Category Archives: Random Thoughts

UPDATE/Bad Ad Timing

Random Thoughts

One of the sponsors of NBC’s presentation of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament was Chubb Insurance.  During the broadcast they ran a spot which included the following:

In this high stakes, high pressure world, we help protect our clients from risk. And always keep our eye on the ball.  Chubb, insurance that protects when it matters most.

If you do not believe them, just ask Donald J. Trump.  On Friday, Trump’s lawyers announced they had secured a bond from an entity called “Federal Insurance Company” for the $83.3 million awarded to E. Jean Carroll in the second defamation trial.  However, New York Daily News journalist Molly Crane-Newman reported:

The entity through which Trump secured the bond is a member of the Chubb Group, a property and casualty insurance giant whose CEO, Evan Greenberg, he tapped to serve on his presidential trade policy advisory committee in 2018.

When reporters asked representatives of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York if they knew the source of the funds for the Chubb bond, they said they were not privy to that information.  For argument’s sake, let’s assume Evan Greenberg used existing Chubb assets to cover the $83.3 million dollars.  In that case, we can be sure Donald Trump did not have what Chubb calls their “Elite V” protection for director and officers liability.  How do I know that.? The 20-page document which explains the policy’s benefits includes the following definition of bail bond costs.

3. Definitions/Subsection 3.2

Bail Bond Costs mean the reasonable premium (not including any collateral) for a bond or other financial instrument to guarantee an Insured Person’s contingent obligation for bail or equivalent in any jurisdiction required by a court in respect of any Claim. The sub-limit of liability for Bail Bond Costs is 10% of the Limit of Liability.

Subsection 3.35 defines Limit of Liability as “the amount stated in Item 3 of the Insurance Policy.”

In other words, Chubb and Trump’s good friend Evan Greenberg violated two corporate rules.  First, they covered the entire bond, not just the “reasonable premium.”  Second, for them to put down $83.3 million, under the rules, Trump must have a policy with a “limit of liability” of (drum roll) $833 million dollars. [NOTE:  There is no truth to the rumor Barack Obama went on Fox News and demanded Trump release his “long-form policy.”]

Will Chubb also buy time during cable coverage of the election interference and business fraud case involving hush money payments to Stormy Daniels?  If so, I suggest, in the interest of truth in advertising, Chubb revise its March 9, 2024 advertisement as follows.

If you are a former U.S. president who appointed our CEO to a White House advisory board, regardless of our internal procedures and regulations, we will bail you out.  And always make sure you can make your morning tee-off time instead of holding a fire sale of your assets.  Chubb, insurance that protects Donald Trump anytime our CEO says so.

Disclaimer: This service is not available to any other policy holder so don’t ask.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

SOTU Random Thoughts

Politics, Random Thoughts

I just received a phone call from my 101 year-old mother.  “Did you see the president last night?”  I had just spent two days with her during which she once again reminded me of my obligation to her.  “If Trump wins and you decide to leave the country, you know you have to take me with you.”  I joked, “That’s why I’m doing everything I can to make sure Biden wins.” This morning, I wondered if someone had switched out her Ambien for some “happy pill.”  So goes my mother, so goes America.

After several weeks of the most depressing correspondence and phone calls with family, friends and colleagues, I feel no need this morning to talk anyone off the ledge.  Joe Biden did that for all of us last night.  Instead, with the extensive coverage of the State of the Union address, I decided to look for those things that were not mentioned.  Here are my six takeaways to add to the general euphoria.

THE PRESIDENT AND THE TRAMP

The one thing Mom did not like about the broadcast was the number of times they showed Marjorie Taylor Greene.  She wondered why they promote her.  This was the one “off the ledge” moment in our discussion.  I told her I thought they did not show her or the other MAGA lemmings enough.  Biden was making contrasts in policy, but he also talked about decency and playing by the rules.  I want MTG to be the face of Donald Trump’s MAGA party.  She is uncivil, she is dishonest and she does not play by the rules including House rules which forbid partisan attire.  More importantly, she will remind voters that it is MTG and her MAGA colleagues who have blocked legislation that deals with the border, national security, codifying Roe v. Wade and inflation.  That she would rather pursue impeachments without evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors for political theater than do the people’s business.  She is a walking billboard why the MAGA party has proved it cannot govern and why we must return the majority and speakership to the Democrats.

TLAIB OR NOT TLAIB

Photos: Republicans Wear Pins Honoring Laken Riley at Joe Biden's State of the UnionLast week, Representative Rashida Tlaib encouraged Michigan voters to send Joe Biden a message on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.  The punditry was awash with the implications for the November election if Muslin-Americans and Palestinian sympathizers stayed home.  Did Joe Biden or Michigan Governor Gretchen Witmer tell those voters, “We don’t need you,” a la Trump’s response to Haley supporters or Kari Lake’s 2022 rejection of McCain Republicans.  Many Democrats, knowing that a Biden win in Michigan was a foregone conclusion, accepted those voters’ chose as an appropriate opportunity to signal their concern for family and friends living in the war zone.  Last night she and other members of the Democratic conference held up signs that said  “Lasting Ceasefire Now” and “Stop Sending Bombs.”  Some may have been offended, but what better place than Congress to generate an actual policy debate.  Compare that to Congressman Troy Nehls (R-TX) who wore a tee-shirt under his jacket with the Trump mug shot and the words, “Never Surrender!”

Where was Congresswoman Tlaib following Biden’s address?  Did she walk out of the chamber like so many disgruntled (and hopefully embarrassed) members on the other side of the aisle?  No, as this picture shows, she is standing behind the president (literally).  She had to know there would be video and images of her with Biden.  The message.  We may still be unhappy, but this is someone who at least is trying to avoid a humanitarian crisis as evidenced by his announcement of the makeshift port to speed delivery of food and other necessities to Palestinian civilians.  On a night when Biden made the election about clear choices, I have no doubt Tlaib, given the alternative of a second Trump administration, will encourage her constituents to make the right choice.  (For the record, Representative Ilhan Omar encouraged a similar protest in the Minnesota primary though she endorsed Biden the day after he officially announced he was running for reelection.)

THE NASCAR SOTU

The overnight TV ratings for last night’s State of the Union are not yet available, but I predict the total may top Biden’s two previous addresses.  In 2022, over 38 million viewers tuned in.  Last year that number declined to 27.3 million.  The forthcoming number to watch is the Fox News viewership.  For weeks, right wing media promised their viewers a NASCAR race with Joe Biden driving a dilapidated late model vehicle which would be involved in multiple car wrecks.  Hopefully, the promotion worked. The only car wrecks were those occasions when Speaker Mike Johnson had to decide if stopping fentanyl at the board was worth a standing ovation (he chose NO) or every time Republican senators and representatives had their heads bowed in shame when Biden reminded them they were on the wrong side of virtually every issue and history.

BAD AD TIMING

This morning the Make America Great Again super PAC ran an ad titled “Jugular” on MSNBC, CNN, Fox NEWS and Newsmax.  It shows the president stumbling on the stairs up to Air Force One, verbal gaffes and asks the question, “Can Joe Biden survive until 2029?”  That might have played well a month ago, but not the morning after the State of the Union which produced the following headlines.

~Fiery Biden takes on GOP, makes case for second term (Washington Post)
~A Forceful Biden Takes On Trump and His Own Doubters (New York Times)
~State of the Union Shows There’s Life in the Old Boy Yet (Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal)
~Biden Roars on Big Night, Faces Down Critics (Drudge Report)
~He Nailed It (GOP Strategist Sarah Longwell/CNN)

Noonan’s op-ed was not just a kudos on Biden’s performance.  It was a change of heart.  On February 22, she wrote:

A good thing for the president: If he does a perfectly adequate job, the press will be inclined to call it brilliant. Expectations are low. There’s a politesse about State of the Union coverage, nobody wants to pounce. The media have been slapped around recently for taking notice of Mr. Biden’s age after three years of ignoring it.

Bad news: People won’t be impressed if anchors call it brilliant, because our media world is all broken up in pieces and anchors speak to mere shards. And most Americans aren’t watching. Viewership declines each year.

This morning she revised her assessment.

The great question the past month was about his persona. Would he walk in shakily? When he was done, would we be using words like old, frail, incapable, embarrassing? We won’t. People will say that guy has a lot of fight in him. He was wide awake, seemed to be relishing the moment, did not seem to tire much, and in fact improved as the speech moved along.

There are 10 to 13 percent undecided voters if the polls are accurate.  As you know, I have also argued Trump’s 45 percent is a ceiling.  Biden’s 43 percent is a floor.  Prior to last night’s speech, a March 6 Emerson poll now has Biden at +2.  The March 3 Morning Consult survey now has Biden +1.  Even in those polls where Biden still trails, most of which were completed before the end of February, the contest in now within the margin of error. 

Historically, an incumbent running for a second term gets a bump from their election year SOTU address.  Bill Clinton did in 1996 as did Barack Obama in 2012.  There was a lot of Democratic handwringing back then as the polls showed both behind to their opponents.  In the post-SOTU polls, the actual numbers are noise.  The trends are the signal.

YOU CALL THAT LEADERSHIP?

House Speaker Mike Johnson gave his team a pep talk at a closed-door meeting of the GOP conference the day before the SOTU.  He told his colleagues:

Decorum is the order of the day.  We don’t need to be shrill, you know, we got to avoid that. We need to base things upon policy, upon facts, upon reality of situations. Let them do the gaslighting, let them do the blaming.

How did that work out, Mikey?  Even when he signaled for rowdy GOP members to tamp it down, they did not respond.  If Johnson’s world view is what he says it is, I guess it was God’s plan for there to be such an ineffective speaker of the house to remind us what true leadership looks like.

I WISH I COULD DO THAT

I wonder how many people stayed tune to watch Biden try to leave the House chamber.  Even when Speaker Johnson ordered the lights dimmed, the celebration did not end.  Joe Scarborough compared it to football players lingering in the locker room after a Super Bowl victory.  You don’t want to lose that great feeling.  There was one moment, however, where I found myself admiring Joe Biden for his physical ability.

An African-American, female representative wanted to take a selfie with the president.  She was so nervous her hand was shaking.  Biden took her hand and steadied the cell phone.  I suffer from a familial tremor.  When I saw that I thought, “Hell, I’m seven years younger and I couldn’t do that.”  And then I remembered, that was the perfect metaphor for “the steady hand at the helm” he promised in 2020 and will again this election cycle.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

 

OPENAIheimer

Culture, Random Thoughts

[NOTE: The best way NOT to get my thoughts on a subject is to identify a topic and say, “You need to write about this.”  In most cases, the seed of a specific post comes from a personal discussion with friend or former colleague.  Then, something that emerges during the course of that conversation suggests a need for a deeper dive into the subject matter.  Or, in the case of today’s topic, my reaction to the issue under consideration is, “Where have I seen or heard this before?”]

For the past couple of days, I had a totally unrelated conversation with a long time mentor and friend about the importance of the humanities as part of a well-rounded education.  He asked my thoughts about how the humanities program at his alma mater might engage students in the STEM disciplines with the goal of helping them appreciate the value of literature, art and philosophy and their relevance to their career aspirations.  Knowing his affinity for the “Socratic method” of teaching, I was reminded of a PBS program (1977-81) called, “Steve Allen’s Meeting of Minds.”  For each episode, Allen cast an ensemble of actors to portray famous figures from the past such as Plato, Marie Antoinette, Martin Luther, Charles Darwin, and Catherine the Great.  The content consisted of a largely scripted conversation in which each opined about a current topic from their own historical perspective.

I suggested the university might revive this format as part of a series of seminars open to all students regardless of major.  I then asked ChatGPT to create a sample of what the script my look like.  “Create a dialogue between Edmond Burke, Thomas Paine and Machiavelli.”  And it did with Burke setting the stage.

Good evening, gentlemen. What an intriguing gathering we have here: the advocate of conservatism, the champion of revolution, and the pragmatist of power.

My friend responded with the following email which focused more on my use of ChatGPT than the content it generated.

BEYOND BELIEF!
A real challenge going forward!

To which I replied:

It is no coincidence that the emergence of AI should come at the same time as “Oppenheimer.”  Hopefully, we learned a lesson about the benefits and risks of technology from Einstein and Oppenheimer.  Though I doubt it.

My friend is not one to let me off so easily.  He came back with:

Ironically, we (referring to himself and his wife) just watched it, ending just 10 minutes ago, with very interesting observations from her.
Neither of you were witness to VJ Day!
However, no use of nuclear weapons since that fateful day!

The debate was afoot.  The following is an edited, expanded version of my next email about the perceived connection between the emergence of readily available artificial intelligence in the form of Open AI and a movie about the birth of nuclear warfare.

First, I wanted to correct the record.  I wondered if my friend assumed that I thought the decision to use atomic weapons to bring a quicker end to World War II was a mistake.  If you have read my book on the creative process, you would know I believe there is no such thing as a bad decision.  The outcome and long-term consequences of the decision may not be what we hoped for,  but at the time and circumstances under which the decision was made, it was not wrong.

What I find hard to believe, in hindsight, is that nobody, even as the Enola Gay took off from North Field in the Mariana Islands, asked the question, “What do we need to do on day one after Japan surrendered to ensure that this threat to humanity is properly managed?”  Especially, since they had to know Russia or someone else would master the technology to create their own bomb.

You might argue winning the war was such a priority, no one had time to consider what comes next.  But another situation in the exact same time period tells us that did not have to be the case.  Consider the almost immediate response to stabilize Western Europe after Germany’s surrender.  In 1947, Secretary of State George C. Marshall outlined what would become known as the Marshall Plan, authorized with passage of the Economic Cooperation Act of 1948.  Economic distress in Europe post-World War I was a major factor in Hitler’s rise to power.  The United States was determined to make sure that environment was not recreated after the Nazi defeat.

What’s more, the Western allies recognized there needed to be a credible deterrent to discourage future efforts by Germany or the Soviet Union to annex territory as Hitler did in Austria and Czechoslovakia.  The groundwork was laid by Great Britain and France with the Treaty of Dunkirk in March 1947,  The March 1948 Treaty of Brussels expanded the mutual assistance pact to include the Benelux nations.  The February 1948 communist coup d’état in Czechoslovakia became the catalyst for the establishment of NATO with the U.S. and Canada as members in April 1949.

From watching the movie about his life, one could contend Robert Oppenheimer was a visionary in the same mold as Marshall.  He knew what he created and the long-term dangers of an arms race.  His warning went unheeded.  The U.S. and other nuclear powers waited until 1968, 23 years after the wartime use of atomic weapons, to sign a nuclear proliferation treaty.  By then the genie was already out of the bottle.  Introspection about the estimated civilians who died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, even if justified from a military perspective, should have raised moral questions about “what next” to preempt or at least temper a multi-national nuclear arms race.

Should we not be asking those exact questions with the emergence of artificial intelligence?  Or, are we going to wait until AI produces some devastating outcome before we have mechanisms to manage its constructive use, potential benefits and unimagined dangers?

For what it’s worth.
Dr.  ESP

Random Thoughts 2/8/24

Random Thoughts

You are probably getting tired of my repeating a favorite quote from Edward R. Murrow.  “The obscure we see eventually.  The completely obvious, it seems take longer.”  This adage. however, is more apt than ever in the past 48 hours.

NOT ROCKET JUSTICE

It is 10:03 am on February 8, 2024.  The U.S. Supreme Court has just begun oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, by which Donald Trump is asking the Court to overturn the ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court making him ineligible to be on the state’s primary ballot for having engaged in an insurrection in accordance with Amendment 14, Section 3 of the Constitution.  This morning, there was a lot of handwringing by legal scholars and political pundits about the outcome, but equally important, the impact on a Supreme Court that has lost favor with an increasing majority of Americans. 

University of Alabama law professor Joyce Vance explained the Court will likely further alienate half the population regardless of which course they choose.  Referring to removing Trump from the Colorado ballot and likely other states, she said, “You’re damned if you do; damned if you don’t.  In these cases, your best bet is to do the right thing.”  

But sometime RIGHT can also be EXPEDIANT.  There is, I believe, a simple solution.  Although the justices are hearing oral arguments today, I am sure they are already well versed in both sides’ claims and could issue an opinion this afternoon.  But I suggest they wait until Wednesday and give the nation a Valentine.  Here is why.

The 11th District Court of Appeals, which unanimously ruled Trump has no immunity as a citizen to criminal prosecution, gave Trump’s legal counsel until Monday to file an appeal to the Supreme Court.  No doubt “last minute Donald” will have his attorney’s file the appeal at 4:59 pm on 4/12.  The Supremes will likely give Jack Smith the same five days to respond.  The already completed appeal will be filed at 10:00 am on 2/13.  The justices will take the rest of Tuesday to have clerks review the filings for any surprises and to prepare a final draft of the Colorado decision.

On 2/14 the Supreme Court announces it has made two decisions.  In the case of Trump v. Anderson, they rule in Trump’s favor on a technicality which I have always said is a hurdle. Lacking a conviction of engaging in or providing aid and comfort to an insurrection, the Court unanimously rules the Amendment 14-3 is not self executing.  However, the Court does believe that the American public has a right to know if a candidate has conspired to overthrow a fair and secure election of the nation’s chief executive.  Therefore, the Court, based on the unimpeachable opinion issued by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, denies certiorari in the immunity case.  Furthermore, the original stay in this case is permanently lifted and Judge Tanya Chutkan is authorized to proceed with scheduling and conducting the United States v. Trump trial with all deliberate speed.

Happy Valentines Day!  Here is half of a candy “I LUV U” heart for everyone.

THE GHOST OF SADDAM HUSSEIM

This morning, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass laid out Iran’s motives for backing and funding numerous terrorist militias in the Middle East.  Haass claimed the Israel/Hamas conflict offered a window for Iran to solidify its influence in several Middle East countries including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.  The broadcast also included an interview with Kurdistan prime minister Masrour Barzani who feared if the Iran government forces a U.S. retreat from the region, the Kurds, who have been an American ally in the fight against ISIS, will pay the price.

If only we had a nation that could counterbalance Iran’s position in the region.  Oh wait!  We did!  It was Iraq until George W. Bush and Dick Cheney preemptively overthrew the government on false pretenses.  And we, as well as our Kurdish allies, are stilling paying the price.

ROTARY FIRING SQUAD

In a recent blog, I mentioned that, at one time, I was a member of my local Rotary Club along with Congressman Aaron Bean (R-FL 4).  At the heart of membership is the motto “Service Above Self” and the Rotary Four Way Test.

  1. Is it the TRUTH?
  2. Is it FAIR to all concerned?
  3. Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?
  4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?

Too bad Aaron does not believe the Four Way Test applies to his service in the House of Representatives.  He supports Trump and “the big lie.”  In August 2023, the Jacksonville NBC affiliate reported Bean called Trump’s indictments unfair.  He is quoted as saying, “We always took pride in that there was a blind justice in our country, but it appears that Lady Justice now is peeking from her blindfold, and checking, what’s the letter behind your name before I take, I seek justice?” If justice was blind, Trump would have been treated exactly like Reality Winner, the NSA translator who spent four years in prison for leaking a single document. So much for the TRUTH.

On Tuesday, he voted to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas although the resolution drafted by Majorie Taylor Greene identifies no high crimes or misdemeanors as required by the U.S. Constitution.  When someone does not play by the rules, how FAIR is that?

Finally. this week he joined House Speaker Mike Johnson and an overwhelming majority of GOP senators and representatives who killed a bipartisan national security bill, despite support by the Border Patrol Union.  Why?  Because Joe Biden and Democrats might get some credit for addressing the issue.  And that would hurt Trump’s chances of re-election.  I guess Aaron thinks the ALL in the four-way test is not Americans who say immigration is a major concern, Ukrainians who are fighting to save their democracy, Israelis trying to crush Hamas, humanitarian aid to innocent Palestinians in Gaza or our Pacific allies who face a growing military threat from China and North Korea.  In this case, Aaron’s definition of ALL is Donald Trump and his standing in his own political party.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

The Answer to Some of Your Questions Is…

Random Thoughts

Don Ohlmeyer, former NBC president and the original producer of Monday Night Football, when asked to explain irrational choices in business, sports and politics, wisely opined, “The answer to all your questions is…MONEY.” Consider the opening week of the college football season when second tier college teams travel to Power Five Conference stadiums to be served up as human sacrifices.  Just this year, in return for a $1.5 million payday, Miami University (Oxford, OH) jetted to South Florida to be on the short-end of a 38-3 shellacking by the University of Miami.

This past week proved Ohlmeyer’s maxim to be less iron-clad than I once believed.  Two events, Hamas’ terrorist attack against Israel and the congressional logjam resulting from the inability of Republicans to elect a House Speaker had little to do with money.  If not money, what is the primary factor which explains these events?  In both cases, the answer is…GERRYMANDERING.

I’ll begin with Hamas.  Comedian Dana Gould opens his “I Know It’s Wrong” album with a routine in which he claims anything, in the right context, can be funny.  You can feel the audience’s tension when he announces he will prove his point with three jokes.  One about AIDS.  One about rape.  And one about 9/11.  It is the third topic which illuminates the horror of 10/7/23 on the Gaza border.

I think my favorite part of 9/11 (pause as the audience laughs nervously) was the Muslim terrorists when they went to Muslim heaven, which we all know isn’t true.  They can’t be in Muslim heaven because they’re in Christian hell.  Unless they go back and forth which you can do because they’re both pretend.

~Dana Gould/I Know It’s Wrong

Exactly!  Muslim extremists who self-associate with one of the world’s three major religions have gerrymandered heaven.  In the territorial afterlife they control, the greatest rewards come from jihad and martyrdom. Likewise, many Christian fundamentalists have walled off their heavenly enclave, depriving entry to those who do not share their beliefs or deviate from their standards of behavior. As we learn over and over again, apartheid applied to an imaginary afterlife does little to support the prospects for peace and amity in this one.

Which brings me to the more traditional definition of gerrymandering, manipulating the boundaries of legislative districts to either create safe seats for the party in power or dilute representation of various classes of voters, both of which give disproportional weight to a percentage of the electorate. Perhaps the best example is my home state of Florida where the GOP holds 20 of 28 congressional seats although party affiliation is relatively even (GOP 36.35 percent versus Democrats 34.48 percent.)  Keep in mind the state legislature originally approved a somewhat more equitable map which Governor Ron DeSantis vetoed and then arm-twisted the legislature to approve his version.

However, as is so often said, be careful what you wish for.  Florida’s 2022 redistricting assured Matt Gaitz a safe seat which freed him up to be the chaos agent on display during the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  The same is true of the other seven firebrands who sealed McCarthy’s fate.  This is what happens when a representative no longer needs the backing of House leadership to support his or her reelection.

In other words, while the Republican Party thought gerrymandering would be the path to electoral heaven, they now find themselves corralled behind the Gaitz of hell.  Unlike the 9/11 terrorists, the GOP can actually go back and forth between the benefits and costs of gerrymandering because both are real.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP