
• He is pro-labor and has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO and Montana Education Association.
• He supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election.

Am I ready to jump on the yet to be fired-up Bullock bandwagon?  No.  I am just pointing out Democrats do not need to moderate positions to attract Trump supporters.  What they do need are more people who can explain to those voters, from their own perspective, why they should support mainstream progressive issues and candidates who espouse them.  Steve Bullock is a good role model.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP