So tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans, I ask for your support.

~President Richard Nixon/November 3, 1969

In this excerpt from a televised address to the nation outlining his plan to end the war in Vietnam, Richard Nixon coined the phrase “silent majority.”  His target audience was Americans who rarely if ever spoke about politics, citizens he was convinced had voted for him the year before and would assure his re-election in 1972.   With the help of a divided Democratic Party and a weak nominee, Nixon made his re-election landslide an “I told you so” moment.

Every time I hear pollsters talk about the undercounted support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, I wonder if a “silent majority” will carry him to a second term in November.  Though my first thought always is, “Trump supporters are anything but silent.”  Which begged the question, “This time, could there be a pro-Harris silent majority not measured by the boisterous enthusiasm at every one of her rallies?”  But maybe, just maybe, it is more complicated than that.  What if, the polls are undercounting Harris’ support because, when it comes to being contacted by polling organizations they are not just silent.  They are also downright scared.

Consider the following evidence starting with the way protesters are treated differently at Trump and Harris rallies. There is a reason why you do not see pro-choice or pro-Palestinian advocates at a Trump rally. From the stage, Trump encourages his faithful fans “to knock the crap out of hecklers.”  He has even offered to cover their legal expenses if they are arrested and charged with physical assault. 

In contrast, Harris merely brushes them off as she did when two students began shouting “Christ is King” as she was telling a University of Wisconsin-Lacrosse audience how reversing Roe v. Wade endangered women’s health and lives.  She calmly told the protesters, “I think you’re at the wrong rally.  You must be looking for the smaller one down the street.”  The students surely anticipated the crowd’s disapproval.  However, they also knew their safety was not in danger.

Which brings me to the difference between polling and voting.  When you vote in Florida, an election official hands you a folder containing your ballot.  The folder is numbered, but the ballot is not.  When you separate the two and insert your ballot in the scanning device, the folder is laid aside.  At that point, your name is no longer associated with the scanned ballot and the privacy of your vote is protected.

Not so with polling operations.  When a worker for a polling organization calls you, their source is most often state or local voter registration lists.  And if they have your phone number, they also have your name and address.  More importantly, they seldom identify who they are working for.  And if they do, it is not an easily recognizable polling company such as Gallup.

Which begs a new question, “What are the potential consequences of providing information to a stranger who can then link your candidate preference to personal information?”  Any answer I might suggest pales in comparison to the range of options Donald Trump repeated multiple times this past week he might employ.  Anyone who challenges his authority or even simply disagrees with him is referred to as “the enemy within.” And Trump has said he might employ the National Guard, or if necessary, the U.S. Army to take care of his opponents.  Or drag them before a military tribunal as he threatened to do with Liz Cheney.  Or execute a general like Mark Milley for daring to converse with his Chinese counterpart to alleviate any possible miscalculation by either side during the chaos on January 6, 2021.

Bottom line.  Whenever I receive a call that begins, “Do you have a minute to give your opinion,” I simply hang up the phone.  Do I expect an armed militia will show up at my front door?  No.  But like former FBI director James Comey or his deputy Andrew McCabe, I do wonder if a Trump “Schedule F” (see page 80 of Project 2025) loyalist in the bowels of the IRS building will order my tax returns be audited.  Or whether a toady in the State Department invalidates my passport.  Or a mini-Trump in local government has my house re-assessed.

So, if you are wondering how can the polls possibly be so close, there are three possible answers.  One, there really is a majority of voters who think America would be a better place under authoritarian rule.  Two, changes in demographics and the absence of new pro-Harris voter registrants in the polling samples have skewed the results.  Or three, there is a silent, scared majority who decided it was prudent to just keep their powder dry and speak with their ballots rather than their voices.

For the nation’s sake and future, I am betting it is a combination of the second and third.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP