All posts by Dr. ESP

HARRIS-ment

One of the great advantages of having worked at a major U.S. foundation focused on entrepreneurship, teaching in a business school and being a member of the senior staff at the National Governors Association was the opportunity to make friends with individuals outside my usual sphere of amigos and acquaintances.  Despite the political and ideological differences, I held many of them in high esteem long after our professional association expired.  Which makes it all that much harder to understand their unwillingness to acknowledge the existential threat posed to American and global democracy by Donald Trump.

It was easier to understand in 2016, before Trump ever sat behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office.  Trump promised a lot and delivered on two items of importance to this audience:  lower tax rates and business deregulation.  On January 20, 2017, concerns about Trump’s authoritarian goals were speculative.  Once he took office, I assumed the wishful thinkers who thought being president would temper Trump’s worst inclinations would have a change of heart.  I was wrong.  Many ignored the warning signs–Charlottesville, Helsinki, Ukraine, his Lafayette Park response to Black Lives Matter, quack Covid treatments and calls for his political opponents to be jailed two weeks before the 2020 election.  Not to mention the 30,000+ lies.  Fortunately, just enough of them voted for Joe Biden or sat out the election to ensure Trump’s defeat by more than seven million votes, enough to carry six of the seven battleground states.

One would think, based on Trump’s post-election and out-of-office behavior, the choice this election cycle would be easier.  But anecdotal feedback from my conservative friends and national reporting from gatherings such as Davos 2024, suggest many of those who saw Trump as a threat in 2020 are more concerned about Biden four years later.  Even when one of their concerns proves to be unfounded, they shift to a new one.  Conversative economists predicted a post-Covid recession was unavoidable.  WRONG!  NATO was weaker than ever.  WRONG!  Biden was too progressive, even socialist.  WRONG!  It is hard to make that case when 14 million new jobs were created in the first three years of Biden’s administration, the unemployment rate is at a 50 year low, major corporations are besting Wall Street earnings estimates for the most recent reporting quarter and the Dow and S&P averages are at all time highs.  

Time to find a new reason not to vote for Biden, and of course. they did.  Here is how one friend explained it.  “I would feel better about Biden if Kamala was not the VP.”  This implies two things.  One, Biden will either die or become incapacitated before the end of a second term though there is no evidence that is the case.  Two, Harris is too much of a risk to trust as president.  My friend and others who share this opinion might want to reconsider based on their previous willingness to take an even greater chance in the past.  I am, of course, referring to 2008 when, I will bet the farm, many of them voted for John McCain.

Before running for president, McCain had been diagnosed with melanoma four times, the last coming in 2000.  Although there is no direct connection between these diagnoses and the glioblastoma tumor which eventually took his live, the melanoma removed in 2000 was Stage IIa compared to the most serious Stage IV.  Articles in recent medical journals suggest the survival rate 10 years after diagnosis is 65 percent.  In other words, if McCain had taken office in 2009, there was a 35 percent chance he would not survive the first two years of his first term.  Neither Democrats nor the press made this a major issue during the campaign.  Of course, Republicans had no concerns about their nominee’s health.

For argument’s sake, knowing McCain’s odds, you would think those who fear a Harris secession would feel the same way about his choice of a running mate.  Who did he choose?  Oh, Sarah Palin.  The governor of a state with less than 700,000 population at the time, no D.C. or foreign policy experience and unable to answer the questions, “Where do you get your news?  What magazines do you read?”  Compare that to Harris who has served as attorney general of the most populous state in the country, a U.S. Senator and a member of the Judiciary Committee, and has been able, as vice-president, to learn the job from inside-out.  Plus, she has Joe Biden with all his knowledge and experience as a mentor.  Palin’s top advisor when she ran for Alaska governor was John Bitney, described by The New Yorker as someone who “…is from Wasilla, Palin’s home town, and has known her since junior high school, where the both played in the band.” (Not that there’s anything wrong with that!)

Instead of exuding hypocrisy, maybe it’s time for the anti-Harris crowd to look for the next reason to sit out an election which has a decent, pro-democracy, rule of law old man (yes, he knows he is old) who has guided the country through what even the most conservative economists say is the “unprecedented” success of stemming inflation without a recession. Or a pro-Russian, wannabe dictator and insurrectionist who has already been found liable of sexual assault, defamation (twice) and business fraud.  And when it comes to his legal woes, as Donald Trump, Jr.’s fiancée Kimberly Guilfoyle reminded us at the 2020 Republican National Convention, “The best is yet to come!”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

In Case You Forgot

Every Super Bowl has a back story.  Sometimes, that behind the scenes drama is so compelling, the event is referred to by a nickname.  When brothers Jim and John, head coaches of the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, respectively, faced off in Super Bowl XLVII (2013) it was tagged “the Harbaugh Bowl.”  And each annual contest between the NFL’s best is memorialized in a single image.  Last night’s game was no exception.

Welcome to the “Nepo Baby Bowl.” For those unfamiliar with the term, it refers to celebrities who are born to famous parents with similar careers.  Among the most famous is Gwyneth Paltrow, daughter of actress Blythe Danner and director/producer Bruce Paltrow.  Or Martin Sheen’s sons, Charlie and Emilio Estevez.  The field during Super Bowl LVIII was littered (pun intended) with nepo babies.

  • Eventual MVP Patrick Mahomes is the offspring of former New York Mets pitcher Pat Mahomes.
  • 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey learned the game from his father Ed, who was an All-American receiver at Stanford University and spent 13 seasons in the NFL including three Super Bowl championships.
  • And of course, there is 49er head coach Kyle Shanahan who is following in his father Mike’s footsteps.  Among the storylines for Sunday’s game was, “Would this be the day when son Kyle joins his dad as head coach of a Super Bowl champion?”

But, as Arlo Guthrie would say, that’s not what I came here to talk about.  Instead, I want to go back to the defining image during last night’s broadcast.  If the game itself was of primary interest, the outcome might be captured by one of three photographs.  For some, it was the moment Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal blocked Jake Moody’s extra point.  Or when a punt inadvertently struck 49er Darrel Luter’s foot which led to a Chiefs touchdown on the next play. Or Mahomes’ three-yard touchdown pass in overtime to relatively unknown Mecole Hardman which sealed the Chiefs’ victory.

Maybe you tuned in for the entertainment provided by a host of performers before the game and culminating in Usher’s halftime performance, a soul and rap montage, reminiscent of an earlier time when Dick Clark would tour the United States with his “Caravan of Stars.”  For the record, I find the halftime extravaganza, regardless who headlines the performance, a great opportunity to start solving the Sunday New York Times crossword puzzle.  To the chagrin of 49er fans, once again, the extended mid-game break turned out to be a momentum changer.

Finally, no discussion of Super Bowl LVIII would be complete without a reference to Tay-Tay and Kel-Kel.  For those who bet on the over/under, during the game, Taylor Swift appeared on-screen 12 times for a total of 53 seconds.  But the main event was the couple’s on-field reunion after the trophy ceremony.

Even Joe Biden’s deep state could not have pulled off such a complete American experience, though he trolled the MAGA/QAnon snowflakes with the Tweet, “Just like we drew it up.”  But the moment and image that truly represented the America we so often think is in the rearview mirror occurred before the kickoff.  It was a brief shot of Chief’s defensive tackle Chris Jones during Reba McIntyre’s rendition of The Star Spangled Banner (below).

Jones is no “nepo baby.”  He was born in Houston, Mississippi, the son of a furniture factory worker.  According to his profile on the Chiefs’ website, when Jones was in the fourth grade, his father was jailed for nearly a decade after a DUI arrest.  Despite the odds, Jones proved his football credentials first at Houston High School, then Mississippi State University and as a second-round draft choice of the Kansas City Chiefs.

One can only imagine the pent-up emotions which produced that tear.  Having made his mother and father proud.  Gratitude to those who contributed to his development as a football player and a selfless member of his community.  Remembering the bedroom at his grandmother’s home he shared with 10 other family members while he was in high school.  Or the physical contrast between Allegiant Stadium and his humble surroundings as a child.

At a time when so many Americans question whether the United States is still the land of opportunity, ask Chris Jones.  Recalling his own journey, he would likely echo comedian Yakov Smirnoff’s tag line, “Is this a great country or what?”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

 

Random Thoughts 2/8/24

You are probably getting tired of my repeating a favorite quote from Edward R. Murrow.  “The obscure we see eventually.  The completely obvious, it seems take longer.”  This adage. however, is more apt than ever in the past 48 hours.

NOT ROCKET JUSTICE

It is 10:03 am on February 8, 2024.  The U.S. Supreme Court has just begun oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, by which Donald Trump is asking the Court to overturn the ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court making him ineligible to be on the state’s primary ballot for having engaged in an insurrection in accordance with Amendment 14, Section 3 of the Constitution.  This morning, there was a lot of handwringing by legal scholars and political pundits about the outcome, but equally important, the impact on a Supreme Court that has lost favor with an increasing majority of Americans. 

University of Alabama law professor Joyce Vance explained the Court will likely further alienate half the population regardless of which course they choose.  Referring to removing Trump from the Colorado ballot and likely other states, she said, “You’re damned if you do; damned if you don’t.  In these cases, your best bet is to do the right thing.”  

But sometime RIGHT can also be EXPEDIANT.  There is, I believe, a simple solution.  Although the justices are hearing oral arguments today, I am sure they are already well versed in both sides’ claims and could issue an opinion this afternoon.  But I suggest they wait until Wednesday and give the nation a Valentine.  Here is why.

The 11th District Court of Appeals, which unanimously ruled Trump has no immunity as a citizen to criminal prosecution, gave Trump’s legal counsel until Monday to file an appeal to the Supreme Court.  No doubt “last minute Donald” will have his attorney’s file the appeal at 4:59 pm on 4/12.  The Supremes will likely give Jack Smith the same five days to respond.  The already completed appeal will be filed at 10:00 am on 2/13.  The justices will take the rest of Tuesday to have clerks review the filings for any surprises and to prepare a final draft of the Colorado decision.

On 2/14 the Supreme Court announces it has made two decisions.  In the case of Trump v. Anderson, they rule in Trump’s favor on a technicality which I have always said is a hurdle. Lacking a conviction of engaging in or providing aid and comfort to an insurrection, the Court unanimously rules the Amendment 14-3 is not self executing.  However, the Court does believe that the American public has a right to know if a candidate has conspired to overthrow a fair and secure election of the nation’s chief executive.  Therefore, the Court, based on the unimpeachable opinion issued by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, denies certiorari in the immunity case.  Furthermore, the original stay in this case is permanently lifted and Judge Tanya Chutkan is authorized to proceed with scheduling and conducting the United States v. Trump trial with all deliberate speed.

Happy Valentines Day!  Here is half of a candy “I LUV U” heart for everyone.

THE GHOST OF SADDAM HUSSEIM

This morning, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass laid out Iran’s motives for backing and funding numerous terrorist militias in the Middle East.  Haass claimed the Israel/Hamas conflict offered a window for Iran to solidify its influence in several Middle East countries including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.  The broadcast also included an interview with Kurdistan prime minister Masrour Barzani who feared if the Iran government forces a U.S. retreat from the region, the Kurds, who have been an American ally in the fight against ISIS, will pay the price.

If only we had a nation that could counterbalance Iran’s position in the region.  Oh wait!  We did!  It was Iraq until George W. Bush and Dick Cheney preemptively overthrew the government on false pretenses.  And we, as well as our Kurdish allies, are stilling paying the price.

ROTARY FIRING SQUAD

In a recent blog, I mentioned that, at one time, I was a member of my local Rotary Club along with Congressman Aaron Bean (R-FL 4).  At the heart of membership is the motto “Service Above Self” and the Rotary Four Way Test.

  1. Is it the TRUTH?
  2. Is it FAIR to all concerned?
  3. Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?
  4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?

Too bad Aaron does not believe the Four Way Test applies to his service in the House of Representatives.  He supports Trump and “the big lie.”  In August 2023, the Jacksonville NBC affiliate reported Bean called Trump’s indictments unfair.  He is quoted as saying, “We always took pride in that there was a blind justice in our country, but it appears that Lady Justice now is peeking from her blindfold, and checking, what’s the letter behind your name before I take, I seek justice?” If justice was blind, Trump would have been treated exactly like Reality Winner, the NSA translator who spent four years in prison for leaking a single document. So much for the TRUTH.

On Tuesday, he voted to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas although the resolution drafted by Majorie Taylor Greene identifies no high crimes or misdemeanors as required by the U.S. Constitution.  When someone does not play by the rules, how FAIR is that?

Finally. this week he joined House Speaker Mike Johnson and an overwhelming majority of GOP senators and representatives who killed a bipartisan national security bill, despite support by the Border Patrol Union.  Why?  Because Joe Biden and Democrats might get some credit for addressing the issue.  And that would hurt Trump’s chances of re-election.  I guess Aaron thinks the ALL in the four-way test is not Americans who say immigration is a major concern, Ukrainians who are fighting to save their democracy, Israelis trying to crush Hamas, humanitarian aid to innocent Palestinians in Gaza or our Pacific allies who face a growing military threat from China and North Korea.  In this case, Aaron’s definition of ALL is Donald Trump and his standing in his own political party.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Occam’s Razor

If you ever questioned why the state of Florida has turned deep red after voting twice for Barack Obama, look no further than the state and local Democratic Committees.  Yesterday, consistent with Occam’s razor–all things being equal, the simplest answer is usually correct–I reached the following conclusion.

At 8:30 am EST, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported:

  • Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January
  • The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent
  • Average hourly earnings year over year rose by 4.5 percent, higher than the annual inflation rate of 3.5 percent, signaling a real increase in household buying power.

CNBC analyst Rick Santelli described the report this way.  “The first jobs report jobs, job jobs of ’24 is out and it is… WHOPPER!”

Former Trump economic advisor and FOX business analyst Larry Kudlow piled on, “I was wrong about the slowdown and the recession. So was the entire forecasting fraternity.”  After Joe Biden’s comments on the good economic news, Kudlow added, “If I were he, I would be bragging about it too.”

And earlier this week, Donald Trump was so impressed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P being in record territory, he tried to take credit for it. In an all caps post on UN-Truth Social, Trump declared. as usual with no evidence, “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET.  BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.”  For the record, on the last day before Biden was elected president in 2020, the S&P stood at 3,270.  On yesterday’s positive economic news, the S&P rose another 52.42 to close at 4,959.

Yet, on the very day when literally everyone was rejoicing over the unprecedented post-pandemic economic recovery, my congressman Aaron Bean emailed a newsletter in which he claimed, “Biden’s economy has wreaked havoc on American families. In the fight to restore our nation’s prosperity, I’m proud to support the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act..”   His assessment is hard to reconcile with the fact the bill would not have passed without more Democratic than Republican votes and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index hit a two year high in January.

What was our local Democratic Committee’s response to Aaron Bean’s disinformation campaign?  Crickets!!  And they wonder why so many Democrats do not contribute to the Committee or why there is a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters.  Or they are unable to recruit quality candidates to run in local elections.  For me, it’s now personal.  Last week I sent the Nassau County Democratic Party chair a copy of my “If I Did It” post.  I suggested there was a case to be made that Aaron had done very little for district residents and offered to do anything I could to work with them and anyone who would challenge Aaron for the 4th district seat in the House of Representatives.  I’m still waiting for a response.  Even a thank you, but no thank you would suggest they at least bothered to read it.

In 1992, Bill Clinton told us, “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.”  In 2008, Barack Obama rallies opened with songs like Steve Wonder’s “Fired Up! Ready to Go” or will.i.am’s “Yes We Can!”  In 2020, Joe Biden often came on stage to his late son Beau’s favorite, Cold Play’s “Sky Full of Stars.”  Sadly, in 2024, the Florida Democratic Party appears to be marching to the tune of “Sounds of Silence.”

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP

Deprog101 Challenge #1

[Blogger’s NOTE:  The latest Quinnipiac poll, in which Joe Biden jumped to a six point lead (50-44) is evidence Donald Trump is stuck at a ceiling in the mid-40s while Biden’s previous lows were a floor.  Additionally, Trump’s behavior in and out of the courtroom has alienated women and independents increasing Biden’s margin among these all important constituencies.  Based on this trend, I thought it might be time to take a break and explore the less serious side of the current political discourse.]

Back in the days of young adult mystery series such as Nancy Drew and the Hardy Boys, there were also the tales of an adventurous young scientist whose stories involved space ships, ray guns and other futuristic inventions.  An endearing feature of the Tom Swift novels was author Victor Appleton’s use of adverbs or synonyms for the word “said” to enhance the characters’ dialogue.  A terse response might include the phrase, “Tom said quickly.”  Or when he hesitated, Appleton would add, “Tom stammered.”

In response, fans of Appleton’s work created a parlor game which became known as “Tom Swifties.”  The goal was to emulate the author’s style with the addition of a pun.  The following is the oft-cited classic example.

“If you want me, I shall be in the attic,” Tom said loftily.

Tom Swifties gained popularity following a May 13, 1963 article in Time magazine which included a contest where readers were encouraged to share their own creations.  Below are a couple of my all-time favorites.

“What our team needs is a home run hitter,” Tom said ruthlessly.

“We just struck oil,” Tom gushed.

Based on the GOP’s obsession with another Swift, I wondered if it might be time to revive the pastime, this time under the banner “Taylor Swifties.”  Consider the following examples.

“I think it’s time to put Senator Grassley from Iowa out to pasture,” Taylor chuckled.

“I’ll take my fans over his supporters any day of the year,” Taylor trumpeted.

“I’m pretty sure there is a deep state conspiracy behind the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run, although I have no evidence,” PizzaGate theorist Jack Posbiec  fumbled.

To enter the Deprog101 Challenge #1, submit your “Taylor Swifties” as comments to this post.  “The winner will receive a free life-time subscription to this blog,” Dr. ESP said frugally.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP