The GOP’s Recessive Gene

Economics, Politics

Before January 6, 2021, there was another “big lie.”  Republicans repeatedly told us that they are the guardians of the U.S. economy.  Yet, according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, there have been 11 recession since 1953 of which 10 took place during Republican administrations.  Consider the following.

  • During the Eisenhower administration (1953-61), there were THREE recessions with a combined duration of 28 months.  The peak unemployment rate rose to 7.4 percent.  Chronologically, gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 2.7, 3.7, and 1.6 percent during each of the three downturns.
  • During the Kennedy/Johnson administration (1961-65), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Johnson administration (1965-69), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Nixon/Ford administration (1969-1977), there were TWO recessions with a combined duration of 27 months.  The peak unemployment rate was 8.6 percent.  GDP declined by 0.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
  • During the Carter administration (1977-1981), there was ONE recession with a duration of 6 months.  Peak unemployment was 7.8 percent and GDP declined by 2.2 percent.
  • During the Reagan administration (1981-1989), there was ONE recession with a duration of 16 months.  Peak unemployment was 10.8 percent and GDP declined by 2.9 percent.
  • During the George H. W. Bush administration (1989-1993), there was ONE recession of eight months duration.  The peak unemployment was 6.8 percent and GDP declined by 1.5 percent.
  • During the Clinton administration (1993-2001) there were NO recessions.
  • During the George H. Bush administration (2001-2009), there were TWO recessions of combined 26 months duration.  The peak unemployment rate was 9.5 percent and GDP declined by 0.3 and 4.3 percent, respectively.
  • During the Obama administration (2009-2017), there were NO recessions.
  • During the Trump administration (2017-2021), there was ONE recession with a duration of two months.  The peak unemployment rate was 14.7 percent.
  • During the Biden administration (2021- present), there have been NO recessions.

To recap, since 1953, there have been five Republican administrations with a total of 10 recessions.  Over the same period, there has been six Democratic administrations with only one recession.   The combined duration of GOP recessions is 117 months compared to six months for Democratic presidents.

There has not been a single recession during the past three Democratic administrations spanning 19.5 years in the White House.  In contract, there has not been a single Republican administration in the past 71 years without at least one recession.  In terms of impact, Republican recessions are longer in duration and have higher average peak unemployment.

One of the great mysteries of life is why the CEOs of so many major U.S. corporations continue to back the party that seems to have recession built into their DNA.  Perhaps, Forrest Gump provides the best explanation.  “Stupid is as stupid does.”  Or as George Constanza advised Jerry Seinfeld how to beat a polygraph test, “If YOU believe it, it’s not a lie.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP