The situation in Afghanistan is a humanitarian tragedy.  One hopes the Biden administration can minimize the suffering by keeping the Kabul airport open and fast tracking emergency visas for those who may be targeted for assisting American operations for the past 20 years.

As was the case on September 11, America once again fell victim to another failure of imagination.  Yes, it was reasonable to expect U.S. trained and equipped security forces to hold back the Taliban to allow for an orderly evacuation.  But, where was the 10th man, a staple of Israeli decision making?  This process was created following the surprise attack on Yom Kippur, 1973 and can be described as follows (Source: Reddit/Historians).

The Tenth Man strategy says that if nine people agree on a particular course of action, the tenth person must, in the context of the strategy, take a contrary approach so that all alternatives can be considered.

At every meeting of Israel’s national security cabinet there is a designated 10th man (or woman).  That individual’s responsibility is to ask, “What if all of us are wrong?  What will we do if every assumption we are making is incorrect?  What if the opposite was true?”

Furthermore, the current crisis is one more example how two things can be true at the same time.  Yesterday, President Biden made a strong and compelling case for the total withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.  He was right there would never be a good time to do so.  And another 20 years would not change the inevitable outcome.  And he was correct the original mission was not about nation building.  History taught Biden too many nations had tried and failed to achieve the goal of a stable, centralized government in a country based on regional, tribal loyalties.

However, the exit surely could have been better planned and executed.  All that was needed was one person to ask, “What if every assumption we have made is wrong?  What if the Afghan security forces refuse to fight and lay down their arms without firing a shot?”  Not a farfetched possibility.  After all, U.S. troops had witnessed similar behavior by members of the Iraqi regular army and Sadam Hussein’s elite Republican Guard in 2003.  If that lesson had been heeded, the current chaos might have been avoided.

Notwithstanding the above facts, the media has been quick to make other comparisons which defy logic.  Above all are suggestions a small U.S. military footprint in Afghanistan is nothing compared to the numbers of American stationed at several overseas bases since the end of World War II.  This morning Joe Scarborough put up the following data related to the number of U.S. forces deployed around the world.

Japan/50,937
Germany/47,761
South Korea/28,500
Italy/10,922

Afghanistan is NOT Japan, Germany, South Korea or Italy.  To suggest any such similarity is foolish.  NONE of the four nations are currently engaged in a civil war.  The U.S. mission does NOT involve preventing an insurgency.  The U.S. presence is part of a global, geopolitical strategy of MUTUAL cooperation.  Our troops have the support of stable democracies.  Their troops participate in joint exercises with U.S. personnel.  And all have demonstrated they are willing to come to our aid when we were attacked.

Nor, as Scarborough also suggested, is the Afghan situation analogous to the U.S. withdrawal of troops from Syria in November 2019.  If only the Afghan security forces had made a fraction of the effort of the Kurds (pictured) and Syrian resistance forces who were backed up by U.S. special operations forces and air cover in Northern Syria.  They were not just partners, but took the lead when it came to retaking much of the ISIS held territory.  Americans, returning home following deployments to the region, often talked about the commitment and heroism of the Kurds.  Afghan security forces do not deserve to be mentioned in the same breath.

Let me close with a “10th man” observation which many may find unpopular or even distasteful.  That is what a 10th man is supposed to do.  As I watched thousands of Afghans at Hamid Karzai International Airport desperately trying to board planes, risking and in some cases losing their lives to get out of the country, I wondered how different the situation might be today if those same men and women had been equally committed to holding off the Taliban.  In which case, I might feel differently about Biden’s decision.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP