Occam’s Tragedy

When faced with competing explanations for the same phenomenon, the simplest is likely the correct one.

Occam’s Razor (Conceptuality.com)

The moment I learned that the suspect in yesterday’s tragic shooting of two National Guard soldiers in Washington, D.C. had come to America from Afghanistan, I turned to my wife and laid out the following scenario behind the event.

1. He probably worked with either the United States military, diplomatic or humanitarian personnel stationed in Afghanistan following 9/11.
2. He fled Afghanistan following the evacuation of U.S. forces in 2021 and the fall of the U.S.-supported Ashraf Ghani government.
3. He sought asylum in the U.S. following reports the Taliban government had executed Afghan nationals who cooperated with the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan.
4. He entered the U.S. under Operation Allies Welcome, “a Biden administration program that evacuated and resettled tens of thousands of Afghans after the U.S. withdrawal from the country.” (Source: AP News)
5. He probably felt safe in the U.S. following the November 2023 initiation by the Department of Homeland Security of Temporary Protective Status (TPS) for Afghans.
6. TPS for Afghans was suspended in May 2025 by the Trump administration.
7. Since January 2025, ICE has aggressively targeted Afghans, including those who entered the U.S. under Operation Allies Welcome.

Before I continue, let me make one thing perfectly clear. I do not condone violence of any kind. However, there is a significant difference between condoning something and understanding it. Especially when the drip, drip, drip of new information appears to confirm some, if not all, of the above assumptions immediately following this tragedy.

This morning, the Associated Press reported:

Rahmanullah Laknwal (the detained suspect) has been living in Bellingham, Washington, about 79 miles (127 kilometers) north of Seattle, with his wife and five children, said his former landlord, Kristina Widman.

Prior to his 2021 arrival in the United States, the suspect worked with the U.S. government, including the CIA, “as a member of a partner force in Kandahar,” John Ratcliffe, the spy agency’s director, said in a statement. He did not specify what work Lakamal did, but said the relationship “ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation” of U.S. servicemembers from Afghanistan.

There is still a lot we don’t know. Was Laknwal gainfully employed during his four years in the U.S.? Had he been charged with any criminal activity during that time? Was he aware of anecdotal stories such as the experience of one ICE-detained Afghan refugee documented in an October 14 article in the Washington Post? The author of this account, John Woodrow Cox, wrote:

If, and this is a BIG if, Laknwal had been living in the U.S. the past four years as a law-abiding and productive resident of Bellingham, Washington, the tragedy that unfolded on 17th and I Street in D.C. yesterday afternoon was avoidable. Without the following actions by the Trump administration, the National Guard would not have been on D.C. streets and Laknwal would not have feared for his life and the lives of his family if deported back to Afghanistan.

UPDATE 11/28/2025: Another piece of the puzzle. “According to a federal law enforcement dossier seen by Reuters, Laknwal applied for asylum in December 2024 and was approved on April 23, three months after Trump took office. Laknwal had no known criminal history, according to the dossier. He had no documented record of traveling in or out of the U.S. since his arrival in 2021, and he had imported a shipment of household goods from Afghanistan in February.” (Source: Reuters)

First, Donald Trump, during his first term in office, negotiated the withdrawal agreement which assured the Taliban would return to power. Second, Trump either did not appreciate or simply ignored the risk many Afghans took to support the U.S. personnel and mission in-country following 9/11. Third, Trump’s implementation of mass deportations, contrary to his campaign pledge to focus only on criminals, led to his suspension of TPS for Afghan refugees who had served the U.S. honorably. And finally, deployment of the National Guard in support of his mass deportation policy created a target that never should have been there.

Not unexpectedly, Donald Trump is already trying to identify scapegoats for his succession of policy failures. On social media Trump called for a re-vetting of all Afghan refugees who entered the U.S. during the Biden administration. If Laknwal was collaborating with the CIA, that agency would have used a more stringent vetting process than that used for a garden-variety immigrant. Surely, ICE and Homeland Security have access to the results of Laknwal’s vetting.

UPDATE 11/28/2025: Yesterday, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem made the following UNTRUE statement in support of Trump’s scapegoating this tragedy. She described Laknwal as “…one of the many unvetted, mass paroled into the United States under Operation Allies Welcome on September 8, 2021, under the Biden Administration.” Her account was refuted by none other than (drum roll) Kristi Noem. “According to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, there have been 8,000 such individuals since Trump took office. Noem and Patel have both suggested in recent congressional testimony that the administration had carefully scrutinized all of them.” (Source: ABC News)

More importantly, during the social media video, Trump added, “If they can’t love our country, we don’t want them.” Maybe, just maybe, Rahmanullah Laknwal loved America enough to risk his life helping the war effort in his native country. Maybe he loved America enough to trust, having risked his life as a U.S. collaborator, the U.S. government would appreciate his service and, in turn, grant asylum from retribution by the Taliban. Maybe, that is, until the Trump administration radicalized him by suspending Temporary Protection Status and deporting other Afghans who believed America would never turn its back on them.

I recognize this is pure speculation until there is more information. But when points 1-7 (above) are fact, Occam’s razor becomes a useful utensil.

For what it’s worth.
Dr. ESP