The key to successful real estate is, “Location! Location! Location!”

In politics, success is dependent on, “Turnout! Turnout!  Turnout!”

For most of the 21st century, Republicans have been the master of turnout.  They have done so by relying on the following adage from the legal profession.

If you have the facts on your side, pound the facts; if you have the law on your side, pound the law; if you have neither the facts nor the law, pound the table.

The facts are not on the side of the modern Republican party, especially in the age of Trump.  They are anything but the deficit hawks they claim to be.  They pretend to be populists, yet constantly side with the wealthy and corporate interests.  They want you to believe they are the party of “law and order,” yet refuse to condemn conflicts of interest, corruption and the shredding of the Constitution by the leader of their party.

Nor is the law.  Time and time again, GOP governors and state legislatures are rebuked by the courts for attempts to suppress voter participation by populations who do not buy into the false narrative in the previous paragraph.  Of course, the most recent examples are the range of questionable legal maneuvers to overturn the 2020 presidential election.  Fortunately, in response to this attempted rape of Lady Liberty, the courts have affirmed, “When she says NO, she means NO!”

Without facts or the the law in their corner, the GOP has mastered the art of table pounding using “fear” as their hammer.  Fear’s calling cards?  Migrant caravans bringing criminals and disease to the United States, which miraculously disappeared after the 2018 mid-terms (unlike COVID-19 in April).  Cries of “socialism” even though the GOP tax cuts represent the single largest redistribution of income in American history.  Violent protesters threatening helpless suburban housewives.

The irony, however, is the disconnect between the effect of these tactics on a national audience versus the impact on state and local voters.  Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.  Yet Republicans, with the exception of the 2018 mid-terms, made gains in congressional races, governorships and state legislatures.  This success can not be attributed to table banging alone.

Instead, Republicans have assured high turnout among its voter base through ballot referenda.  Take Texas as an example.  In both 2018 and 2020, polls suggested Democratic candidates had a fighting chance to win statewide office.  None succeeded.  How does the GOP governor and legislature help?  By making sure there are ballot propositions which are near and dear to their base.  Consider the following issues on previous ballots.

• Texas law shall not restrict prayer in the public schools.
• Texas law shall not restrict the right to keep and bear arms.
• Parents or legal guardians of public school children under the age of 18 should be the sole decision makers for their children’s health care including contraception and sex education.
• Bail shall be based only on a person’s danger to society and risk of flight, not that person’s ability to pay.

Taken together these four propositions could be branded as the “Lone Star GOP, old white men’s, evangelical bill of rights.”  In a 2020 survey of registered Republicans, each measure received a 85.38 percent or higher favorable rating.  And you can bet the ranch, those voters do not just talk the talk.  They show up on election day to walk the walk.

You might ask, “What does all this have to do with ‘woke’ Democrats?”  This week, Nancy Pelosi may have figured out this same tactic can work in Democrats’ favor.  On Friday, the House passed the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act (MORE) which decriminalizes marijuana at the federal level and provides guidance to cancel low-level federal convictions and arrests related to use.  Not surprisingly, the bill is expected to die in the Senate as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell opposes it.

The timing could not be better.  You want young people to make a difference in the January 5th Georgia senate run-off elections.  Remind them that their vote could be responsible for MORE’s passage or defeat in the next Congress.  Imagine the formation of a “MORE Committee” on every Georgia college campus with signs that read, “You deserve MORE!  Vote Warnock & Ossoff.”

To complete this metaphor, it appears the alarm may have gone off.  The Democrats opened their eyes.  But I am not convinced whether they are fully “woke” or will hit the snooze button and go back to sleep.  A living, breathing House leadership would do the same with net neutrality and student debt.  Then ask the Lincoln Project to create the media campaign that reminds young voters the only thing standing between action on these issues is Mitch McConnell and the GOP senate majority.

That would be a good start.  If successful, it could be a model for taking back control of state houses in 2022 and adding to Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.  Otherwise, Democrats will be perpetually engaged in a table pounding contest with the GOP, a skill they have yet to master.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP