If you ever questioned why the state of Florida has turned deep red after voting twice for Barack Obama, look no further than the state and local Democratic Committees.  Yesterday, consistent with Occam’s razor–all things being equal, the simplest answer is usually correct–I reached the following conclusion.

At 8:30 am EST, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January
• The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent
• Average hourly earnings year over year rose by 4.5 percent, higher than the annual inflation rate of 3.5 percent, signaling a real increase in household buying power.

CNBC analyst Rick Santelli described the report this way.  “The first jobs report jobs, job jobs of ’24 is out and it is… WHOPPER!”

Former Trump economic advisor and FOX business analyst Larry Kudlow piled on, “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession. So was the entire forecasting fraternity.”  After Joe Biden’s comments on the good economic news, Kudlow added, “If I were he, I would be bragging about it too.”

And earlier this week, Donald Trump was so impressed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P being in record territory, he tried to take credit for it. In an all caps post on UN-Truth Social, Trump declared. as usual with no evidence, “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET.  BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.”  For the record, on the last day before Biden was elected president in 2020, the S&P stood at 3,270.  On yesterday’s positive economic news, the S&P rose another 52.42 to close at 4,959.

Yet, on the very day when literally everyone was rejoicing over the unprecedented post-pandemic economic recovery, my congressman Aaron Bean emailed a newsletter in which he claimed, “Biden’s economy has wreaked havoc on American families. In the fight to restore our nation’s prosperity, I’m proud to support the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act..”   His assessment is hard to reconcile with the fact the bill would not have passed without more Democratic than Republican votes and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index hit a two year high in January.

What was our local Democratic Committee’s response to Aaron Bean’s disinformation campaign?  Crickets!!  And they wonder why so many Democrats do not contribute to the Committee or why there is a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters.  Or they are unable to recruit quality candidates to run in local elections.  For me, it’s now personal.  Last week I sent the Nassau County Democratic Party chair a copy of my “If I Did It” post.  I suggested there was a case to be made that Aaron had done very little for district residents and offered to do anything I could to work with them and anyone who would challenge Aaron for the 4th district seat in the House of Representatives.  I’m still waiting for a response.  Even a thank you, but no thank you would suggest they at least bothered to read it.

In 1992, Bill Clinton told us, “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.”  In 2008, Barack Obama rallies opened with songs like Steve Wonder’s “Fired Up! Ready to Go” or will.i.am’s “Yes We Can!”  In 2020, Joe Biden often came on stage to his late son Beau’s favorite, Cold Play’s “Sky Full of Stars.”  Sadly, in 2024, the Florida Democratic Party appears to be marching to the tune of “Sounds of Silence.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Tagline:  Confessions of a Reluctant Congressional Candidate

Every morning I wake up wondering if any Democrat is going to run for Congress in my home district (Florida 4th).  So far, according to BALLOTPEDIA.ORG, there are three announced candidates:

• Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean
• Republican Challenger Robert Alvero
• Unaffiliated Write-in Candidate Todd Schaefer

BALLOTPEDIA asks each candidate to answer a series of questions including, “What do you perceive to be the United States’ greatest challenges as a nation over the next decade?”  Alvero, who appears to have relied too heavily on SpellCheck,  responded:

I perceive that (sic) Unites (sic) States greatest challenge as a nation over the next decade is going to be unite the country in one common cause and keeping the young generation focused on getting the country back up to the (sic) former glory.

Schaefer provides an equally generic but more populous response.

We are at a very divisive time in our country. Both parties are trying to convince us that our neighbor is our enemy to distract from the core rot of the system. If we don’t wake up and realize that we have more in common than they’d have us argue about, more people will be disenfranchised from participating in the system consolidating even more power at the top. The world is watching as this is happening. We’re already losing our influence on the world stage and US foreign policy will lead to our isolation if not worse.

Every announced candidate, including Bean, is eager to tell you what is wrong with America but has offered no solutions.  As the late, great Baltimore Sun journalist and essayist H. L. Mencken once wrote:

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

Maybe it is time for someone to practice “impractical politics.”  That is why my day begins thinking about what that might look like.  The following imaginary announcement of my entry into the race for Representative from the 4th District of Florida presents what I believe is a constructive and compelling argument.

Today, I am announcing my candidacy for Congress from the 4th District of Florida.  To be clear, I am not running against the incumbent Aaron Bean.  The Bean family has a long record of service and commitment to our community.  Aaron is a good and decent person who I consider a friend.  I simply believe he is in the wrong job and that the citizens of the 4th district deserve better.

Like many of you, I get Aaron’s newsletters and press releases.  And every time I end up with the same conclusion.  I know what Aaron is against.  But what is he for and what has he done about it.  This was most clear from his end of year message when he listed his accomplishments from his first year in office.  60,000 responses to constituent letters.  432 constituent meetings and town halls.  Telephone Town Halls with more than 40,000 constituents.  And through constituent services, he helped taxpayers recover over a million dollars in benefits, something every Congressman is expected to do.

You immediately realize what is NOT on his list of accomplishments.  A single piece of enacted legislation.  According to Article I, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution that is the main purpose of Congress.  All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives.

Think about that.  Aaron Bean is one of 435 individuals empowered to do the Nation’s business.  To solve problems and create opportunities for the American people.  He and his Republican colleagues have been quick to identify problems and blame the opposition, but have nothing to show for solving them.  Let me give you a few examples.

How many of you are concerned about what Aaron refers to as unprotected borders on his website?  Guess what?  So am I.  And a bipartisan coalition of Senators has proposed the strongest response to that concern.  And what has been Aaron’s response.  Rather than jump on this opportunity, he has sided with Speaker Mike Johnson to block House consideration of the Senate bill because they would prefer to make the border a campaign issue for Donald Trump rather than address the problem.

How many of you are concerned about the safety of your children when they go to school or a movie or a concert or to their church, synagogue or mosque?  So am I.  Aaron wants you to believe mental health, not guns, is the issue.  Let’s assume he is correct.  What has he done to ensure that a mentally ill individual who cannot pass a background check to purchase a firearm from a licensed dealer can immediately go on the internet or find a private seller who will make that transaction.  I know the overwhelming majority of 4th District residents, including gun owners and NRA members, support universal background checks.  I will vote to make that the law.

How many of you think gas prices, groceries and other consumer goods are too high?  So do I.  And what has Aaron and his GOP colleagues done to solve this.  Nothing.  Instead they claim they will drill, drill, drill even though energy production last year was the highest in U.S. history.  You know what else is the highest in U.S. history.  Oil company profits.  And yet Congress continues to subsidize the oil and gas industry to the tune of $440 billion.  You know what has not increased.  Health care.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average price of health care in the U.S. increased by just 0.5 percent in 2023.  And what is the response from the GOP House.  Repeal the Affordable Care Act.  As your congressman I will ensure the future of ACA and challenge subsidies to industries that do not need them.

How many of you are concerned that a pregnant woman has to bleed out in a hospital parking lot until she is close enough to dying before her doctor will risk his license or prosecution to save her?  I am too.  And what is Aaron’s response.  On his website, he decries, and I quote, “federal overreach by a government attempting to tell us that they know what is best.”  But that seems not to apply to a woman’s reproductive health. Or a 10 year child who has been raped by her stepfather.  I will work with members of both parties to ensure that health decisions remain between a woman, her family and her physician, not a state legislature or court.

How many of you are concerned about a loss of respect for law and order?  Again, so I am.  Aaron Bean says he is on his website.  Yet, on January 21, he endorsed Donald Trump for President.  A man who says he is willing to suspend the U.S. Constitution if necessary.  A man who suggested the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff should be executed because he did his job, easing concerns by his Chinese counterpart on January 6.  A man found liable by a jury of his peers for sexual assault and defamation.  A man who admits he withheld classified documents and waved them in front of individuals who have no security clearance.  A man who thinks the President of the United States should have complete immunity from prosecution even when he “crosses the line.”  And cross the line he has.  Ignoring the 60 state and federal courts which told him he lost the 2020 election.  Pressuring state election officials to falsify vote counts.  Supporting a plot to substitute fake electors for those duly elected by the voters in six states.  Inciting a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol during the constitution process of counting the electoral votes.  And most egregious, watching and re-watching his supporters attack and injure over 150 law enforcement officers on January 6.

How many of you are concerned about a decline in global respect for the United States?  I wish I knew where my Congressman stands on this issue but he seldom talks about it.  Does he believe after two years of holding off and weakening Vladimir Putin’s army, we should abandon Ukraine?  Does he think Israel can ever have peace while Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister?  Is he concerned that China will see America’s inaction on these fronts as a license to take over Taiwan?  Does he believe the outcomes in each of these regions has no effect on national security?  There are no easy answers, but silence is not an option.  I look forward to discussing America’s role in a complex geopolitical environment and seeking solutions which make the world a more peaceful place for all people of good will.

During this campaign and as your congressman, I too will answer your letters,  I will hold town halls and when needed I will advocate for each of you when you do not get the government benefits you are entitled to.  But more importantly,  I will press for solutions through legislation and oversight to the issues that affect every one of the 800,000 residents of the 4th District.  Why?  Because Article I, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution and the voters will have given me the legislative power to do exactly that.

Thank you.

Why then, rather than say “If I Did It,” JUST DO IT.  Because no one should jump into a campaign unless he or she is prepared to fully commit to the effort.  You owe that to your supporters, especially donors, and to yourself. I am not sure I can make that promise.

I am more than willing to defer to a younger, more energetic Democratic candidate who I hope would pick up on these themes, yet no one to date has stepped forward.  And when one does, I will be there to help in any way I can.  You know where to find me.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

“You talkin’ to me?” 

That is how I felt this morning when Joe Scarborough suggested absolutely nobody believes the Biden campaign relishes a general election contest with Nikki Haley.  

The Biden campaign is trying to pretend she is not there.  They’re saying the general election’s begun.  Pretend last night didn’t happen.  Forget what Nikki Haley is saying.  Why?  Well, it’s very obvious.  They want to run against the crazy guy.  Who do you think, who on this planet, other than extreme MAGAs think, believes Joe Biden wants to run against [Haley]?  Nobody!  Nobody!

I do, Joe.  You may be right about the Biden campaign.  But here is why Joe Biden should see a race against Nikki Haley as an opportunity, not only to win re-election, but also to make true conservatives and mainstream Republicans realize that their party needs to be reconstructed from the ground up.

Let’s start with a few facts.

1. One of the reasons, if not the most important, for Trump’s third run for president is his many legal problems.  His hope is that a Trump appointed attorney general will make all of the federal cases go away and make life miserable for Letitia James and Fani Willis.
2. As long as he is a candidate for president, Trump can make the case (though untrue) that he is being persecuted by a weaponized Biden Justice Department.  All he needs is one juror in each of the criminal cases to believe him.
3. To make that argument he must continue to run even if he does not win the Republican nomination.
4. Entrance polls during the Iowa caucuses suggest that half of Republicans who cast ballots on January 15 identify as MAGA.  The number was closer to 25 percent last night in New Hampshire according to the exit polls.
5. In his victory tirade last night, Trump predicted Haley would lose to Biden in the general election.

What should this tell us?  Trump will not take a Nikki Haley nomination lying down.  If he felt humiliated losing to Joe Biden, imagine the outrage from failing to secure the nomination of a party he supposedly controls.  If Haley does win in November, the Trump myth (“Only I can do it.) suffers one more embarrassing moment.

There are three ways to make sure she does not become president.  Launch a write-in campaign.  (“If Sleepy Joe Biden can do it, certainly I can.”) Run as an independent.  Tell his voters they should stay home (a la the Georgia Senate run-offs in 2020).  In a previous blog, I suggested approximately 17 percent of GOP voters are “Forever Trump” loyalists and will do whatever he asks them to do.  That is the percent of Trump’s 2020 vote over his 2016 total.  In other words, these are new Republicans Trump is largely responsible for bringing into the GOP tent.

The media and many Democratic pundits spend a lot of time focusing on the impact of third party candidates on Biden’s chances of winning.  All of the major polling companies have created hypotheticals in which the options include Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornell West and Jill Stein.  There have also been a few polls based on the speculation Joe Manchin will run on the No Labels ticket.  You know what NO ONE has tested.  A three-way race with Biden, Haley and Trump. If my 17 percent estimate in anywhere close to correct, Biden could win even the least competitive state with 40 percent of the vote. 

Based on Biden’s 2020 percentage in each state, he would have a better than even chance to carry Alaska, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.  In which case, Biden would win 449 electoral votes compared to a total of 89 for Trump or Haley.  That would be a hard reality to spin, but of course Trump will declare Biden and Haley colluded to defeat him.  The question is whether the Republicans who still reside on Earth One will finally board the escape pods to avoid another MAGA Starship implosion.

It also makes life worse for every other Republican running for office who will face the following dilemma.  If both Trump and Haley are on the ballot, a GOP candidate for House or Senate will be forced to make a choice.  And the only impact that will have will be to alienate supporters of one of the two “conservative” opponents.  It gets worse if Trump tells his loyalists to stay home.  Consider the following data provided by BALLOTPEDIA.COM.

• In 2022, 85 congressional races (ten Senate and 75 House) were decided by ten percentage points or fewer.
• Of those, Republicans won four Senate seats (WI, NC, OH, AK) and 30 house seats.
• A defection of just 6.21 percent of GOP voters would have flipped three of the Senate races.

So, here is my question for Joe Scarborough.

Who do you think, who on this planet, believes a man who has already tried to delegitimize the Constitution, the electoral process, the rule of law and our system of justice would hesitate to delegitimize the Republican Party to serve his own interests?  Nobody!  Nobody!

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

A woman and two children drowned in the Rio Grande on Friday night in Eagle Pass, Texas, after U.S. border agents were prevented from responding, federal officials said Saturday.

In a statement, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said U.S. Border Patrol agents were made aware of the migrants’ distress by the Mexican government but were unable to enter the area from the U.S. side after Texas National Guard troops, under the direction of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, prevented them from doing so.

~Dennis Romero/NBC News

Excuse me, but isn’t Greg Abbott the one who claimed to be pro-life when he signed the most draconian anti-abortion legislation in the country post-Dobbs. Governor, how is the above incident “pro-life?”

This tragic event occurred one day following the latest email from my favorite “do nothing” U.S. representative Aaron Bean (R-FL4).  He posted the following:

This week, I took to the House floor to refute President Biden’s false claim that Republicans are to blame for the border crisis. It’s this administration’s open border policies that have directly resulted in the invasion happening along the southern border.

Americans know the truth. Our southern border remains open for one reason and one reason only: because President Biden refuses to shut it down.

If only the congressman would spend less time watching (and appearing on) Fox News and read any analysis about the increase in global migration.  He might learn the “flood” of migrants at our southern border is the result of lingering economic impacts from the pandemic, climate change and political persecution.  And as he tends to do, he once again equated talk with action.  Here are the three actions he took in response to what he calls an “invasion.”

• Made a speech on the House floor.
• Sent a letter to New York City mayor Eric Adams.
• Appeared on Fox News to “discuss [Homeland Security] Secretary Mayorka’s dereliction of duty.”

What he did not do was propose an alternative to the bipartisan efforts in the Senate to address the issue, a compromise he opposes.

There is no question the border situation needs attention, but the real issue becomes clearer when viewed through a historical perspective.  Although the number of immigrants seeking entry into the United States may be at an all-time high, the total is a significantly lower percentage of the current U.S. population.  In 1907, 1,004,756 immigrants were processed through Ellis Island at a time when the total U.S. population was only 87 million.  In other words, America absorbed immigrants who made up an increase of 1.15 percent of its current population.  In contrast, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports just over 2.5 million migrants sought entry at the southern border in 2023 when the total U.S. population was 335.9 million for what would amount to an absorption rate of 0.74 percent.

On a more personal note, both my paternal and maternal grandparents came through Ellis Island during the early 1900s.  They were seeking refuge from the pogroms, organized efforts to eliminate or expel ethic and religious minorities, particularly Jews, from Russia and eastern Europe.  They did not speak English.  As documented by Lesley Kennedy on HISTORY.COM, over 80 percent of the arrivals at Ellis Island were processed and released within a few hours.  And less than two percent were denied entry.  Which raises some obvious questions.

• What is so different about the aspiring immigrants  at the southern border versus those, like my ancestors, who entered the U.S. via Ellis Island?
• What criteria were used to determine eligibility that resulted in only two percent being denied entry?
• How could processing, without the benefit of modern technology, take only hours when today there is a backlog which can delay disposition of asylum requests for weeks, months and even years?

Kennedy suggests efficiencies were gained by a staggered system of sorting and screening.  First, immigrants arriving by boat provided basic information to officials when boarding the ship in Europe.  Upon arrival, two lines were formed, one with women and children, the other with men.  Medical examinations for communicable diseases were performed by military surgeons and individuals with health issues were quarantined.   The others were then questioned to verify the information provided on the ship manifest.  Only those with red flags were detained pending appeals.

This is not rocket science.  A similar system could be built with cooperation by the Mexican and other Latin American countries.  Screening of immigrants for disease, criminal background and drug smuggling (issues that are frequently raised by fearmongers) could be addressed before asylum seekers reach the border.  It would cost money, but that too could be addressed with a little creativity.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, no bastion of liberal orthodoxy, claims on its website: 

America has grown and thrived because we attract and welcome the hardest working and most talented people to our shores. They come here to pursue their dreams and build their lives. However, today’s immigration system falls far short of meeting the needs of our society, our economy, our businesses, and our workers. The U.S. Chamber works for smart immigration policy reforms so the U.S. can boost economic growth, create jobs, and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship.

If this is true, one can imagine the Chamber and pro-business Republicans supporting an annual fee for each non-citizen employee a company hires who holds a green card or work visa to create an Ellis Island like system to expedite processing of aspiring immigrants.  This is, of course, if they really want to solve the problem, unlike House members like Aaron Bean who just want to bitch about it.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP