Monthly Archives: June 2019

Random Thoughts on June 6, 2019

There are two “high holidays” in American history, the Fourth of July and D-Day.  One marks the emergence of the United States as a sovereign nation  The other as leader of the free world.  And sadly, the observance of these occasions fades over the years with one exception.  Just as there are milestones of age, e.g. 21st birthdays, or wedding vows, silver and gold anniversaries, we gather on the 25th, 50th or 100th anniversary of these national  wayposts in the annuls of the American narrative to give them the attention they deserve.

These moments are also times for reflection.  Consideration of those famous and those largely unknown who contributed and sacrificed in the pursuit of an ideal or preservation of a way of life.  As I watched the ceremonies yesterday from Portsmouth, England where the invasion to liberate Europe was launched and this morning’s events at the American cemetery at Colleville-sur-Mer overlooking Omaha Beach, as always, I was looking for the angle no one was covering.  What was that one counter-intuitive thing that was right under our nose but slipped our attention?

Today, I tip my hat to presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin who suggested it is easy to celebrate D-Day with the hindsight of the eventual outcome.  And while we have vivid images of the invasion itself from newsreels and movies such as “Saving Private Ryan,” there is no visual documentation of June 5, 1944, which may have been more fateful than the invasion itself.  That night, Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Dwight Eisenhower and the rest of the military planners awaited the impact of their actions unsure whether they would succeed or fail.  As Goodwin recalled on MSNBC yesterday morning.

What strikes me is that we are on the eve, the day before that fascinates me.  We know now from history that D-Day worked.  But all those people, on this day, 75 years ago were living in a sense of dread.  Eleanor Roosevelt said she felt she had a sword hanging over her head.  Winston Churchill, when he was going to sleep on this night, said to his wife, tomorrow morning 20,000 of our men may be dead.  Franklin Roosevelt was so tense that he couldn’t go to sleep…History knows the end but that’s not the moment that really fascinates me.

There it was, the angle I was looking for, not just in 1944, but throughout history.  Did Franklin, Adams and Jefferson toss and turn in their beds the night of July 3, 1776.  If he had lived, would John F. Kennedy have slept the night before Apollo 11 took off from Cape Canaveral on a mission he had set in motion seven years earlier.  Should we be better students, not of history, but of the eve of history?

Which brings me back to the topic du jour, what is the most appropriate way to address Donald Trump’s alleged crimes, abuse of power and violation of his oath of office?  Is Nancy Pelosi currently presiding over the eve of history?  Does the decision to authorize impeachment proceedings keep her up at night, not knowing whether such actions will result in Trump’s removal from office or his re-election in 2020?  Are there lessons from D-Day which could make her decision easier?

Consider the following.  Just as many are anxious to rev up the engine of impeachment sooner rather than later, I am sure there were those who felt any delay in the Normandy invasion was to Hitler’s advantage.  But the political and military leader wanted to make sure they had the army they NEEDED, not as Dick Cheney suggested in the run-up to the second Iraq War, you go with the army you HAVE.  And they picked a day and hour when they believed the weather conditions, though chilly and rain, were best suited for the mission.  Perhaps Pelosi is doing the same, waiting until she has the conditions and the army she needs before launching the inquiry.  If and when she gives a green light to Judiciary Chairman Gerald Nadler and her caucus, should we, like Doris Kearns Goodwin, be more fascinated by what happened on the eve of Nadler’s gaveling the committee to order to begin impeachment hearings or the hearings themselves?

Two more thoughts related to June 6, 1944.  Imagine if cinema depictions of D-Day had ended like the “Sopranos.”  Just as Henry Grace, who played Eisenhower in the 1962 epic “The Longest Day,” announces the forces have reached the French shoreline, the screen fades to black.  The audience let’s out a collective, “NOOOOOO!”  They feel cheated.  I too felt cheated, as this week I began reading the Mueller Report.  Here are just a few examples.

The Trump Campaign showed interest in WikiLeaks’ releases of hacked materials through the summer and fall of 2016.  (four redacted paragraphs including one under the heading “b. Contacts with the Campaign about WikiLeaks”)

Michael Cohen, former executive vice president of the Trump Organization and special counsel to Donald J. Trump, told the (Special Counsel’s) Office that he recalled an incident in which he was in candidate Trump’s office in Trump Tower (redacted).  Cohen further told the Office that, after WikiLeaks’ subsequent release of stolen DNC emails in July 2016, candidate Trump said to Cohen something to the effect of, (redacted).

(In reference to the Trump Tower meeting) The Office spoke to every participant except Veselnitskaya and Trump, Jr., the later of whom declined to be voluntarily interviewed by the Office (redacted).

NOOOOOO!  Don’t leave us hanging.  How did the Campaign show interest in WikiLeaks?  What did Trump say to Cohen? What do you mean Junior declined to be interviewed? Was he subpoenaed?  Did Rod Rosenstein, Matt Whittaker or William Barr at the Department of Justice prohibit Mueller from issuing a subpoena?  Did he issue one and Junior took the Fifth (even though his father proclaimed during the 2016 campaign, “Only guilty people take the Fifth”?

And finally, a word about Trump’s attendance at the commemorative events this morning in France.  To his credit, he stayed on script and the speechwriter should be thanked for the tone and content of his remarks.  But there is a certain irony that not just Trump, but any Republican president would have this honor.  While the GOP claims to be the party of national security, it was Democrats Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman who oversaw the successful preparation and conduct of U.S. participation in World War II.  And to some extent, I had a similar response watching Richard Nixon welcome back the Apollo 11 astronauts instead of Kennedy or Lyndon Johnson.

Perhaps, on such occasions, history would be better served to have the principals or their decedents participate in the ceremonies.  That is why the image of Queen Elizabeth, who volunteered as a mechanic in World War II, was the most compelling figure over the last two days.  She did not need a history book or a speechwriter.  She was there.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

America’s New Welfare Queens

Almost everyone is familiar (or is that FARMiliar) with Grant Wood’s “American Gothic.”  But few are knowledgeable about the story behind the image.  In the artist’s self-commentary about his most famous work, Wood never talks about why the couple in the original (actually his sister Nan and their dentist Dr. Byron McKeeby) appear to be so unhappy.  Maybe it is the place and time, Eldon, Iowa in 1930.  And these farmers are still waiting for Herbert Hoover’s promise of a “chicken in every pot.”  Perhaps, as Nan Wood Graham later confessed, she was somewhat embarrassed to be portrayed as being married to someone twice her age.  Or, as the Cedar Rapids Gazette reported, Iowa farmers did not appreciate being depicted as “pinched, grim-faced, puritanical Bible-thumpers.”

Now a digital photograph rather than oil on beaver wood,  choice of medium is not the only difference between my remake which I call “American Gothic 2019” and Wood’s original.  The first thing you notice is the present day farmer in front of the Dibble House (the structure Wood sketched as the background for his rendition) is smiling despite the fact her rural enterprise has fallen on hard times.  This is due largely to Chinese retaliation for Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imported goods.  As they say in Japan, “SOYanara.”  But unlike her ancestors in Wood’s painting, she is not the least bit worried about where she will get funds to cover her family’s next meal.  After all, she cast a ballot for Donald Trump in 2016 because he warned her and other farm belt voters America was being bankrupted by immigrants and freeloaders who lived off the public dole.  And she has now been rewarded by the beneficiary of that vote by her ability to seek asylum as the latest immigrant to settle in the welfare state.

Twice since imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump has authorized payments to mitigate the impact of his trade war, first for $16 billion and then a second installment of $19 billion dollars.  While at the same time, the proposed FY2020 federal budget includes a $17 billion reduction in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or as most people know it, food stamps.  Upon releasing the Department of Agriculture figures for the coming year, Secretary Sonny Perdue, defended the cuts.

With our national debt soaring to over $22 trillion, we can no longer kick the can down the road. The time to act is now and USDA will actively do its part in reducing federal spending. We are stewards of other people’s money and must be diligent in spending it more carefully than we would our own when it comes to delivering our programs.

Except when Donald Trump authorizes policies and expenditures to mitigate hits to the economy, especially in states on which his election and potential re-election depend.

So the next time a Republican candidate for any office includes a picture of an inner-city (read African American) SNAP recipient in their campaign material or television spot or when they refer to “welfare queens” at fundraisers when they believe they are not being recorded, just remember the image in “American Gothic 2019.”  And remind them the newest path to becoming “welfare state royalty” is the Trump-induced, precipitous drop in the price of “silver queen” hybrid corn.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Mnuchin v. Miller

This is not about an actual court case.  Although, maybe it should be.  It is just one more example of how the Trump administration is held to a different judicial standard without fear of retribution by the nation’s chief law enforcement official, their own private pimp, Attorney General William Barr.  For those that find this description of Barr beyond the pale,  let me remind you the term “pimp” refers to “a man who controls prostitutes  and arranges clients for them, taking a percentage of their earnings in return.”  And the Oxford English Dictionary now includes the following definition of “prostitute.”

A person who misuses their talents or behaves unworthily for personal or financial gain.

Barr may not control specific members of the Trump administration who exhibit such behavior, but he certainly regulates the environment in which they operate.  It is no different than your average street-wise flesh-peddler warning those who represent a danger to his harem, “Don’t you dare mess with my bitches!”

The Miller in the title is New York Times reporter Judith Miller who was jailed in July 2008 when she defied U.S. District Judge Thomas Hogan’s order to give up the name of a source who contributed to her stories on the outing of CIA-operative Valerie Plame.  For those with short memories, Plame’s position within the U.S. intelligence service was divulged when her husband and former U.S. Ambassador Joe Wilson questioned the evidence which was the basis for George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq, supposedly preempting Sadam Hussein’s use of weapons of mass destruction.  Although there were arguments that the court order was a threat to First Amendment protection of freedom of the press, the prosecutor in the case Patrick Fitzgerald, referencing the Watergate tapes and Truman’s attempted seizure of steel mills during the Korean Conflict, declared, “In the end, the law must be obeyed.

Which brings us to Steve Mnuchin who, on May 8, told chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Richard Neal he had instructed the IRS not to turn over Donald Trump’s tax returns.  This order goes against the unambiguous language in Section 6103 of the tax code which states the Treasury Department “SHALL furnish” the returns of any federal official “upon written request,” which Neal provided.   Since Mnuchin has adopted Trumpese as his native tongue, he claims there is wiggle room in the statutory language and is awaiting a legal opinion from (drum roll) the Justice Department.  That’s right.  According to Mnuchin, “Chairman Neal you’ve been warned.  You won’t just have me to deal with.  You’ll have to answer to my pimp Bill Barr.  And he is one bad mother.”

In other words, William Barr, in his own way has bcome the de facto SOLICITOR GENERAL as opposed to his de jure position of attorney general.  And sadly, there is no Patrick Fitzgerald to remind him, “In the end, the law must be obeyed.” Or a Judge Hogan who will sentence Mnuchin to jail, as he did with Judith Miller, until he complies with the law.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

BeCOZ

There is a reason I chose “Considerable all the possibilities” as the tag-line for this blog.  I wanted to remind readers that creativity and counter-intuitive thinking are more perspirational than inspirational.  Edward de Bono, the individual who coined the phrase lateral thinking, cautions us not to stop when we come up with an ADEQUATE solution.  We should always be looking for the next right answer.  And this morning, I had to remind myself of de Bono’s wisdom.

For the past week, I have made the argument there are creative alternatives to impeaching Donald Trump.  However, the first and most fundamental skill of creative people is the ability to suspend judgment.  At my former training company ImagineIt Today, we had our clients do the following exercise.  Regardless of the issue, make a list of assumptions on which you normally base a decision or action.  Then ask yourself, “What if I am wrong?”   We would then go through the assumptions, one by one, and consider what new avenues of exploration opened up if the opposite was true.

So, let’s consider two assumptions which suggest impeaching Trump is a bad idea.  Number one.  Two-thirds of the Senate will never vote to convict him.  I will admit that is a pretty high bar to navigate.  But not as high as (drum roll) a conviction by a jury in a criminal trial.  Any prosecutor would sacrifice major parts of his or her anatomy if all they needed to do was convince eight people out of twelve they had made their case beyond a reasonable doubt.

A corollary to this assumption is that Trump’s loyal followers will never turn on him.  He is too popular among his base.  Was that not the conventional wisdom when Bill Cosby was first accused of drugging and sexually violating several women.  In fact, Cosby’s defense team seemed more interested in swaying public opinion than the jury during the comedian and television icon’s retrial in 2018.  According to the Boston Globe:

They’re hitting at (Cosby accuser Andrea) Constand’s credibility in the media with attacks that Judge Steven O’Neill is deeming too prejudicial or irrelevant for court, and they’re holding daily press briefings portraying Cosby as the victim of an overzealous prosecutor and an unjust legal system.

Sound familiar?  The judge cannot possibly be an honest broker.  The legal system is rigged.  The prosecutors, trying to make a name for themselves, are out to get me.  Yet, by presentation of the facts, prosecutors convinced most Americans, and more importantly a jury, “America’s Dad” was a violent sexual predator.  And unlike the case with O. J. Simpson, there was little, if any, difference of opinion along racial lines.  African-Americans such as actor Sidney Poitier were among those who said he was “terribly disgusted by what Bill Cosby has done.”

I know, the first time Cosby was tried on these charges, the judge declared a mistrial due to a deadlocked jury.  But even in this case, there were only two holdouts.  In other words, 83.3 percent of the panel voted to convict based on the evidence.  Even in Kellyanne Conway’s world of alternative facts, 83+ percent is still more than two-thirds.

Assumption number two.  Impeachment without conviction will bolster Trump’s chances of re-election in 2020.  However, there is the possibility the opposite is also true in this case.  Again, Bill Cosby’s experience makes the point.  Even though the first trial ended without resolution, a large majority of Americans believed justice had not been served.  One has to consider whether prosecutors took this into account when they decided to re-try the case.

If the Senate does not convict, one can argue the 2020 election is the equivalent of a re-trial.  And this time, you don’t need a 67 percent super majority to remove Trump from office.  All you need is 271 electors (51 percent).  And imagine, the difference in news coverage throughout 2020.  Instead of images of an empty stage while waiting for Trump’s next campaign appearance, the airways would be flooded with day after day of hearings and presentation of Trump’s alleged crimes.  Congress, not Trump, would control the narrative.

Equally important, if the Senate votes not to convict, there could be positive implications for down-ballot races in 2020.  If the evidence is as compelling as many Democrats believe it is, they should dare their Republican colleagues to vote against conviction.   Imagine how Democratic challengers could use that vote against Trump’s Senate enablers.  Consider the following television or radio spot to promote straight ticket voting

You heard the witnesses.  You saw the evidence.  Sending Donald Trump back to Trump Tower or Mar-a-Lago permanently is not enough.  I know you believe in the rule of law and violators need to be held accountable.  So do I.  Sadly, my opponent NAME, when he/she had the chance, stuck his/her head in the sand and voted party and personal interest over country.  You deserve better.

And that is why we need to have faith in a jury of 150+ million of our peers.  Following Cosby’s conviction, the jury issued a statement saying, “Our decision was not influenced in any way by factors other than what was seen and heard in the courtroom.” (NBC Today Show/April 30, 2018)  And there will be hours of video of House Judiciary Committee testimony to run and re-run continuously during the 2020 election cycle to remind voters of Trumps violations of his oath of office, abuse of power and criminal activity.

While we’re at it, there is one more assumption we need to challenge.  Trump will not go quietly.  No doubt that is true, but only in a literal sense.  There is a difference between a barrage of whining Tweets and voluntarily stepping down.  The overwhelming consensus among legal experts is Trump’s ability to withhold evidence during the impeachment process, including his financial records, and claim executive privilege will no longer be an issue.  And while Trump claims he is a fighter, time and time again he has proven otherwise, choosing to settle court cases rather than be subjected to public scrutiny.  Just ask Stormy Daniels, the board of directors of the Trump Foundation or alumni of Trump University.  Before the Watergate hearings, no one imagined Richard Nixon would “settle” by resigning.  And he had less to hide than the current incumbent.

Bottom line?  There are no clear right or wrong choices.  Just different options.  And that is what makes this situation both fascinating and frustrating.  And one about which historians and political strategists will argue and write about for decades to come.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP