…a concept in geopolitics and espionage where foreign assets in a conspiracy tend to rise to their level of incompetence or point of no future usefulness.
~From The Putin Principle by Vladmir Vladimirovich Putin
Today, alleged Russian spy Maria Butina is scheduled to plead guilty in federal court to being an unregistered foreign agent and is likely to receive a sentence of time served (five months since her arrest in July) and deportation back to Russia. The quid pro quo? Butina has been providing information to Justice Department investigators including the identity of Americans she used to infiltrate organizations such as the National Rifle Association as a means of promoting Russian interests.
If there was any doubt Butina is a real-life version of Keri Russell’s character in The Americans, consider the following excerpt from Malcolm Nance’s book The Plot to Destroy Democracy.
According to Time magazine, when (Russian banker and Putin confidante Alexander) Torshin recruited the lovely young woman she was a furniture salesperson in Siberia but moved to Moscow in 2011 to set up a pro-gun-rights group called Right to Bear Arms. This was the same time Torshin was publishing a pamphlet called “Guns Don’t Kill. People Kill.” Butina captured the hearts of American gun enthusiasts in provocative photos. In them she presented sultry photos of herself with Saiga combat shotguns, holding Makarov pistols and standing over a dead boar.
Nance is my go-to guy when it comes to understanding covert operations. He has been there and done that. While the mainstream media have raised concerns about Butina’s fate if she is deported back to her homeland, he provides the more likely scenario. To paraphrase Nance, “She will be welcomed back as a hero. She did exactly what she was recruited to do.” Yesterday on Progress Radio, Nance explained the difference between U.S. and Russian covert operations. “Americans ask their men to stand up for their country. Russians ask their women to lay down for theirs.”
But here is the story I think everyone else is missing. As reported, the people most shocked by Donald Trump’s “win” in the 2016 election were the candidate himself, his family and all the hangers-on (e.g. Flynn, Manafort) who used Trump to make connections from which they planned to profit after the campaign. I am going to make a case Putin was not far behind.
Going into the 2016 election, the Russians had the following major objectives.
- Create general chaos in the American political system.
- Repeal of the Magnitsky Act which authorizes sanctions against human rights offenders and had been used by the Obama administration to freeze the assets of powerful Russian oligarchs.
Let’s start with the latter. NO president could unilaterally make the Magnitsky Act disappear. It was an act of Congress. Therefore, helping any sympathetic Republic candidate for president would not be enough. Russia also had to intervene in the congressional election. And what did most GOP candidates have in common. Unwavering support for the Second Amendment. Enter Torshin and Butina plus a surge in NRA spending in support of GOP senate and house races.
In terms of creating chaos, if you think things are tumultuous now, consider what it would be like if Hillary Clinton had won. Remember, just prior to the election, there were rumors the next Trump project was a multimedia empire with a number of partners including Steve Bannon. In August 2016, Vanity Fair media expert Sarah Ellison reported Trump already had discussions within his inner circle about “how to monetize” the new audience he attracted during the campaign. Imagine Fox News on steroids. The New York Times described a potential Trump network as “raucous WWE-style political entertainment with an audience that thrills on it.”
Guess who else would have been thrilled. Vladimir Putin. I know, he already had RT television offered by most cable providers and via streaming. But the total U.S. audience for RT was reported to be no more than 1.5 million viewers. Just imagine an outlet playing to the 35 percent of Americans who live and die on Trump’s tweets and platitudes. Putin knew Trump would not be able to access financing for the project from U.S. banks. He would need Russian money. Call it приманка и переключатель, Russian for bait and switch.
Donald, that tower you want to build in Moscow. The one with my penthouse apartment. I have better idea. Instead, we build worldwide media empire. You provide audience like APPRENTICE, I provide cash. Oh, we also provide programming.
That was Plan A. Just one problem. Trump does not lose.
Time for Plan B. First, begin working with the new administration to drop sanctions. Second, continue to stroke Trump’s ego. He will create enough chaos on his own. No assistance needed. But, from Russia’s perspective, this too proved to be a flawed strategy. Once the U.S. intelligence community confirmed Russian interference in the 2016 election, it became untenable for most GOP legislators to vote for, much less sponsor, a lifting of Magnitsky Act sanctions. Quite the opposite. Congress passed additional sanctions and gave Trump a deadline for implementation.
Forget the second objective, creating general chaos in the U.S. That is not the real threat to Putin’s survival. Oligarchs may revel in divisions among the U.S. population, but their support for Putin depends solely on their continued financial well-being. They cannot be happy the sanctions are still in place.
Putin by now must realize Plan A did not work. Neither did Plan B. Maria Butina would not be pleading guilty and outing the NRA, GOP activist Paul Erickson and others without Kremlin approval. Putin must surely have another trick up his sleeve. But I have faith the U.S. intelligence community is working diligently to anticipate Plans C-Z, even if the White House is not.
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP
You nailed it.