This morning’s New York Times included a guest essay by retired marine general and former commander of the U.S. Central Command Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr. In “Iran Got Trump All Wrong,” McKenzie lauds Donald Trump’s use of U.S. military power as an effective tool for tempering the influence and geopolitical agenda of the Iranian Islamic state in the Middle East. In the second paragraph he writes:
The president is the unique advantage we have in the region. For the first time in decades, American military power in the Middle East deployed against Iran is coupled with a commander in chief who isn’t afraid to use it.
Yet, it is McKenzie’s following statement, a justification of the current deployment of that power, that betrays his sense of self-awareness.
For decades, the primary goal of Iranian statecraft has been regime preservation. The generation of the 1970s, though aging, still aims to pass the torch at home and export it abroad in the form of militant Shia Islam. Iran’s leaders seem to believe that keeping the revolutionary fire alive is their biggest priority.
Simply substitute “Donald Trump” for “Iran” and “MAGA” for “Shia Islam” to see what I mean. Consider whether the following would not equally apply to the January 6, 2021 insurrection or the presence of the U.S. military on the streets of major American cities.
For years, the primary goal of Donald Trump’s statecraft has been regime preservation. The generation of the MAGA movement, though aging, still aims to pass the torch at home and export it abroad in the form of militant authoritarianism. Trump seems to believe that keeping the MAGA revolutionary fire alive is his biggest priority.
I do, however, want to give McKenzie his due. He has produced the political equivalent to one of the most famous explanations for irrational behavior in the sports industry. During the 1994 Winter Olympics in Lillehammer, Norway, NBC producer Don Ohlmeyer was asked about the network’s coverage of the Tonya Harding/Nancy Kerrigan scandal. The specific question involved NBC’s pressure on the U.S. Olympic committee to allow Harding to remain on the American ice skating team. Ohlmeyer’s immediate response, “The answer to all your questions in money.” He elaborated by adding, though unfortunate, broadcast media “often sacrifice the high moral ground for corporate sponsorship and high-profile viewership.”
I have no doubt, if General McKenzie was asked why would Ayatollah Khamenei risk conflict with the clearly more powerful U.S. and Israeli military, the short response would be, “The answer to all your questions is regime preservation.” It explains why Israeli prime minister would drag out a response to the heinous Hamas attack on innocent people on October 7, 2023 for more than two years to delay an investigation into the lapse in Israeli security along the Gaza border. It explains why, following the arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, acting president Delcy Rodriguez, a Maduro protégée, accepted several U.S. demands related to making the country’s oil resources accessible to foreign investors, especially those in the United States.
And it certainly explains why a U.S. president with a 36 percent approval rating would launch a military attack days after news reports that his Justice Department had deleted 53 pages in the Epstein file database of potentially incriminating evidence. And the Tulsi Gabbard-led FBI raid on Fulton County elections office. And support for the SAVE Act which will affect female voters much more than their male counterparts, voters who are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in the 2026 mid-terms. And a call to nationalize state-run elections in response to debunked claims of mass voter fraud in 2020 and 2024.
If this were not the case, 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado would be acting president of Venezuela. Therefore, we should not be surprised when, instead of a representative of the Iranian protesters who Donald Trump claims to have liberated, the next leader of the still Islamic Republic will be someone from the “deep bench” of Khamenei mentees. Someone who will make just enough concessions for Trump to conveniently forget how many protesters the regime has killed and wounded.
Why? To paraphrase Bob Dylan, “the answer, my friend, is regime preservation.”
For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP