Breaking News, Saturday Morning, March 3, 2018:

• Canada “flabbergasted’ by Trump’s tariff  proposal (Washington Post)
• Trump’s Tariffs Stoke Fears That Trade War Will “Kill” U.S. Jobs (New York Times)
• Trump risks more than a trade war by targeting China (CNN.com)
• EU Threatens Iconic U.S. Brands After Trump Opens Door to Trade War (Bloomberg.com)

Stick with me on this one folks.  The logical path for this argument is non-linear.  The reason I share these headlines is to show the true danger of actual FAKE NEWS is when the supposed legitimate press responds to it.

Raise your hand if you really think Donald J. Trump is ever going to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.  I know.  You saw him say it last Thursday  during a televised Trump infomercial with a roomful of industry executives.  Remember!  This is the same Donald Trump who said ON TV he would sign a clean DACA bill.  This is the same Donald Trump who told a bi-partisan group of legislators ON TV he thought Dianne Feinstein’s assault weapons ban should be included in a comprehensive gun safety proposal and the government need not worry about due process before confiscating the guns of those who were a potential danger to themselves and others.  That is, until he had an UNTELEVISED dinner with NRA representatives the same evening.  (Too bad none of the White House press corps asked the white-liar-in chief Sarah Huckabee Sanders why THAT “listening session” was held behind closed doors.)

Yes, the tariff ANNOUNCEMENT was REAL, but I am willing to bet the farm (which by the way will be worth much less if there ARE tariffs and all the importers of U.S. grown grain retaliate) the IMPOSITION of tariffs is FAKE.  How do I know this?  Because this morning I Googled the major news outlets in Pittsburgh, PA and Wheeling, WV to see if they shared the national media’s concern about the consequences of a tariff-induced trade war.  The front pages of the newspapers and web-sites were devoid of any news or commentary about the potential negative impacts of proposed tariffs.

Why, you ask, did I choose these two markets?  Because they are in the closest vicinity to Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District which as you are probably aware is holding a special election on March 13 to fill the seat vacated by Tim Murphy.  “Retired” congressman Murphy is one in a growing parade of fallen evangelical, family values Republicans who resigned when it was reported this pro-life zealot urged a woman with whom he had an extra-marital affair to get an abortion.  Instead of referring to Representatives as being members of the “lower chamber” maybe it’s time we call that wing of the U.S. Capitol the “Glass House.”

A few facts about the PA 18th.  Some have been widely reported such as the fact Trump carried the district by 19 points in 2016.  And, despite the injection of millions of dollars to bolster the campaign of Republican Rick Saccone, the most recent polls suggest the contest is within the margin of error.  Fortunately, trying to label his opponent Connor Lamb as a Pelosi Democrat and misrepresenting Lamb’s position on policy issues (Lamb is decidedly more conservative than your garden variety Democrat) has fallen on deaf ears.  To date, none of these tactics have reversed the closeness of the contest.

But wait, there is one thing on which the press has not focused with one major exception, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  In a Friday article titled, “Trump tariff may also protect GOP from competition in southwestern Pennsylvania,” Chris Potter writes:

Metals manufacturing has deep economic and historical ties in southwestern Pennsylvania, including swaths of the 18th District itself. The AFL-CIO estimates that the district contains some 17,000 voters who are either steelworkers or related to them. Unions are key to Democratic hopes of winning an upset in the district, which backed Mr. Trump by roughly 20 percent in 2016.

Potter goes on to explain why unions may make the difference in the balloting and Saccone’s potential problem with this scenario.

As a state legislator, Mr. Saccone has often been at odds with organized labor on issues like paying a “prevailing wage” on infrastructure projects, and union leaders, at least, are bent on defeating him.

If you doubt the political influence of steelworkers in the Keystone State, just listened to Democratic Senator Bob Casey.  “I commend the president for announcing his intent to take action to protect our steelworkers from countries, like China, that cheat on trade.”

So how do you ameliorate Saccone’s anti-union history.  Not surprisingly, Trump has scheduled a trip to southwestern Pennsylvania prior to the election.  You can already hear his spiel.  “I alone am standing up for you.  Obama did nothing.  You saw me on TV.  You saw me take on China when no one else would.  All of my advisors told me not to do this.  They care about their port folios.  I care about the threatened steelworkers here in Pennsylvania.  And so does Rick Saccone.”

Forget some economists say a trade war with the attendant increase in goods and services would entirely wipe out the consumer buying power promised under the 2017 tax cut legislation.  Forget the 400+ point drop in the Dow Index following the tariff announcement which translated into a half trillion dollar decrease in wealth in four hours.  Forget the lost jobs which would result from a global trade war.  Forget, American protectionism will drive our traditional trading partners to seek new alliances with countries like China or even Russia.  But, as I’ve suggested, these worse case scenarios will not happen.  After March 13th, Trump will announce the threat of tariffs brought the world in line (just like he claims the threat of imposing Congressional sanctions for election meddling has deterred future Russian interference).  Trump will take his ball and go home.  And the media will once again be looking around and wondering what just happened.

So what is the best case scenario?  More and more 2016 voters realize their 21st-century Huey Long is willing to risk their jobs and savings to avoid personal embarrassment if the Pennsylvania 18th District flips from red to blue.  It will be interesting to see if the same voters who forgive Trump on character issues “because I’m doing better economically” have a change of heart when the latter is no longer true.

In an iconic 1996 Madison Avenue advertising campaign, a major cosmetics company flooded the airwaves and magazines with the following, “Promise her anything but give her Arpège!”  Mr. Fifth Avenue is hoping the same sales pitch works a week from Tuesday.  “Promise them anything…”  But there is no Arpège.  When they realize they were stiffed, it will be too late.  Oh, they’ll smell the aroma, but it won’t be perfume.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP