When trying to solve a problem or understand an event, counter-intuitive thinking requires two things.  First, make sure you are asking the right question.  Second, don’t overlook the obvious.  For a change, I’ll use an example from the world of sports.

Consider Super Bowl LI.  During the three weeks of non-stop pre- and post-game television and radio coverage, pundits of the game felt their bona fide as experts depended on the ability to see things the average fan missed.  Toward this end, they often over-analyzed the situation or focused on something that was largely irrelevant.

Yesterday, the four panelists on ESPN’s Sports Reporters–Mike Lupica, Bob Ryan, Gene Wojciechowski and Manish Mehta–shared their perspectives on the game.  For the most part, the discussion centered on how New England quarterback Tom Brady, at 39 years of age, continues to win his battle with Father Time.  While these so-called experts (sorry, I couldn’t resist) may have chosen the right variable–time, I believe they opted for the wrong unit of measurement.  They should have addressed minutes, not years.

Brady’s performance in the Super Bowl was exceptional but should not have been surprising for the following reasons.  First, he maintains a diet and exercise regimen designed to prolong his career.  Second, even with three playoff appearances, he played less games (15) versus a typical regular season (16) due to the “deflate-gate” four game suspension.  Third, as a result of an improved offensive line, Brady was sacked just 15 times during the 2016 regular season versus 38 times in 2015.

Instead of asking, “Can a 39 year old quarterback still win a Super Bowl,” the question should have been, “How long can a defense stay on the field without running out of gas?”  And the answer was right there in black and white. It’s called the stat sheet.  The Patriots ran 93 offensive plays compared to the the Falcons’ 46.  In terms of time of possession, the Falcon defense was on the field for 40 out of the 63 and a half minutes played including the overtime.  If this had been a basketball game, the Falcon defensive players would have been bent over, hands on knees, trying to catch their breath

I am not a Bill Belichick fan.  Just the opposite.  But it’s time to give credit where credit is due.  Several times, during the second half, I questioned how much time the Patriots took between snaps considering the score at the time.  In hindsight, there was a method in Belichick’s apparent madness.  The Falcons had already demonstrated during the first 30 minutes, if fresh, their defense could outplay New England’s offense. Every second on the field during the second half was time the defense was on its feet, not resting on the bench.

Sometimes, you don’t have to beat up on the opposition.  All you need to do is wear them down and outlast them.  The same can apply to non-sporting venues as well.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP